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The strongest upside path is FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS meeting analyst consensus estimates, which would support the near-term recovery case.
Annual HIV product-sales growth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Hold. The $146.64 report-date price was above Fair value of $139.59. HIV supplied $20.75 billion of FY2025 consolidated revenue of $29.44 billion, making sustained contraction the main risk. FY2027 revenue estimates and FY2025 free cash flow provide the clearest upside support.13456
The report used the September 8, 2026 price of $146.64, retrieved September 9. Fair value is $139.59, while is $273.40 and requires stronger outcomes.
The main risk is sustained HIV contraction. Because HIV supplied $20.75 billion of FY2025 sales, consecutive annual declines would weaken consolidated revenue, margins, earnings, and cash.6
The clearest upside path requires FY2027 revenue to remain within the supplied estimate range, free cash flow to remain strong, and non-HIV sales to increase from the smaller cell-therapy base.146
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base, supporting consolidated revenue without relying on physical-capacity expansion.6
Hold because the report-date price exceeded Fair value while HIV concentration limits the duration of the supported recovery.3
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base. FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, but that observation does not establish future capacity needs.56
Hold because the report-date price exceeded Fair value while HIV concentration limits the duration of the supported recovery.3
GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. sells and distribute most of its products in the U.S. exclusively through the wholesale channel. Historically, approximately 90% of its gross product sales in the U.S. have been to three large wholesalers—Cardinal Health, Inc., Cencora, Inc. and McKesson Corporation—and their specialty distributor affiliates.
Prices for its products are based on local market economics and competition and sometimes differ from country to country. Its sales in countries with relatively higher prices may be reduced if products can be imported and resold into those countries from lower price markets.
The harsh coherent path combines two years of HIV contraction, a normalized consolidated operating margin below 32%, and higher required returns. This margin means recurring companywide operating profit, excluding nonrecurring items, as a share of revenue. Sales, profit, cash, and what investors pay for future earnings would fall together.
HIV contraction would reduce the largest revenue stream. If normalized consolidated operating margin also fell, recurring companywide operating profit would weaken as a share of revenue. Cash generation would decline, while higher required returns would reduce the value of future cash flows.
Annual HIV sales growth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years would shrink the largest revenue stream, weakening margins, earnings, and distributable cash.
A recurring operating margin below 32% within 24 months would show that adjusted FY2027 earnings overstate sustainable profitability and cash generation.
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
HIV is the largest product group, so sustained contraction would reduce consolidated sales before weakening operating leverage, earnings, and cash available for distributions.
当前：FY2025 HIV sales were $20.75 billion.
触发警报：Growth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Strong cash generation and HIV scale support present earnings, but neither proves switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, or efficient scale. Structural protection beyond the FY2027 estimate period is not established.
FY2025 free cash flow supports economic value, but future excess returns remain conditional on product durability and disciplined reinvestment.4
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($139.59). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $10.4B after modeled capex of $563.0M, with terminal value at 65.7% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
FY2027 analyst consensus estimates support higher revenue and adjusted earnings. Growth then slows because HIV concentration limits the evidence for a longer expansion.1
Higher revenue and adjusted earnings would strengthen the FY2027 outlook, but one strong result would not establish lasting growth.
Results within the FY2027 analyst consensus ranges would support near-term sales and earnings without proving that growth continues beyond FY2027.
As a scenario inference, a broad miss would weaken the revenue base and leave less operating profit and cash if margins also deteriorate.
FY2025 operating cash exceeded net income, but adjusted FY2027 EPS must remain separate from recurring reported economics.5
The FY2025 filing observations were published 2026-02-24 and retrieved 2026-09-09. Cash flow exceeded reported net income, supporting the quality of that year's earnings.5
Total debt was $26.25 billion on 2026-09-09, while cash was $7.56 billion at FY2025. Because the dates differ, these figures do not provide a matching-date net debt measure.
FY2025 profitability is evident, but the cited observations do not establish a comparable multi-year return-on-invested-capital path.
WACC was 6.9139% on 2026-09-09, but no supported ROIC comparison is presented.
FY2025 operating cash flow was $10.02 billion and free cash flow was $9.46 billion.
Cash can support distributions and debt reduction while operating performance remains stable.
FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, compared with $10.02 billion of operating cash flow.
Most operating cash remained after capital spending in FY2025.
| 营业收入 | US$29,443,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$6,235,000,000 |
| 毛利 | US$23,208,000,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$13,186,000,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$10,022,000,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$1,512,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$8,510,000,000 |
| 总资产 | US$59,023,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$7,564,000,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$18,342,000,000 |
| 总负债 | US$36,405,000,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$11,813,000,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$22,618,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$8,510,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$12,164,000,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$2,760,000,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$894,000,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$10,019,000,000 |
| 经营现金流出 | US$2,145,000,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$20,102,000,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$9,991,000,000 |
| 汇率影响 | US$92,000,000 |
| 投资现金流出 | US$4,793,000,000 |
| 资本支出 | US$563,000,000 |
| 其他投资活动 | US$4,230,000,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$7,745,000,000 |
| 股份回购 | US$1,922,000,000 |
| 已付股息 | US$4,003,000,000 |
| 净债务偿还 | US$1,788,000,000 |
| 其他融资活动 | US$32,000,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$7,564,000,000 |
| 投资现金流 | -US$4,793,000,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$7,745,000,000 |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
| 按业务类别划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIVProduct Sales | US$207.5亿 | 70.5% | 5.8% |
| Cell Therapy Products Total Cell Therapy Product Sales | US$18.4亿 | 6.2% | — |
| HIVProducts Genvoya | US$15亿 | 5.1% | — |
| Liver Disease Products Vemlidy | US$10.7亿 | 3.6% | 11.6% |
| Veklury | US$9.1亿 | 3.1% | — |
| Other Products Total Other Product Sales | US$8亿 | 2.7% | -10.1% |
| Royalty Contract And Other | US$5.3亿 | 1.8% | 266% |
| Other Products Am Bisome | US$5.1亿 | 1.7% | -4.5% |
| HIVProducts Other HIV | US$5亿 | 1.7% | 15.2% |
| HIVProducts Symtuza Revenue Share | US$5亿 | 1.7% | -16.4% |
| Cell Therapy Products Tecartus | US$3.4亿 | 1.2% | -14.6% |
| Other Products Other | US$2.9亿 | 1% | -18.5% |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
| 按地区划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US$208.8亿 | 70.9% | 1.4% |
| Europe | US$50.6亿 | 17.2% | 9.3% |
| Rest Of World | US$35亿 | 11.9% | -0.7% |
2026-09-09分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | US$303.9亿 | US$192.2亿 | US$135亿 | US$170.5亿 | US$163亿 | US$7.5亿 | US$11.6亿 | US$3.8亿 | US$110亿 | US$24.6亿 | — | -US$119.9亿 | -US$97.3亿 | — | US$82.3亿 | US$119亿 | US$277.5亿 | 58.0% | — | 6.0% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | US$261.1亿 | US$159.3亿 | US$46.3亿 | US$119亿 | US$113.1亿 | US$5.9亿 | US$12.9亿 | US$6.4亿 | US$9.5亿 | US$27.3亿 | — | -US$160.7亿 | US$33.9亿 | US$82.3亿 | US$75.9亿 | US$255.1亿 | US$335.4亿 | 54.1% | — | 5.1% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | US$221.3亿 | US$103.1亿 | US$54.6亿 | US$84亿 | US$74.8亿 | US$9.2亿 | US$14.3亿 | US$8.5亿 | US$29亿 | US$29.7亿 | — | US$143.6亿 | -US$123.2亿 | US$75.9亿 | US$179.4亿 | US$300.9亿 | US$273.2亿 | 37.1% | — | 5.5% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | US$224.5亿 | US$75.6亿 | US$53.9亿 | US$91.4亿 | US$83.2亿 | US$8.3亿 | US$14亿 | US$6.4亿 | US$17.5亿 | US$32.2亿 | — | -US$78.2亿 | -US$76.3亿 | US$179.4亿 | US$116.3亿 | US$243.5亿 | US$245.9亿 | 19.1% | — | 5.2% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | US$246.9亿 | US$41.3亿 | US$1.2亿 | US$81.7亿 | US$75.2亿 | US$6.5亿 | US$14.8亿 | US$6.4亿 | US$15.8亿 | US$34.5亿 | — | -US$146.2亿 | US$7.7亿 | US$116.3亿 | US$60亿 | US$74.1亿 | US$314亿 | 16.5% | — | 2.2% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | US$273.1亿 | US$113.3亿 | US$62.3亿 | US$113.8亿 | US$108.1亿 | US$5.8亿 | US$20.5亿 | US$6.4亿 | US$5.5亿 | US$36.1亿 | — | -US$31.3亿 | -US$88.8亿 | US$60亿 | US$53.4亿 | US$65.2亿 | US$267亿 | 36.3% | — | 2.8% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | US$272.8亿 | US$88.5亿 | US$45.9亿 | US$90.7亿 | US$83.4亿 | US$7.3亿 | US$21亿 | US$6.4亿 | US$14亿 | US$37.1亿 | -US$15亿 | -US$24.7亿 | -US$64.7亿 | US$53.4亿 | US$54.1亿 | US$63.9亿 | US$252.3亿 | 26.9% | — | 5.3% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | US$271.2亿 | US$76.1亿 | US$56.7亿 | US$80.1亿 | US$74.2亿 | US$5.9亿 | US$26.9亿 | US$7.7亿 | US$10亿 | US$38.1亿 | -US$2.7亿 | -US$22.7亿 | -US$51.3亿 | US$54.1亿 | US$60.9亿 | US$72.6亿 | US$249.9亿 | 28.0% | — | 5.1% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | US$287.5亿 | US$44.3亿 | US$4.8亿 | US$108.3亿 | US$103.1亿 | US$5.2亿 | US$27.7亿 | US$8.4亿 | US$11.5亿 | US$39.2亿 | US$14.9亿 | -US$34.5亿 | -US$34.3亿 | US$60.9亿 | US$99.9亿 | US$115.7亿 | US$267.1亿 | 5.8% | — | 6.1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | US$294.4亿 | US$135.8亿 | US$85.1亿 | US$100.2亿 | US$94.6亿 | US$5.6亿 | US$27.6亿 | US$8.9亿 | US$19.2亿 | US$40亿 | -US$17.9亿 | -US$47.9亿 | -US$77.5亿 | US$99.9亿 | US$75.6亿 | US$96.1亿 | US$249.4亿 | 34.0% | — | 6.0% | — |
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) trades at 15.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 13.9x compares with a peer median of 11.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Pfizer Inc., AbbVie Inc., Merck & Co. Inc. and Sanofi, as of 2026-07-26 to 2026-09-09.
The pharmaceutical benchmark dated 2026-09-01 shows capital spending at 1.1% of revenue and 0.8 times depreciation, indicating restrained industry investment.
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base. FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, but that observation does not establish future capacity needs.
Weak HIV demand would transmit quickly because HIV remains the dominant product group. Geographic diversification may soften a local shock, but US revenue remains the largest disclosed category.
Gilead enters this demand-led cycle with substantial cash generation, but product concentration limits protection against an HIV-specific slowdown.46
No allocation increase. The report-date price exceeds Fair value. HIV was the dominant FY2025 product group, so concentration and wide valuation outcomes limit support for a larger position.356
Do not use the upper cash-based valuation outcomes as stand-alone sizing support because their reinvestment assumptions overlap.
Cash generation supports ownership, but the report-date price exceeds Fair value and HIV concentration limits growth duration.4
Wait for the FY2027 recovery and recurring margin evidence rather than relying on Potential value.1
FY2025 free cash flow supports distributions, although debt and concentration reduce flexibility during a setback.34
Hold because the report-date price was above Fair value. FY2027 revenue estimates support a near-term recovery, but HIV concentration limits its likely duration.1356
The case can improve if FY2027 analyst consensus revenue and adjusted earnings are met, recurring operating margin stays at or above 32%, and cell therapy contributes more.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A moderate cost of equity above 9.2834% within 12 months would reduce the present value of distant cash flows and weaken long-duration valuation support.
Slower FY2027 growth would bring mature growth forward, reducing the sales base that supports future earnings and cash flow.
当前：Analyst consensus estimates FY2027 revenue at $32.68 billion as of and retrieved 2026-09-09.
触发警报：FY2027 growth below 2.5%.
A breach would show that each dollar of sales produces less recurring operating profit. That would weaken cash generation and indicate that provider-adjusted FY2027 earnings overstate sustainable companywide economics.
当前：FY2025 GAAP operating income was $10.02 billion on $29.44 billion of revenue.
触发警报：Normalized consolidated operating margin below 32% within 24 months. This means recurring companywide operating profit, excluding nonrecurring items, as a share of revenue.
Higher required returns would lower what investors pay for future cash flows, with the greatest pressure on valuations that depend more heavily on distant years.
当前：Moderate cost of equity was 7.2834% on 2026-09-09.
触发警报：Above 9.2834% within 12 months.
A lower FY2027 estimate would reduce expected earnings per share and weaken the case that profitability can recover even if HIV sales remain stable.
当前：FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS is estimated at $9.89 as of and retrieved 2026-09-09.
触发警报：Estimate below the supplied $9.19 low.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 65.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 80.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Improvement beyond FY2027 requires a larger non-HIV contribution and strong free cash flow. These are scenario conditions, while the cited evidence records FY2025 levels. Lower cell-therapy sales or weaker free cash flow would disconfirm this path.46
A lower annual estimate would shorten the recovery period and reduce future cash expectations.1
Lower recurring profitability would show that adjusted earnings overstate sustainable economics.5
| $33.50B |
| $34.33B |
| $35.19B |
| Operating income | $9.82B | $10.46B | $10.72B | $10.99B | $11.26B |
| NOPAT | $8.05B | $8.57B | $8.79B | $9.00B | $9.23B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $8.05B | $8.57B | $8.79B | $9.00B | $9.23B |
| Revenue growth | 4.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Tax rate | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 利润率 |
|---|
| GILD | Gilead Sciences Inc. | $187.2B | 15.4x | 6.0x | 13.9x | -20.7% | — |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 9.6x | 2.5x | 8.3x | 5.0% | 27.9% | |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | 15.3x | 6.8x | 16.8x | 62.2% | 40.0% | |
| MRK | Merck & Co. Inc. | 15.6x | 5.5x | 14.3x | 7.0% | -0.2% | |
| SNY | Sanofi | 8.4x | 2.2x | 9.3x | 6.6% | 20.0% |
| Below 32% |
| Review reducing exposure because each dollar of sales would produce less operating profit and cash.5 |
| Free cash flow | A sustained decline that no longer supports distributions and debt reduction | Keep the position from increasing and reassess capital-return capacity.4 |
