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CSX trades against a final fair-value range of $21.30-$52.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $21.3, high $52.5, with mid-point at $34.5.
Stock analysis

CSX fair value $21–$53

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-20下次更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Turnaround
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股价
$46.08
▼ -11.57 (-25.11%)
公允价值
$35
$21–$53
评级
卖出
confidence 82/100
上行空间
-25.1%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$29.33
MoS level · 15%
市值
$85.6B
P/E fwd 21.4
英文原文ZH
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§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $35 with high case $53.
  • Implied downside of 25.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Turnaround.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$35
Margin of safety
-33.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$46.08Price
Low $21.30
Mid $34.51
High $52.53

CSX trades against a final fair-value range of $21.30-$52.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • 20,000-mile Eastern US rail network
    20,000-mile Eastern US rail network rights-of-way
  • Network effects from 30+ intermodal
    Network effects from 30+ intermodal terminal connections
  • Cycle upside
    Sustained industrial production growth >3% and recovering intermodal demand.

§2 看空情景

A combined 10% volume contraction in industrial carloads paired with a 25% surge in diesel fuel prices would expand the operating ratio to ~70%. Under this scenario, mandatory capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). of $2.9B would consume nearly 100% of operating cash flowOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement., threatening capital returns and debt covenants.

该论点可能失败的方式

Accelerated Coal Decarbonization

30%· Medium

A rapid utility pivot away from coal removes 15%+ of high-margin carload volume, causing structural deleveraging of fixed network costs and permanent margin compression.

FV impact
-35%
Trigger
12-36 months

Capex Trap / Normalization Failure

40%· High

Capital intensity remains at ~20% of revenue through FY2027 as turnaround efforts fail to yield operational gains, leaving free cash flow suppressed indefinitely.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
18-24 months

Regulatory Pricing Intervention

20%· Medium

The Surface Transportation Board mandates restrictive rate caps for captive shippers to fight industrial inflation, stripping the company of its core pricing power.

FV impact
-40%
Trigger
24-48 months
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Operating Ratio (OR) exceeding 65% for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex-to-Revenue ratio remaining above 18% into FY2027.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net Debt / EBITDA ratio climbing toward 4.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Intermodal carload growth trailing trucking sector volumes by >300bps.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio dropping below 0.4x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期间2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
营业收入$14.85B$14.66B$14.54B$14.09B-1.7%
毛利$5.72B$5.50B$5.35B$4.69B-6.4%
营业利润$5.80B$5.53B$5.40B$4.72B-6.6%
净利润$4.11B$3.67B$3.47B$2.89B-11.1%
每股收益（摊薄）$1.95$1.85$1.79$1.54-7.6%
EBITDA$7.59B$7.25B$7.05B$6.29B-6.1%
研发—————
销售管理费用$-79.0M$-29.0M$-50.0M$-33.0M—

质量评分

OCF / 净利润
1.6×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Fail
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
11.2%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

现金流

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVERSE DCF FAQ

CSX reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for CSX (CSX) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

CSX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CSX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $46.1 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $34.5 (range $21.3–$52.5), which implies roughly 25.1% downside to the midpoint.

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