Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)

NYSE: HWM · USD

$195

+2.65 (+1.4%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-28

Our latest published analysis: HWM rated Sell

Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$87.3 / share

Potential value

$107 / share

Upside to FV

-62.4%

from $195

Moat

8.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$92.7B
Revenue (ttm)	9.1B
Net income (ttm)	1.9B
EPS (ttm)	$4.64
Shares out	398.8M
P/E (trailing)	42.0x
P/E (forward)	36.0x
Dividend	$0.56 (0.29%)
Volume	3,348,919
Beta	1.20

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 9.1B
Net income (ttm): 1.9B
EPS (ttm): $4.64
P/E (trailing): 42.0x
P/E (forward): 36.0x
Market cap: $92.7B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$4.97B	$5.66B	$6.64B	$7.43B	$8.25B	+13.5%
Gross profit	$1.13B	$1.35B	$1.61B	$2.05B	$2.54B	+22.3%
Operating income	$748.0M	$919.0M	$1.20B	$1.63B	$2.05B	+28.6%
Net income	$258.0M	$469.0M	$765.0M	$1.16B	$1.51B	+55.5%
EPS (diluted)	$0.59	$1.11	$1.83	$2.81	$3.71	+58.4%
EBITDA	$853.0M	$1.10B	$1.47B	$1.84B	$2.27B	+27.8%
R&D	$17.0M	$32.0M	$36.0M	$33.0M	$37.0M	+21.5%
SG&A	$251.0M	$288.0M	$333.0M	$347.0M	$370.0M	+10.2%

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ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	强力买入
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	持有
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	113B	25.3x	5.1x	62.8%	+7.7%	+4.5%	持有
ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	持有

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$87.31

-62.4% from spot

The Base scenario reflects our house forecast schedule, where revenue expands to $10,056M in FY2026 and $11,439M in FY2027, consistent with management full-year guidance. Operating margins expand from 24.79% in FY2025 to 25.90% by FY2030 as casting pit utilization remains fully committed. Supported by a 90% free cash flow conversion rate, enterprise DCF ($82.07) and owner earnings ($81.31) establish a synthesized fair value midpoint of $87.31.

Revenue CAGR of 12.13% through FY2030, anchored by FY2026 revenue of $10,056M and FY2027 revenue of $11,439M
Operating margin normalizing from 24.42% in FY2026 to 25.90% by FY2030
Capital expenditures exceeding $500M in FY2026, with reinvestment rate moderating from 20% to 14% as new capacity commissions
Terminal valuation multiple of 22.0x P/E and 3.5x EV/Revenue based on aerospace component leader benchmarks

Bull20%

Price target

$106.76

-54.1% from spot

The Bull scenario models accelerated commercial widebody assembly rates on the A350 and 787, rapid operationalization of multi-deposition coating lines, and aggressive expansion in terrestrial IGT capacity agreements. Surging aftermarket demand for LEAP-1B and Pratt & Whitney GTF spare aerofoils expands operating margins past 28.0%, driving valuation toward the upper bound of our fair value range at $106.76.

Consolidated revenue growth of 22.5% in FY2026 and 14.0% in FY2027 supported by accelerated widebody production
Operating margins expanding toward 28.5% driven by high-margin spare parts intensity on LEAP-1B and GTF retrofits
Rapid integration of CAM with segment EBITDA margins accreting toward legacy 30% fastening levels
Exit multiple expands on forward earnings reflecting premium scarcity value for proprietary aero components

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($87.31). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	3.3%	3.5%
8.4%	$91.9	$93.4	$94.9	$96.6	$98.5
8.9%	$88.4	$89.5	$90.8	$92.2	$93.7
9.4%	$85.2	$86.2	$87.3	$88.5	$89.7
9.9%	$82.5	$83.4	$84.3	$85.2	$86.3
10.4%	$80.1	$80.8	$81.6	$82.4	$83.3

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E36

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E50

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE34.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC23

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All HWM indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

281

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 281 of 281 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000004281
Company name	Howmet Aerospace Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	443201108
Earnings date	2026-10-29
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	25,430
Employees change	1,500
Employees growth	6.27%
Enterprise value	$81.7B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1888
In index	SP500
Industry	Aerospace & Defense
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US4432011082
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-12
Last earnings date	2026-08-06
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$77.6B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-10-29
Options	Yes
Price	$194.64
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	3350
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	HWM
U.S. state	Pennsylvania
Website	https://www.howmet.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	42.78x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	38.87x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	43.18x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	42.05x
Earnings yield	2.38%
EV/Earnings	43.78x
EV/EBIT	32.87x
EV/EBITDA	29.3x
EV/FCF	45.71x
EV/Sales	8.98x
FCF / EV yield	2.19%
FCF yield	2.3%
Forward EV/Sales	7.51x
Forward P/E	32.92x
Forward P/S	7.13x
Graham number	38.66519
Graham upside	-80.17%
Industry forward P/E	38.61x
Industry P/E	78.67x
Lynch fair value	$115.92
Lynch upside	-40.55%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	45.74x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	36.51x
P/B ratio	13.4x
P/E ratio	41.98x
P/FCF ratio	43.42x
P/OCF ratio	35.01x
P/S ratio	8.53x
PEG ratio	1.07x
Price/EBITDA ratio	27.83x
Sector forward P/E	26.03x
Sector P/E	40.37x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	27.32%
EBITDA margin	30.65%
Effective tax rate	18.01%
FCF margin	19.64%
Gross margin	36.03%
Operating margin	27.32%
Pretax margin	25.03%
Profit margin	20.52%
Profit per employee	$73,535
Profitable quarters	24
Profitable years	8
Revenue per employee	$358,514
ROA	12.82%
ROA (5Y)	7.94%
ROCE	22.76%
ROE	34.73%
ROE (5Y)	19.57%
ROIC	22.99%
ROIC (5Y)	14.75%
SBC / revenue	1%
Tax / revenue	4.51%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	35.57%
EPS growth (Q)	33%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-7.64%
EPS growth 10Y	21.93%
EPS growth 3Y	54.46%
EPS growth 5Y	46.88%
EPS growth quarters	18
EPS growth years	4
FCF growth	75.93%
FCF growth (Q)	39.24%
FCF growth (QoQ)	33.43%
FCF growth 3Y	45.62%
FCF growth 5Y	81.47%
Gross profit growth	30.77%
Gross profit growth (Q)	38.23%
Gross profit growth 3Y	24.56%
Gross profit growth 5Y	19.98%
Net income growth	33.93%
Net income growth (Q)	31.2%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-7.93%
Net income growth 3Y	52.24%
Net income growth 5Y	44.78%
Net income growth quarters	18
Net income growth years	4
OCF growth	56.08%
OCF growth (Q)	30.72%
OCF growth (QoQ)	28.7%
OCF growth 10Y	2.87%
OCF growth 3Y	42.23%
OCF growth 5Y	52.99%
Operating income growth	35.53%
Operating income growth (Q)	41.25%
Operating income growth 3Y	32.33%
Operating income growth 5Y	26.76%
Revenue growth	18.08%
Revenue growth (Q)	24.06%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	10.12%
Revenue growth 10Y	-3.14%
Revenue growth 3Y	13.73%
Revenue growth 5Y	13.8%
Revenue growth quarters	20
Revenue growth years	4

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-430M
Depreciation and amortization	$303M
EBIT	$2.5B
EBITDA	$2.8B
EPS	$4.64
FCF per share	$4.49
Financing cash flow	$-78M
Free cash flow	$1.8B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.7B
Gross profit	$3.3B
Income taxes	$411M
Investing cash flow	$-2.1B
Net borrowing	$1.3B
Net cash flow	$18M
Net income	$1.9B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$2.1B
Operating income	$2.5B
Revenue	$9.1B
Stock-based compensation	$91M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	8.99
Book value per share	$14.33
Debt / EBITDA	1.62
Debt / equity	0.81
Debt / FCF	2.6
Goodwill	$5.1B
Interest coverage	14.83
Long-term assets	$9.1B
Long-term liabilities	$5.2B
Net cash (debt)	$-4.1B
Net cash / market cap	-5.27%
Net debt / EBITDA	1.47
Net debt / equity	0.72
Net debt / FCF	2.29
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$3B
Shareholders' equity	$5.7B
Tangible book value	$-221M
Tangible book value per share	$-0.55
Total assets	$13.3B
Total cash	$563M
Total debt	$4.7B
Total liabilities	$7.5B
WACC	10.43%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.75
Current assets	$4.2B
Current liabilities	$2.3B
Current ratio	1.82
Inventory turnover	2.81
Net working capital	$1.8B
Quick ratio	0.7
Working capital	$1.9B
Working capital turnover	4.58

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	1.1%
Dividend growth	18.18%
Dividend growth (3Y)	45.16%
Dividend growth (5Y)	67.03%
Dividend growth years	5
Dividend payment date	2026-11-25
Dividend payment years	11
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$0.56
Dividend yield	0.29%
Ex-dividend date	2026-11-06
FCF payout ratio	11.58%
Last dividend	$0.14
Payout ratio	11.21%
Shareholder yield	1.39%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
150-day SMA	$253.12
1D price change	1.38%
1M price change	-16.28%
1M total return	-16.28%
1W price change	-6.49%
1W total return	-6.49%
1Y price change	-3.57%
1Y return CAGR	-3.37%
1Y total return	-3.37%
20-day SMA	$214.36
200-day SMA	$248.87
3M price change	-32.4%
3M total return	-32.37%
3Y price change	351.69%
3Y return CAGR	65.74%
3Y total return	355.43%
50-day SMA	$232.06
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$310.00
52-week high date	2026-08-06
52-week low	$183.52
52-week low date	2026-10-23
5Y price change	562.47%
5Y return CAGR	46.39%
5Y total return	572.11%
6M price change	-19.47%
6M total return	-19.4%
All-time high	$310.00
All-time high date	2026-08-06
All-time low	$9.87
All-time low date	2020-05-14
Average true range (ATR)	$8.00
Average volume	3.5M
Beta (1Y)	1.05
Beta (2Y)	1.41
Beta (5Y)	1.2
Change from 52-week high	-37.21%
Change from 52-week low	6.06%
Change from all-time high	-37.21%
Change from all-time low	1,871.99%
Change from open	0.61%
Day's gap	0.76%
Dollar volume	$651.8M
High price	$198.62
Low price	$192.97
Monthly RSI	51.13
Open price	$193.45
Position in 52-week range	29.47%
Premarket change	1.72%
Premarket close	$191.99
Premarket price	$195.30
Premarket volume	8.8K
Previous close	$191.99
Price vs 150-day SMA	-23.1%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-9.2%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-21.79%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-16.13%
Relative volume	0.95
RSI	31.61
Sharpe ratio	-0.04
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.51
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	1.17
Sortino ratio	0.11
Sortino ratio (3Y)	2.59
Sortino ratio (5Y)	2
Volume	3.3M
Weekly RSI	32.31
YTD price change	-5.07%
YTD total return	-4.92%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	395.2M
Float percentage	99.1%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.25%
Shares change (YoY)	-1.1%
Shares held by insiders	0.79%
Shares held by institutions	93.54%
Shares outstanding	398.8M
Short % of float	2.57%
Short % of shares	2.55%
Short ratio	2.6 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	247

Deeper analysis on HWM

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this HWM report

What is the latest published HWM stock rating?

Howmet Aerospace Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-28. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full HWM analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-28, lives at /stocks/HWM/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for HWM?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-28 gives HWM a fair value of USD 87 and a potential value of USD 107. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the HWM page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-28). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellHWM · Fair value $87.3-62.4%

Read full analysis →

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)

Our latest published analysis: HWM rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · HWM

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All HWM indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on HWM

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	6.0
Profitability	7.5
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	6.5
Competitive Moat	8.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	7.5