Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)

NASDAQ: KDP · USD

$34.9

+0.08 (+0.2%)· Recorded snapshot

英文原文ZH

翻译期间显示英文原文

此报告尚未翻译。翻译队列赶上后请在几分钟内刷新。

StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: KDP rated Strong Buy

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.'s published Strong Buy conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$59.1 / share

Potential value

$96.7 / share

Upside to FV

+94.6%

from $34.9

Moat

7/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$41.3B
Revenue (ttm)	20.1B
Net income (ttm)	1.3B
EPS (ttm)	$0.99
Shares out	1.4B
P/E (trailing)	35.3x
P/E (forward)	12.4x
Dividend	$0.92 (2.63%)
Volume	9,640,201
Beta	0.41

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 20.1B
Net income (ttm): 1.3B
EPS (ttm): $0.99
P/E (trailing): 35.3x
P/E (forward): 12.4x
Market cap: $41.3B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$12.68B	$14.06B	$14.81B	$15.35B	$16.60B	+7.0%
Gross profit	$6.98B	$7.32B	$8.08B	$8.53B	$9.00B	+6.6%
Operating income	$2.89B	$2.61B	$3.19B	$2.59B	$3.58B	+5.4%
Net income	$2.15B	$1.44B	$2.18B	$1.44B	$2.08B	-0.8%
EPS (diluted)	$1.50	$1.01	$1.55	$1.05	$1.53	+0.5%
EBITDA	$4.01B	$3.12B	$3.97B	$3.38B	$4.19B	+1.2%
R&D	$66.0M	$65.0M	$66.0M	$70.0M	$70.0M	+1.5%
SG&A	$4.15B	$4.65B	$4.91B	$5.01B	$5.35B	+6.5%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	卖出
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	卖出
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	强力买入
ADM	Archer-Daniels-Midland Company	37.3B	21.2x	0.5x	5.0%	+1.8%	+28.5%	减持
BF.B	Brown-Forman Corporation Class B	12.7B	17.9x	3.3x	14.3%	+1.6%	+0.4%	买入
CAG	Conagra Brands, Inc.	6.6B	—	0.6x	9.2%	+0.2%	-18.9%	强力买入

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$59.09

+94.6% from spot

The base scenario reflects the modal trajectory of a mature consumer packaged goods compounder. Solid mid-single-digit growth in U.S. Refreshment Beverages and International counterbalances mature single-serve coffee dynamics. Consolidated operating margins recover steadily as integration synergies offset initial gross margin dilution, supporting dependable cash flow conversion dedicated to steady deleveraging and dividend payments.

Consolidated net sales grow from $26,309M in FY2026 to $29,950M in FY2027, normalizing to 3.5-5.0% organic growth through FY2030
Consolidated operating margin normalizes from 20.80% in FY2026 to 21.50% by FY2030 as $400M in synergies are captured
Consensus diluted EPS of $2.29 in FY2026 and $2.53 in FY2027, compounding toward $3.12 by FY2030
Terminal P/E multiple of 14.50x, terminal growth of 2.50%, and firm WACC of 6.16%

Bull20%

Price target

$96.73

+218.5% from spot

In the bull scenario, integration of the combined coffee business accelerates, capturing procurement and logistical synergies ahead of timetable. Core refreshment brands gain further market share across cold-vault channels, propelled by strong execution in zero-sugar line extensions and expanding distribution partnerships. Operating margins expand past pre-acquisition levels, and robust free cash flow generation enables rapid debt amortization, prompting the market to re-rate KDP toward premium peer multiples.

JDE Peet's $400M synergy program achieved ahead of schedule, driving FY2027 diluted EPS toward high estimate of $2.64
U.S. Refreshment Beverages expands retail share above 10% across accounts, driving 5.5-6.5% top-line organic growth
Consolidated operating margins expand beyond pre-acquisition levels on distribution route density and supply-chain automation
Free cash flow generation accelerates substantially, driving rapid debt paydown below target leverage and triggering multiple re-rating toward peer medians

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($59.09). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
5.2%	$65.8	$69.9	$74.7	$80.3	$87.2
5.7%	$58.2	$61.2	$64.6	$68.6	$73.3
6.2%	$52.2	$54.5	$59.1	$60.0	$63.4
6.7%	$47.4	$49.2	$51.3	$53.5	$56.1
7.2%	$43.5	$45.0	$46.6	$48.4	$50.3

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E12.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E30.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE5.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC4.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All KDP indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

282

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 282 of 282 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001418135
Company name	Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	49271V100
Earnings date	2026-11-03
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	30,600
Employees change	1,200
Employees growth	4.08%
Enterprise value	$79.5B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1981
In index	SP500, NASDAQ100
Industry	Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
IPO date	1993-09-21
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US49271V1008
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-24
Last earnings date	2026-08-06
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$47.5B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-03
Options	Yes
Price	$34.94
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Staples
SIC code	2080
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	KDP
U.S. state	Texas
Website	https://www.keurigdrpepper.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	16.64x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	29.45x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	24.17x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	25.79x
Earnings yield	2.83%
EV/Earnings	58.94x
EV/EBIT	20.66x
EV/EBITDA	16.49x
EV/FCF	40.24x
EV/Sales	3.95x
FCF / EV yield	2.49%
FCF yield	4.17%
Forward EV/Sales	2.69x
Forward P/E	14.38x
Forward P/S	1.6x
Graham number	20.23787
Graham upside	-41.74%
Industry forward P/E	21.4x
Industry P/E	24.3x
Lynch fair value	$4.95
Lynch upside	-85.76%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	25.47x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	19.59x
P/B ratio	1.9x
P/E ratio	35.3x
P/FCF ratio	23.99x
P/OCF ratio	18.71x
P/S ratio	2.35x
PEG ratio	1.52x
Price/EBITDA ratio	9.83x
Sector forward P/E	21.33x
Sector P/E	28.29x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	19.1%
EBITDA margin	23.93%
Effective tax rate	24.15%
FCF margin	9.81%
Gross margin	50.96%
Operating margin	19.1%
Pretax margin	9.81%
Profit margin	7.1%
Profit per employee	$43,954
Profitable quarters	6
Profitable years	17
Revenue per employee	$656,536
ROA	3.38%
ROA (5Y)	3.89%
ROCE	5.65%
ROE	5.1%
ROE (5Y)	7.45%
ROIC	4.58%
ROIC (5Y)	6.35%
SBC / revenue	0.57%
Tax / revenue	2.37%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-12.31%
EPS growth (Q)	-90%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-79.86%
EPS growth 10Y	-11.58%
EPS growth 3Y	-4.53%
EPS growth 5Y	-2.95%
EPS growth years	1
FCF growth	23.05%
FCF growth (Q)	119.69%
FCF growth (QoQ)	332.73%
FCF growth 3Y	6.43%
FCF growth 5Y	-1.68%
Gross profit growth	18.25%
Gross profit growth (Q)	49.89%
Gross profit growth 3Y	10.08%
Gross profit growth 5Y	8.25%
Net income growth	-7.1%
Net income growth (Q)	-74.04%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-77.78%
Net income growth 3Y	-5.68%
Net income growth 5Y	-3.94%
Net income growth years	1
OCF growth	19.37%
OCF growth (Q)	107.66%
OCF growth (QoQ)	218.51%
OCF growth 10Y	17.45%
OCF growth 3Y	9.02%
OCF growth 5Y	-0.05%
Operating income growth	11.19%
Operating income growth (Q)	4.9%
Operating income growth 3Y	9.23%
Operating income growth 5Y	3.67%
Revenue growth	27.48%
Revenue growth (Q)	75.57%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	83.83%
Revenue growth 10Y	15.69%
Revenue growth 3Y	11.31%
Revenue growth 5Y	10.52%
Revenue growth quarters	32
Revenue growth years	8

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-557M
Depreciation and amortization	$970M
EBIT	$3.8B
EBITDA	$4.8B
EPS	$0.99
FCF per share	$1.45
Financing cash flow	$16B
Free cash flow	$2B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.9B
Gross profit	$10.2B
Income taxes	$476M
Investing cash flow	$-17.2B
Net borrowing	$9.2B
Net cash flow	$988M
Net income	$1.3B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$2.4B
Operating income	$3.8B
Revenue	$20.1B
Stock-based compensation	$114M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	0.76
Book value per share	$18.40
Debt / EBITDA	6.63
Debt / equity	1
Debt / FCF	17.02
Goodwill	$29.8B
Interest coverage	3.68
Long-term assets	$78.2B
Long-term liabilities	$34.2B
Net cash (debt)	$-32B
Net cash / market cap	-67.7%
Net debt / EBITDA	6.66
Net debt / equity	0.95
Net debt / FCF	16.24
Piotroski F-Score	4
Property, plant and equipment	$7.4B
Shareholders' equity	$33.6B
Tangible book value	$-42.8B
Tangible book value per share	$-31.48
Total assets	$87.6B
Total cash	$1.5B
Total debt	$33.5B
Total liabilities	$54B
WACC	4.78%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.28
Current assets	$9.5B
Current liabilities	$19.7B
Current ratio	0.48
Inventory turnover	3.44
Net working capital	$-3B
Quick ratio	0.2
Working capital	$-10.3B
Working capital turnover	-3.12

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-0.09%
Dividend growth	0%
Dividend growth (3Y)	4.12%
Dividend growth (5Y)	6.39%
Dividend growth years	5
Dividend payment date	2026-10-09
Dividend payment years	9
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$0.92
Dividend yield	2.63%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-28
FCF payout ratio	63.55%
Last dividend	$0.23
Payout ratio	92.97%
Shareholder yield	2.56%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
150-day SMA	$30.48
1D price change	0.22%
1M price change	8.97%
1M total return	9.76%
1W price change	0.53%
1W total return	0.53%
1Y price change	19.11%
1Y return CAGR	22.92%
1Y total return	22.9%
20-day SMA	$33.10
200-day SMA	$29.92
3M price change	15.59%
3M total return	16.43%
3Y price change	16.56%
3Y return CAGR	8.35%
3Y total return	27.2%
50-day SMA	$32.27
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$35.40
52-week high date	2026-10-23
52-week low	$24.88
52-week low date	2026-04-06
5Y price change	1.8%
5Y return CAGR	3.06%
5Y total return	16.25%
6M price change	23.68%
6M total return	25.46%
After-hours change	-0.01%
After-hours close	$34.94
After-hours price	$34.93
All-time high	$41.31
All-time high date	2022-08-18
All-time low	$18.98
All-time low date	2020-03-18
Average true range (ATR)	$0.75
Average volume	12.8M
Beta (1Y)	-0.06
Beta (2Y)	0.16
Beta (5Y)	0.41
Change from 52-week high	-1.32%
Change from 52-week low	40.44%
Change from all-time high	-15.72%
Change from all-time low	83.43%
Change from open	1.23%
Day's gap	-1%
Dollar volume	$336.8M
High price	$35.02
Low price	$34.51
Monthly RSI	57.66
Open price	$34.51
Position in 52-week range	83.33%
Premarket change	-0.98%
Premarket close	$34.86
Premarket price	$34.52
Premarket volume	3.6K
Previous close	$34.86
Price vs 150-day SMA	14.21%
Price vs 20-day SMA	5.17%
Price vs 200-day SMA	16.35%
Price vs 50-day SMA	7.88%
Relative volume	0.75
RSI	65.04
Sharpe ratio	0.76
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.37
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.05
Sortino ratio	1.38
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.74
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.31
Volume	9.6M
Weekly RSI	63.94
YTD price change	24.3%
YTD total return	28.26%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	1.4B
Float percentage	99.53%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.06%
Shares change (YoY)	0.09%
Shares held by insiders	0.37%
Shares held by institutions	113.5%
Shares outstanding	1.4B
Short % of float	5.43%
Short % of shares	5.4%
Short ratio	7.2 days

Deeper analysis on KDP

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this KDP report

What is the latest published KDP stock rating?

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is shown with Strong Buy in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full KDP analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/KDP/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for KDP?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives KDP a fair value of USD 59 and a potential value of USD 97. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the KDP page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

Strong BuyKDP · Fair value $59.1+94.6%

Read full analysis →

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)

Our latest published analysis: KDP rated Strong Buy

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · KDP

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All KDP indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on KDP

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	9.5
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	3.0
Profitability	5.0
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	6.0
Competitive Moat	7.0
Earnings Quality	4.5
Capital Efficiency	5.5