ConocoPhillips (COP)

NYSE: COP · USD

$149

+1.04 (+0.7%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-26

Our latest published analysis: COP rated Hold

ConocoPhillips's published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$126 / share

Potential value

$176 / share

Upside to FV

-1.3%

from $149

Moat

5.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$155.4B
Revenue (ttm)	64.5B
Net income (ttm)	9.3B
EPS (ttm)	$7.53
Shares out	1.2B
P/E (trailing)	19.8x
P/E (forward)	12.7x
Dividend	$3.36 (2.25%)
Volume	3,613,173
Beta	0.24

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 64.5B
Net income (ttm): 9.3B
EPS (ttm): $7.53
P/E (trailing): 19.8x
P/E (forward): 12.7x
Market cap: $155.4B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$34.59B	$61.05B	$48.52B	$49.42B	$51.82B	+10.6%
Gross profit	$14.77B	$30.01B	$18.20B	$16.38B	$14.79B	+0.0%
Operating income	$13.84B	$29.28B	$17.35B	$14.78B	$13.89B	+0.1%
Net income	$8.08B	$18.68B	$10.96B	$9.25B	$7.99B	-0.3%
EPS (diluted)	$6.07	$14.57	$9.06	$7.81	$6.35	+1.1%
EBITDA	$21.09B	$37.13B	$25.78B	$24.43B	$25.57B	+4.9%
R&D	$62.0M	$71.0M	$81.0M	$81.0M	$78.0M	+5.9%
SG&A	$719.0M	$623.0M	$705.0M	$1.16B	$893.0M	+5.6%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	持有
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	持有
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	卖出
BKR	Baker Hughes Company	54.3B	18.8x	1.9x	11.7%	+7.0%	+20.1%	卖出
CVX	Chevron Corporation	448.9B	22.0x	2.2x	8.2%	+12.6%	+54.1%	减持
EOG	EOG Resources Inc.	84.4B	12.6x	3.2x	19.8%	+14.1%	+55.9%	买入

Base and Bull scenarios

Base50%

Price target

$125.61

-1.3% from spot

The modal base case underwrites steady operational execution across the Lower 48 ($41.40B FY2025 revenue) and disciplined progression of Arctic and LNG programs. Operating margins normalize at 26.80%, while corporate reinvestment rates moderate from 25% in FY2026 to 20% in FY2029-FY2030. CapEx discipline and project delivery unlock the guided $7B annual free cash flow inflection by 2029. Diluted EPS tracks from $10.55 in FY2026 to $6.98 in FY2030, supported by share repurchases retiring share count from 1,278M to 1,381M, valued at a mid-cycle terminal P/E of 15.0x.

WTI crude prices track historical mid-cycle averages across the five-year forecast horizon
Corporate operating margin holds at normalized level of 26.8003%
Reinvestment rate decreases ratably from 25% (FY2026) to 20% (FY2029-FY2030)
Terminal multiple reflects mid-cycle multiple of 15.0x

Bull15%

Price target

$175.72

+38.0% from spot

Under the bull case, global hydrocarbon demand remains resilient, supported by Asian LNG import growth doubling toward 2050. ConocoPhillips successfully commissions the Willow Arctic development ahead of early 2029 schedule and expands commercial LNG supply toward 10 to 15 mtpa. Corporate free cash flow inflection easily surpasses $7B, allowing management to distribute over 45% of operating cash flow to shareholders via buybacks and dividends. Diluted EPS reaches $8.04 by 2030, commanding an 18.0x terminal P/E multiple.

Crude benchmark pricing sustained at elevated levels above mid-cycle bands through the projection horizon
Willow first oil achieves commercial production ahead of 2029 schedule with capex coming in below budget
Commercial LNG portfolio expands toward upper guidance bound of 15 mtpa
Terminal multiple expands to 18.0x on high-quality resource longevity

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($125.61). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.5%	1.8%	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%
5.6%	$140	$146	$153	$161	$171
6.1%	$128	$132	$138	$144	$151
6.6%	$118	$121	$126	$130	$136
7.1%	$109	$112	$116	$119	$124
7.6%	$102	$105	$108	$111	$114

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E12.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E17

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE14.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC11.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All COP indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

285

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001163165
Company name	ConocoPhillips
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	20825C104
Earnings date	2026-11-05
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	9,600
Employees change	-2,100
Employees growth	-17.95%
Enterprise value	$194.6B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1917
In index	SP500
Industry	Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US20825C1045
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-17
Last earnings date	2026-08-06
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2005-06-02
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$179B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-05
Options	Yes
Price	$149.00
Price currency	USD
Sector	Energy
SIC code	2911
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	COP
U.S. state	Texas
Website	https://www.conocophillips.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	19.2x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	128.58x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	14.04x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	12.47x
Earnings yield	5.05%
EV/Earnings	21.17x
EV/EBIT	13.17x
EV/EBITDA	7.32x
EV/FCF	19.47x
EV/Sales	3.04x
FCF / EV yield	5.14%
FCF yield	5.58%
Forward EV/Sales	2.71x
Forward P/E	12.4x
Forward P/S	2.49x
Graham number	95.97681
Graham upside	-36.06%
Industry forward P/E	10.78x
Industry P/E	16.09x
Lynch fair value	$188.16
Lynch upside	25.34%
P/B ratio	2.72x
P/E ratio	19.8x
P/FCF ratio	17.92x
P/OCF ratio	8.22x
P/S ratio	2.8x
PEG ratio	0.77x
Price / tangible book value	2.76x
Price/EBITDA ratio	6.73x
Sector forward P/E	10.06x
Sector P/E	15.08x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	23.08%
EBITDA margin	41.55%
Effective tax rate	36.5%
FCF margin	15.61%
Gross margin	47.57%
Operating margin	23.08%
Pretax margin	22.68%
Profit margin	14.4%
Profit per employee	$963,854
Profitable quarters	22
Profitable years	5
Revenue per employee	$6.7M
ROA	7.53%
ROA (5Y)	10.96%
ROCE	13.31%
ROE	14.18%
ROE (5Y)	22.51%
ROIC	11.63%
ROIC (5Y)	18.04%
Tax / revenue	8.28%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	0.81%
EPS growth (Q)	106.97%
EPS growth (QoQ)	81.78%
EPS growth 3Y	-10.26%
EPS growth 5Y	37.43%
EPS growth quarters	1
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	45.37%
FCF growth (Q)	2,116.08%
FCF growth (QoQ)	227.39%
FCF growth 3Y	-9.86%
FCF growth 5Y	19.01%
Gross profit growth	7.06%
Gross profit growth (Q)	53.96%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-2.1%
Gross profit growth 5Y	18.75%
Net income growth	1.06%
Net income growth (Q)	99.44%
Net income growth (QoQ)	79.48%
Net income growth 3Y	-10.44%
Net income growth 5Y	37.97%
Net income growth quarters	1
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	10.62%
OCF growth (Q)	113.31%
OCF growth (QoQ)	73.08%
OCF growth 10Y	15.45%
OCF growth 3Y	-3.75%
OCF growth 5Y	19.84%
Operating income growth	2.84%
Operating income growth (Q)	116.39%
Operating income growth 3Y	-10.43%
Operating income growth 5Y	39.19%
Revenue growth	8.54%
Revenue growth (Q)	35.48%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	20.84%
Revenue growth 10Y	10.32%
Revenue growth 3Y	-2.14%
Revenue growth 5Y	16.81%
Revenue growth quarters	1
Revenue growth years	1

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-11.9B
Depreciation and amortization	$11.9B
EBIT	$14.9B
EBITDA	$26.8B
EPS	$7.53
FCF per share	$8.38
Financing cash flow	$-9.8B
Free cash flow	$10.1B
Gross profit	$30.7B
Income taxes	$5.3B
Investing cash flow	$-10.3B
Net borrowing	$-282M
Net cash flow	$1.7B
Net income	$9.3B
Operating income	$14.9B
Revenue	$64.5B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	3.1
Book value per share	$54.40
Debt / EBITDA	0.85
Debt / equity	0.36
Debt / FCF	2.31
Interest coverage	18.64
Long-term assets	$105.1B
Long-term liabilities	$46.5B
Net cash (debt)	$-15.6B
Net cash / market cap	-8.65%
Net debt / EBITDA	0.58
Net debt / equity	0.24
Net debt / FCF	1.55
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$91.2B
Shareholders' equity	$65.3B
Tangible book value	$65.3B
Tangible book value per share	$54.40
Total assets	$124.3B
Total cash	$7.7B
Total debt	$23.3B
Total liabilities	$58.9B
WACC	5.21%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.52
Current assets	$19.2B
Current liabilities	$12.5B
Current ratio	1.54
Inventory turnover	17.9
Net working capital	$-487M
Quick ratio	1.18
Working capital	$6.7B
Working capital turnover	13.3

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-0.27%
Dividend growth	7.69%
Dividend growth (10Y)	8.47%
Dividend growth (3Y)	-5.17%
Dividend growth (5Y)	14.33%
Dividend growth years	1
Dividend payment date	2026-09-01
Dividend payment years	56
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$3.36
Dividend yield	2.26%
Ex-dividend date	2026-08-17
FCF payout ratio	40.11%
Last dividend	$0.84
Payout ratio	44.64%
Shareholder yield	1.97%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	239.53%
10Y return CAGR	16.49%
10Y total return	359.9%
150-day SMA	$124.07
15Y price change	105.07%
15Y return CAGR	10.46%
15Y total return	344.61%
1D price change	0.7%
1M price change	17.36%
1M total return	17.36%
1W price change	2.36%
1W total return	2.36%
1Y price change	68.45%
1Y return CAGR	73.82%
1Y total return	73.76%
20-day SMA	$140.04
200-day SMA	$120.78
20Y price change	144.15%
20Y return CAGR	9.59%
20Y total return	524.64%
3M price change	29.26%
3M total return	30.12%
3Y price change	26.82%
3Y return CAGR	11.48%
3Y total return	38.55%
50-day SMA	$135.36
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$152.77
52-week high date	2026-10-23
52-week low	$85.57
52-week low date	2025-11-06
5Y price change	100.72%
5Y return CAGR	18.96%
5Y total return	138.23%
6M price change	22.78%
6M total return	24.51%
All-time high	$152.77
All-time high date	2026-10-23
All-time low	$1.69
All-time low date	1970-02-17
Average true range (ATR)	$3.51
Average volume	5.5M
Beta (1Y)	-1.19
Beta (2Y)	0.14
Beta (5Y)	0.24
Change from 52-week high	-2.47%
Change from 52-week low	74.13%
Change from all-time high	-2.21%
Change from all-time low	8,750.41%
Change from open	0.28%
Day's gap	0.43%
Dollar volume	$538.4M
High price	$150.37
Low price	$148.45
Monthly RSI	65.62
Open price	$148.59
Position in 52-week range	28.65%
Premarket change	0.7%
Premarket close	$147.96
Premarket price	$149.00
Premarket volume	1.9K
Previous close	$147.96
Price vs 150-day SMA	20.41%
Price vs 20-day SMA	6.68%
Price vs 200-day SMA	23.7%
Price vs 50-day SMA	10.37%
Relative volume	0.65
RSI	69.18
Sharpe ratio	1.83
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.35
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.56
Sortino ratio	2.96
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.68
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.98
Volume	3.6M
Weekly RSI	67.29
YTD price change	59.59%
YTD total return	63.11%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	1.2B
Float percentage	99.79%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.86%
Shares change (YoY)	0.27%
Shares held by insiders	0.08%
Shares held by institutions	85.96%
Shares outstanding	1.2B
Short % of float	1.28%
Short % of shares	1.28%
Short ratio	2.2 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	172

Deeper analysis on COP

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this COP report

What is the latest published COP stock rating?

ConocoPhillips is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-26. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full COP analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-26, lives at /stocks/COP/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for COP?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-26 gives COP a fair value of USD 126 and a potential value of USD 176. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the COP page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-26). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldCOP · Fair value $126-1.3%

Read full analysis →

ConocoPhillips (COP)

Our latest published analysis: COP rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · COP

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All COP indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on COP

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	4.5
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	7.0
Profitability	5.5
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	7.5
Competitive Moat	5.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	5.5