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EA trades against a final fair-value range of $85.13-$188.44, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $85.1, high $188, with mid-point at $136.
Stock analysis

EA fair value $85–$188

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-20下次更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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股价
$201.70
▼ -65.26 (-32.35%)
公允价值
$136
$85–$188
评级
卖出
confidence 82/100
上行空间
-32.4%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$115.97
MoS level · 15%
市值
$50.6B
P/E fwd 20.7
英文原文ZH
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§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $136 with high case $188.
  • Implied downside of 32.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$136
Margin of safety
-47.8%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$201.70Price
Low $85.13
Mid $136.44
High $188.44

EA trades against a final fair-value range of $85.13-$188.44, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Network Effects
    Network Effects
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating digital transition, new console generation penetration, and monetization of live services.

§2 看空情景

A combined scenario where EA loses its exclusive NFL license and sweeping global regulations ban Ultimate Team mechanics. This would structurally impair the 1.85x OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement.-to-Net-Income conversion and compress operating margins well below 20%, driving the valuation toward the $85 downside case.

该论点可能失败的方式

Regulatory Ban on Ultimate Team

· Medium

Global regulatory actions classify Ultimate Team 'loot boxes' as gambling, heavily restricting or banning the mechanic in key markets.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
1-3 Years

Loss of NFL Exclusive License

· Low

The NFL decides to move away from an exclusive licensing agreement, allowing competitors to release simulation football titles.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
3-5 Years

Franchise Fatigue and Player Attrition

· Medium

Core franchises experience severe player attrition due to a lack of innovation and aggressive monetization, leading to a permanent structural decline in live-service revenues.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-4 Years
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Consecutive quarters of declining Ultimate Team net bookings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins falling below 22% for two consecutive fiscal quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
OCF to Net Income ratio dropping below 1.3x on a TTM basis.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory investigations opened in major gaming markets (EU, US).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant player base decline in EA FC or Madden.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期间2022-03-312023-03-312024-03-312025-03-312026-03-31Trend
营业收入$6.99B$7.43B$7.56B$7.46B—+1.6%
毛利$5.13B$5.63B$5.85B$5.92B—+3.6%
营业利润$1.13B$1.44B$1.58B$1.58B—+8.7%
净利润$789.0M$802.0M$1.27B$1.12B—+9.2%
每股收益（摊薄）$2.76$2.88$4.68$4.25$3.51+6.2%
EBITDA$1.63B$1.92B$2.05B$2.02B—+5.6%
研发$2.19B$2.33B$2.42B$2.57B—+4.1%
销售管理费用$1.63B$1.71B$1.71B$1.71B—+1.1%

质量评分

OCF / 净利润
1.86×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Fail
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
15.8%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

现金流

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVERSE DCF FAQ

EA reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for EA (EA) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

EA — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, EA looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $202 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $136 (range $85.1–$188), which implies roughly 32.4% downside to the midpoint.

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