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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
SRE — frequently asked questions
Is Sempra overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-03, SRE looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 78,4 USD versus our fair value of 91,1 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 124 USD. That implies roughly 16.3% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, gives SRE a fair value of 91,1 USD and a potential value of 124 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Sempra's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy SRE now?
Our latest published rating for SRE, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Buy. Sempra looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 78,4 USD versus fair value of 91,1 USD; potential value is 124 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for SRE?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-03 documents Sempra's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is SRE's rating?
Our latest published rating for SRE, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 91,1 USD, the potential value of 124 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (78,4 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyBuy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$78.38
Giá trị hợp lý
$91.14
Giá trị tiềm năng
$124.47
Tính đến
2026-10-02
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
The biggest opportunity is the accelerated inflection of free cash flow and valuation multiple expansion as Sempra transitions past its peak capital deployment cycle ($10,612M in FY2025).
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Uninsured wildfire liability claims exceeding $2.0B or CPUC cost disallowances on grid hardening capital investments.
We initiate coverage on Sempra (NYSE: SRE) with a Buy rating and a 12-month intrinsic fair value of $91.14 per share, implying 16.28% upside from the October 2, 2026 share price of $78.38. Sempra combines a high-moat California regulated utility core that generates over 92% of top-line revenue with long-term contracted cross-border LNG export infrastructure. Trading at a 14.00% discount to fair value and an attractive 14.51x forward P/E multiple, Sempra discounts large-cap utility peers while offering superior forward EPS growth of 8.5% to 8.9%.
Sempra's primary economic engine is Sempra California, encompassing Southern California Gas Company and San Diego Gas & Electric Company. In FY2025, Sempra California produced $11,454M of Sempra's $12,418M in consolidated revenues (92.24%) and $3,253M in operating income. Under the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) regulatory framework, revenue decoupling mechanisms sever utility revenue from volumetric energy consumption. This framework guarantees rate base return recovery for prudently incurred safety and modernization investments, creating a durable narrow economic moat protected by state-sanctioned utility franchises.4,6,7
The company is currently executing a major transformation build phase, deploying $10,612M in capital expenditures during FY2025, up from $8,215M in FY2024 and $8,397M in FY2023. This multi-year surge represents peak capital intensity of 4.14x D&A, directed into electric grid safety, wildfire undergrounding, and major LNG liquefaction facilities. While peak spending absorbed operating cash flow of $4,565M and pushed trailing reported free cash flow to -$6,047M, these investments expand productive rate base and earnings-generative infrastructure that will normalize toward recurring maintenance levels (~1.2-1.5x D&A) as major projects achieve commercial readiness.5,6
Complementing the regulated California core, Sempra Infrastructure operates contracted cross-border pipeline and LNG export assets, contributing $1,566M in FY2025 revenue attributed to Mexico and $1,052M in segment operating revenue. These commercial infrastructure assets operate under multi-decade, US dollar-denominated take-or-pay agreements with investment-grade global off-takers. The imminent commercial commissioning of ECA LNG Phase 1 provides incremental cash generation insulated from local commodity price fluctuations and currency swings.7
A clear valuation disconnect exists between Sempra's market pricing and its underlying earnings fundamentals. At 14.51x forward P/E, Sempra trades at a discount to diversified utility peers, including American Electric Power (17.44x), Entergy (19.77x), and Duke Energy (15.91x). This discount persists despite consensus forward EPS growth of 8.90% in FY2026 ($5.11) and 8.47% in FY2027 ($5.54), outpacing peer earnings growth rates of 7.0%.1,3,4
Balance sheet leverage and regulatory execution represent the core risks to monitor. Consolidated total debt of $36,287M with an 8.81% pre-tax cost of debt requires disciplined refinancing management, while California wildfire risks are mitigated by statutory protections under Assembly Bill 1054. With 77.2% of long-term debt maturing beyond five years and authorized utility rate cases structured to pass through embedded debt costs, Sempra's capital structure remains resilient, supporting multiple expansion toward our $91.14 fair value midpoint.2,4
Decoupled Regulated Monopoly Core (92% of Revenue)
Sempra California generates $11,454M of consolidated revenue and $3,253M in operating income under California regulatory decoupling mechanisms. This structure isolates net operating income from volumetric energy consumption and weather variations, ensuring predictable rate-base compounding and cash flow stability.4,7
The multi-year capital surge ($10,612M in FY2025, or 4.14x D&A) reflects an intensive transformation build in grid hardening and LNG export capacity. As major projects reach commercial readiness, capex will normalize toward maintenance levels (~1.2-1.5x D&A), pivoting trailing free cash flow from -$6,047M into substantial positive cash generation.5,6
Contracted High-Margin LNG Export and Cross-Border Growth
Geographic exposure to Mexico delivered $1,566M in FY2025 revenue via Sempra Infrastructure. These assets operate under long-term, US dollar-denominated take-or-pay agreements with investment-grade counterparties, providing high-margin commercial earnings diversification that supports consensus EPS expansion to $5.54 by FY2027.1,7
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Sempra represents a compelling risk-adjusted Buy for long-term income and total return investors. The core franchise is anchored by Southern California Gas and San Diego Gas & Electric, which operate under state-approved revenue decoupling that insulates operating earnings from volume and weather swings. While peak transformation capital expenditures of $10,612M in FY2025 have weighed on trailing free cash flow (-$6,047M) and expanded debt to $36,287M, these outlays expand productive rate base and contracted LNG export capacity. As major construction phases near commercial operation, capex moderation will drive substantial free cash flow inflection, support a growing $2.63 annual dividend, and re-rate Sempra toward our $91.14 fair value.4,5,6,7
Tổng quan công ty
Sempra is an energy infrastructure holding company headquartered in San Diego, California, focused on regulated utility transmission and distribution as well as energy export infrastructure across North America. The company conducts its core domestic operations through Sempra California, which comprises Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). Together, these regulated utilities provide essential natural gas and electric transmission and distribution services to approximately 25 million consumers across Southern and Central California.
Through its Sempra Infrastructure segment, the company develops, owns, and operates cross-border energy networks, including natural gas pipelines, liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, and renewable energy generation assets. In FY2025, Sempra generated $12,418M in consolidated revenues, with Sempra California accounting for $11,454M or 92.24% of the total, while Mexico infrastructure operations contributed $1,566M or 12.61%.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
Under a severe multi-vector stress scenario, Sempra faces compounding pressures across regulatory, capital cycle, and macro channels. In this downside pathway, an unexpected CPUC general rate case ruling cuts authorized ROE below 9.0%, reducing operating income across Sempra California's $11,454M revenue base. Simultaneously, extended permitting reviews and supply-chain delays in Mexico push the commercial operation date of ECA LNG Phase 1 back by 18 months, leaving capital trapped in non-earning assets while consolidated capex remains elevated above $10B annually. Because operating cash flow ($4,565M in FY2025) cannot cover peak capex ($10,612M in FY2025) and dividend obligations ($2.63 per share), annual free cash flow deficits persist near -$6,047M. With $36,287M in existing debt and a pre-tax cost of debt of 8.81%, refinancing $3.25B in near-term maturities compounds annual debt service costs. This confluence of regulatory lag, extended cash burn, and heightened California wildfire liability concerns drives an equity multiple contraction toward 12.4x forward P/E, severely impairing equity compounding.
CPUC reduces authorized ROE, curbing Sempra California rate base returns on its revenue base
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Catastrophic Wildfire Liability Disallowance and AB 1054 Exhaustion
Uninsured wildfire liabilities exceeding $2.0B would deplete statutory reserves under California AB 1054, forcing emergency debt financing on top of existing debt of $36,287M and directly contracting operating margins from FY2025 levels of 26.2% ($3,253M operating income on $12,418M revenue).4,6
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
01
Uninsured wildfire liability claims
Exhaustion of statutory AB 1054 reserves forces direct utility debt financing on top of $36,287M total debt, impairing operating income from $3,253M.
Hiện tại:$0 unrecovered liabilities (covered under California AB 1054 statutory fund)
Cảnh báo nếu> $2.0B in uninsured wildfire liability claims
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
Sempra possesses a narrow economic moat underpinned by two structural advantages: exclusive regulatory utility franchises (intangible assets) and high-barrier natural transmission and distribution grids (efficient scale). The foundation of the business is Sempra California, comprising San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) and Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas). In FY2025, Sempra California generated $11,454M in revenue, accounting for 92.24% of consolidated revenue of $12,418M, and delivered $3,253M in operating income. These utility businesses operate under perpetual exclusive service territory charters granted by the State of California, insulating them from direct retail competition.
The regulatory framework administered by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) provides structural cash flow stability through revenue decoupling mechanisms. Decoupling severs utility revenue from volumetric electricity and natural gas sales, insulating net operating income from weather fluctuations, energy efficiency adoption, and macroeconomic contraction. Under general rate cases, the CPUC establishes an authorized rate base and allowed return on equity (historically 9.8% to 10.2%), allowing Sempra California to systematically compound earnings as capital additions for grid hardening, undergrounding, and clean energy integration are deployed and recognized in rate base.
Beyond California regulated utilities, Sempra Infrastructure operates contracted energy assets in the US and Mexico, generating $1,052M in operating revenue and $1,566M in Mexico-attributed revenue in FY2025. These assets, including cross-border natural gas pipelines, storage, and the Energía Costa Azul (ECA) LNG export facility, exhibit efficient scale characteristics. They are secured by multi-decade, US dollar-denominated take-or-pay commercial agreements with creditworthy international off-takers, protecting cash flows from commodity price swings and currency volatility.
While trailing return on invested capital of 1.86% sits below Sempra's moderate cost of equity of 7.1336% and WACC of 7.1475%, this spread reflects peak capital expenditure intensity ($10,612M in FY2025) during a major transformation build rather than structural moat decay. Peer utilities like AEP, Duke, and Xcel cannot poach customers across Sempra's exclusive service territories. As capital projects reach commercial operation and enter the authorized rate base, economic returns will expand, sustaining the durability of Sempra's narrow economic moat over our 5-year forecast horizon.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Sempra's return on invested capital of 1.86% currently sits below its cost of capital (moderate Ke of 7.1336% and WACC of 7.1475%) as a mathematical artifact of the capital-intensive transformation build ($10,612M capex in FY2025 expanding invested capital). However, state-sanctioned utility monopolies in California earn authorized returns on equity of 9.8% to 10.2% on an expanding rate base, ensuring economic profit compounding above funding costs over the full multi-year regulatory cycle once projects reach commercial operation.2,6
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Exclusive Regulatory Utility Franchises (Intangible Assets) — Sempra California operates state-sanctioned, exclusive utility service franchises through San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) and Southern California Gas (SoCalGas), generating $11,454M in FY2025 revenue (92.24% of consolidated revenue of $12,418M) and $3,253M in operating income under CPUC-approved decoupled rate structures that eliminate volume risk.Wide
02Natural Transmission and Distribution Grid Infrastructure (Efficient Scale)
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Adverse CPUC Cost of Capital Decisions or General Rate Case Cost Disallowances
high
12-24 months
Rigorous compliance with CPUC safety mandates, collaborative regulatory filings, and demonstrating alignment of rate-base capex with California clean energy policy.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($91.14). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $389.2M after modeled reinvestment of $2.2B, with terminal value at 86.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
In the base case, Sempra executes on its core regulated utility mandate, with Sempra California delivering predictable rate-base compounding under CPUC revenue decoupling mechanisms. Operating margins stabilize near historical utility levels, while consolidated revenue grows at a measured pace. Transformation capex moderates in an orderly fashion from peak levels across the forecast period, narrowing the free cash flow deficit as the initial ECA LNG export phase enters service. Consensus forward EPS growth supports sustainable dividend compounding.
CPUC authorized ROE maintained with full rate-base recognition of grid safety investments supporting Sempra California revenue of $11,454M
§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN
Vượt
Upgrade the rating; Expand portfolio allocation toward maximum utility weighting and verify regulatory filings and commercialization milestones.
Kích hoạt: Quarterly diluted EPS and full-year FY2026 earnings exceeding consensus expectations, accompanied by revenue outperformance and accelerated capex deceleration.
A material beat with FY2026 EPS exceeding the upper bound of consensus expectations and faster capex normalization would demonstrate accelerated rate base compounding and an earlier inflection to positive free cash flow, justifying an upgrade in house rating.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Buy; Maintain current portfolio allocation, continue monitoring capital expenditure pacing, and track general rate case proceedings.
Kích hoạt: FY2026 diluted EPS and consolidated revenue tracking within consensus range.
Results tracking consensus expectations confirm that California revenue decoupling is protecting utility margins while capital deployment proceeds as planned.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Pause incremental capital additions, review statutory insurance fund protections, and re-evaluate balance sheet debt metrics.
Kích hoạt: FY2026 diluted EPS falling below the lower bound of consensus guidance or unexpected CPUC disallowances reducing authorized ROE below historical baseline levels.
A material earnings shortfall or adverse CPUC cost of capital ruling would impair rate base compounding and extend free cash flow deficits, narrowing the margin of safety and warranting a downgrade without an outright exit given underlying utility asset backing.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Sempra's earnings quality is supported by stable regulated utility cash generation. In FY2025, GAAP net income was fully backed by operating cash flows, reflecting robust cash conversion from core utility activities. Stock-based compensation represents a negligible share of revenue, and CPUC revenue decoupling mechanisms eliminate volumetric sales distortions by insulating utility margins from weather and usage fluctuations. Although reported free cash flow was negative during FY2025, this temporary deficit is driven by productive transformation capital expenditures across grid reliability and LNG infrastructure rather than operational cash bleeding.
Sempra's cash flow statement illustrates the financial dynamics of a mature utility executing a major transformation build. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $4,565M, providing solid cash generation from Sempra California ($11,454M revenue). However, capital expenditures escalated to $10,612M, up from $8,215M in FY2024 and $8,397M in FY2023, resulting in reported free cash flow of -$6,047M. Total debt expanded to $36,287M. As major capital projects enter service, capex normalization toward 110-120% of D&A will reduce cash burn and restore positive free cash flow.4,5,6,7
Sempra's ROIC trajectory is poised to improve as major capital projects under construction transition into cash-generative operational assets. Currently, heavy invested capital in grid hardening and ECA LNG Phase 1 suppresses accounting returns. Once approved capital additions are incorporated into Sempra California's authorized rate base and commercial off-take agreements commence in Mexico, operating income will compound on authorized ROEs of approximately 10%, closing the return deficit.
Current ROIC of 1.86% trails enterprise WACC of 7.1475% and moderate cost of equity of 7.1336%, reflecting peak invested capital accumulation during the transformation build phase ($10,612M FY2025 capex).
Core Utility Stability Underpinned by California Decoupled Ratemaking
Sempra California generated $11,454M in FY2025 revenue (92.24% of consolidated revenue of $12,418M) and $3,253M in .
Doanh thu mới nhất12,4 T US$CAGR doanh thu +2,2%
Biên hoạt động26,2%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất-6 T US$FY2025
Nợ ròng36,3 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu12,4 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−8,4 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp4 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−744 Tr US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động3,3 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−1,4 T US$Lợi nhuận ròng1,8 T US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
12.418.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
8.421.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
3.997.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
744.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
3.253.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-1.416.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.837.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản96,2 T US$Tiền mặt1,6 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn5,3 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả58,4 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn9,7 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu37,8 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
96.155.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
1.565.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
5.285.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
58.367.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
9.676.000.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
37.788.000.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2024.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng2,9 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+2,4 T US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+86 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−478 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động4,9 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ389 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+4,9 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−9,1 T US$Dòng tiền tài chính+5,4 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá−13 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ1,6 T US$
4,9 T US$ − 8,2 T US$Dòng tiền tự do -3,3 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
2.862.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
5.385.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
2.437.000.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
86.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
4.907.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
478.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
10.720.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
389.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ tài chính
5.424.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
9.118.000.000 US$
Capex
8.215.000.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
903.000.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
13.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
1.589.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-9.118.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
5.424.000.000 US$
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
13,7 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
Entity Wide Disclosure On Geographic Areas United States12,1 T US$88,6%+4,4% so với cùng kỳ
Entity Wide Disclosure On Geographic Areas Mexico1,6 T US$11,4%+0,3% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-26 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Entity Wide Disclosure On Geographic Areas United States
12,1 T US$
88,6%
4,4%
Entity Wide Disclosure On Geographic Areas Mexico
1,6 T US$
11,4%
0,3%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-03.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
10,2 T US$
3,7 T US$
—
2,3 T US$
-1,9 T US$
4,2 T US$
1,3 T US$
52 Tr US$
56 Tr US$
686 Tr US$
—
-4,8 T US$
2,5 T US$
—
425 Tr US$
432 Tr US$
17,1 T US$
16,6%
—
3,9%
—
2017-12-31
9,6 T US$
3,7 T US$
—
3,6 T US$
-80 Tr US$
3,7 T US$
1,4 T US$
82 Tr US$
15 Tr US$
755 Tr US$
—
-4,9 T US$
1,2 T US$
425 Tr US$
364 Tr US$
354 Tr US$
19,4 T US$
23,8%
—
3,8%
—
2018-12-31
9,4 T US$
3,1 T US$
—
3,5 T US$
-28 Tr US$
3,5 T US$
1,5 T US$
83 Tr US$
21 Tr US$
877 Tr US$
—
-12,5 T US$
8,9 T US$
364 Tr US$
246 Tr US$
104 Tr US$
24,6 T US$
18,6%
—
4,7%
—
2019-12-31
10,1 T US$
4,4 T US$
—
3,1 T US$
-620 Tr US$
3,7 T US$
1,6 T US$
75 Tr US$
26 Tr US$
993 Tr US$
—
-4,6 T US$
1,5 T US$
246 Tr US$
108 Tr US$
108 Tr US$
25,8 T US$
27,1%
—
3,3%
—
2020-12-31
10,3 T US$
4,2 T US$
414 Tr US$
2,6 T US$
-2,1 T US$
4,7 T US$
1,7 T US$
71 Tr US$
566 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
—
553 Tr US$
-2,4 T US$
108 Tr US$
985 Tr US$
13,4 T US$
24,2 T US$
26,5%
—
2,7%
—
2021-12-31
11,7 T US$
3,3 T US$
1,3 T US$
3,8 T US$
-1,2 T US$
5 T US$
1,9 T US$
63 Tr US$
339 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
—
-5,5 T US$
1,3 T US$
985 Tr US$
581 Tr US$
559 Tr US$
24,6 T US$
26,1%
—
3,7%
—
2022-12-31
13,7 T US$
4,4 T US$
2,1 T US$
1,1 T US$
-4,2 T US$
5,4 T US$
2 T US$
71 Tr US$
478 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
4,2 T US$
-5 T US$
3,8 T US$
581 Tr US$
462 Tr US$
621 Tr US$
28,9 T US$
25,7%
—
5,6%
—
2023-12-31
14,8 T US$
6,1 T US$
3,1 T US$
6,2 T US$
-2,2 T US$
8,4 T US$
2,2 T US$
80 Tr US$
32 Tr US$
1,5 T US$
1,9 T US$
-8,7 T US$
2,4 T US$
462 Tr US$
389 Tr US$
-8 Tr US$
31,1 T US$
20,7%
—
6,1%
—
2024-12-31
11,8 T US$
5,9 T US$
2,9 T US$
4,9 T US$
-3,3 T US$
8,2 T US$
2,4 T US$
86 Tr US$
43 Tr US$
1,5 T US$
4,8 T US$
-9,1 T US$
5,4 T US$
389 Tr US$
1,6 T US$
24,4 T US$
35,8 T US$
24,0%
—
7,2%
—
2025-12-31
12,4 T US$
6,9 T US$
1,8 T US$
4,6 T US$
-6 T US$
10,6 T US$
2,6 T US$
64 Tr US$
58 Tr US$
1,6 T US$
7,3 T US$
-12,5 T US$
9,9 T US$
1,6 T US$
29 Tr US$
29 Tr US$
36,3 T US$
26,2%
—
5,9%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
SempraSRE
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý91,14 US$Report-date price78,38 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư61 / 100
Xcel Energy Inc.XEL
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý85,03 US$Report-date price79,73 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư52 / 100
Entergy CorporationETR
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý77,58 US$Report-date price100,94 US$
Sempra (SRE) trades at 14.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.7x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.8x compares with a peer median of 13.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Xcel Energy Inc., Entergy Corporation, American Electric Power Company Inc. and Duke Energy Corporation, as of 2026-10-03.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Peak
The broader utility industry capex-to-revenue benchmark is 0.336 (33.6%) and capex-to-depreciation is 3.15. In comparison, Sempra deployed $10,612M in FY2025 capex on $12,418M in consolidated revenue, generating a capex-to-revenue ratio of 85.5% and a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 4.14x against D&A of $2,563M. This follows capital outlays of $8,397M in FY2023 and $8,215M in FY2024, confirming peak transformation investment.6
Chu kỳ tăng giá
In an expansive utility upcycle, accelerating electrification and decarbonization mandates drive double-digit rate base growth for Sempra California, with CPUC granting supportive ROEs above 10.25%. Rapid completion and commissioning of ECA LNG Phase 1 expand high-margin, US dollar take-or-pay revenues from Mexico. Capital spending normalizes quickly from peak $10,612M levels toward maintenance levels, inflecting free cash flow into strong positive territory and closing Sempra's valuation discount against peer utilities like AEP and Entergy.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
In a severe utility downcycle, prolonged high benchmark interest rates elevate debt service costs across Sempra's $36,287M debt load. Unfavorable regulatory decisions compress authorized ROE below 9.0%, while supply chain disruptions and cross-border permitting friction delay LNG project commercialization. Negative free cash flow (-$6,047M in FY2025) persists, requiring dilutive equity issuance and driving forward valuation multiples down toward 12.4x P/E.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Decarbonization, Wildfire Hardening, and Grid Electrification Mandates
positive
California's statutory carbon-reduction mandates and wildfire mitigation requirements necessitate massive grid hardening, undergrounding, and clean energy distribution investments. This directly expands Sempra California's authorized rate base, driving formulaic revenue compounding across its $11,454M revenue engine.
Global LNG Export Demand and Pacific Basin Off-Take Growth
positive
Định vị
Sempra is insulated from retail market share competition due to exclusive utility franchises in Southern California, preventing peers like AEP, Duke, Entergy, and Xcel from contesting its customer base. At the same time, Sempra trades at a forward P/E multiple of 14.51x, representing a discount to the peer median of 16.68x (AEP at 17.44x, Duke at 15.91x, Xcel at 15.73x, Entergy at 19.77x), despite delivering faster consensus forward EPS growth of 8.5-8.9% versus peer averages around 7.0%.1,3,4
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
4-6%
Sempra warrants a core 4-6% allocation within an equity income or utility portfolio sleeve. This weighting reflects high earnings visibility from CPUC-regulated utility monopolies (92.2% of FY2025 revenue) and a 14.0% price discount to fair value midpoint of $91.14. Moderate conviction is selected to balance core regulated stability against elevated balance-sheet leverage ($36,287M total debt) during peak transformation build.4,7
Rủi ro
Risk management for Sempra centers on monitoring regulatory proceedings, wildfire liabilities, and balance-sheet liquidity. Position sizing is capped at 6.0% of portfolio equity to constrain single-stock exposure. Operational risk in California is managed through statutory coverage under the California Wildfire Fund (AB 1054) and active safety certifications, alongside massive ongoing capital deployment in grid hardening ($10,612M FY2025 capex). Sempra Infrastructure non-recourse project financing isolates holding company credit from construction risks in Mexico. Balance-sheet refinancing risks on $36,287M total debt are mitigated by an extended maturity schedule where 77.2% of debt matures after year 5, providing adequate runway for transformation projects to generate operating cash flows.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$75.00 - $78.50
Establish or build core position
The October 2, 2026 share price of $78.38 trades at a 14.0% discount to fair value midpoint of $91.14 and a forward P/E of 14.51x, well below peer median forward P/E of 16.68x.
$70.00 - $74.00
Opportunistic secondary accumulation
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
$91.00 - $95.00
Trim 25-30% of position to realize gains as valuation converges to fair value midpoint
$105.00 - $115.00
Rebalance exposure back to target portfolio weighting as price approaches bull-case boundaries
Sempra trades at 14.51x forward earnings, reflecting a 14.00% discount to our intrinsic fair value of $91.14 and a substantial discount to peer utilities (AEP at 17.44x, ETR at 19.77x), while anchoring 92.2% of revenue in regulated California utility monopolies.3,4,7
Income & Dividend Investor
Buy
Sempra provides a secure, growing dividend of $2.63 per share (yielding ~3.35% at $78.38), supported by $4,565M in FY2025 operating cash flow with dividend expansion headroom as capex normalizes from peak $10,612M levels.4,6
Growth & Quality Compounder
Buy
Consensus forward EPS growth of 8.90% in FY2026 ($5.11) and 8.47% in FY2027 ($5.54) outpaces large-cap peers (AEP and DUK at 7.0%), fueled by decoupled rate base growth and high-margin take-or-pay LNG export commissioning in Mexico.1,7
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua
We recommend an active Buy on Sempra (NYSE: SRE) with a 12-month intrinsic fair value of $91.14 per share, representing 16.28% upside relative to the October 2, 2026 share price of $78.38. Sempra's investment case is underpinned by the monopoly earnings power of Sempra California, which contributes 92.24% of consolidated revenue ($11,454M) under CPUC decoupled rate structures. At 14.51x forward P/E, the stock is priced at an unwarranted discount to large-cap utility peers while offering superior consensus EPS compounding of 8.5% to 8.9%.1,4,7
The temporary suppression of reported free cash flow (-$6,047M in FY2025) reflects peak capital expenditures ($10,612M) invested in regulated wildfire mitigation and export LNG construction. As ECA LNG Phase 1 approaches commercial operation and grid hardening capital normalizes toward recurring maintenance levels, capital intensity will moderate, inflecting free cash flow positively and safeguarding the sustainable compounding of Sempra's $2.63 annual dividend.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Capex remains elevated, extending free cash flow deficits from FY2025 levels of -$6,047M5
Debt refinancing costs on $36,287M total debt rise as pre-tax borrowing costs exceed 8.81%2,4
Exit valuation multiple contracts due to heightened California regulatory and wildfire risk perceptions
In the bear scenario, adverse California regulatory determinations compress authorized ROE or disallow capital expenditures, impairing Sempra California's earning assets. Concurrently, construction delays or permitting disputes in Mexico postpone initial ECA LNG commercial operation, stranding capital in non-productive assets while elevated debt obligations continue to accrue interest expense. Prolonged capital spending extends negative free cash flow, necessitating dilutive equity issuance or incremental borrowing that constrains dividend expansion and triggers a structural multiple derating.
If CPUC reduces authorized ROE below 9.0% (down from peer median levels of 10.13%), Sempra California's regulated return on its $11,454M revenue engine compresses permanently, reducing EPS compounding below 3.5% relative to consensus expectations of $5.54 for FY2027.1,7
FV impact
-2.9%
The analyst's bear scenario path and multiple as the base case
Trigger
Within 18 months
Persistent Higher Financing Costs on Debt Maturity Rollover
With $36,287M in total debt and pre-tax cost of debt at 8.81%, refinancing $3.25B of debt maturing over the next 24 months in a persistent high-rate environment (10Y risk-free rate 5.24%) elevates enterprise WACC and discount rates above 7.15%, expanding annual interest expense.2,4
FV impact
-21%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 24 months
Permanent California Regulatory and Wildfire Multiple Derating
Derating the exit P/E multiple from 15.5x by 20% to 12.4x reflects a permanent structural risk discount from California wildfire exposure and fossil midstream transition drag relative to diversified peer utilities (AEP at 17.44x, DUK at 15.91x, XEL at 15.73x, ETR at 19.77x), suppressing Sempra's current forward P/E of 14.51x.3,4
Cảnh báo nếu> 7.5% on rollover of $3.25B in debt maturing over 24 months
— Duplicating Sempra California's gas and electric distribution networks or Sempra Infrastructure's cross-border transmission corridors and LNG export facilities (such as ECA LNG Phase 1) would require prohibitive capital outlays without economic return. Sempra Infrastructure delivered $1,052M in FY2025 operating revenue and $1,566M in Mexico-attributed revenue, protected by long-term take-or-pay contracts.
Moderate
Catastrophic Wildfire Liabilities Exceeding Statutory Insurance and AB 1054 Fund Caps
high
12-36 months
Comprehensive wildfire mitigation execution, extensive grid undergrounding and covered conductors funded through transformation capex ($10,612M in FY2025), and coverage under California Wildfire Fund (AB 1054) statutory caps.6
Cross-Border Regulatory Friction or Permitting Delays on Mexico Infrastructure Assets
medium
24-36 months
Long-term take-or-pay contracts denominated in US dollars with investment-grade international off-takers, and strategic partnerships with global infrastructure investors.
In the upside scenario, CPUC rate case determinations award robust rate base expansion allowances and favorable ROE authorisations without cost disallowance. Sempra California compounds earnings above historical rates, while Sempra Infrastructure commissions the initial phase of ECA LNG ahead of schedule, expanding high-margin take-or-pay revenues from Mexico. Capex normalizes rapidly from peak capital expenditure levels toward maintenance, inflecting free cash flow into substantial positive generation and supporting multiple expansion toward peer utility medians.
Hiện tạiRecent capex reflects peak multi-year transformation build intensity; forecast reinvestment rate is scheduled to moderate substantially across the planning horizon toward recurring maintenance levels.
Vì sao quan trọng
Tracking capex moderation is essential to confirm the inflection of free cash flow from negative territory into positive cash generation.
03
Chỉ số:
ECA LNG Initial Phase Commercial Operation Date Milestones
Hiện tạiConstruction ongoing with targeted commercial operation over the near-term planning cycle under multi-decade take-or-pay agreements.
Vì sao quan trọng
Commissioning locks in high-margin US dollar take-or-pay cash flows, expanding Mexico revenue beyond historical delivery levels.
04
Chỉ số:
California Wildfire Fund Statutory Capacity and Safety Certifications
Hiện tạiSafety certifications remain active; statutory wildfire fund remains capitalized with zero unrecovered liabilities.
Vì sao quan trọng
Maintaining active safety certification provides statutory liability caps and protects utility equity value from catastrophic wildfire claims.
05
Chỉ số:
Debt Maturity Rollover and Financing Costs
Hiện tạiThe majority of long-term debt matures beyond five years, but near-term rollovers face higher market yields.
Vì sao quan trọng
Refinancing near-term maturities in an elevated interest rate environment directly impacts net interest expense and earnings compounding.
Management's capital allocation strategy prioritizes high-return regulated rate base deployment and energy infrastructure growth while sustaining shareholder distributions. Capital deployment peaked in FY2025 at $10,612M, with approximately 70% directed toward growth projects (wildfire hardening, electric grid reliability, and ECA LNG Phase 1) and 30% ($3,184M) toward maintenance capex. Dividend distributions of $2.63 per share represent a sustainable 75.5% payout ratio of normalized earnings power. Balance-sheet leverage ($36,287M total debt) is actively managed through long-dated debt maturities (77.2% due after year 5) and non-recourse project financing at Sempra Infrastructure.
Revenue decoupling insulates 92.2% of consolidated business revenue from volumetric demand swings and weather volatility, securing operating cash flow ($4,565M in FY2025) and underwriting baseline dividend payments.
Capex escalated to $10,612M in FY2025 from $8,215M in FY2024 and $8,397M in FY2023, driving FY2025 free cash flow to -$6,047M and total debt to $36,287M.
This capital intensity of 4.14x D&A ($2,563M D&A) reflects temporary transformation investments that will normalize post-2026, inflecting free cash flow into positive territory as projects achieve commercial operation.
Contracted Take-or-Pay Infrastructure in Mexico Accelerates Growth
Mexico-attributed revenue reached $1,566M in FY2025, while Sempra Infrastructure generated $1,052M in operating revenue.
Long-term US dollar take-or-pay agreements protect infrastructure earnings from peso currency volatility and support forward EPS growth toward $5.11 in FY2026 and $5.54 in FY2027.
Attractive Valuation Spread Relative to Regulated Utility Peers
Sempra trades at a forward P/E of 14.51x, compared to peer forward P/E multiples of 17.44x for AEP, 15.91x for Duke, 15.73x for Xcel, and 19.77x for Entergy.
Sempra offers faster consensus forward EPS growth (8.5-8.9% vs peers at 7.0%) while trading at a discount, providing multiple re-rating potential as infrastructure execution de-risks.
American Electric Power Company Inc.AEP
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý128,93 US$Report-date price118,35 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư54 / 100
Duke Energy CorporationDUK
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý124,95 US$Report-date price113,35 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư53 / 100
Biên
SRE
Sempra
$51.3B
14.5x
3.8x
16.8x
6.7%
—
XEL
Xcel Energy Inc.
$44.6B
15.7x
3.1x
13.8x
9.9%
22.7%
ETR
Entergy Corporation
$48.2B
19.8x
3.6x
14.1x
10.2%
24.5%
AEP
American Electric Power Company Inc.
$65.1B
17.4x
2.9x
13.2x
10.1%
23.3%
DUK
Duke Energy Corporation
$89.0B
15.9x
2.7x
11.0x
9.9%
27.5%
International energy security dynamics continue to support Pacific Basin and global demand for North American LNG. Sempra Infrastructure's cross-border LNG export terminals, notably ECA LNG Phase 1, capitalize on this trend through long-term, US dollar take-or-pay contracts that expand geographic revenue beyond the $1,566M reported in Mexico in FY2025.
Elevated Benchmark Interest Rates and Debt Financing Costs
negative
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields at 5.24% and pre-tax debt costs of 8.81% increase financing expenses on Sempra's $36,287M total debt, elevating interest costs during the ongoing capital construction window.
Provides an expanded margin of safety against regulated utility rate-base assets, elevating dividend yield and providing defensive capital protection.
> $12,000M without matching authorized tariff increases
Downgrade cash flow inflection schedule and reassess leverage risks on $36,287M total debt.4
ECA LNG Phase 1 commercial operation timeline
> 12 months delay past scheduled commercial operation date
Trim growth optionality assumptions for Sempra Infrastructure and reduce terminal growth expectations.
Uninsured wildfire liability claims
> $2.0B aggregate claims
Trigger immediate position review, hedge California utility exposure, and assess statutory AB 1054 fund viability.
