Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (ARE)

In the Base case, Alexandria achieves Fair value of $43.02 representing a return of 3.4% with a probability of 55.0%. This path requires steady lease absorption across the development pipeline, normalization of construction capital expenditures toward guided levels, and successful completion of planned capital recycling to stabilize leverage. The scenario would be disconfirmed if cash renewal spreads deteriorate deeper than expected or if tenant downtime extends across upcoming expirations.

• Core mega-campus occupancy stabilizes as newly delivered space reaches occupancy
• Annual construction capital expenditures moderate in line with management guidance
• Asset sales and joint venture transactions close without significant pricing discounts