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COR trades against a final fair-value range of $342.15-$514.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $342, high $515, with mid-point at $428.
Stock analysis

COR COR fair value $342–$515

COR
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-13下次更新: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.4Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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股价
$260.93
▲ +166.64 (+63.86%)
公允价值
$428
$342–$515
评级
强力买入
confidence 78/100
上行空间
+63.9%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$363.43
MoS level · 15%
市值
$50.8B
P/E fwd 13.2
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§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $428 with high case $515.
  • Implied upside of 63.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$428
Margin of safety
+39.0%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$260.93Price
Low $342.15
Mid $427.57
High $514.68

COR trades against a final fair-value range of $342.15-$514.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cost Advantage
    Massive scale as a dominant triopoly member ensures procurement efficiency and low per-unit costs.
  • Network Effect
    Irreplaceable intermediary connecting highly fragmented retail pharmacies with global biopharma manufacturers.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is incorrectly penalizing Cencora for short-term working capital anomalies, masking the highly durable 23% ROIC.

§2 看空情景

A negative working capitalWorking capitalCurrent assets minus current liabilities. The capital tied up in the operating cycle (receivables and inventory) net of trade financing (payables). spiral combined with sustained operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items. compression below 1.1% would break the capital return algorithm, rendering share repurchases dilutive.

该论点可能失败的方式

Severe Drug Pricing Intervention

15%· Low

Aggressive legislative action structurally reduces US branded and generic drug pricing, crushing distribution fee economics and compressing margins below 1%.

FV impact
Severe (FV ~342)

Direct-to-Consumer Biopharma Pivot

10%· Low

Manufacturers systematically bypass wholesale networks for specialty and blockbuster treatments, structurally degrading top-line growth and ROIC.

FV impact
Severe (FV < 300)

Generic Deflation Acceleration

20%· Medium

Intense generic price deflation outpaces unit volume growth, eroding gross profit dollars and causing operating leverage to inflect negatively.

FV impact
Moderate
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Operating margins persistently dropping below the 1.1% historical floor.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative free cash flow persists beyond short-term working capital anomalies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major contract losses with top-tier pharmacy chains or health systems.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant manufacturer shifts to direct distribution models for high-margin specialty drugs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Legislative shifts implementing structural caps on wholesale distribution margins.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期间2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
营业收入$238.59B$262.17B$293.96B$321.33B+10.4%
毛利$8.30B$8.96B$9.91B$11.48B+11.4%
营业利润$2.75B$2.69B$3.16B$3.93B+12.6%
净利润$1.70B$1.75B$1.51B$1.55B-2.9%
每股收益(摊薄)$8.04$8.53$7.53$7.96-0.3%
EBITDA$3.10B$3.37B$3.37B$3.75B+6.5%
研发
销售管理费用$4.85B$5.31B$5.66B$6.49B+10.2%

质量评分

OCF / 净利润
2.49×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Fail
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
23.1%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

COR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, COR looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $261 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $428 (range $342–$515), which implies roughly 63.9% upside to the midpoint.
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Same archetype: mature-compounder