Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $79.8, high $166, with mid-point at $118.
Stock analysis

ESTC fair value $80–$166

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-10下次更新: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
View archive
股价
$52.25
▲ +65.96 (+126.24%)
公允价值
$118
$80–$166
评级
强力买入
confidence 73/100
上行空间
+126.2%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$100.48
MoS level · 15%
市值
$5.4B
P/E fwd 18.4
英文原文ZH
翻译期间显示英文原文
此报告尚未翻译。翻译队列赶上后请在几分钟内刷新。

§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $118 with high case $166.
  • Implied upside of 126.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 73/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$118
Margin of safety
+55.8%
Confidence
73/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$52.25Price
Low $79.75
Mid $118.21
High $165.72

ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in core
    High switching costs in core enterprise search and observability.
  • Growing footprint in generative AI
    Growing footprint in generative AI vector search.
  • Cycle upside
    Generative AI drives massive vector database adoption. Cloud migration and IT consolidation favor platforms offering unified observability and security.

§2 看空情景

A severe IT spending contraction paired with aggressive discounting by native cloud providers tests Elastic's pricing power. If top-line growth decelerates below 10% before operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. kicks in, the current 8x EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiple will violently compress.

该论点可能失败的方式

Cloud Provider Commoditization

· Low

Native cloud providers bundle vector search and observability natively at zero marginal cost, destroying top-line growth.

FV impact
Severe

Datadog Consolidation

· Medium

Enterprise IT consolidates entirely on Datadog or Splunk for observability, crowding out Elastic's premium offerings.

FV impact
Moderate

Perpetual Unprofitability

· High

SBC and R&D spend required to compete remain elevated indefinitely, preventing transition to structural profitability.

FV impact
High
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Revenue growth decelerating below 15% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compressing below 70%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue expanding.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major enterprise logo churn to Datadog or native cloud tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Vector search adoption stalling in favor of standalone DBs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期间2022-04-302023-04-302024-04-302025-04-30Trend
营业收入$862.4M$1.07B$1.27B$1.48B+19.8%
毛利$630.2M$772.4M$937.2M$1.10B+20.5%
营业利润$-173.7M$-187.9M$-125.0M$-54.7M—
净利润$-203.8M$-236.2M$61.7M$-108.1M—
每股收益（摊薄）$-2.20$-2.47$0.59$-1.04—
EBITDA$-157.3M$-171.5M$-78.6M$6.1M—
研发$273.8M$313.5M$342.0M$365.8M+10.1%
销售管理费用$530.1M$646.8M$720.3M$792.4M+14.3%

质量评分

Piotroski F 评分
6 / 9
0–9 质量综合
Altman Z 评分
2.35
破产风险 (>3 安全)
Beneish M 评分
-3.02
盈利操纵风险
OCF / 净利润
-2.46
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Fail
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
-0.0%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

现金流

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

涵盖每个股票的完整报告
24 个月的评级存档
关注列表简报 + 评级变更提醒
以任意语言导出 PDF + DOCX
开始免费试用
可随时取消。
SCENARIOS FAQ

ESTC scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for ESTC (ESTC) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

ESTC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ESTC looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $52.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $118 (range $79.8–$166), which implies roughly 126.2% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of ESTC also follow

Same archetype: pre-profit