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IDXX trades against a final fair-value range of $231.99-$439.23, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $232, high $439, with mid-point at $335.
Stock analysis

IDXX fair value $232–$439

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-13下次更新: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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股价
$533.92
▼ -198.84 (-37.24%)
公允价值
$335
$232–$439
评级
卖出
confidence 79/100
上行空间
-37.2%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$284.82
MoS level · 15%
市值
$42.1B
P/E fwd 32.4
英文原文ZH
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§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $335 with high case $439.
  • Implied downside of 37.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 79/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$335
Margin of safety
-59.3%
Confidence
79/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$533.92Price
Low $231.99
Mid $335.08
High $439.23

IDXX trades against a final fair-value range of $231.99-$439.23, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Razor-and-blade diagnostic instrument model
    Razor-and-blade diagnostic instrument model
  • High switching costs locking in
    High switching costs locking in veterinary clinics
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating global pet humanization, increased diagnostic utilization per clinical visit, and ongoing margin expansion from software integration.

§2 看空情景

A prolonged macroeconomic downturn could reduce discretionary veterinary clinic traffic, stalling instrument placements and consumable volume growth, while a high starting valuation multiple compresses.

该论点可能失败的方式

Severe Valuation Compression

· High

Market recalibrates the extreme 39x trailing P/E multiple down to the model's 25x terminal multiple constraint.

FV impact
-37% to base case midpoint of $335.08

Macroeconomic Traffic Downturn

· Medium

A prolonged recession reduces discretionary veterinary clinic traffic, stalling instrument placements and recurring consumable volumes.

FV impact
Drives valuation toward the $231.99 bear case low

Margin Degradation

· Low

Competition forces aggressive pricing, causing operating margins to fall below the historically stable 30-31.6% range.

FV impact
Erodes 41.7% ROIC and compresses intrinsic fair value further
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Operating margins falling below 30% indicating pricing power erosion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Consumables volume growth dropping below mid-single digits.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in new point-of-care instrument placements.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Market-implied growth expectations failing to meet the 15.29% hurdle.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Terminal multiple compression accelerating toward the 25x model anchor.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期间2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
营业收入$3.22B$3.37B$3.66B$3.90B$4.30B+7.6%
毛利$1.89B$2.00B$2.19B$2.38B$2.66B+8.9%
营业利润$932.0M$898.8M$1.10B$1.13B$1.36B+9.9%
净利润$744.8M$679.1M$845.0M$887.9M$1.06B+9.2%
每股收益(摊薄)$8.03$10.06$10.67$13.08+13.0%
EBITDA$1.04B$1.01B$1.22B$1.27B$1.51B+9.8%
研发$161.0M$254.8M$191.0M$219.8M$251.2M+11.8%
销售管理费用$796.4M$850.8M$901.9M$1.03B$1.05B+7.1%

质量评分

OCF / 净利润
1.12×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Fail
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
41.7%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

现金流

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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CASH FLOW FAQ

IDXX cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for IDXX (IDXX) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
FAQ

IDXX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, IDXX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $534 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $335 (range $232–$439), which implies roughly 37.2% downside to the midpoint.
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