CRWD trades against a final fair-value range of $91.54-$123.84, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $91.5, high $124, with mid-point at $108.
Stock analysis
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fair value $108–$124
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$108
Margin of safety
-334.6%
Confidence
74/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$468.07Price
FV $107.69
High $123.84
CRWD trades against a final fair-value range of $91.54-$123.84, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
High switching costs associated with
High switching costs associated with deeply embedded endpoint agents.
Network effects from vast threat
Network effects from vast threat intelligence data lake.
Cycle upside
Vendor consolidation favors integrated platforms like Falcon.
§2 看空情景
At current multiples, the stock offers zero margin of safety. A failure to execute flawlessly on top-line growth or margin expansion will trigger a severe multiple contraction.
该论点可能失败的方式
Margin Compression
· High
Fierce competition from Microsoft and PANW forces pricing compression, capping terminal margins below 20%.
FV impact
-30%
SBC Dilution
· Medium
Failure to rein in excessive stock-based compensation (22.7% of revenue) structurally impairs per-share intrinsic value.
FV impact
-20%
Growth Deceleration
· Low
Market saturation in endpoint security causes revenue growth to decelerate sharply below the 20% required by current multiples.
FV impact
-50%
需关注的早期预警信号
指标
当前
触发阈值
Net new ARR growth decelerates for two consecutive quarters.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Gross retention dips below 97%.
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Deterioration versus the report thesis
SBC remains above 20% of revenue without a clear path to the 7.8% industry median.
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Deterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins fail to scale towards the 30% terminal target.
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Deterioration versus the report thesis
Increased discounting observed in enterprise renewals.
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Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 财务历史
损益表 — 最近六期
项目
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
T−4
CAGR
期间
2022-01-31
2023-01-31
2024-01-31
2025-01-31
2026-01-31
Trend
营业收入
$1.45B
$2.24B
$3.06B
$3.95B
$4.81B
+34.9%
毛利
$1.07B
$1.64B
$2.30B
$2.96B
$3.59B
+35.4%
营业利润
$-142.5M
$-190.1M
$-2.0M
$-120.4M
$-293.3M
—
净利润
$-234.8M
$-183.2M
$89.3M
$-19.3M
$-162.5M
—
每股收益（摊薄）
$-1.03
$-0.79
$0.37
$-0.08
—
—
EBITDA
$-66.0M
$-40.8M
$293.8M
$294.8M
$182.5M
—
研发
$371.3M
$608.4M
$768.5M
$1.08B
$1.38B
+39.0%
销售管理费用
$839.6M
$1.22B
$1.53B
$2.01B
$2.50B
+31.4%
质量评分
Piotroski F 评分
4 / 9
0–9 质量综合
Altman Z 评分
11.4
破产风险 (>3 安全)
Beneish M 评分
-2.95
盈利操纵风险
OCF / 净利润
-9.92
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Fail
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
34.9%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节
Numbers analysis
现金流
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
资本配置
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节
阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Based on our latest independent analysis, CRWD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $468 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $108 (range $91.5–$124), which implies roughly 77.0% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for CRWD is $91.5–$124, with a midpoint of $108. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for CRWD is Sell with a confidence score of 74/100. CRWD is rated Sell at $468.07 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $107.69, implying -76.99% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 74/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. are: Margin Compression; SBC Dilution; Growth Deceleration. The single biggest risk is Margin Compression: Fierce competition from Microsoft and PANW forces pricing compression, capping terminal margins below 20%.
Our current rating for CRWD is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 74/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($91.5–$124) versus the current price of $468.
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. is classified as a pre-profit stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for CRWD.
