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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
TSCO — frequently asked questions
Is Tractor Supply Company overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-21, TSCO trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is 32,9 USD versus our fair value of 34,6 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 44,5 USD. That implies roughly 5.0% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-21, gives TSCO a fair value of 34,6 USD and a potential value of 44,5 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Tractor Supply Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy TSCO now?
Our latest published rating for TSCO, analyzed 2026-10-21, is Hold. Tractor Supply Company trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of 32,9 USD versus fair value of 34,6 USD; potential value is 44,5 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for TSCO?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-21 documents Tractor Supply Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is TSCO's rating?
Our latest published rating for TSCO, analyzed 2026-10-21, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 34,6 USD, the potential value of 44,5 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (32,9 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyHold
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$32.91
Giá trị hợp lý
$34.55
Giá trị tiềm năng
$44.45
Tính đến
2026-10-20
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
The primary opportunity is the normalization of the capital cycle and the operational leverage unlocked as distribution center construction completes.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Persistent line-haul freight inflation and diesel fuel price spikes exceeding retail budget expectations, combined with farm-and-ranch price matching.
Tractor Supply Company remains the preeminent rural lifestyle retailer in North America, but near-term margin compression from elevated freight rates, negative comparable store sales, and peak distribution center investments warrant a patient Hold rating at current market levels.
Tractor Supply operates an advantaged rural retail footprint that insulates it from conventional e-commerce disruption. Its extensive network of 2,463 stores provides crucial convenience for time-starved rural hobbyists and ranchers who depend on immediate availability of animal feed, livestock equipment, and farm hardware. Consumable, usable, and edible categories, alongside private label brands that reached 30.2% of sales in the first half of 2026, generate dependable recurring foot traffic. Additionally, the deliberate integration of pet health assets—comprising Petsense retail, Allivet online pharmacy, and VIP Petcare mobile veterinary clinics—creates a differentiated ecosystem with proven customer stickiness.
Despite these structural advantages, the company is navigating a cyclical earnings trough in FY2026. Comparable store sales fell 1.5% in Q2 2026, pressured by discretionary spending fatigue and seasonal volatility, prompting management to lower full-year comp guidance to -1% to flat and withdraw its long-term framework. At the same time, unexpected spikes in line-haul freight and diesel fuel expenses are weighing on , resulting in adjusted guidance of 8.5% to 8.8%. also remain elevated due to distribution center construction ($435.71M in H1 2026), keeping the FY2026 at 45.0%. We view the risk-reward profile as balanced and recommend holding existing positions while awaiting comp sales inflection and normalization.
Dominant Rural Footprint and High Private Brand Penetration
Operating 2,463 Tractor Supply stores across 49 states creates an unmatched physical network that dominates exurban and rural retail, insulating the business from pure-play digital competitors.
Capital reinvestment is modeled to step down from 45.0% of NOPAT in FY2026 to 28.0% in FY2030 as distribution facility construction completes, unlocking strong free cash flow expansion to $958.94M.
Expanding Companion Animal and Veterinary Ecosystem
The integration of Petsense, Allivet online pharmacy, and VIP Petcare mobile veterinary clinics provides a sticky, recurring service layer where >40% of fresh pet buyers are new or reactivated.
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Tractor Supply is rated Hold. The business possesses exceptional structural moats, but near-term earnings growth is constrained by line-haul freight inflation, negative comparable store sales, and elevated distribution investments. Investors should maintain current positions, capture recurring dividends, and defer adding fresh capital until comparable sales turn positive and the reinvestment rate normalizes.
Tổng quan công ty
Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) is the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the United States, operating 2,463 Tractor Supply stores across 49 states and 209 Petsense by Tractor Supply stores in 23 states as of June 27, 2026. The company specializes in meeting the daily needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, suburban homeowners, gardeners, and pet owners. Its merchandise assortment is heavily anchored by consumable, usable, and edible (C.U.E.) products, including livestock and pet feed, animal health solutions, seasonal hardware, lawn and garden supplies, and rural workwear.
In addition to its core retail locations, Tractor Supply has expanded its companion animal ecosystem through Petsense specialty stores, Allivet online pet pharmacy, and VIP Petcare mobile veterinary clinics, providing an integrated suite of pet food, wellness, and preventative medical care across rural America.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
In an acute downside scenario where rural consumer demand deteriorates alongside entrenched supply chain cost inflation, Tractor Supply would experience compounding headwinds. If comparable store sales contract by 2.0% to 3.0% across FY2026 and FY2027 while freight expenses and fuel prices stay at peak levels, fixed store occupancy and distribution overhead would deleverage sharply. Under this severe stress, operating margin would breach the 7.0% barrier. With committed capital expenditures for new distribution centers already underway ($435.71M invested in H1 2026), free cash flow generation would compress toward $250M-$300M, testing dividend coverage and necessitating the total cessation of share repurchases ($255.64M deployed in H1 2026). Additionally, terminal valuation multiples would contract toward mature retail peer levels of 12.0x-13.0x, causing multi-year price stagnation.
Revenue growth decelerates to 1.5%-2.5% annually due to persistent comp store sales declines
Operating margins remain depressed in the 7.5%-8.0% range due to ongoing line-haul freight inflation and promotional pricing4
Distribution center investments face extended payback periods and elevated construction carrying costs6
EPS growth is constrained to 2.5%-3.5% annually across the forecast period
Under the Bear scenario, persistent weakness among lower-income rural households and discretionary spending fatigue continue to suppress comparable transaction counts into FY2027. Elevated diesel fuel and freight expenses fail to subside, while competitive pressure from farm-and-ranch discounters forces Tractor Supply to maintain margin-dilutive price investments. Capital expenditures remain elevated for longer to complete delayed distribution facilities, curtailing free cash flow growth and muting shareholder capital returns.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Severe rural recession and price war driving operating margins below 7%
In Q2 2026, GAAP operating income contracted 19.2% YoY to $467.12M with GAAP operating margin falling 272 bps YoY to 10.29%, while full-year FY2026 operating margin was guided down to 8.0%-8.3%. If persistent line-haul freight inflation coincides with aggressive price cuts to match farm-and-ranch discounters, operating margins could break below the 7.0% threshold, generating a modeled -32.5% fair value impairment.4
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
01
Comparable Store Sales Growth
Indicates fundamental demand contraction among rural consumers and core foot-traffic deterioration beyond weather variations.
Hiện tại:-1.5% in Q2 2026
Cảnh báo nếuSustained comp sales contraction below -2.0% for two consecutive quarters
Reveals inability to offset line-haul freight inflation through distribution automation or vendor terms, sparking severe earnings impairment.
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
Tractor Supply possesses a wide economic moat rooted in its dominant physical presence across rural America and an optimized supply chain built specifically for heavy, bulky lifestyle goods. With 2,463 Tractor Supply locations in 49 states as of June 27, 2026, the company's real estate footprint is situated predominantly in outlying rural and exurban markets where mass merchants and digital retailers cannot justify large-scale capital deployment. This geographic insulation provides substantial pricing defensibility and creates an indispensable community hub for hobby farmers, ranchers, and rural homeowners.
The defensibility of the retail model is reinforced by Tractor Supply's proprietary merchandise mix and private brand penetration. In Q2 2026, owned brands and exclusive product categories generated 29.0% of net sales, rising to 30.2% across the first half of the year. These categories, paired with needs-based consumable, usable, and edible (C.U.E.) products, foster recurring transaction demand. Furthermore, the company's expansion into pet health through Allivet and VIP Petcare mobile clinics establishes an ecosystem of veterinary wellness that deepens customer lifetime loyalty and drives predictable shopping frequency.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
In FY2025, Tractor Supply produced $1,467.39M in operating income on invested capital of $4,346.29M. Assuming an effective tax rate of 22.13%, after-tax return on invested capital was approximately 26.3%, substantially outperforming the company's weighted average cost of capital of 7.24% and cost of equity of 8.31%. Even during the FY2026 operational trough with operating margins projected at 8.65%, ROIC is modeled to exceed 20%, demonstrating substantial economic profit generation above the cost of capital.1,5,6
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Distribution and Store Density Scale Advantage — Operating 2,463 Tractor Supply stores across 49 states supported by a dedicated regional distribution center infrastructure enables local fulfillment of heavy, low-margin products that competitors cannot match efficiently.Wide
02Defensible Rural Lifestyle Assortment and Real Estate Footprint — Specialized rural retail assortment focused on consumable, usable, and edible (C.U.E.) merchandise and owned brands, which accounted for 29.0% of total net sales in Q2 2026, insulating the company from broadline e-commerce platforms.Wide
03Integrated Companion Animal and Veterinary Ecosystem — The integrated pet platform—encompassing 209 Petsense stores, online pharmacy Allivet, and VIP Petcare mobile veterinary clinics—creates high recurring visit frequency and cross-shopping loyalty, with over 40% of fresh pet buyers representing new or reactivated accounts.
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Pricing pressure and promotional encroachment from regional farm-and-ranch discounters and mass-market dollar chains.
medium
12-24 months
Leveraging proprietary owned brands (30.2% of H1 2026 sales) and scale vendor allowances to preserve everyday low pricing without sacrificing long-term margin discipline.4
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($34.55). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $588.1M after modeled reinvestment of $481.2M, with terminal value at 84.3% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base case reflects our modal projection where FY2026 marks the operational trough for Tractor Supply. Comparable store sales stabilize near guided levels in FY2026 before re-accelerating in FY2027 and beyond. Heavy distribution center expenditures peak in FY2026 before tapering toward steady-state levels by FY2030, unlocking substantial free cash flow expansion. This path supports our central Fair value estimate of $34.55 per share.
Revenue growth accelerates to 5.0%-6.0% annually driven by strong rural consumer demand and accelerated market share gains
Operating margin expands toward 10.0% as freight rates normalize and distribution center automation yields significant landed cost savings
§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN
Vượt
Upgrade the rating; Consider incrementally increasing allocation toward the upper portfolio risk budget upon observing two consecutive quarters of expanding customer transaction counts.
Kích hoạt: Comparable store sales expanding positively, operating margin exceeding the upper end of guidance, and adjusted diluted EPS beating full-year expectations.
A decisive beat driven by comparable transaction count inflection and freight stabilization would validate that the FY2026 earnings trough has completed ahead of schedule, confirming multi-year earnings re-acceleration.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Hold; Maintain existing portfolio allocation, reinvest recurring dividend cash flows, and monitor distribution center milestone progress.
Kích hoạt: Comparable store sales between -1.0% and flat, adjusted operating margin of 8.5%-8.8%, and FY2026 adjusted EPS between $1.90 and $2.00.
Performance tracking within updated management guidance confirms that FY2026 represents a transient cyclical trough rather than structural impairment, supporting the central intrinsic valuation.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Trim exposure by twenty-five to fifty percent and place the position on probation pending stabilization in customer traffic and inventory turnover.
Kích hoạt: Comparable store sales below -2.0%, adjusted operating margin failing to hold 8.0%, or FY2026 adjusted EPS below $1.78.
A miss below updated guidance would signify that rural consumer distress and freight cost headwinds are worsening, eroding the margin trajectory and delaying capital cycle normalization.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Tractor Supply's reported earnings quality reflects significant non-GAAP adjustments in recent periods. In Q2 2026, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.69 differed from adjusted diluted EPS of $0.81 due to $75.3M in pre-tax impairment and acquisition charges, which included $62.75M in goodwill, intangible, and long-lived asset impairment for Petsense, $5.93M in inventory write-downs for 75 planned store closures, and $9.5M in VIP Petcare acquisition costs. Operating cash flows remain robust, generating $653.14M in H1 2026, though lower than $1,002.58M in H1 2025 due to working capital expansion in inventories ($429.66M outflow). Accounting policies remain conservative, with clean inventory valuation and standard depreciation schedules ($257.45M D&A in H1 2026).
Xu hướng dự báo
Sell-side consensus estimate revisions have drifted modestly downward following the Q2 2026 financial report and the subsequent withdrawal of the December 2024 Investor Day long-term framework. Full-year FY2026 consensus EPS estimates eased from $1.87 on October 7 to $1.86 on October 21, while FY2027 consensus EPS adjusted downward from $2.04 to $2.04. Similarly, FY2026 consensus revenue softened from $15.95B to $15.95B. This downward momentum reflects analyst modeling of persistent freight inflation and muted comp store sales through the remainder of FY2026.
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Comparable Store Sales and Transaction Counts
Hiện tạiQ2 2026 comps fell 1.5% with transaction count down 1.7%; FY2026 comp guidance updated to -1% to flat.
Vì sao quan trọng
Primary gauge of rural consumer health, foot traffic stability, and market share retention against discounters.
Operating cash flow generation generated $1,635.26M in FY2025 and $653.14M in H1 2026. Free cash flow reached $740.49M in FY2025 after accounting for $894.77M in capital expenditures. In FY2026, free cash flow to firm is modeled at $588.12M, constrained by an elevated 45.0% net reinvestment rate ($481.19M reinvestment). However, as distribution center construction tapers and working capital stabilizes, FCFF is projected to expand steadily: $683.40M in FY2027, $786.78M in FY2028, $895.88M in FY2029, and $958.94M in FY2030.6
Phân bổ vốn
Tractor Supply executes a balanced capital allocation strategy prioritizing internal growth, regular dividend increases, and programmatic share repurchases. In H1 2026, reached $435.71M, directed primarily toward new store openings (68 new TSCO stores opened in H1 2026) and regional distribution center infrastructure. The company returned $507.67M to shareholders in H1 2026, consisting of $252.02M in cash dividends ($0.24 declared per share quarterly) and $255.64M in share buybacks at an average price of $40.86 per share. In August 2026, TSCO strengthened its balance sheet by issuing $500M in 5.200% Senior Notes due 2032 to refinance existing credit facility borrowings. remains manageable, supported by $653.14M in H1 2026 .
Tractor Supply's return on invested capital has moderated from peak pandemic highs (operating margins of 10.26% in FY2021 and 10.16% in FY2023 down to 9.45% in FY2025 and 8.65% modeled in FY2026). This softening reflects cyclical line-haul freight inflation, tariff absorption, and substantial capital deployment into new distribution center facilities ($894.77M capex in FY2025). As these investments mature and the reinvestment rate steps down from 45% to 28%, ROIC is projected to stabilize and rebound toward steady-state levels.
Despite the near-term margin trough, after-tax ROIC remains exceptionally strong at over 20%, maintaining a wide economic profit spread of more than 13 percentage points above the company's weighted average cost of capital of 7.24% and cost of equity of 8.31%. This spread underscores the durability of the company's underlying .
Doanh thu mới nhất15,5 T US$CAGR doanh thu +9,6%
Biên hoạt động9,5%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất740,5 Tr US$FY2025
Tiền mặt ròng44,1 Tr US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu15,5 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−9,9 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp5,7 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−4,2 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động1,5 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−371,3 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng1,1 T US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
15.524.046.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
9.869.538.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
5.654.508.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
4.187.119.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
1.467.389.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-371.302.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.096.087.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản10,9 T US$Tiền mặt194,1 Tr US$Tài sản ngắn hạn3,5 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả8,4 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn2,6 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu2,6 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
10.933.679.000 US$
Tiền mặt
194.109.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
3.507.797.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
8.352.386.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
2.614.449.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
2.581.293.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng1,1 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+494 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+57,1 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−11,9 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động1,6 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ251,5 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+1,6 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−778,6 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−914,1 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ194,1 Tr US$
1,6 T US$ − 894,8 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 740,5 Tr US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.096.087.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
1.647.161.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
494.011.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
57.063.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
1.635.259.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
11.902.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
1.886.750.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
251.491.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
778.578.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
914.063.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
361.261.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
487.669.000 US$
Hoàn trả nợ ròng
72.819.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
194.109.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-778.578.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-914.063.000 US$
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-21.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
6,8 T US$
837 Tr US$
437,1 Tr US$
650,7 Tr US$
424,7 Tr US$
226 Tr US$
143 Tr US$
23,6 Tr US$
331,7 Tr US$
122,3 Tr US$
—
-369,3 Tr US$
-291,3 Tr US$
—
53,9 Tr US$
53,9 Tr US$
0 US$
10,2%
—
7,1%
—
2017-12-30
7,3 T US$
852,2 Tr US$
422,6 Tr US$
631,5 Tr US$
381 Tr US$
250,4 Tr US$
165,8 Tr US$
29,2 Tr US$
369,4 Tr US$
133,8 Tr US$
—
-238 Tr US$
-338,3 Tr US$
53,9 Tr US$
109,1 Tr US$
110 Tr US$
150 Tr US$
9,5%
—
7,0%
—
2018-12-29
7,9 T US$
879,1 Tr US$
532,4 Tr US$
694,4 Tr US$
415,9 Tr US$
278,5 Tr US$
177,4 Tr US$
28,9 Tr US$
349,8 Tr US$
147,1 Tr US$
—
-276,3 Tr US$
-440,9 Tr US$
109,1 Tr US$
86,3 Tr US$
88,9 Tr US$
150 Tr US$
8,9%
—
7,1%
—
2019-12-28
8,4 T US$
939,2 Tr US$
562,4 Tr US$
811,7 Tr US$
594,3 Tr US$
217,5 Tr US$
196 Tr US$
31,1 Tr US$
533,3 Tr US$
162,7 Tr US$
—
-215 Tr US$
-598,8 Tr US$
86,3 Tr US$
84,2 Tr US$
84,8 Tr US$
150 Tr US$
8,9%
—
5,9%
—
2020-12-26
10,6 T US$
1,2 T US$
749 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
1,1 T US$
294 Tr US$
217,1 Tr US$
37,3 Tr US$
343 Tr US$
174,7 Tr US$
—
-292,2 Tr US$
155,2 Tr US$
84,2 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
1,3 T US$
150 Tr US$
9,4%
—
4,9%
—
2021-12-25
12,7 T US$
1,6 T US$
997,1 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
510,3 Tr US$
628,4 Tr US$
270,2 Tr US$
47,6 Tr US$
798,9 Tr US$
239 Tr US$
—
-627,3 Tr US$
-975,1 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
878 Tr US$
878 Tr US$
150 Tr US$
10,3%
—
5,4%
—
2022-12-31
14,2 T US$
1,8 T US$
1,1 T US$
1,4 T US$
583,6 Tr US$
773,4 Tr US$
343,1 Tr US$
53,8 Tr US$
700,1 Tr US$
409,6 Tr US$
173,9 Tr US$
-1,1 T US$
-938,8 Tr US$
878 Tr US$
202,5 Tr US$
202,5 Tr US$
150 Tr US$
10,1%
—
7,7%
—
2023-12-30
14,6 T US$
1,9 T US$
1,1 T US$
1,3 T US$
580,2 Tr US$
753,9 Tr US$
393 Tr US$
57 Tr US$
594,4 Tr US$
449,6 Tr US$
567,2 Tr US$
-653,1 Tr US$
-486,4 Tr US$
202,5 Tr US$
397,1 Tr US$
397,1 Tr US$
150 Tr US$
10,2%
—
7,6%
—
2024-12-28
14,9 T US$
1,9 T US$
1,1 T US$
1,4 T US$
636,8 Tr US$
784 Tr US$
447,2 Tr US$
48,4 Tr US$
560,6 Tr US$
472,5 Tr US$
95,2 Tr US$
-643,9 Tr US$
-922,5 Tr US$
397,1 Tr US$
251,5 Tr US$
251,5 Tr US$
150 Tr US$
9,9%
—
8,3%
—
2025-12-27
15,5 T US$
2 T US$
1,1 T US$
1,6 T US$
740,5 Tr US$
894,8 Tr US$
494 Tr US$
57,1 Tr US$
361,3 Tr US$
487,7 Tr US$
-72,8 Tr US$
-778,6 Tr US$
-914,1 Tr US$
251,5 Tr US$
194,1 Tr US$
194,1 Tr US$
150 Tr US$
9,5%
—
7,2%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Tractor Supply CompanyTSCO
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý34,55 US$Report-date price32,91 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư61 / 100
Best Buy Co. Inc.BBY
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý78,18 US$Report-date price87,01 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư59 / 100
Ulta Beauty Inc.ULTA
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý485,87 US$Report-date price545,48 US$
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) trades at 14.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.1x compares with a peer median of 13.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Best Buy Co. Inc., Ulta Beauty Inc., Domino's Pizza Inc. and Packaging Corporation of America, as of 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Peak
Industry benchmark data indicates a retail capex-to-revenue ratio of 0.016 (1.6%) and an industry capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.65. In contrast, Tractor Supply deployed $894.77M in FY2025 capex on $15.52B in revenue (5.76% of revenue) and an additional $435.71M in H1 2026, reflecting an aggressive multi-year distribution center expansion program. Because broader industry capacity and supplier lead-time evidence remain unavailable, our sector cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.
Chu kỳ tăng giá
In an industry upcycle, real rural wage growth, demographic exurban migration, and resilient companion animal spending drive robust comp transaction growth. Distribution automation reduces cost-to-serve, while private label expansion enhances product gross margins above 37.5%, enabling industry operating margins to expand toward 10.0%.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
In an extended industry downturn, persistent inflation in living costs reduces discretionary home, garden, and recreational hardware purchases among rural consumers. Comp sales contract further, forcing promotional discounting against regional farm-and-ranch discounters and compressing industry operating margins below historical mid-cycle averages.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Exurban Migration and Rural Living Adoption
positive
Long-term population shifts toward rural, exurban, and semi-agricultural communities support structural demand for hobby farming, homesteading, and property maintenance supplies.
Companion Animal Humanization and Healthcare Integration
positive
Ongoing humanization of pets and livestock animal wellness drives recurring expenditure on premium nutrition, specialized pharmacy products, and preventative mobile veterinary care.
Định vị
Tractor Supply occupies the preeminent leadership position within the niche rural lifestyle retail sector. With 2,463 branded stores in 49 states, its scale dwarfs regional farm-and-ranch competitors. The company maintains an everyday low pricing strategy reinforced by exclusive brands, while its localized inventory mix of livestock feed, farm hardware, and pet nutrition establishes high customer retention across economic cycles.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
2-3%
A moderate conviction stance reflects the tension between Tractor Supply's outstanding long-term moat and its near-term earnings headwinds. The company's durable market leadership, 26% historical ROIC, and growing pet ecosystem justify a core allocation, but recent comp store declines (-1.5% in Q2 2026) and freight headwinds warrant limiting portfolio exposure to 2-3% pending operational turnaround.
Rủi ro
Position risk is managed by maintaining strict weighting limits (2-3% of portfolio equity) and tracking debt covenant compliance. In August 2026, Tractor Supply issued $500M in 5.200% Senior Notes due 2032 to refinance existing short-term credit facility obligations, extending debt maturities and preserving liquidity. With cash and cash equivalents of $231.59M at the end of Q2 2026 and operating cash flow of $653.14M generated in H1 2026, the balance sheet maintains robust flexibility to support ongoing dividend payments ($0.24 quarterly) through the FY2026 capital cycle peak.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Conservative accumulation tier offering an expanded margin of safety
The dividend ($0.24 quarterly / $0.48 declared in H1 2026) is well protected by $653.14M in H1 2026 operating cash flow, but the narrow 5.0% upside to central fair value ($34.55) does not warrant increasing capital commitments.
Value and Total Return Investor
Hold
At 14.45x forward earnings, TSCO trades at a modest discount to its 15.0x terminal multiple, but lacks an immediate catalyst following the withdrawal of the Investor Day multi-year framework. A wider margin of safety is needed before adding.2
Short-Term Tactical Trader
Avoid
Negative comp store sales (-1.5% in Q2 2026) and ongoing freight cost headwinds create risk of further estimate revisions through Q3 and Q4 2026, limiting near-term momentum.
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Giữ
We maintain a Hold recommendation on Tractor Supply Company with Fair value of $34.55. At $32.91, the implied return to Fair value is 5.0%. While the company's wide economic moat and rural retail dominance remain intact, near-term operational headwinds justify maintaining existing equity positions rather than initiating new exposure.
Earnings growth is temporarily suppressed by line-haul freight inflation, negative comparable store sales (-1.5% in Q2 2026), and peak capital reinvestment for distribution center projects. Long-term investors should hold existing shares to collect recurring dividends and await clearer evidence of comp sales stabilization and free cash flow acceleration.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Persistent negative comparable store sales causing 5-year revenue stagnation
Q2 2026 comparable store sales fell 1.5% with transaction count down 1.7%, and full-year FY2026 comp guidance was reduced to -1% to flat. If new store cannibalization increases across saturated territories and rural discretionary demand stays subdued, revenue growth would fail to reach the modeled 3.5%-4.5% path, leading to an estimated -24.8% fair value reduction.4
FV impact
-6.2%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Tractor Supply trades at 14.45x forward earnings against a modeled 15.0x exit multiple. However, broad retail peers like Best Buy trade at 13.00x forward P/E. Following the withdrawal of the Investor Day multi-year targets, continued low-single-digit compounding would cause terminal multiple compression of 20% toward ~12.0x, driving an estimated -20.0% fair value impact.2,3
FV impact
-5.2%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Hiện tại:8.65% modeled FY2026; FY2026 GAAP guidance 8.0%-8.3%
Opening additional regional distribution centers to decrease transit stem-miles, alongside supply chain landed-cost initiatives.
Petsense operational drag and store rationalization costs.
low
6-12 months
Executing a restructuring plan to close ~75 underperforming Petsense stores, incurring $65.8M in Q2 2026 charges to sharpen capital allocation on high-return veterinary and digital services.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (6,09 US$) plus discounted terminal value (32,66 US$) minus signed per current share (-0,08 US$) equals the 38,84 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the Bull case, rural consumer spending rebounds sharply from the recent soft patch, and comparable store sales return to solid positive growth. Distribution center additions deliver landed-cost efficiencies faster than anticipated, driving operating margins back toward historical peak levels. Combined with steady annual net share count reductions and rapid integration of Allivet and VIP Petcare, free cash flow generation accelerates well above base expectations, driving valuation toward Potential value of $44.45.
Vì sao quan trọng
Determines whether line-haul freight inflation is cresting and whether landed-cost efficiencies are restoring operating profitability.
Operating margins are troughing due to freight costs and tactical price investments.
Operating margin fell from 10.26% in FY2021 and 9.45% in FY2025 to a guided adjusted rate of 8.5%-8.8% in FY2026 (GAAP 8.0%-8.3%).
FY2026 represents the operational margin trough of the current cycle, with operating margins modeled to stabilize at 8.65% before recovering gradually toward 9.20% by FY2030.
