Carrier Global Corporation (CARR)

NYSE: CARR · USD

$56.1

-1.77 (-3.1%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-02

Our latest published analysis: CARR rated Sell

Carrier Global Corporation's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$39.0 / share

Potential value

$53.2 / share

Upside to FV

-29.2%

from $56.1

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$45.8B
Revenue (ttm)	22.1B
Net income (ttm)	1.2B
EPS (ttm)	$1.44
Shares out	824.3M
P/E (trailing)	38.8x
P/E (forward)	16.3x
Dividend	$0.96 (1.70%)
Volume	8,688,922
Beta	1.29

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 22.1B
Net income (ttm): 1.2B
EPS (ttm): $1.44
P/E (trailing): 38.8x
P/E (forward): 16.3x
Market cap: $45.8B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$20.61B	$17.29B	$18.95B	$22.49B	$21.75B	+1.3%
Gross profit	$5.98B	$4.30B	$6.38B	$5.98B	$5.62B	-1.5%
Operating income	$2.65B	$3.98B	$2.16B	$2.65B	$2.17B	-4.8%
Net income	$1.66B	$3.53B	$1.35B	$5.60B	$1.48B	-2.8%
EPS (diluted)	$1.87	$4.10	$1.58	$6.15	$1.72	-2.1%
EBITDA	$2.70B	$4.45B	$2.30B	$4.09B	$3.53B	+7.0%
R&D	$503.0M	$416.0M	$493.0M	$686.0M	$625.0M	+5.6%
SG&A	$3.12B	$1.98B	$2.61B	$3.20B	$3.09B	-0.2%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	卖出
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	卖出
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	强力买入
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	持有
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	113B	25.3x	5.1x	62.8%	+7.7%	+4.5%	持有
ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	持有

Base and Bull scenarios

Base50%

Price target

$39.04

-29.2% from spot

The modal base case projects steady revenue growth driven by non-discretionary replacement cycles in Climate Solutions Americas and gradual margin normalization in Europe. Operating margins widen moderately over the explicit forecast horizon, supported by digital service expansion and modest integration benefits. Intrinsic value is anchored at Fair value $39.04 with a target of $39.04, representing 50.0% probability and an implied return of -29.2% from $55.12.

Climate Solutions Americas maintains steady replacement-driven volume
European heat pump margins stabilize gradually as channel destocking abates
Operating profit margins improve steadily toward intermediate normalized targets
Capital intensity remains modest, allowing steady debt reduction

Bull25%

Price target

$53.19

-3.5% from spot

In the upside scenario, rapid acceleration of data-center liquid cooling demand and European heat-pump subsidy stabilization lift consolidated revenue growth and operating profitability. Integration synergies materialize swiftly, while Americas commercial HVAC maintains pricing discipline. Operating margins expand toward peer benchmarks, driving multiple expansion toward $53.19 at $53.19 with an estimated probability of 25.0% and an implied return of -3.5%.

Rapid expansion in data center thermal management and commercial chiller demand
Stabilization and recovery of European residential heat pump conversion incentives
Consolidated operating margins expand toward pure-play industrial peer levels
Accelerated free cash flow generation enables swift balance sheet deleveraging

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($39.04). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.0%	$41.6	$42.3	$43.0	$43.8	$44.7
8.5%	$39.7	$40.3	$41.0	$41.6	$42.4
9.0%	$38.2	$38.7	$39.0	$39.8	$40.4
9.5%	$36.8	$37.2	$37.6	$38.1	$38.6
10.0%	$35.5	$35.9	$36.3	$36.7	$37.1

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E16.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E39.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE9

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All CARR indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

274

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 274 of 274 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001783180
Company name	Carrier Global Corporation
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	14448C104
Earnings date	2026-10-29
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	47,000
Employees change	-1,000
Employees growth	-2.08%
Enterprise value	$57.3B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	2019
In index	SP500
Industry	Building Products & Equipment
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US14448C1045
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-05
Last earnings date	2026-07-28
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$46.2B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-10-29
Options	Yes
Price	$56.06
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	3585
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	CARR
U.S. state	Florida
Website	https://www.carrier.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	22.98x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	20.59x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	26.56x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	22.27x
Earnings yield	2.58%
EV/Earnings	47.18x
EV/EBIT	31.8x
EV/EBITDA	18.61x
EV/FCF	29.85x
EV/Sales	2.6x
FCF / EV yield	3.35%
FCF yield	4.15%
Forward EV/Sales	2.38x
Forward P/E	18.49x
Forward P/S	1.93x
Graham number	22.75397
Graham upside	-59.67%
Industry forward P/E	21.38x
Industry P/E	36.44x
Lynch fair value	$7.22
Lynch upside	-87.2%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	24.94x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	20.01x
P/B ratio	3.63x
P/E ratio	38.82x
P/FCF ratio	24.12x
P/OCF ratio	19.48x
P/S ratio	2.1x
PEG ratio	1.66x
Price/EBITDA ratio	15.04x
Sector forward P/E	26.03x
Sector P/E	40.37x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	8.19%
EBITDA margin	13.99%
Effective tax rate	3.84%
FCF margin	8.72%
Gross margin	24.69%
Operating margin	8.19%
Pretax margin	6.01%
Profit margin	5.52%
Profit per employee	$25,957
Profitable quarters	30
Profitable years	9
Revenue per employee	$470,383
ROA	2.98%
ROA (5Y)	4.66%
ROCE	6.43%
ROE	8.97%
ROE (5Y)	21.15%
ROIC	7.03%
ROIC (5Y)	10%
SBC / revenue	0.28%
Tax / revenue	0.23%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-67.87%
EPS growth (Q)	-11.81%
EPS growth (QoQ)	115.2%
EPS growth 3Y	-16.92%
EPS growth 5Y	-12.43%
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	255.72%
FCF growth (Q)	42.61%
FCF growth 3Y	-1.9%
FCF growth 5Y	4.72%
Gross profit growth	-9.71%
Gross profit growth (Q)	-2.7%
Gross profit growth 3Y	1.05%
Gross profit growth 5Y	-1.49%
Net income growth	-69.51%
Net income growth (Q)	-15.23%
Net income growth (QoQ)	110.5%
Net income growth 3Y	-17.26%
Net income growth 5Y	-13.34%
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	139.9%
OCF growth (Q)	42.84%
OCF growth (QoQ)	1,073.42%
OCF growth 3Y	-0.42%
OCF growth 5Y	4.88%
Operating income growth	-24.49%
Operating income growth (Q)	-4.71%
Operating income growth 3Y	-8.14%
Operating income growth 5Y	-6.65%
Revenue growth	-1.58%
Revenue growth (Q)	3.89%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	18.91%
Revenue growth 3Y	2.96%
Revenue growth 5Y	2.3%
Revenue growth quarters	2
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-459M
Depreciation and amortization	$1.3B
EBIT	$1.8B
EBITDA	$3.1B
EPS	$1.44
FCF per share	$2.34
Financing cash flow	$-2.3B
Free cash flow	$1.9B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.9B
Gross profit	$5.5B
Income taxes	$51M
Investing cash flow	$-464M
Net borrowing	$704M
Net cash flow	$-455M
Net income	$1.2B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$2.3B
Operating income	$1.8B
Revenue	$22.1B
Stock-based compensation	$63M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	2.54
Book value per share	$15.94
Debt / EBITDA	3.78
Debt / equity	0.92
Debt / FCF	6.43
Goodwill	$15.3B
Interest coverage	3.87
Long-term assets	$28B
Long-term liabilities	$14.7B
Net cash (debt)	$-11.1B
Net cash / market cap	-23.76%
Net debt / EBITDA	3.57
Net debt / equity	0.82
Net debt / FCF	5.73
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$3.7B
Shareholders' equity	$13.5B
Tangible book value	$-7.9B
Tangible book value per share	$-9.55
Total assets	$37.4B
Total cash	$1.3B
Total debt	$12.4B
Total liabilities	$23.9B
WACC	9.71%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.58
Current assets	$9.4B
Current liabilities	$9.2B
Current ratio	1.02
Inventory turnover	5.9
Net working capital	$477M
Quick ratio	0.55
Working capital	$183M
Working capital turnover	29.78

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	5.05%
Dividend growth	6.67%
Dividend growth (3Y)	9.06%
Dividend growth (5Y)	14.87%
Dividend growth years	0
Dividend payment date	2026-11-18
Dividend payment years	7
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$0.96
Dividend yield	1.7%
Ex-dividend date	2026-10-29
FCF payout ratio	41.05%
Last dividend	$0.24
Payout ratio	66.48%
Shareholder yield	6.75%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
150-day SMA	$62.34
1D price change	-3.06%
1M price change	-0.48%
1M total return	-0.48%
1W price change	-0.12%
1W total return	-0.12%
1Y price change	-3.76%
1Y return CAGR	-2.28%
1Y total return	-2.28%
20-day SMA	$55.71
200-day SMA	$61.82
3M price change	-19.08%
3M total return	-19.08%
3Y price change	20.65%
3Y return CAGR	7.77%
3Y total return	25.17%
50-day SMA	$56.63
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$76.76
52-week high date	2026-06-25
52-week low	$50.24
52-week low date	2026-01-06
5Y price change	5.53%
5Y return CAGR	2.53%
5Y total return	13.28%
6M price change	-9.38%
6M total return	-8.73%
All-time high	$83.32
All-time high date	2024-10-15
All-time low	$11.50
All-time low date	2020-03-23
Average true range (ATR)	$1.47
Average volume	4.9M
Beta (1Y)	0.8
Beta (2Y)	1.07
Beta (5Y)	1.29
Change from 52-week high	-26.97%
Change from 52-week low	11.58%
Change from all-time high	-32.67%
Change from all-time low	387.83%
Change from open	-2.76%
Day's gap	-0.31%
Dollar volume	$487.1M
High price	$57.71
Low price	$56.00
Monthly RSI	46.11
Open price	$57.65
Position in 52-week range	3.51%
Premarket change	-0.05%
Premarket close	$57.83
Premarket price	$57.80
Premarket volume	28.2K
Previous close	$57.83
Price vs 150-day SMA	-10.01%
Price vs 20-day SMA	0.7%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-9.25%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-0.93%
Relative volume	1.76
RSI	49.4
Sharpe ratio	-0
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.23
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.1
Sortino ratio	0.15
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.51
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.33
Volume	8.7M
Weekly RSI	42.48
YTD price change	6.17%
YTD total return	7.39%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	784.1M
Float percentage	95.12%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.75%
Shares change (YoY)	-5.05%
Shares held by insiders	0.17%
Shares held by institutions	89.84%
Shares outstanding	824.3M
Short % of float	2.78%
Short % of shares	2.65%
Short ratio	3.2 days

Deeper analysis on CARR

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this CARR report

What is the latest published CARR stock rating?

Carrier Global Corporation is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-02. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full CARR analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-02, lives at /stocks/CARR/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for CARR?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-02 gives CARR a fair value of USD 39 and a potential value of USD 53. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the CARR page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-02). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellCARR · Fair value $39.0-29.2%

Read full analysis →

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR)

Our latest published analysis: CARR rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · CARR

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All CARR indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on CARR

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	5.0
Profitability	5.0
Revenue Growth	4.5
Risk Assessment	6.5
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	6.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5