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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
TTWO — frequently asked questions
Is Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-03, TTWO looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 203 USD versus our fair value of 98,7 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 130 USD. That implies roughly 51.3% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, gives TTWO a fair value of 98,7 USD and a potential value of 130 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy TTWO now?
Our latest published rating for TTWO, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Sell. Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 203 USD versus fair value of 98,7 USD; potential value is 130 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for TTWO?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-03 documents Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is TTWO's rating?
Our latest published rating for TTWO, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 98,7 USD, the potential value of 130 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (203 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâySell
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$202.73
Giá trị hợp lý
$98.70
Giá trị tiềm năng
$130.31
Tính đến
2026-10-02
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
The most substantial operational opportunity lies in Grand Theft Auto VI exceeding even the most optimistic commercial forecasts upon launch, driving FY2028 revenue toward the consensus high of $11,192.1M and diluted EPS toward $8.48, propelled by unprecedented global pre-orders and rapid expansion of recurrent digital live-service monetization.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Milestone delivery slippage of Grand Theft Auto VI past FY2028 or recurrent customer spending dropping below 70% of revenue.
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) is assigned an investment committee rating of Sell with an intrinsic fair value midpoint of $98.70 USD against a market price of $202.73 USD as of 2026-10-02, representing an implied return of -51.31% and a price premium to fair value of 105.40%. Market pricing reflects unprecedented speculative optimism surrounding the commercial launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, aggressively capitalizing multi-year operational perfection while ignoring pre-profit fundamentals, negative trailing operating earnings, significant debt obligations, and heavy platform partner concentration.4
At the prevailing market price of $202.73, Take-Two Interactive Software trades at more than double its house intrinsic fair value midpoint of $98.70. The stock's current valuation multiple of 28.17x discounts a flawless commercial execution of Grand Theft Auto VI and an immediate leap to mature peer . However, Take-Two remains classified under a pre-profit , having generated a GAAP operating loss of -$104.2M and a GAAP net loss of -$298.2M in FY2026 on of $6,656.4M. Diluted average shares stood at 183.9M, resulting in reported of -$1.62.
The investment case is anchored on the durability of recurrent customer spending, which reached $5,196.6M in FY2026, or 78.1% of consolidated net revenue, and expanded to 84% of net bookings in Q1 FY2027. This recurring digital engagement buffers cash generation between blockbuster releases, enabling positive operating cash flow of $624.3M and free cash flow of $461.5M after capital expenditures of $162.8M. Nonetheless, non-cash stock-based compensation of $305.3M absorbed 48.9% of operating cash flow, highlighting high ongoing developer retention costs required to maintain live services.5,6,7,8
Distribution risk represents an acute structural vulnerability. The company's five largest customers accounted for 80.6% of net revenue in FY2026 (with the two largest partners accounting for 24.9% and 22.5%, respectively) and 69.6% of gross accounts receivable. With physical retail having contracted to just $196.7M, Take-Two is locked into digital console and mobile platform storefronts that impose rigid commissions, capping gross margin expansion and limiting operating leverage.8
Balance sheet leverage further constrains equity upside. Take-Two carries $2,958.3M of total debt against cash and equivalents of $1,545.5M. The company's computed WACC is 9.75% and pre-tax cost of debt stands at an elevated 19.78%, elevating refinancing sensitivity if release milestones slip. In comparison, direct peer Electronic Arts commands an enterprise value of $52.4B and an operating margin of 25.88%, operating with established recurring profitability while TTWO continues to fund peak pre-launch investments.2,3,4,7
Our valuation synthesis combines Forward Earnings (0.40 weight, $101.34 midpoint), EV/Revenue (0.25 weight, $107.43 midpoint), FCFFDCF (0.20 weight, $77.41 midpoint), and Multi-Stage Moat Fade (0.15 weight, $105.48 midpoint), resulting in a weighted intrinsic fair value midpoint of $98.70 USD. Downside risk remains substantial if delivery milestones slip or recurrent customer spending softens. With shares trading at $202.73, the risk-reward profile is heavily skewed to the downside, supporting a clear Sell rating.4
Premier Tier-1 Entertainment Franchise Monopoly
Rockstar Games and 2K possess irreplaceable intellectual properties including Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, and NBA 2K, commanding unmatched cultural mindshare, intense player loyalty, and unprecedented pre-order momentum that competitors cannot replicate.5
High-Margin Recurrent Customer Spending Base
Live services, virtual currency, and digital recurring spending generated $5,196.6M in FY2026 (78.1% of revenue) and rose to 84% of net bookings in Q1 FY2027, providing substantial ongoing cash flow stability.5,7,8
Scaled Global Distribution and Mobile Reach
With mobile generating $3,333.0M (50.1% of revenue) and non-US international markets contributing $2,716.0M (40.8% of revenue), Take-Two reaches a vast global audience across mobile, console, and PC platforms.8
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Sell. Take-Two Interactive Software commands elite creative intellectual property, but at $202.73 the market has priced in a multi-year best-case scenario with an implied downside of -51.31% to the house fair value midpoint of $98.70. With trailing operations generating a GAAP net loss of -$298.2M in FY2026, $2,958.3M of total debt, and heavy gatekeeper customer concentration (80.6% across top 5 partners), investors should liquidate positions and avoid fresh capital allocation until market pricing realigns with fundamental cash generation.4,7,8
Tổng quan công ty
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. is a leading global developer, publisher, and marketer of interactive entertainment across console gaming systems, personal computers, and mobile devices. The company operates through renowned wholly-owned publishing labels including Rockstar Games, 2K, Private Division, and Zynga, maintaining an intellectual property catalog headlined by global cultural franchises such as Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, NBA 2K, WWE 2K, Borderlands, Civilization, and mobile franchises including Words With Friends and Toon Blast.
In the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, Take-Two generated consolidated net revenue of $6,656.4M. Delivery of content is virtually entirely digitized, with digital online channels generating $6,459.7M, or 97.04% of total revenue, while physical retail products contributed just $196.7M. By platform, mobile has become the company's largest distribution format following the acquisition of Zynga, accounting for $3,333.0M (50.07% of net revenue), followed by console at $2,597.3M (39.02%), and PC and other platforms at $726.1M (10.91%).
Geographically, Take-Two maintains broad international reach, with United States operations generating $3,940.4M (59.19% of revenue) and international markets contributing $2,716.0M (40.81% of revenue). Revenue composition is anchored by recurrent customer spending—including in-game purchases, virtual currency, downloadable episodic add-ons, and microtransactions—which delivered $5,196.6M or 78.07% of total revenue in FY2026, while full-game and other upfront software sales contributed $1,459.8M.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
The downside stress test evaluates a compound failure scenario where the commercial launch of Grand Theft Auto VI is delayed beyond FY2028 while mobile live-service monetization deteriorates. Take-Two entered this pre-profit transition phase with a trailing GAAP operating loss of -$104.2M and a net loss of -$298.2M in FY2026. Although cash and cash equivalents totaled $1,545.5M, total debt obligations of $2,958.3M carry an elevated pre-tax cost of debt of 19.78%, resulting in heavy annual interest drag. Concurrently, stock-based compensation of $305.3M in FY2026 consumed 48.9% of operating cash flow ($624.3M), driving steady share dilution on a 186.98M share count. Under stress conditions where revenue fails to achieve the projected $9,254.4M FY2028 consensus inflection and platform storefront take rates remain rigid at 80.6% channel concentration, consolidated operating margins remain suppressed near 14.5% instead of normalizing to 20.5%. Under these combined headwinds, fair value collapses toward the lower bound of $76.16, representing severe downside from $202.73 as of October 2, 2026.
Title commercialization slippage delays top-line inflection, keeping FY2028 revenue near $8,411.5M consensus low
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Blockbuster Title Delivery Slippage Past FY2028
Milestone delivery slippage of the flagship title past FY2028 would cause annual revenue to fall short of consensus expectations of $9,254.4M, depressing top-line growth while fixed development overhead ($1,074.6M R&D in FY2026) continues to burn cash. A drop below 10% YoY annual revenue growth over a 12-month horizon would drive an estimated fair value impact of -32.5%.1
FV impact
-21.1%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 12 months
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Take-Two's Narrow economic moat is grounded in its elite portfolio of proprietary interactive entertainment intellectual property. Flagship properties—most notably Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto and Red Dead Redemption, alongside 2K's annualized NBA 2K franchise—command extraordinary brand equity, cultural resonance, and player mindshare. Management has highlighted that pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI are unprecedented across company and industry history, with strong consumer demand across standard and deluxe editions. This deep consumer pull supports pricing power and shields the business from generic software commoditization, driving consensus expectations for FY2028 net revenue to reach $9,254.4M and diluted EPS to expand to $5.29.
The durability of this competitive advantage is further reinforced by network effects and switching costs embedded within its multiplayer virtual economies. Rather than relying entirely on cyclical hit releases, Take-Two generated $5,196.6M in recurrent customer spending during FY2026, representing 78.1% of consolidated net revenue ($6,656.4M). Recurrent spending expanded to 84% of net bookings in Q1 FY2027. Because 97.0% of revenue is delivered digitally ($6,459.7M in FY2026), virtual currency sales and live content updates carry high incremental cash margins, converting directly into $624.3M in operating cash flow and $461.5M in free cash flow even while GAAP operating income remained negative (-$104.2M).
However, the moat cannot be classified as Wide due to severe structural distribution dependencies and mobile execution risks. Take-Two relies on a handful of gatekeepers to distribute its content: its five largest customers accounted for 80.6% of net revenue in FY2026, with the second customer representing 24.9% and the single largest representing 22.5%. This gatekeeper concentration locks Take-Two into standard 15% to 30% storefront platform commissions, capping gross margin expansion. Furthermore, mobile revenue of $3,333.0M (50.1% of FY2026 revenue) faces constant user acquisition cost inflation and lower barriers to entry, confirming the Narrow moat rating.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
In the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, Take-Two reported a GAAP operating loss of -$104.2M on net revenue of $6,656.4M, resulting in an operating margin of -1.57% and a negative ROIC of -1.45% that failed to cover its computed WACC of 9.75% or cost of equity of 9.30%. This economic deficit reflects peak development expenditure for Grand Theft Auto VI rather than structural franchise erosion. Because recurrent customer spending generated $5,196.6M (78.1% of revenue) and digital delivery reached $6,459.7M (97.0% of revenue), operating cash flow turned positive to $624.3M and free cash flow reached $461.5M. Normalized economic profits are projected to inflect positively once commercial launch operating leverage allows operating margins to scale toward peer levels, such as Electronic Arts' 25.88% operating margin.
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Intangible Assets (Proprietary Entertainment IP) — Take-Two owns premier entertainment franchises including Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, and NBA 2K. The commercial authority of these properties is demonstrated by unprecedented pre-order demand across standard and deluxe editions and consensus estimates projecting FY2028 revenue of $9,254.4M and diluted EPS of $5.29.Wide
02
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Platform Gatekeeper Concentration and Storefront Commission Rigidity
high
Ongoing (12-24 months)
Expanding direct-to-consumer PC web stores, partnering with alternative digital distributors such as Netflix, and cross-promoting content across owned publishing ecosystems.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($98.70). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $303.0M after modeled reinvestment of $66.5M, with terminal value at 76.8% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base case underwrites Take-Two's transition from peak development spending into operational normalization. FY2027 revenue grows 27.8% to $8,503.6M with diluted EPS reaching $1.84. By FY2028, revenue expands to consensus expectations of $9,254.4M and diluted EPS scales to $5.29. Recurrent customer spending remains resilient above 75% of net revenue, building on FY2026's $5,196.6M baseline. Operating margins expand steadily from 5.5% in FY2027 to 14.0% in FY2028, eventually reaching 20.5% by FY2031, yielding an intrinsic fair value midpoint of $98.70 discounted at a 9.75% WACC.1,2,8
FY2028 net revenue reaches the consensus high of $11,192.1M1
§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN
Vượt
Upgrade the rating; Maintain disciplined risk controls and evaluate whether incremental operational beats translate into structural free cash flow improvement rather than transitory working capital timing.
Kích hoạt: Net bookings exceeding guided ranges, accompanied by recurrent customer spending expanding above guidance and mobile margin stabilization.
An operational beat confirms franchise engagement and pre-order momentum but does not close the wide valuation gap relative to intrinsic cash flows, warranting an unchanged stance.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Sell; Review progress on upcoming release milestones and monitor live-service player retention across core console and mobile franchises.
Kích hoạt: Net bookings and recurrent customer spending meeting management guidance ranges, with operating margins tracking the projected fiscal path.
Inline operating results demonstrate business stability but leave the fundamental disparity between market pricing and intrinsic discounted cash flows unaddressed.
Hụt
Maintain Sell; Re-examine downside protection thresholds, scrutinize development milestone progress, and evaluate debt refinancing risks.
Kích hoạt: Net bookings falling below the guidance range, recurrent customer spending contracting year-over-year, or operating cost overruns in mobile marketing.
An operational miss validates concerns regarding peak valuation vulnerability, mobile cost inflation, and the sensitivity of cash flows to release calendar timing.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Take-Two's earnings quality reflects an inflection dynamic between reported GAAP losses and underlying operating cash generation. In FY2026, the company reported a GAAP operating loss of -$104.2M and a GAAP net loss of -$298.2M in FY2026 (-$1.62 diluted EPS on 183.9M average shares). However, operating cash flow was positive at $624.3M and free cash flow was $461.5M. A significant driver of this gap is non-cash stock-based compensation of $305.3M in FY2026, which represented 48.9% of operating cash flow and contributed to ongoing share count expansion toward 186.98M shares. While cash conversion is sustained by upfront digital collections ($5,196.6M recurrent spending), true economic earnings will remain constrained until capitalized development amortization peaks and GAAP profitability aligns with cash flow.
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Recurrent Customer Spending Trajectory
Hiện tạiDeclined 1% YoY in Q1 FY2027, beating guidance of a 3% decline and accounting for 84% of net bookings.
Vì sao quan trọng
Recurrent spending represents 78.1% of net revenue ($5,196.6M in FY2026) and provides essential high-margin cash flow to fund development.8
Operating cash flow turned positive to $624.3M in FY2026, up from negative operational conversion in prior investment years, driven by recurrent customer spending of $5,196.6M across digital live services. Subtracting physical capital expenditures of $162.8M yielded free cash flow of $461.5M. However, cash flow quality is heavily assisted by non-cash stock-based compensation of $305.3M, which represented 48.9% of operating cash flow, alongside working capital movements in deferred revenue. In Q1 FY2027, recurrent spending declined 1% YoY, but still comprised 84% of net bookings ($1.39B total net bookings). True cash conversion will expand significantly only when commercial shipments begin in FY2028, unlocking consensus projections of $9,254.4M in revenue and $5.29 diluted EPS.
Take-Two's reported EBIT margin trajectory collapsed from 18.66% in FY2021 to -21.78% in FY2023, -67.12% in FY2024, and trough levels of -77.94% in FY2025 due to Zynga acquisition amortization and heavy R&D for next-generation titles. Margins rebounded toward breakeven at -1.57% in FY2026 (operating income of -$104.2M on $6,656.4M revenue). Under house forecast schedules, operating margins normalize to 5.5% in FY2027, 14.0% in FY2028, and 20.5% by FY2031, driving ROIC well above WACC as revenue reaches consensus projections of $9,254.4M in FY2028 and diluted EPS expands to $5.29.
Take-Two's trailing ROIC of -1.45% in FY2026 lags its computed of 9.75% and of 9.30%, reflecting peak development expenditures ahead of flagship commercialization.
Doanh thu mới nhất6,7 T US$CAGR doanh thu +15,8%
Biên hoạt động-1,6%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất461,5 Tr US$FY2026
Nợ ròng969 Tr US$FY2026
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Doanh thu6,7 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−2,8 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp3,8 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−3,9 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động-104,2 Tr US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−194 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng-298,2 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
6.656.400.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
2.846.700.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
3.809.700.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
3.913.900.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
-104.200.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-194.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
-298.200.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản9,4 T US$Tiền mặt1,5 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn3,2 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả5,9 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn2,6 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu3,5 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
9.383.200.000 US$
Tiền mặt
1.545.500.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
3.199.500.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
5.872.300.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
2.588.800.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
3.510.900.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2022.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng418 Tr US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+61,1 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+183 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−404,1 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động258 Tr US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ2,1 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+258 Tr US$Dòng tiền đầu tư+139,2 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−256,8 Tr US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá−5,2 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ2,2 T US$
258 Tr US$ − 158,6 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 99,4 Tr US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
418.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
662.100.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
61.100.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
183.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
258.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
404.100.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
2.457.400.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
2.060.200.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ đầu tư
139.200.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
256.800.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
200.000.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
200.000 US$
Hoạt động tài chính khác
56.600.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
5.200.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
2.195.400.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
139.200.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-256.800.000 US$
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2026-03-31.
6,7 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
United States3,9 T US$59,2%+15,7% so với cùng kỳ
Non Us2,7 T US$40,8%+22% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-05-22 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
United States
3,9 T US$
59,2%
15,7%
Non Us
2,7 T US$
40,8%
22%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-03.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2017-03-31
1,8 T US$
350,7 Tr US$
67,3 Tr US$
407,9 Tr US$
386,7 Tr US$
21,2 Tr US$
30,7 Tr US$
81,9 Tr US$
0 US$
0 US$
—
-129 Tr US$
-49,8 Tr US$
—
1,3 T US$
1,4 T US$
268,1 Tr US$
5,1%
—
6,0%
—
2018-03-31
1,8 T US$
303,8 Tr US$
173,5 Tr US$
493,5 Tr US$
432 Tr US$
61,6 Tr US$
44 Tr US$
116,3 Tr US$
154,8 Tr US$
0 US$
—
-271,8 Tr US$
-281,5 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
1,2 T US$
1,4 T US$
8,2 Tr US$
7,6%
—
6,9%
—
2019-03-31
2,7 T US$
505,6 Tr US$
333,8 Tr US$
843,5 Tr US$
776,5 Tr US$
67 Tr US$
40,2 Tr US$
247,7 Tr US$
362,4 Tr US$
—
—
-223,6 Tr US$
-463,7 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,6 T US$
—
7,7%
—
—
—
2020-03-31
3,1 T US$
700,2 Tr US$
404,5 Tr US$
685,7 Tr US$
632,3 Tr US$
53,4 Tr US$
48,1 Tr US$
257,9 Tr US$
0 US$
—
—
4 Tr US$
-77,5 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
2 T US$
2 T US$
177,2 Tr US$
13,8%
—
3,6%
—
2021-03-31
3,4 T US$
890,8 Tr US$
588,9 Tr US$
912,3 Tr US$
843,4 Tr US$
68,9 Tr US$
55,6 Tr US$
110,5 Tr US$
0 US$
—
—
-806,8 Tr US$
-57,4 Tr US$
2 T US$
2,1 T US$
2,7 T US$
191,3 Tr US$
18,7%
—
4,4%
—
2022-03-31
3,5 T US$
747 Tr US$
418 Tr US$
258 Tr US$
99,4 Tr US$
158,6 Tr US$
61,1 Tr US$
183 Tr US$
200 Tr US$
200 N US$
—
139,2 Tr US$
-256,8 Tr US$
2,1 T US$
2,2 T US$
2,6 T US$
250,2 Tr US$
13,5%
—
5,1%
—
2023-03-31
5,3 T US$
582,5 Tr US$
-1,1 T US$
1,1 Tr US$
-203,1 Tr US$
204,2 Tr US$
122,3 Tr US$
317,8 Tr US$
0 US$
108,1 Tr US$
1,9 T US$
-2,9 T US$
1,9 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,2 T US$
1 T US$
1,7 T US$
-21,8%
—
6,1%
—
2024-03-31
5,3 T US$
-1,8 T US$
-3,7 T US$
-16,1 Tr US$
-157,8 Tr US$
141,7 Tr US$
171,2 Tr US$
335,6 Tr US$
0 US$
—
9,3 Tr US$
-28,2 Tr US$
-91,4 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
1,1 T US$
776 Tr US$
3,5 T US$
-67,1%
—
—
—
2025-03-31
5,6 T US$
-3 T US$
-4,5 T US$
-45,2 Tr US$
-214,6 Tr US$
169,4 Tr US$
229,4 Tr US$
324 Tr US$
—
—
590,6 Tr US$
-151,5 Tr US$
650,5 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
1,6 T US$
1,5 T US$
4,1 T US$
-77,9%
—
—
—
2026-03-31
6,7 T US$
1,2 T US$
-298,2 Tr US$
624,3 Tr US$
461,5 Tr US$
162,8 Tr US$
198,5 Tr US$
305,3 Tr US$
—
—
-1,2 T US$
-649,2 Tr US$
94,6 Tr US$
1,6 T US$
1,6 T US$
2 T US$
3 T US$
-1,6%
—
7,8%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.TTWO
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý98,7 US$Report-date price202,73 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư42 / 100
Electronic Arts Inc.EA
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý136,44 US$Report-date price201,7 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư67 / 100
NetEase, Inc.NTES
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý177,78 US$Report-date price114,49 US$
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) trades at 28.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 21.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 50.9x compares with a peer median of 20.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Electronic Arts Inc., NetEase, Inc., Live Nation Entertainment Inc. and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., as of 2026-10-03.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Peak
The interactive entertainment industry exhibits peak capital cycle dynamics, evidenced by industry benchmark capex-to-revenue of 19.5% and industry capex-to-depreciation of 3.66x. For Take-Two, physical property and equipment capex was $162.8M in FY2026, but extensive capitalized software development and operating R&D expenses ahead of major releases mark the culmination of a multi-year investment phase.7
Chu kỳ tăng giá
The industry bull cycle is propelled by generational AAA blockbuster releases, rapid digital adoption, and expanding recurrent player monetization. In a favorable cycle, premier intellectual properties command higher initial selling prices across deluxe editions and drive multi-year virtual currency spending, while digital distribution (97.0% of revenue) eliminates physical supply-chain costs. This dynamic generates massive operational leverage over fixed R&D budgets, enabling operating margins to expand toward peer benchmark levels like Electronic Arts' 25.88% and driving robust free cash flow expansion.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
The industry bear cycle manifests when extended title release slippage intersects with macroeconomic consumer spending fatigue and escalating development budgets. With interactive entertainment hardware input costs rising, console installed base growth decelerates, forcing publishers to compete aggressively for a stagnant player pool. Under these conditions, marketing expenditures and mobile user acquisition costs rise sharply, while platform storefront gatekeepers enforce rigid 30% take rates across the 80.6% revenue concentration, keeping GAAP operating margins negative.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Pervasive Digitization and Live-Service Monetization
positive
Video game monetization has migrated structurally from physical boxed software to digital downloads and continuous live services. Take-Two generated $6,459.7M in digital online revenue (97.0% of net revenue) and $5,196.6M in recurrent customer spending (78.1% of net revenue) in FY2026, creating high-margin recurring cash flows.
Hardware Inflation and Elongated Console Replacement Cycles
Định vị
Take-Two Interactive occupies a bifurcated position within the global gaming ecosystem. In premium console and PC entertainment, the company possesses tier-1 intellectual property authority rivaling Electronic Arts ($52.4B enterprise value), underpinned by Rockstar Games and 2K. In mobile gaming, Zynga provides scale ($3,333.0M net revenue in FY2026), giving Take-Two broad exposure across platforms. Concurrently, international diversification ($2,716.0M non-US revenue) reduces domestic market dependence. However, Take-Two carries a higher debt load ($2,958.3M total debt) and elevated pre-tax cost of debt (19.78%) relative to peers, rendering its capital structure more vulnerable to execution slippage.2,3,4,8
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
0%
At $202.73 as of October 2, 2026, shares trade at a 105.4% premium to intrinsic fair value, implying an expected return of -51.3%. Because the price exceeds even the Bull case valuation ceiling of $130.31 by over 55%, capital allocation requires a 0% position weighting to eliminate severe capital loss exposure.4
Rủi ro
Risk management requires disciplined capital preservation given the extreme 105.4% market premium over intrinsic fair value ($202.73 market price vs $98.70 intrinsic fair value). The primary tactical risk is short-term headline euphoria and retail momentum ahead of game marketing beats. Investors should resist speculative optimism, maintain a 0% allocation, and enforce quarterly checkpoints tracking recurrent customer spending ($5,196.6M baseline), mobile user acquisition marketing inflation, and total debt servicing ($2,958.3M total debt).
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
> $130.31
Avoid / No Entry
Shares trade well above the upper boundary of the intrinsic fair value range ($130.31), offering deeply unfavorable risk-adjusted return profiles even under optimistic commercial scenarios.
$98.70
Underwrite and Re-evaluate Fundamentals
The intrinsic fair value midpoint, where risk-reward reaches parity based on normalized FY2028 consensus earnings power of $5.29 EPS.
At $202.73, Take-Two trades at an unsustainable 105.4% premium to its house intrinsic fair value midpoint of $98.70, embedding multi-year perfection and leaving no safety margin for development delays or mobile live-service margin compression.4
Tactical & Momentum Investors
Avoid
While pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI are unprecedented, positive catalyst pricing is largely exhausted at current levels, with high forward multiples (28.17x forward P/E) vulnerable to severe multiple derating if post-launch engagement or live-service monetization stutters.4,5
Long-Term Core Equity Investors
Avoid
Take-Two's financial profile remains pre-profit on a trailing GAAP basis with -$298.2M net loss in FY2026 and $2,958.3M in debt. Fundamental capital preservation dictates rotating capital into fairly valued peers such as Electronic Arts until TTWO's market price reflects realistic development and execution risk.4,7
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Bán
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. is rated Sell with a fair value midpoint of $98.70 USD against a market price of $202.73 USD as of 2026-10-02, representing -51.31% implied downside and a 105.4% market price premium.4
While Take-Two commands premier interactive intellectual property and generated $5,196.6M in recurrent customer spending in FY2026, current market pricing aggressively discounts years of peak operating leverage and flawlessly executed multi-year live services, ignoring trailing GAAP losses of -$298.2M, heavy debt leverage ($2,958.3M total debt), and extreme platform distribution concentration (top 5 platform partners account for 80.6% of net revenue).
§15Your notes
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Under the Bear case, title delivery milestones slip past the target window, mobile user acquisition cost inflation persists, and post-launch live-service monetization encounters player friction. Recurrent customer spending drops below 70% of revenue, failing to absorb high fixed development costs and annual stock-based compensation ($305.3M in FY2026). Net debt servicing obligations on $2,958.3M total debt at a 19.78% pre-tax cost of debt drain cash balances ($1,545.5M). FY2028 diluted EPS falls toward the consensus low of $2.03, and the market derates terminal valuation toward 15.0x P/E.
Platform Take-Rate Rigidity and Mobile UA Cost Inflation
With 80.6% of revenue concentrated across top 5 platform partners and recurrent customer spending generating $5,196.6M, escalating mobile user acquisition costs and rigid platform storefront take rates prevent operating margin from reaching the targeted 20.5%, capping normalized margins at 14.5% over a 24-month horizon and resulting in a -24.0% fair value impact.5,8
FV impact
-5.3%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 24 months
Post-Launch Live-Service Fatigue and Multiple De-Rating
At $202.73 as of October 2, 2026, valuation bakes in high terminal multiple expectations (20.0x P/E). If recurrent spending softens following commercial launch (Q1 FY2027 recurrent spending declined 1%), the market derates TTWO toward historical publisher trough multiples, reducing terminal valuation by 20% toward 16.0x over an 18-month horizon with an estimated -20.0% fair value impact.4,5
FV impact
-13.9%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Debt Refinancing Stress and Cost of Capital Expansion
Take-Two carries $2,958.3M of total debt with an elevated pre-tax cost of debt of 19.78% and computed WACC of 9.75%. Further credit rating pressure or refinancing at wider credit spreads would drive WACC up by 200 bps to 11.75% over a 12-month horizon, creating an estimated fair value impact of -18.5%.2,4
Extreme distribution channel concentration exacerbating vulnerability to unilateral digital storefront fee increases and receivable collection timing risks.
Credit spread widening, credit rating pressure, or debt refinancing stress expanding the cost of capital and compressing discounted cash flow present value.
Hiện tại:9.75% (pre-tax debt cost of 19.78% on $2,958.3M total debt)
Network Effects (Multiplayer Ecosystems and Virtual Economies)
— Multiplayer live services create social lock-in and persistent engagement in GTA Online and NBA 2K. Recurrent customer spending reached $5,196.6M in FY2026, comprising 78.1% of consolidated net revenue and expanding to 84% of net bookings in Q1 FY2027. Player network effects in these virtual economies create high switching costs that sustain cash flow between major releases.
Moderate
03Distribution Scale and Global Publishing Footprint — Global publishing and digital delivery infrastructure enables worldwide deployment across console, PC, and mobile platforms. Digital online delivery generated $6,459.7M or 97.0% of net revenue in FY2026, with mobile contributing $3,333.0M (50.1% of total) and non-US international markets delivering $2,716.0M (40.8% of total).Moderate
Mobile User Acquisition Cost Inflation and Player Churn
medium
6-18 months
Reallocating marketing expenditures toward proven evergreen mobile franchises, optimizing ad spend, and cross-promoting Zynga titles using core console intellectual properties.5
Flagship Milestone Delivery Slippage and Fixed Cost Cash Burn
high
12-18 months
Staggering annualized sports releases (NBA 2K, WWE) and relying on continuous digital live-service monetization ($5,196.6M in FY2026 recurrent spending) to support liquidity while containing capital expenditures ($162.8M in FY2026).7,8
60,2%
Method
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (19,15 US$) plus discounted terminal value (63,45 US$) minus signed per current share (5,18 US$) equals the 77,41 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Under the Bull case, the commercial launch of Grand Theft Auto VI achieves historic commercial velocity, supported by unprecedented pre-order demand across standard and deluxe editions. FY2028 net revenue accelerates beyond the consensus mean ($9,254.4M) toward the Street-high estimate of $11,192.1M. High digital delivery (97.0% of revenue) and operating leverage over fixed development R&D drive operating margins toward peer benchmarks (Electronic Arts' 25.88%). Diluted EPS reaches the consensus high of $8.48 in FY2028, generating robust free cash flow that allows rapid debt repayment and share repurchases.1,3,5,8
Take-Two's capital allocation reflects the capital intensity of its development cycle and the debt legacy of major acquisitions. As of March 31, 2026, cash and cash equivalents totaled $1,545.5M against total debt of $2,958.3M, yielding a net debt position of $1,412.8M ($969.0M net debt under valuation model adjustments). The capital structure features a high pre-tax cost of debt of 19.78%, driving an overall computed WACC of 9.75%. Physical capital expenditures were modest at $162.8M in FY2026, as development capital is primarily expensed or capitalized into software rather than physical plant. The company pays no common dividend (0% payout) and repurchases are suspended during peak development, directing all free cash flow toward software completion and balance sheet preservation. Ongoing stock-based compensation of $305.3M in FY2026 continues to expand the diluted share base (186.98M shares outstanding).
Five digital storefront and retail partners accounted for 80.6% of FY2026 net revenue, with the second customer at 24.9% and first at 22.5%.
High customer concentration subjects distribution economics to platform gatekeeper take rates (15% to 30%) and creates significant accounts receivable exposure (top three represent 57.7% of gross receivables).
Market Pricing Pre-Pays the Upcoming Commercial Inflection
Consensus projects diluted EPS to inflect from -$1.62 in FY2026 to $1.84 in FY2027 and $5.29 in FY2028 on revenue of $9,254.4M.
Current market valuation of $202.73 fully prices in an extraordinary operational inflection, leaving no margin of safety if delivery timelines or margin targets slip.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.LYV
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý46,58 US$Report-date price168,77 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư50 / 100
Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.WBD
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý24,08 US$Report-date price30,94 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư39 / 100
Biên
TTWO
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.
$37.9B
28.2x
5.7x
50.9x
-9.0%
—
EA
Electronic Arts Inc.
$52.9B
21.8x
6.7x
30.4x
16.5%
25.9%
NTES
NetEase, Inc.
$75.1B
10.9x
0.6x
5.0x
20.4%
40.2%
LYV
Live Nation Entertainment Inc.
$39.3B
86.5x
1.5x
27.9x
17.7%
6.7%
WBD
Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.
$77.6B
93.8x
2.1x
13.8x
-8.8%
5.1%
neutral
Rising component and semiconductor input costs elevate hardware pricing, potentially delaying next-generation console launches. While higher hardware price points constrain rapid installed base expansion, premier software franchises maintain resilient consumer demand, as shown by exceptional pre-orders across standard and deluxe tiers.
Digital Gatekeeper Concentration and Storefront Fee Dependency
negative
Distribution remains concentrated across a small group of digital platform gatekeepers, with Take-Two's top five customers accounting for 80.6% of net revenue. Standard platform commissions (15% to 30%) and platform store policies limit publisher pricing autonomy and restrict gross margin expansion.
At or below the conservative Bear case valuation boundary, providing an adequate margin of safety against potential title slippage and mobile advertising headwinds.
