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Accelerating international warehouse expansion in Canada and Asia delivering structurally higher operating margins (4.33% to 5.01% vs 3.44% in the US), with China executive tier adoption exceeding expectations, supporting compound cash flow growth toward Potential value of $571.07.
Forward valuation multiple de-rating below 24.0x or US comp sales growth slowing below 2.5% YoY.
We recommend a Sell on Costco Wholesale Corporation because the report-date share price sits at more than double its intrinsic Fair value.
Our house rating is Sell. For an everyday investor, this means new capital should not be committed to Costco at current trading levels, and existing holders should systematically sell or trim their positions to lock in gains and avoid severe valuation drawdown.
On the analysis date of September 18, 2026, the share price was $895.31. This price stands 103.9% above our Fair value of $439.14 and 56.8% above our Potential value of $571.07. The market price implies a 50.95% decline to reach fundamental Fair value.3
The biggest risk to an investor holding the shares is multiple de-rating. Costco trades at 40.0 times forward earnings, compared with peers trading between 16.6 and 20.5 times.
The strongest operational driver supporting long-term value is international warehouse expansion. Warehouses in Canada and Other International generate higher operating margins (5.01% and 4.33%) than domestic clubs (3.44%). As global clubs scale and depot automation lowers freight costs, higher cash flows per share can support value up toward Potential value of $571.07, although this remains far below the report-date price.6
Warehouses in Canada and overseas generate higher operating margins (4.33% to 5.01%) than domestic clubs (3.44%), providing profitable growth as new units open.6
Active capital expenditure of $5.50B expands cross-dock depots and private-label manufacturing, widening price separation and boosting long-term cash flows.45
Consolidated revenue of $275.24B in FY2025 allows Costco to negotiate industry-leading volume purchasing terms and cap merchandise markups at 14%-15%, creating an insurmountable pricing barrier for competitors.5
We rate Costco Wholesale Corporation a Sell because the report-date price of $895.31 trades at a 103.9% premium to intrinsic Fair value of $439.14, leaving investors exposed to severe downside if extended valuation multiples normalize.3
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW offers merchandise and services in the following categories: It is difficult to consistently and successfully predict the products and services that its members will desire. Its success depends, in part, on its ability to identify and respond to trends in demographics and consumer preferences.
The following table provides the revenue, significant expenses, and operating income for the Company's reportable segments: The following table provides depreciation and amortization and other asset related information for the Company's reportable segments:
A concurrent stress test combining multiple de-rating toward peer medians (forward P/E compressing below 24.0x), gross margin compression from defensive price cuts in food staples, and domestic comp deceleration pushes intrinsic equity valuation down toward the low end of the committee range at $361.07. Under sustained commodity cost inflation and aggressive mass merchant delivery promotions, Costco's capital expenditure program ($5.50B in FY2025) would fail to yield anticipated operating leverage, severely depressing free cash flow conversion.
The downside scenario reflects multiple contraction toward mass merchant peer averages alongside domestic same-store sales deceleration and freight inflation. Downside risks are tracked through operating checkpoints including merchandise gross margin resilience, new warehouse productivity, and member renewal rates. Disconfirmation of the downside thesis would require a sharp re-acceleration in domestic club foot traffic and sustained gross margin expansion.
Costco trades at 40.0x forward P/E and 4.39x PEG, while mass merchant peers trade between 16.57x and 20.54x forward P/E. A 20% contraction in terminal multiple matches driver shock terminal_multiple_minus_20pct, reducing fair value by 20.0% if forward P/E compresses below 24.0x within 12 months.3
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
Valuation multiple de-rating toward mass retail peer medians (16.57x-20.54x) reflecting market acknowledgment of growth normalization.
当前：40.0x
触发警报：Below 24.0x
Erosion of member loyalty indicating competitive penetration by mass retailers and loss of customer pricing authority.
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates an entrenched wide economic moat anchored in a scale-driven cost advantage and high subscription-based switching costs. The company's business model relies on high inventory velocity, negative net working capital, and an aggressive pricing authority ethos where procurement savings are systematically returned to members rather than extracted as near-term gross margin. This flywheel drives extraordinary warehouse sales volumes that traditional grocery and mass retail competitors cannot replicate without impairing their unit economics.
Membership loyalty remains exceptionally durable, with North American renewal rates consistently exceeding 90% and global membership growth expanding 7% on an underlying basis. Membership fees flow almost entirely to operating income, subsidizing low merchandise markups and insulating the operating model against periodic freight and commodity cost shocks. This structural loyalty secures reliable customer foot traffic across economic cycles.
The company's competitive positioning is further reinforced by Kirkland Signature, which provides exclusive, high-quality merchandise at compelling price points, and an accelerating international warehouse footprint that captures higher segment operating margins in Canada (5.01%) and Other International (4.33%) relative to domestic US operations (3.44%).
Costco generates exceptional economic rent, evidenced by a return on invested capital of 24.18% that substantially exceeds its weighted average cost of capital of 8.45% and moderate cost of equity of 8.54%.2
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($439.14). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $5.6B after modeled reinvestment of $2.7B, with terminal value at 64.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Under the base outcome, representing 60.0% probability, the stock converges toward $439.14, generating an implied return of -51.0% from $895.31. This path assumes steady mid-single-digit revenue growth and gradual operating margin normalization as membership fee gains offset freight inflation. Disconfirmation would occur if North American renewal rates drop below historical standards or if warehouse traffic turns negative over two consecutive quarters.
An earnings beat driven by volume throughput and membership fee growth demonstrates operational strength, but because $895.31 remains elevated relative to $439.14, the valuation multiple still reflects excessive optimism.
In-line results confirm predictable compounder execution, but do nothing to justify the extended valuation premium relative to $439.14.
A quarterly miss directly threatens the growth narrative supporting the premium multiple, accelerating multiple contraction toward peer averages.
Earnings quality is exceptionally robust, characterized by rapid inventory turnover where merchandise is sold before supplier invoices are settled, generating sustained negative working capital and cash conversion that consistently exceeds net reported income. Operating cash flow conversion remains clean with minimal reliance on accruals, and receivables exposure is negligible due to immediate point-of-sale customer settlement. Capital expenditures are fully funded from organic cash generation without balance-sheet strain.
High renewal rates sustain upfront subscription fee cash flows that subsidize lower merchandise prices and drive customer traffic.
Operating cash flow reached $13,335M in FY2025, supporting free cash flow of $7,837M after $5,498M in capital reinvestment. Operating cash flow substantially exceeds net income of $8,099M, driven by a structurally negative working capital cycle where rapid inventory velocity enables customer cash collection prior to supplier invoice settlement.5
Capital allocation prioritizes organic warehouse expansion and supply chain modernization, with FY2025 capital expenditures reaching $5,498M (2.27x D&A) to expand the depot network and manufacturing capabilities. Shareholder distributions remain conservative, comprising $2,183M in regular dividends and $903M in share repurchases in FY2025 to offset equity dilution, while maintaining an exceptionally liquid balance sheet.
ROIC stands at 24.18%, reflecting world-class asset turnover, rapid inventory cash conversion, and negative working capital where supplier payables fund warehouse inventories.
Costco's ROIC of 24.18% substantially outpaces its WACC of 8.45% and moderate cost of equity of 8.54%, generating durable economic profit across economic cycles.
| 营业收入 | US$275,235,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$239,886,000,000 |
| 毛利 | US$35,349,000,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$24,966,000,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$10,383,000,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$2,284,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$8,099,000,000 |
| 总资产 | US$77,099,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$14,161,000,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$38,380,000,000 |
| 总负债 | US$47,935,000,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$37,108,000,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$29,164,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$8,099,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$13,335,000,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$2,426,000,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$860,000,000 |
| 其他经营调整项 | US$1,950,000,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$13,335,000,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$23,247,000,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$9,906,000,000 |
| 汇率影响 | US$6,000,000 |
| 投资现金流出 | US$5,311,000,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$3,775,000,000 |
| 股份回购 | US$903,000,000 |
| 已付股息 | US$2,183,000,000 |
| 净债务偿还 | US$296,000,000 |
| 其他融资活动 | US$393,000,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$14,161,000,000 |
| 投资现金流 | -US$5,311,000,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$3,775,000,000 |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2025-10-08 · SEC EDGAR
| 按经营分部划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US$2000.5亿 | 72.7% | 8.6% |
| Other International | US$382.7亿 | 13.9% | 8% |
| Canada | US$369.2亿 | 13.4% | 5.9% |
2026-09-21分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-09-03 | US$1290.3亿 | US$55.4亿 | US$26.8亿 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | US$57.8亿 | US$66.6亿 | 3.2% | — | 5.4% | — |
| 2018-09-02 | US$1415.8亿 | US$60.4亿 | US$31.3亿 | US$57.7亿 | US$28.1亿 | US$29.7亿 | US$14.4亿 | US$5.4亿 | US$3.3亿 | US$6.9亿 | — | -US$29.5亿 | -US$12.8亿 | US$45.5亿 | US$60.6亿 | US$72.6亿 | US$65.8亿 | 3.2% | — | 6.1% | — |
| 2019-09-01 | US$1527亿 | US$64.1亿 | US$36.6亿 | US$63.6亿 | US$33.6亿 | US$30亿 | US$14.9亿 | US$6亿 | US$2.5亿 | US$10.4亿 | — | -US$28.7亿 | -US$11.5亿 | US$60.6亿 | US$83.8亿 | US$94.4亿 | US$68.5亿 | 3.1% | — | 4.9% | — |
| 2020-08-30 | US$1667.6亿 | US$71.8亿 | US$40亿 | US$88.6亿 | US$60.5亿 | US$28.1亿 | US$16.5亿 | US$6.2亿 | US$2亿 | US$14.8亿 | — | -US$38.9亿 | -US$11.5亿 | US$83.8亿 | US$122.8亿 | US$133.1亿 | US$76.6亿 | 3.3% | — | 3.2% | — |
| 2021-08-29 | US$1959.3亿 | US$86.3亿 | US$50.1亿 | US$89.6亿 | US$53.7亿 | US$35.9亿 | US$17.8亿 | US$6.7亿 | US$5亿 | US$57.5亿 | — | -US$35.4亿 | -US$64.9亿 | US$122.8亿 | US$112.6亿 | US$121.8亿 | US$75.3亿 | 3.4% | — | 3.7% | — |
| 2022-08-28 | US$2269.5亿 | US$99亿 | US$58.4亿 | US$73.9亿 | US$35亿 | US$38.9亿 | US$19亿 | US$7.2亿 | US$4.4亿 | US$15亿 | -US$9.3亿 | -US$39.2亿 | -US$42.8亿 | US$112.6亿 | US$102亿 | US$110.5亿 | US$109.1亿 | 3.4% | — | 5.6% | — |
| 2023-09-03 | US$2422.9亿 | US$107.2亿 | US$62.9亿 | US$110.7亿 | US$67.5亿 | US$43.2亿 | US$20.8亿 | US$7.7亿 | US$6.8亿 | US$12.5亿 | -US$3.8亿 | -US$49.7亿 | -US$26.1亿 | US$102亿 | US$137亿 | US$152.3亿 | US$105.4亿 | 3.3% | — | 6.9% | — |
| 2024-09-01 | US$2544.5亿 | US$121.5亿 | US$73.7亿 | US$113.4亿 | US$66.3亿 | US$47.1亿 | US$22.4亿 | US$8.2亿 | US$7亿 | US$90.4亿 | -US$7.1亿 | -US$44.1亿 | -US$107.6亿 | US$137亿 | US$99.1亿 | US$111.4亿 | US$99.5亿 | 3.6% | — | 6.7% | — |
| 2025-08-31 | US$2752.4亿 | US$134亿 | US$81亿 | US$133.4亿 | US$78.4亿 | US$55亿 | US$24.3亿 | US$8.6亿 | US$9亿 | US$21.8亿 | -US$3亿 | -US$53.1亿 | -US$37.8亿 | US$99.1亿 | US$141.6亿 | US$152.8亿 | US$102.2亿 | 3.8% | — | 7.8% | — |
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) trades at 40.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 19.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 27.9x compares with a peer median of 17.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Walmart Inc., Philip Morris International Inc., Mondelez International Inc. and Target Corporation, as of 2026-09-21.
Damodaran industry capex-to-revenue stands at 4.90% and capex-to-depreciation at 1.91x. Costco's FY2025 capex of $5.50B represents 2.00% of revenue and 2.27x depreciation, marking an active transformation build in depot automation and logistics.5
During retail expansion cycles, consumers seek higher product quality and bulk package discounts, driving warehouse foot traffic, higher average spend per visit, and accelerating executive membership adoption.
During macroeconomic downturns or inflationary squeezes, consumers prioritize immediate cash preservation over bulk purchases, while mass merchants wage aggressive grocery price wars and freight inflation pressures retail distribution costs.
Costco holds the preeminent market position in warehouse retail, maintaining unmatched volume throughput per club, high renewal loyalty, and expanding international presence that insulates it from regional competitors.
Under a Sell rating with the stock trading at an extended 103.9% premium to Fair value ($439.14), zero capital should be allocated to new purchases, and existing holdings should be systematically liquidated to eliminate downside exposure.
Risk management requires rigorous adherence to capital preservation. Trading at 40.0x forward earnings leaves no margin of safety against execution stumbles or macro consumer slowdowns. Investors should hedge existing exposure, reallocate proceeds to defensive alternatives trading at or below intrinsic value, and strictly avoid averaging down on minor pullbacks until shares approach fundamental Fair value ($439.14).
Trading at 40.0x forward earnings and a 103.9% premium to Fair value of $439.14, Costco offers no margin of safety for disciplined value capital.3
Even assuming double-digit earnings growth, reverse DCF demonstrates that the market price embeds an aggressive 17.29% 10-year EPS CAGR, creating substantial downside if growth normalizes toward 10.6%.13
A modest dividend yield from a low payout ratio (~27%) does not compensate for acute capital risk if multiples de-rate toward mass merchant averages.5
We recommend a Sell rating for Costco Wholesale Corporation. While the company possesses an exceptional business model and wide moat, the stock trades at $895.31 as of September 18, 2026, which is 103.9% above our Fair value of $439.14. This extended multiple leaves shares highly vulnerable to severe multiple contraction.3
Investors should systematically trim or liquidate long positions and reallocate capital to defensive compounders trading at or below intrinsic value. New purchases should be strictly avoided until shares approach fundamental Fair value.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
In Q3 2026, gross margins contracted 9 bps due to price investments in food staples and transportation headwinds. If competition from mass merchants and commodity inflation compress operating margin by 300 bps below the current 3.77% level to 0.77% within 24 months, operating income falls sharply with a 75.5% fair value contraction under operating_margin_minus_3pp.45
Q3 2026 membership growth decelerated to 4.1% while US operations generate 72.7% of revenue ($200.05B). If domestic comp sales growth drops 5 percentage points below forecast to 2.5% YoY over 5 years within 24 months, fair value contracts by 19.5% under revenue_growth_minus_5pp_5y.46
Current WACC is 8.45% with risk-free rate at 4.94%. A 100 bps increase in discount rate to 9.45% over 12 months reduces DCF and discounted earnings fair value by 17.0% as modeled in discount_rate_plus_1pp.2
当前：>90%
触发警报：Below 88% for two consecutive fiscal quarters
Inability to absorb freight and commodity inflation through volume expansion, eroding operating profitability.
当前：3.77%
触发警报：Below 3.40%
Capital spending escalation during depot expansion failing to generate proportional warehouse sales gains.
当前：2.27x
触发警报：Above 2.60x without opening acceleration
Stalling international warehouse adoption failing to offset mature domestic market saturation.
当前：5.6%-7.0%
触发警报：Below 3.0% YoY for two consecutive fiscal years
| medium |
| 12-24 months |
| Disciplined capital allocation prioritizing high-traffic metropolitan relocations and modular depot automation pacing. |
| International expansion execution friction and regional currency volatility | low | 24-36 months | Carefully staged international rollouts with localized merchandise curation and joint-venture distribution infrastructure. |
Limitation: Terminal value is 63.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Under the moderate discount rate, US$158 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$272 from the long-term value, totaling US$430.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 61.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 64.2% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
In the bull outcome, assigned a 20.0% probability, the shares reach Potential value at $571.07, offering an implied return of -36.2% relative to $895.31. This scenario requires international warehouse rollouts to accelerate with operating margins exceeding domestic units, rapid executive tier penetration in Asian markets, and significant freight productivity from automated depots. This path would be disconfirmed if international opening schedules stall or if gross margins continue to face compression from staple price reductions.
Fluctuations reveal whether management must sacrifice profitability on staple categories to maintain customer price perception against mass merchants.
Elevated infrastructure spending temporarily reduces free cash flow; discipline ensures warehouse expansion delivers expected throughput leverage.
International warehouses generate higher operating margins than domestic units, driving positive margin mix shifts as global presence expands.
New member additions feed comparable store sales growth as shoppers ramp warehouse visits, while executive tier upgrades drive higher average basket sizes.
| FY2035 |
|---|
| Revenue | $291.71B | $308.15B | $324.24B | $340.03B | $355.50B | $370.82B | $385.90B | $400.65B | $415.32B | $430.20B |
| Revenue growth | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| Operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Operating income | $11.05B | $11.72B | $12.38B | $13.03B | $13.67B | $14.29B | $14.88B | $15.45B | $16.02B | $16.60B |
| Tax rate | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% |
| NOPAT | $8.28B | $8.78B | $9.27B | $9.76B | $10.24B | $10.71B | $11.15B | $11.58B | $12.00B | $12.43B |
| Reinvestment | $2.65B | $2.16B | $1.59B | $948.99M | $233.45M | $524.70M | $838.41M | $1.17B | $1.53B | $1.91B |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 32.1% | 24.6% | 17.2% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 15.4% |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.57B | $2.72B | $2.86B | $3.00B | $3.13B | $3.27B | $3.40B | $3.53B | $3.66B | $3.79B |
| Free cash flow to firm | $5.63B | $6.62B | $7.68B | $8.81B | $10.01B | $10.18B | $10.31B | $10.40B | $10.47B | $10.52B |
| United States revenue | $212.01B | $223.97B | $235.66B | $247.14B | $258.38B | $269.51B | $280.47B | $291.20B | $301.86B | $312.67B |
| Other International revenue | $40.55B | $42.83B | $45.07B | $47.26B | $49.41B | $51.54B | $53.64B | $55.69B | $57.73B | $59.80B |
| Canada revenue | $39.15B | $41.35B | $43.51B | $45.63B | $47.71B | $49.76B | $51.79B | $53.77B | $55.74B | $57.73B |
| Terminal growth | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
FY2025 operating cash flow of $13.34B exceeded net income of $8.10B as merchandise inventories turned before supplier payables matured.
Enables multi-billion-dollar depot expansions without debt financing, maintaining net cash balance sheet strength.
Capex expanded 27.2% from $4,323M in FY2023 to $5,498M in FY2025, representing 2.27x depreciation.
Near-term free cash flow conversion is depressed, but investments relieve checkout congestion and support long-term volume compounding.
Operating margin in Canada reached 5.01% ($1,849M operating income on $36,923M revenue) and 4.33% in Other International versus 3.44% in the US.
Geographic expansion provides positive margin mix enrichment as international operations grow relative to domestic clubs.
| 利润率 |
|---|
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | $397.1B | 40.0x | 1.4x | 27.9x | 29.2% | — |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | $846.8B | 33.0x | 1.2x | 20.8x | 22.3% | 3.5% |
| PM | Philip Morris International Inc. | $294.0B | 20.5x | 6.9x | 18.8x | — | 40.0% |
| MDLZ | Mondelez International Inc. | $78.1B | 18.1x | 2.0x | 16.1x | 13.3% | 22.0% |
| TGT | Target Corporation | $71.9B | 16.6x | 0.7x | 10.0x | 26.4% | 6.0% |
| capex_to_depreciation |
| Exceeding 2.60x without an increase in warehouse opening cadence |
| Reduce long-term free cash flow expectations and lower DCF terminal projections. |
| international_revenue_growth | Decelerating below 3.0% YoY | Downgrade terminal growth assumptions to mature domestic replacement rates. |
