Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)

NYSE: HLT · USD

$349

+4.34 (+1.3%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-27

Our latest published analysis: HLT rated Sell

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$184 / share

Potential value

$219 / share

Upside to FV

-41.4%

from $349

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$70.7B
Revenue (ttm)	12.7B
Net income (ttm)	1.7B
EPS (ttm)	$7.39
Shares out	222.5M
P/E (trailing)	47.2x
P/E (forward)	28.7x
Dividend	$0.60 (0.17%)
Volume	1,696,909
Beta	1.10

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 12.7B
Net income (ttm): 1.7B
EPS (ttm): $7.39
P/E (trailing): 47.2x
P/E (forward): 28.7x
Market cap: $70.7B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$5.79B	$8.77B	$10.24B	$11.17B	$12.04B	+20.1%
Gross profit	$1.66B	$2.70B	$2.93B	$3.06B	$4.95B	+31.5%
Operating income	$1.01B	$2.09B	$2.23B	$2.37B	$2.69B	+27.8%
Net income	$410.0M	$1.26B	$1.14B	$1.54B	$1.46B	+37.3%
EPS (diluted)	$1.46	$4.53	$4.33	$6.14	$6.12	+43.1%
EBITDA	$1.15B	$2.31B	$2.30B	$2.50B	$2.87B	+25.8%
R&D	$0	$0	$0	—	—	+30.4%
SG&A	$405.0M	$382.0M	$408.0M	$415.0M	$393.0M	-0.7%

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ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	强力买入
AMZN	Amazon.com Inc.	2.7T	20.5x	3.5x	11.9%	+11.8%	+12.2%	卖出
APTV	Aptiv PLC	9.1B	42.8x	0.4x	7.8%	+5.5%	-49.2%	买入
AZO	AutoZone Inc.	50.8B	20.7x	2.5x	26.3%	+6.8%	-17.3%	持有

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$183.91

-41.4% from spot

The base case reflects the modal operating trajectory: Hilton delivers steady net unit supply growth aligned with management guidance, supported by its extensive development pipeline with nearly half of rooms under construction. System-wide RevPAR expands at a moderate pace, balancing domestic leisure and business travel stability against localized international headwinds. Operating cash flow conversion remains exceptional, though fee flow-through is tempered by franchisee support initiatives, while share repurchases continue to compound per-share metrics.

Net unit supply growth tracks within management guidance ranges.
System-wide RevPAR expands at low-to-mid single digit rates.
Franchise and management fees continue to represent over ninety percent of earnings.
Capital returns continue in line with guided annual targets, partially funded through debt.

Bull20%

Price target

$218.97

-30.3% from spot

In the bull case, global travel mobility expands rapidly, led by accelerated independent hotel conversions into Hilton soft brands and sustained international business transient demand. Operating margins expand toward historical highs as owned property renovation headwinds subside and fee collections scale with high operating leverage. Programmatic share repurchases continue to retire float, driving double-digit per-share compounding and multiple expansion.

Net unit room supply growth accelerates above historical guidance on strong brand conversions.
System-wide RevPAR growth accelerates across European and Americas markets.
Consolidated operating margins expand as temporary property renovation drags conclude.
Diluted share count contracts at a rapid annual clip via continuous cash return programs.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($183.91). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	3.3%	3.5%
8.7%	$189	$189	$189	$189	$189
9.2%	$186	$186	$186	$186	$186
9.7%	$184	$184	$184	$184	$184
10.2%	$182	$182	$182	$182	$182
10.7%	$179	$179	$179	$179	$179

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E28.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E46.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROEn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC15.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All HLT indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

261

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 261 of 261 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001585689
Company name	Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	43300A203
Earnings date	2026-10-27
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	182,000
Employees change	1,000
Employees growth	0.55%
Enterprise value	$90.7B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1919
In index	SP500
Industry	Lodging
IPO date	2013-12-12
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US43300A2033
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-11
Last earnings date	2026-10-27
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2017-01-04
Last stock split type	Reverse
Market cap	$77.7B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-02-10
Options	Yes
Price	$348.99
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Discretionary
SIC code	7011
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	HLT
U.S. state	Virginia
Website	https://www.hilton.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	39.52x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	81.42x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	42.53x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	42.7x
Earnings yield	2.12%
EV/Earnings	53.55x
EV/EBIT	30.05x
EV/EBITDA	28.24x
EV/FCF	44.86x
EV/Sales	7.17x
FCF / EV yield	2.23%
FCF yield	2.6%
Forward EV/Sales	6.59x
Forward P/E	34.84x
Forward P/S	5.65x
Industry forward P/E	28.72x
Industry P/E	37.36x
Lynch fair value	$184.85
Lynch upside	-47.28%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	42.31x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	40.55x
P/E ratio	47.2x
P/FCF ratio	38.45x
P/OCF ratio	36.99x
P/S ratio	6.15x
PEG ratio	2.52x
Price/EBITDA ratio	24.21x
Sector forward P/E	24.39x
Sector P/E	30.5x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	23.87%
EBITDA margin	25.4%
Effective tax rate	27.67%
FCF margin	16.25%
Gross margin	32.43%
Operating margin	23.87%
Pretax margin	18.51%
Profit margin	13.4%
Profit per employee	$9,341
Profitable quarters	22
Profitable years	5
Revenue per employee	$69,725
ROA	11.03%
ROA (5Y)	8.19%
ROCE	24.43%
ROIC	15.66%
ROIC (5Y)	12.79%
SBC / revenue	1.48%
Tax / revenue	5.12%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	6.92%
EPS growth (Q)	33.15%
EPS growth (QoQ)	12.86%
EPS growth 10Y	4.66%
EPS growth 3Y	14.3%
EPS growth 5Y	120.95%
EPS growth quarters	3
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	-9.78%
FCF growth 3Y	3.22%
Gross profit growth	9.01%
Gross profit growth (Q)	8.05%
Gross profit growth 3Y	8.87%
Gross profit growth 5Y	23.03%
Net income growth	2.1%
Net income growth (Q)	27.62%
Net income growth (QoQ)	11.2%
Net income growth 3Y	8.74%
Net income growth 5Y	112.75%
Net income growth quarters	3
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	-10.48%
OCF growth 10Y	3.66%
OCF growth 3Y	2.7%
Operating income growth	17.91%
Operating income growth (Q)	17.44%
Operating income growth 3Y	8.94%
Operating income growth 5Y	37.29%
Revenue growth	8.14%
Revenue growth (Q)	6.57%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-0.48%
Revenue growth 10Y	11.53%
Revenue growth 3Y	8.01%
Revenue growth 5Y	21.25%
Revenue growth quarters	22
Revenue growth years	5

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-80M
Depreciation and amortization	$194M
EBIT	$3B
EBITDA	$3.2B
EPS	$7.39
FCF per share	$9.12
Financing cash flow	$-1.3B
Free cash flow	$2B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.8B
Gross profit	$4.1B
Income taxes	$650M
Investing cash flow	$-184M
Net borrowing	$2.2B
Net cash flow	$616M
Net income	$1.7B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$1.9B
Operating income	$3B
Revenue	$12.7B
Stock-based compensation	$185M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$-27.93
Debt / EBITDA	4.35
Debt / FCF	6.91
Interest coverage	4.36
Net cash (debt)	$-13B
Net cash / market cap	-16.68%
Net debt / EBITDA	4.04
Net debt / FCF	6.41
Piotroski F-Score	7
Shareholders' equity	$-6.3B
Tangible book value	$-18.1B
Tangible book value per share	$-80.14
Total cash	$1B
Total debt	$14B
WACC	9.3%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.76
Current ratio	0.65
Quick ratio	0.55
Working capital	$-1.8B

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	4.57%
Dividend growth	0%
Dividend growth (10Y)	-3.31%
Dividend growth (3Y)	0%
Dividend growth (5Y)	31.95%
Dividend growth years	0
Dividend payment date	2026-09-30
Dividend payment years	5
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$0.60
Dividend yield	0.17%
Ex-dividend date	2026-08-21
FCF payout ratio	6.66%
Last dividend	$0.15
Payout ratio	8.11%
Shareholder yield	4.74%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	424.69%
10Y return CAGR	23.12%
10Y total return	700.24%
150-day SMA	$325.51
1D price change	1.26%
1M price change	11.55%
1M total return	11.55%
1W price change	-2.52%
1W total return	-2.52%
1Y price change	31.56%
1Y return CAGR	31.84%
1Y total return	31.82%
20-day SMA	$336.96
200-day SMA	$320.30
3M price change	5.86%
3M total return	5.91%
3Y price change	134.79%
3Y return CAGR	33.23%
3Y total return	136.52%
50-day SMA	$324.04
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$364.50
52-week high date	2026-10-21
52-week low	$253.54
52-week low date	2025-11-03
5Y price change	137.9%
5Y return CAGR	19.26%
5Y total return	141.21%
6M price change	5.35%
6M total return	5.45%
All-time high	$364.50
All-time high date	2026-10-21
All-time low	$44.30
All-time low date	2020-03-18
Average true range (ATR)	$8.23
Average volume	1.8M
Beta (1Y)	0.43
Beta (2Y)	0.78
Beta (5Y)	1.1
Change from 52-week high	-4.26%
Change from 52-week low	37.65%
Change from all-time high	-3.91%
Change from all-time low	690.59%
Change from open	1.16%
Day's gap	0.1%
Dollar volume	$592.2M
High price	$351.99
Low price	$343.75
Monthly RSI	74.35
Open price	$345.00
Position in 52-week range	63.59%
Premarket change	3.12%
Premarket close	$344.65
Premarket price	$355.40
Premarket volume	283
Previous close	$344.65
Price vs 150-day SMA	7.59%
Price vs 20-day SMA	3.94%
Price vs 200-day SMA	9.35%
Price vs 50-day SMA	8.08%
Relative volume	0.96
RSI	61.92
Sharpe ratio	1.11
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.21
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.68
Sortino ratio	2.02
Sortino ratio (3Y)	2.13
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.23
Volume	1.7M
Weekly RSI	65.86
YTD price change	21.93%
YTD total return	22.1%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	220.8M
Float percentage	99.22%
Shares change (QoQ)	-1.31%
Shares change (YoY)	-4.57%
Shares held by insiders	1.82%
Shares held by institutions	97.53%
Shares outstanding	222.5M
Short % of float	2.53%
Short % of shares	2.51%
Short ratio	3.3 days

Deeper analysis on HLT

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this HLT report

What is the latest published HLT stock rating?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full HLT analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27, lives at /stocks/HLT/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for HLT?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-27 gives HLT a fair value of USD 184 and a potential value of USD 219. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the HLT page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-27). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellHLT · Fair value $184-41.4%

Read full analysis →

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)

Our latest published analysis: HLT rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · HLT

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All HLT indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on HLT

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	3.0
Profitability	6.5
Revenue Growth	4.5
Risk Assessment	4.5
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	8.0
Capital Efficiency	7.5