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Recurring fees could sustain sales and margins while lower investment spending releases more cash for debt reduction and shareholder distributions.
Subscription and affiliate revenue growth falls below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Sell. At the report-date price, Disney stands above Fair value, and the limited gap to Potential value does not offset the operating risks.
The report-date price was USD 105.31 on 2026-09-04. Fair value is USD 72.19, while Potential value is USD 108.07.3
The main risk is persistent contraction in subscription and affiliate revenue. That would reduce sales, margin, earnings, and cash together.
The clearest upside path is durable recurring-fee growth combined with lower capital intensity. That would release more cash for debt reduction and shareholder distributions.45
Demand remains supportive if recurring fees hold, annual revenue estimates are met, and investment spending converts into earnings rather than permanent maintenance needs.1
Sell because the report-date price exceeds Fair value while recurring-fee durability and investment returns remain unresolved.
Sell because the report-date price exceeds Fair value while recurring-fee durability and investment returns remain unresolved.
ESPN offers a U.S. subscription-based DTC service with two plans: ESPN Select and ESPN Unlimited, which started in August 2025. ESPN Select, previously the ESPN+ service through August 2025, offers thousands of live sporting events, on-demand sports content and other original content. In addition, third-party suppliers provide products and services essential to the operation of a number of its businesses. WALT DISNEY CO/ maintains information necessary to conduct its businesses, including confidential and proprietary information as well as personal information regarding its customers and employees, in digital form. WALT DISNEY CO/ also uses computer and cloud-based systems to deliver its products and services and operate its businesses.
Such data and systems are subject to the risk of compromise and other cyberattacks, including unauthorized access, modification, exfiltration, destruction or denial of access, which also can result in disruptions in service. The following table presents revenues from its operating segments: The following table presents income from its operating segments and other components of income before income taxes:
The downside becomes operationally serious when weaker margins or earnings combine with higher required returns and persistent capital intensity.
This path gains support if regional weakness joins recurring-fee erosion and reduces consolidated fixed-cost absorption. It fades if FY2027 anchors hold and capital intensity improves.
A sustained normalized operating margin below 15.5% would show that competition and depreciation are overpowering recurring revenue.
A cost of equity above 10.8215% would reduce what investors pay for future earnings while debt remains material.
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
Weaker pricing and fixed-cost absorption would cut operating profit, earnings, and cash, undermining the recovered-margin premise despite recurring revenue scale.
当前：The forecast remains near 18.5% through FY2030.
触发警报：Below 15.5% within 36 months.
The evidence shows that subscription and affiliate fees are large, but it does not establish switching costs, network effects, protected assets, cost advantage, or efficient scale.
Capex rose from FY2023 through FY2025. The key economic test is whether that spending produces future earnings and cash; the spending figures alone do not establish that result.4
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($72.19). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $12.0B after modeled reinvestment of $2.0B, with terminal value at 72.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Confirmation requires FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS to meet the cited annual estimates. Later growth must then slow without a sharp margin decline.1
A beat matters only if recurring-fee growth and margins improve while investment intensity eases.
Results within the annual revenue and adjusted EPS estimate ranges would leave the outlook broadly unchanged, especially because estimates were flat around the latest earnings event.
A miss would show weaker FY2027 earnings than analysts expect and reduce support for later sales, profit, and cash assumptions.
Debt of $46.04 billion on 2026-09-08 limits balance-sheet flexibility if earnings or cash weaken.3
The central cash question is whether FY2025 investment spending produces lasting earnings or becomes recurring maintenance. Persistent spending would reduce cash available after operations.4
Diluted shares declined from 1.831 billion in FY2024 to 1.811 billion in FY2025, but total debt remained $46.04 billion on 2026-09-08.
Reported profit recovery and the capex step-up point in opposite directions, so an investment-return trend is not inferred.
No spread conclusion is drawn from these observations; enterprise cash flows use an 8.6228% report-date capital cost.
FY2025 net income was $12.40 billion in the filing retrieved on 2026-09-08.
Higher earnings support distributions and investment only if cash needs do not rise at the same pace.
Capex rose from $4.97 billion in FY2023 to $8.02 billion in FY2025.
Future cash available to shareholders depends heavily on project returns and spending normalization.
| 营业收入 | US$94,425,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$58,766,000,000 |
| 毛利 | US$35,659,000,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$18,108,000,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$17,551,000,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$5,147,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$12,404,000,000 |
| 总资产 | US$197,514,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$5,695,000,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$24,267,000,000 |
| 总负债 | US$82,902,000,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$34,162,000,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$114,612,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$12,404,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$19,093,000,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$5,326,000,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$1,363,000,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$18,101,000,000 |
| 经营现金流出 | US$992,000,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$24,208,000,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$6,102,000,000 |
| 汇率影响 | US$5,000,000 |
| 投资现金流出 | US$8,043,000,000 |
| 资本支出 | US$8,024,000,000 |
| 其他投资活动 | US$19,000,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$10,366,000,000 |
| 股份回购 | US$3,500,000,000 |
| 已付股息 | US$1,803,000,000 |
| 净债务偿还 | US$3,621,000,000 |
| 其他融资活动 | US$1,442,000,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$5,799,000,000 |
| 投资现金流 | -US$8,043,000,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$10,366,000,000 |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2025-11-13 · SEC EDGAR
| 按业务类别划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription And Affiliate Fees | US$377.8亿 | 40% | 3.4% |
| Admission | US$117.1亿 | 12.4% | 4.8% |
| Advertising | US$111.2亿 | 11.8% | -6.5% |
| Product | US$98.4亿 | 10.4% | 3.3% |
| Resortandvacations | US$92.1亿 | 9.8% | 10% |
| Other Revenue | US$47.2亿 | 5% | -0.8% |
| License | US$38.8亿 | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| TVVODAnd Home Entertainment Distribution | US$37.7亿 | 4% | 12.5% |
| Theatricaldistributionlicensing | US$25.9亿 | 2.7% | 14.4% |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2025-11-13 · SEC EDGAR
| 按地区划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | US$764.3亿 | 80.9% | 5.9% |
| Europe | US$110.9亿 | 11.7% | 7.9% |
| Asia Pacific | US$69.1亿 | 7.3% | -22.6% |
2026-09-08分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-28 | US$696.1亿 | US$190.7亿 | US$110.5亿 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | US$54.2亿 | US$469.9亿 | 21.3% | — | 4.6% | — |
| 2019-09-30 | — | — | — | US$66.1亿 | US$17.3亿 | US$48.8亿 | US$41.7亿 | US$7.1亿 | US$0 | US$29亿 | — | -US$41.2亿 | -US$10.9亿 | US$41.6亿 | US$54.6亿 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020-09-30 | — | — | — | US$76.2亿 | US$36亿 | US$40.2亿 | US$53.5亿 | US$5.3亿 | US$0 | US$15.9亿 | — | -US$36.4亿 | US$84.8亿 | US$54.6亿 | US$179.5亿 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020-10-03 | US$653.9亿 | US$50.9亿 | -US$28.6亿 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | US$218.2亿 | US$586.3亿 | 12.4% | — | 4.0% | — |
| 2021-09-30 | — | — | — | US$55.7亿 | US$19.9亿 | US$35.8亿 | US$51.1亿 | US$6亿 | — | US$0 | — | -US$31.6亿 | -US$43.9亿 | US$179.5亿 | US$160亿 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021-10-02 | US$674.2亿 | US$90.8亿 | US$20亿 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | US$159.6亿 | US$544.1亿 | 11.5% | — | 5.0% | — |
| 2022-10-01 | US$827.2亿 | US$120亿 | US$31.5亿 | US$60.1亿 | US$10.7亿 | US$49.4亿 | US$51.6亿 | US$9.8亿 | US$0 | US$0 | -US$40.2亿 | -US$50.1亿 | -US$47.4亿 | US$160亿 | US$116.6亿 | US$116.2亿 | US$483.7亿 | 14.7% | — | 6.9% | — |
| 2023-09-30 | US$889亿 | US$121.1亿 | US$23.5亿 | US$98.7亿 | US$49亿 | US$49.7亿 | US$53.7亿 | US$11.4亿 | US$0 | US$0 | -US$17.8亿 | -US$46.4亿 | -US$27.2亿 | US$116.6亿 | US$142.4亿 | US$141.8亿 | US$464.3亿 | 14.5% | — | 7.3% | — |
| 2024-09-28 | US$913.6亿 | US$146.3亿 | US$49.7亿 | US$139.7亿 | US$85.6亿 | US$54.1亿 | US$49.9亿 | US$13.7亿 | US$29.9亿 | US$13.7亿 | -US$14亿 | -US$68.8亿 | -US$152.9亿 | US$142.4亿 | US$61亿 | US$60亿 | US$458.2亿 | 17.1% | — | 7.1% | — |
| 2025-09-27 | US$944.3亿 | US$191.4亿 | US$124亿 | US$181亿 | US$100.8亿 | US$80.2亿 | US$53.3亿 | US$13.6亿 | US$35亿 | US$18亿 | -US$36.2亿 | -US$80.4亿 | -US$103.7亿 | US$61亿 | US$58亿 | US$57亿 | US$420.3亿 | 18.6% | — | 8.3% | — |
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) trades at 14.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 11.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 10.9x compares with a peer median of 8.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: AT&T Inc., T-Mobile US Inc., Verizon Communications Inc. and Netflix Inc., as of 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-08.
Demand remains supportive if recurring fees hold, annual revenue estimates are met, and investment spending converts into earnings rather than permanent maintenance needs.
The cycle weakens if subscription economics deteriorate while high investment spending persists. That combination would pressure revenue, margins, and cash together.
The Americas dominates disclosed revenue, while Europe and Asia Pacific remain meaningful. Regional amounts alone do not establish demand, currency, or margin transmission.5
Exit existing exposure; make no new allocation.. The report-date price exceeds Fair value, and the operating case depends on post-FY2027 assumptions and capital-spending normalization.4
Exit existing exposure while the report-date price remains above Fair value.
The report-date price stands above Fair value, while later forecast years depend on extrapolated growth and margins.
Reduce exposure because recurring-fee durability and capex normalization remain unresolved operating conditions.45
The distribution case does not offset the valuation gap or the risk that investment spending becomes recurring maintenance.4
Sell because the report-date price exceeds Fair value and the outlook requires durable recurring fees, stable margins, and lower capital intensity.
Potential value remains secondary because reaching it requires stronger operating persistence than the explicit annual estimate period establishes.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Adjusted diluted EPS below $7.09 would invalidate the second annual earnings anchor before the extrapolated forecast years begin.
A higher required return would make investors pay less for future earnings, while material debt limits balance-sheet flexibility during operating weakness.
当前：Moderate and strict rates were 9.7866% and 10.8215% on 2026-09-08.
触发警报：Above 10.8215% within 12 months.
A result below the estimate range would show weaker per-share earnings than analysts expect for FY2027, reducing support for the later sales, profit, and cash outlook.
当前：The mean estimate was $7.47, with a $7.09 low, on 2026-09-08.
触发警报：Below $7.09 for FY2027.
Persistent contraction would reduce consolidated sales and fixed-cost absorption, pressuring operating margin, earnings, free cash flow, and distributions together.
当前：FY2025 subscription and affiliate revenue was $37.78 billion.
触发警报：Below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Sustained capital intensity would absorb operating cash, raise future depreciation, and reduce funds available for debt reduction, dividends, and buybacks.
当前：FY2025 capex reached $8.02 billion.
触发警报：Capex-to-depreciation above 1.5 through FY2028.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 72.2% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 71.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
A decline would show that pricing and leverage are failing to offset competition.
| $109.81B |
| $113.10B |
| $115.93B |
| Revenue growth | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 18.6% | 18.6% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% |
| Operating income | $18.85B | $19.68B | $20.35B | $20.94B | $21.45B |
| Tax rate | 25.7% | 25.7% | 25.7% | 25.7% | 25.7% |
| NOPAT | $14.00B | $14.62B | $15.12B | $15.55B | $15.93B |
| Reinvestment | $2.04B | $1.23B | $337.23M | $2.05B | $3.84B |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 14.5% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 13.2% | 24.1% |
| Depreciation and amortization | $5.72B | $5.98B | $6.19B | $6.38B | $6.54B |
| Free cash flow to firm | $11.96B | $13.39B | $14.78B | $13.51B | $12.09B |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Diluted shares | 1.80B | 1.79B | 1.78B | 1.77B | 1.76B |
| EPS | $7.26 | $7.47 | $7.65 | $7.79 | $7.88 |
| Net margin | 12.9% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 12.0% |
| Implied net income | $13.07B | $13.40B | $13.64B | $13.81B | $13.91B |
| 利润率 |
|---|
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | $181.8B | 14.4x | 1.8x | 10.9x | 8.0% | — |
| T | AT&T Inc. | 10.0x | 1.4x | 7.6x | 18.3% | 24.8% | |
| TMUS | T-Mobile US Inc. | 12.6x | 2.1x | 9.1x | 18.0% | 25.2% | |
| VZ | Verizon Communications Inc. | 9.5x | 1.5x | 7.9x | 15.8% | 23.0% | |
| NFLX | Netflix Inc. | 20.5x | 6.7x | 22.6x | 49.5% | 33.4% |
