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BK trades against a final fair-value range of $69.61-$123.17, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $69.6, high $123, with mid-point at $98.4.
Stock analysis

BK fair value $70–$123

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-08下次更新: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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股价
$130.85
▼ -32.46 (-24.81%)
公允价值
$98
$70–$123
评级
减持
confidence 88/100
上行空间
-24.8%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$83.63
MoS level · 15%
市值
$89.8B
P/E fwd 13.6
英文原文ZH
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§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $98 with high case $123.
  • Implied downside of 24.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$98
Margin of safety
-33.0%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$130.85Price
Low $69.61
Mid $98.39
High $123.17

BK trades against a final fair-value range of $69.61-$123.17, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for institutional
    High switching costs for institutional clients
  • Massive scale in custody and
    Massive scale in custody and administration
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-checks relies on inappropriate industrial-style DCF models.

§2 看空情景

A stress environment combining a 20% equity market drawdown and 200 bps of rate cuts would simultaneously hit fee revenues and net interest incomeNet Interest IncomeNet Interest Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., severely testing fixed-cost leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA..

该论点可能失败的方式

Severe Market Correction

· Medium

A prolonged global market downturn drastically reduces Assets Under Custody/Administration (AUC/A), directly compressing fee-based revenue streams below fixed operating costs.

FV impact
-15% to -20%
Trigger
12-24 months

Accelerated Rate Cuts

· High

Central banks aggressively cut interest rates faster than expected, severely compressing net interest margins on uninvested cash balances.

FV impact
-10% to -15%
Trigger
6-12 months

Regulatory Capital Hike

· Medium

G-SIB regulatory framework adjustments force significant increases in required equity capital, depressing ROE and residual income valuations.

FV impact
-20% to -25%
Trigger
18-36 months
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Consecutive quarters of declining AUC/A balancesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Compression of net interest margin below historical averagesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Elevated technology and compliance spend exceeding revenue growthMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major institutional custody mandates to competitorsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory actions indicating impending capital surcharge increasesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期间2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
营业收入$15.63B$16.19B$17.34B$18.26B$19.76B+6.0%
毛利——————
营业利润——————
净利润$3.76B$2.56B$3.30B$4.53B$5.55B+10.2%
每股收益（摊薄）—$2.90$4.00$5.80$7.40+26.4%
EBITDA——————
研发——————
销售管理费用$6.34B$6.80B$7.10B$6.89B$6.95B+2.3%

质量评分

OCF / 净利润
1.21×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Pass
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
—
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

现金流

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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CASH FLOW FAQ

BK cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for BK (BK) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

BK — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $131 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $98.4 (range $69.6–$123), which implies roughly 24.8% downside to the midpoint.

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