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Improving component supply could release delayed shipments while advanced-packaging and service demand support sales and profit.
Semiconductor Process Control annual revenue growth falls below 5% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Sell: the $185.60 report-date price stands above $109.19 Fair value and $128.93 Potential value.3
For an ordinary investor, Sell means avoiding a new position and reducing existing exposure while this valuation gap remains.
The implied change from the report-date price to Fair value is negative 41.17%. Potential value also remains below the report-date price.3
The clearest upside is improving component supply. Released shipments and advanced-packaging demand could sustain near-term growth if margins remain resilient.4
Management describes broad node demand and high-value products. This supports breadth, but does not prove durable switching costs.4
The expansion can continue if advanced-packaging demand and easing component constraints release delayed shipments. Industry growth is supportive context, not a direct company forecast.4
Sell because credible near-term growth does not justify the report-date price relative to Fair value.3
Sell because credible near-term growth does not justify the report-date price relative to Fair value.3
KLA develops industry-leading process control and yield management solutions and services that enable innovation throughout the semiconductor and related electronics industries. KLA CORP provides advanced process control and process-enabling solutions for manufacturing wafers, reticles, ICs, packaging, PCBs and IC substrates. President Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 (“CHIPS Act,” where “CHIPS” stands for Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors) on August 9, 2022. There was no material tax impact to its Consolidated Financial Statements from the AMIC provision. Its operating segments are aggregated into reportable segments based on several factors including, but not limited to, customer base, homogeneity of products, technology, delivery channels and similar economic characteristics.
KLA CORP has three reportable segments: Semiconductor Process Control; Specialty Semiconductor Process; and PCB and Component Inspection. (1)Other segment items for each reportable segment includes:
The main operating stress combines slower core demand, reduced purchases by the largest customer, and delayed shipments. Sales would weaken first, followed by fixed-cost absorption, margins, earnings, and free cash flow.
That would reduce sales and fixed-cost absorption. Improving supply and the FY2026 margin structure holding through FY2028 would disconfirm this path.
The thesis breaks if annual process-control growth falls below 5% for two fiscal years while the largest customer cuts purchases or presses pricing.7
More than two consecutive constrained quarters would turn shipment timing into weaker sales and higher supplier, inventory, or working-capital needs.4
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
Because the segment supplied most FY2026 revenue, weaker growth would flow directly into company sales. Lower sales would reduce fixed-cost absorption, operating profit, and cash generation.
当前：FY2026 process-control revenue was $12.25 billion.
触发警报：Annual growth below 5% for two consecutive fiscal years.
KLA’s product value across technology nodes may support customer relevance, but the evidence does not establish switching costs, product-level share, or account-level pricing power.
Strong margins and cash generation are business outcomes, not moat sources. The advantage remains conditional on continued process-control demand and stable customer relationships.
FY2026 operating income and free cash flow show strong economics. They do not, by themselves, prove a structural moat.35
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($109.19). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $4.9B after modeled capex of $375.9M, with terminal value at 52.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Better component availability supports growth while FY2026 profitability holds. Weaker annual revenue expectations or sustained margin erosion by FY2028 would disconfirm it.14
Core growth and profitability must persist without a large internal capital build. Renewed shipment limits or weaker margins by FY2028 would disconfirm it.
A beat would strengthen near-term visibility but would not resolve the valuation gap or long-run growth duration.
Meeting guidance preserves the near-term thesis without proving that elevated growth can persist.
A miss with weaker margins or renewed constraints would challenge both growth and cash generation.
FY2026 operating cash was below reported profit, although both remained positive. Investors should require future earnings growth to appear in cash as well.6
Slower core growth would weaken company sales and fixed-cost absorption.7
Lower margins would show that costs or pricing pressure are absorbing growth.
FY2026 operating cash was $4.14 billion and free cash flow was $3.77 billion. Strong cash generation supports resilience. Persistent shipment constraints could delay sales and weaken near-term operating cash generation.456
Diluted average shares declined from 1.362 billion in FY2024 to 1.320 billion in FY2026. Total debt dated 2026-09-08 exceeded filed cash dated 2026-06-30. Because the dates differ, the comparison is directional and future repurchase capacity through a downturn remains uncertain.
FY2026 profit and free cash flow are strong, but those figures alone do not establish a return-on-invested-capital trend.
No ROIC comparison is presented. The report-date WACC is 10.2646%, so economic value creation cannot be quantified here.
FY2026 operating income was $5.66 billion on $13.58 billion of revenue.
Revenue growth can produce substantial earnings, but holding this margin requires pricing and costs to remain disciplined.
FY2026 free cash flow was $3.77 billion after $375.95 million of capital spending.
| 营业收入 | US$3,657,556,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$1,413,108,000 |
| 毛利 | US$2,244,448,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$690,500,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$1,553,948,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$190,889,000 |
| 净利润 | US$1,363,059,000 |
| 总资产 | US$17,951,535,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$1,649,842,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$12,381,790,000 |
| 总负债 | US$11,601,715,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$4,304,927,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$6,349,820,000 |
| 净利润 | US$4,830,771,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$5,534,920,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$393,978,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$310,171,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$4,143,079,000 |
| 经营现金流出 | US$1,391,841,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$6,225,543,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$2,078,908,000 |
| 汇率影响 | US$3,556,000 |
| 投资现金流出 | US$1,190,095,000 |
| 资本支出 | US$375,945,000 |
| 其他投资活动 | US$814,150,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$3,385,606,000 |
| 股份回购 | US$2,289,769,000 |
| 已付股息 | US$1,057,832,000 |
| 净债务偿还 | US$1,602,000 |
| 其他融资活动 | US$36,403,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$1,649,842,000 |
| 投资现金流 | -US$1,190,095,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$3,385,606,000 |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-08-06 · SEC EDGAR
| 按经营分部划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Process Control | US$122.4亿 | 90.2% | 11.9% |
| PCBAnd Component Inspection | US$7.5亿 | 5.5% | 20.7% |
| Specialty Semiconductor Process | US$5.8亿 | 4.3% | -0.5% |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-08-06 · SEC EDGAR
| 按地区划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | US$40.5亿 | 29.8% | 0.1% |
| Taiwan | US$36.4亿 | 26.8% | 13.7% |
| South Korea | US$18.3亿 | 13.5% | 26.2% |
| North America | US$17.6亿 | 12.9% | 29% |
| Japan | US$9.2亿 | 6.7% | -19.2% |
| Europe And Israel | US$7.3亿 | 5.4% | 26.6% |
| Rest Of Asia | US$6.5亿 | 4.8% | 69.6% |
2026-09-08分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-30 | US$34.8亿 | US$13.3亿 | US$9.3亿 | US$10.8亿 | US$10.4亿 | US$3859.4万 | US$5783.6万 | US$5094.3万 | US$2500.2万 | US$3.4亿 | — | -US$5.6亿 | -US$4.7亿 | — | US$11.5亿 | US$30.2亿 | US$29.3亿 | 36.7% | — | — | — |
| 2018-06-30 | US$40.4亿 | US$16亿 | US$8亿 | US$12.3亿 | US$11.6亿 | US$6694.7万 | US$6268.4万 | US$6278.4万 | US$2亿 | US$4亿 | — | US$2.9亿 | -US$12.7亿 | US$11.5亿 | US$14亿 | US$28.8亿 | US$22.4亿 | 38.1% | — | — | — |
| 2019-06-30 | US$45.7亿 | US$16.5亿 | US$11.8亿 | US$11.5亿 | US$10.2亿 | US$1.3亿 | US$2.3亿 | US$9419.4万 | US$11亿 | US$4.7亿 | — | -US$11.8亿 | -US$3.6亿 | US$14亿 | US$10.2亿 | US$17.4亿 | US$34.2亿 | 30.4% | — | — | — |
| 2020-06-30 | US$58.1亿 | US$18.3亿 | US$12.2亿 | US$17.8亿 | US$16.3亿 | US$1.5亿 | US$3.5亿 | US$1.1亿 | US$8.3亿 | US$5.2亿 | — | -US$2.6亿 | -US$13亿 | US$10.2亿 | US$12.3亿 | US$19.8亿 | US$34.7亿 | 30.3% | — | — | — |
| 2021-06-30 | US$69.2亿 | US$28.5亿 | US$20.8亿 | US$21.9亿 | US$19.5亿 | US$2.3亿 | US$3.3亿 | US$1.1亿 | US$9.4亿 | US$5.6亿 | — | -US$5亿 | -US$15亿 | US$12.3亿 | US$14.3亿 | US$24.9亿 | US$34.2亿 | 36.0% | — | 7.0% | — |
| 2022-06-30 | US$92.1亿 | US$40.1亿 | US$33.2亿 | US$33.1亿 | US$30.1亿 | US$3.1亿 | US$3.6亿 | US$1.3亿 | US$39.7亿 | US$6.4亿 | US$32.2亿 | -US$8.8亿 | -US$22.6亿 | US$14.3亿 | US$15.8亿 | US$27.1亿 | US$66.6亿 | 39.7% | — | 8.5% | — |
| 2023-06-30 | US$105亿 | US$45亿 | US$33.9亿 | US$36.7亿 | US$33.3亿 | US$3.4亿 | US$4.2亿 | US$1.7亿 | US$13.1亿 | US$7.3亿 | -US$7.9亿 | -US$4.8亿 | -US$28.3亿 | US$15.8亿 | US$19.3亿 | US$32.4亿 | US$58.9亿 | 38.1% | — | 10.5% | — |
| 2024-06-30 | US$98.1亿 | US$39亿 | US$27.6亿 | US$33.1亿 | US$30.3亿 | US$2.8亿 | US$4亿 | US$2.1亿 | US$17.4亿 | US$7.7亿 | US$7.4亿 | -US$14.8亿 | -US$17.8亿 | US$19.3亿 | US$19.8亿 | US$45亿 | US$58.8亿 | 37.1% | — | 11.1% | — |
| 2025-06-30 | US$121.6亿 | US$53.4亿 | US$40.6亿 | US$40.8亿 | US$37.5亿 | US$3.4亿 | US$3.9亿 | US$2.7亿 | US$21.5亿 | US$9亿 | -US$7.5亿 | -US$2亿 | -US$37.9亿 | US$19.8亿 | US$20.8亿 | US$44.9亿 | US$58.8亿 | 41.2% | — | 10.8% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | US$135.8亿 | US$57.6亿 | US$48.3亿 | US$41.4亿 | US$37.7亿 | US$3.8亿 | US$3.9亿 | US$3.1亿 | US$22.9亿 | US$10.6亿 | -US$160.2万 | -US$11.9亿 | -US$33.9亿 | US$20.8亿 | US$16.5亿 | US$49亿 | US$58.9亿 | 41.7% | — | — | — |
KLA Corporation (KLAC) trades at 32.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 27.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 40.3x compares with a peer median of 36.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Applied Materials Inc., Lam Research Corporation, Teradyne Inc. and ASML Holding N.V., as of 2026-09-02 to 2026-09-08.
Industry capital spending equals 4.1% of revenue and twice depreciation in the benchmark dated 2026-09-01.
The expansion can continue if advanced-packaging demand and easing component constraints release delayed shipments. Industry growth is supportive context, not a direct company forecast.
A digestion phase would weaken process control, which supplied $12.25 billion of $13.58 billion in FY2026 revenue, and reduce fixed-cost absorption. The broad FY2028 company-revenue forecast range shows cycle duration remains uncertain.
Process control supplied $12.25 billion of KLA's $13.58 billion FY2026 revenue. That exposure supports strong participation in an upcycle but makes company results sensitive to equipment-demand digestion.67
No new allocation; reduce existing exposure.. The report-date price exceeds Potential value, while concentration and growth-duration risks remain unresolved.3
Do not average down while the Sell decision holds. Reassess only after valuation and operating triggers improve together.
The $185.60 report-date price is above $109.19 Fair value and $128.93 Potential value.3
Reduce exposure because near-term growth does not offset customer concentration and uncertain growth duration.17
A strong earnings reaction would not close the valuation gap unless future earnings expectations and durable margins also improve.
Sell because the report-date price stands well above Fair value and Potential value.3
Near-term process-control growth is credible, but concentration, supply timing, and uncertain post-FY2028 duration leave insufficient valuation support.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A cost of equity above 12.408% within 12 months would reduce what investors should pay for distant earnings, even if near-term profit remains positive.2
A sustainable earnings multiple below 18.6x within 60 months would lower value as growth matures and investors pay less for each future earnings dollar.
A sustained margin break would show that revenue is converting into less operating profit. That would lower earnings and cash generation.
当前：FY2026 operating margin was 41.69%.
触发警报：Below 39% for two consecutive fiscal quarters.
Because one customer accounts for a material share of revenue, lower purchases would flow directly into company sales. The resulting loss of scale could weaken operating profit and cash generation.
当前：The largest customer represented 19% of FY2026 revenue.
触发警报：At least 19% for another fiscal year with margin deterioration.
Repeated shipment limits would delay sales and weaken near-term cash generation. Persistence would show that component availability is a continuing operating constraint rather than short-lived timing noise.
当前：First-half FY2026 shipments were constrained, while second-half supply was improving.
触发警报：Constraints reported for more than two consecutive quarters.
A verified regional disruption would hit a large reported revenue pool, weakening sales, factory absorption, profit, and free cash flow.
当前：FY2026 Taiwan-attributed revenue was $3.64 billion.
触发警报：A verified regional order, shipment, or collection disruption in any reported quarter.
| Unproven product-level competitive protection | medium | Medium term | Treat broad platform relevance as conditional until product-share, displacement, or pricing evidence becomes available. |
Under the moderate discount rate, US$49.10 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$56.49 from the long-term value, totaling US$106.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Greater dependence would amplify order cuts, repricing, or internal substitution.7
Persistent limits would delay sales and raise inventory or supplier costs.4
| $23.73B |
| $25.39B |
| $26.40B |
| Operating income | $7.61B | $8.98B | $9.97B | $10.66B | $11.09B |
| NOPAT | $6.59B | $7.78B | $8.64B | $9.25B | $9.62B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $6.59B | $7.78B | $8.64B | $9.25B | $9.62B |
| Revenue growth | 33.4% | 18.0% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Operating margin | 42.0% | 42.0% | 42.0% | 42.0% | 42.0% |
| Tax rate | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 利润率 |
|---|
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | $242.5B | 32.0x | 17.9x | 40.3x | 87.5% | — |
| AMAT | Applied Materials Inc. | 24.6x | 11.7x | 35.3x | 41.1% | 33.7% | |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | 26.6x | 16.6x | 44.4x | 65.1% | 37.4% | |
| TER | Teradyne Inc. | 30.6x | 12.5x | 36.9x | 36.5% | 33.2% | |
| ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | 28.0x | 18.3x | 53.9% | 37.1% |
