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Upside could persist if FY2027 EPS reaches the upper analyst estimate range, product growth supports cost absorption, and elevated capital spending becomes productive capacity rather than permanent maintenance expense.
FY2027 consolidated revenue growth falls below 10%.
Sell. At the $1,149.36 report-date price, the shares stand above $836.00 Fair value and $1,051.71 Potential value.3
The main risk is a product-led growth slowdown. FY2027 consolidated revenue growth below 10% would weaken sales, cost absorption, earnings, cash generation, and the valuation premium.
The clearest upside is stronger product growth paired with improving cash generation. That would show elevated capital spending is building productive capacity rather than a permanent cash burden.35
The demand-led upswing continues if post-event annual revenue and EPS estimates are met and product growth keeps supporting cost absorption.1
Sell because strong near-term growth does not offset a report-date price above Potential value.3
The demand-led upswing continues if post-event annual revenue and EPS estimates are met and product growth keeps supporting cost absorption.1
Sell because strong near-term growth does not offset a report-date price above Potential value.3
Eli Lilly and Company sells most of its products worldwide. Eli Lilly and Company adapts its marketing methods and product emphasis in various countries to meet local customer needs and comply with local regulations. Eli Lilly and Company operates as a single operating segment engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide.
A global research and development organization and a supply chain organization are responsible for the discovery, development, manufacturing, and supply of its products. Its commercial organizations market, distribute, and sell the products.
The harshest coherent path combines slower product growth, persistent capital needs, and a lower earnings valuation. Sales, margins, cash, and investor willingness to pay would weaken together.
If FY2027 consolidated revenue growth falls below 10%, weaker product demand reduces cost absorption, earnings, cash generation, and premium duration.
If CapEx-to-D&A remains above 4x through FY2030, recurring investment consumes operating gains and prevents the expected improvement in cash generation.
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
A sustained growth miss shrinks the revenue base, weakens cost absorption, lowers earnings, and shortens the period investors may reward premium growth.
当前：FY2027 revenue estimate: $101.78 billion as of 2026-09-08.
触发警报：Below 10% year over year in FY2027.
Rapid growth and high profitability do not by themselves establish switching costs, network effects, cost advantages, or efficient scale. Product dependence and limited visibility beyond FY2027 restrict the durability case.
Any durable advantage remains conditional on sustained product growth and productive use of elevated capital spending.
FY2025 operating income was $29.70 billion on $65.18 billion of revenue, but these outcomes do not prove a lasting structural advantage.3
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($836.00). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $23.3B after modeled reinvestment of $6.2B, with terminal value at 83.8% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base path supports Fair value, but the report-date price remains above that estimate.3
A beat helps only if product growth, margins, and cash improve together.
Meeting the near-term path does not extend visibility beyond FY2027.
A product-led miss would weaken sales, cost absorption, earnings, and cash.
Reported profit exceeded cash generated from operations in FY2025. Stronger cash follow-through would make the earnings path more durable.3
Slower growth lowers the earnings base.1
Capital expenditure was $7.39 billion, $8.40 billion, and $7.84 billion in FY2023-FY2025. Lower reinvestment would release more operating cash; continued intensity would reduce shareholder cash value.3
FY2025 debt was $42.50 billion against $7.16 billion of cash. This does not define the bear case, but it leaves less flexibility if growth and cash generation disappoint together.
FY2025 operating income was $29.70 billion on $65.18 billion of revenue. That is a strong profit snapshot, but it does not establish a return-on-invested-capital trend.
WACC was 7.6585% on 2026-09-08; the comparison with a dated ROIC series remains unresolved.
FY2025 free cash flow was $8.97 billion after $7.84 billion of capital expenditure.
Cash generation improved despite heavy spending, but lasting value still depends on the build becoming less capital intensive.
| 营业收入 | US$65,179,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$10,564,000,000 |
| 毛利 | US$54,615,000,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$24,919,000,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$29,696,000,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$9,057,700,000 |
| 净利润 | US$20,638,300,000 |
| 总资产 | US$112,476,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$7,163,000,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$55,629,000,000 |
| 总负债 | US$85,941,000,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$35,228,000,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$26,535,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$20,638,300,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$23,261,300,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$1,997,000,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$626,000,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$16,813,000,000 |
| 经营现金流出 | US$6,448,300,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$20,453,000,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$3,268,000,000 |
| 汇率影响 | US$372,000,000 |
| 投资现金流出 | US$10,972,000,000 |
| 资本支出 | US$7,841,000,000 |
| 其他投资活动 | US$3,131,000,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$2,213,000,000 |
| 净债务发行 | US$8,051,000,000 |
| 股份回购 | US$4,108,000,000 |
| 已付股息 | US$5,384,000,000 |
| 其他融资活动 | US$772,000,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$7,163,000,000 |
| 投资现金流 | -US$10,972,000,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$2,213,000,000 |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-02-12 · SEC EDGAR
| 按业务类别划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | US$609.6亿 | 93.5% | 49.6% |
| Collaborationand Other Revenue | US$42.2亿 | 6.5% | -1.7% |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-02-12 · SEC EDGAR
| 按地区划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US$434.8亿 | 66.7% | 43.1% |
| Europe | US$115.6亿 | 17.7% | 67% |
| Rest Of World | US$60.6亿 | 9.3% | 41.8% |
| Japan | US$21.3亿 | 3.3% | 17.5% |
| China | US$19.5亿 | 3% | 17.5% |
2026-09-08分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | US$212.2亿 | US$50.6亿 | US$27.4亿 | US$48.5亿 | US$37.6亿 | US$10.9亿 | US$15亿 | US$2.6亿 | — | US$21.6亿 | — | -US$31.4亿 | -US$5.6亿 | — | US$45.8亿 | US$60.4亿 | US$103.1亿 | 18.2% | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-31 | US$199.7亿 | US$41亿 | -US$2亿 | US$56.2亿 | US$34.5亿 | US$21.6亿 | US$15.7亿 | US$2.8亿 | — | US$21.9亿 | — | -US$37.8亿 | US$1.4亿 | US$45.8亿 | US$65.4亿 | US$80.3亿 | US$136.5亿 | 21.3% | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-31 | US$214.9亿 | US$55.3亿 | US$32.3亿 | US$55.2亿 | US$25.1亿 | US$30.2亿 | US$16.1亿 | US$2.8亿 | — | US$23.1亿 | — | US$19.1亿 | -US$59亿 | US$65.4亿 | US$73.2亿 | US$74.1亿 | US$127.4亿 | 28.0% | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-31 | US$223.2亿 | US$69亿 | US$83.2亿 | US$48.4亿 | US$34.8亿 | US$13.5亿 | US$12.3亿 | US$3.1亿 | — | US$24.1亿 | — | -US$80.8亿 | -US$23.2亿 | US$73.2亿 | US$23.4亿 | US$24.4亿 | US$158亿 | 26.9% | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-31 | US$245.4亿 | US$89.1亿 | US$61.9亿 | US$65亿 | US$44.7亿 | US$20.3亿 | US$13.2亿 | US$3.1亿 | — | US$26.9亿 | — | -US$22.6亿 | -US$31.4亿 | US$23.4亿 | US$36.6亿 | US$36.8亿 | US$166亿 | 29.4% | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | US$283.2亿 | US$80.4亿 | US$55.8亿 | US$72.6亿 | US$53.9亿 | US$18.7亿 | US$15.5亿 | US$3.4亿 | — | US$30.9亿 | — | -US$28.7亿 | -US$41.3亿 | US$36.6亿 | US$38.2亿 | US$39.1亿 | US$168.8亿 | 28.0% | — | 4.4% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | US$285.4亿 | US$86.6亿 | US$62.4亿 | US$70.8亿 | US$46亿 | US$24.8亿 | US$15.2亿 | US$3.7亿 | US$15亿 | US$35.4亿 | -US$6200万 | -US$37.6亿 | -US$54.1亿 | US$38.2亿 | US$20.7亿 | US$22.1亿 | US$162.4亿 | 30.3% | — | 6.8% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | US$341.2亿 | US$85.7亿 | US$52.4亿 | US$42.4亿 | -US$31.5亿 | US$73.9亿 | US$15.3亿 | US$6.3亿 | US$7.5亿 | US$40.7亿 | US$86.5亿 | -US$71.5亿 | US$35亿 | US$20.7亿 | US$28.2亿 | US$29.3亿 | US$252.3亿 | 31.6% | — | 6.7% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | US$450.4亿 | US$152.3亿 | US$105.9亿 | US$88.2亿 | US$4.1亿 | US$84亿 | US$17.7亿 | US$6.5亿 | US$25亿 | US$46.8亿 | US$89亿 | -US$93亿 | US$12.3亿 | US$28.2亿 | US$32.7亿 | US$34.2亿 | US$336.4亿 | 38.9% | — | 7.8% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | US$651.8亿 | US$279.4亿 | US$206.4亿 | US$168.1亿 | US$89.7亿 | US$78.4亿 | US$20亿 | US$6.3亿 | US$41.1亿 | US$53.8亿 | US$80.5亿 | -US$109.7亿 | -US$22.1亿 | US$32.7亿 | US$71.6亿 | US$72.7亿 | US$425亿 | 45.6% | — | 7.7% | — |
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) trades at 24.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 25.7x compares with a peer median of 16.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie Inc., Merck & Co. Inc. and Amgen Inc., as of 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-08.
FY2023-FY2025 capital expenditure remained elevated, while industry benchmarks show 1.1% CapEx-to-revenue and 0.8x CapEx-to-depreciation.3
The demand-led upswing continues if post-event annual revenue and EPS estimates are met and product growth keeps supporting cost absorption.
The cycle weakens if product growth approaches the slower comparable-company range, reducing sales momentum and the valuation premium.
FY2025 revenue was $43.48 billion in the United States, $11.56 billion in Europe, and $6.06 billion in Rest of World. This provides diversity without supporting a separate regional premium.5
No new allocation; reduce an existing position under the Sell rating because the report-date price exceeds Potential value.. The report-date price is above Potential value, while growth duration and capital normalization remain conditional.3
Do not let rising near-term estimates override the valuation gap. Require product growth, margin retention, and improving cash generation before reconsidering the Sell view.
The report-date price exceeds Potential value despite unresolved growth-duration and reinvestment risks.3
Reduce exposure while valuation remains above the house range; stronger estimates do not yet prove durability beyond FY2027.1
Near-term growth is strong, but the price already requires sustained premium economics and successful capital normalization.13
Sell because the $1,149.36 report-date price stands above $836.00 Fair value and $1,051.71 Potential value.3
The operating outlook remains strong through FY2027, but later growth, product dependence, and capital normalization do not provide enough protection at the report-date valuation.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
If growth converges toward mature peers and the terminal P/E falls below 20x, investors pay less for each future earnings dollar.
Broad product weakness has little offset from other revenue, so slower demand or pricing would reduce sales, margins, earnings, and cash.
当前：$60.96 billion of product revenue in FY2025.
触发警报：Below 10% year over year in FY2027.
Persistently heavy investment would absorb operating gains, leaving less cash for shareholders even if reported earnings continue to meet the forecast.
当前：$7.84 billion of capital expenditure in FY2025.
触发警报：CapEx-to-D&A above 4x through FY2030.
Growth convergence would make the valuation premium harder to defend, so investors could pay less for each dollar of future earnings.
当前：25x terminal P/E assumption as of 2026-09-08.
触发警报：Below 20x within 60 months.
A larger United States share would leave less revenue spread across Europe and Rest of World, increasing exposure to one region's demand and pricing.
当前：$43.48 billion of United States revenue in FY2025.
触发警报：At least 75% in any full fiscal year.
Limitation: Terminal value is 68.9% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Under the moderate discount rate, US$307 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$582 from the long-term value, totaling US$889.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 83.8% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Upside persists only if stronger growth also improves margins and cash without creating a permanent maintenance burden.
Product weakness has limited offset.5
Persistent spending leaves less shareholder cash.
Margin retention shows whether growth absorbs costs.3
Cash must follow reported profit to support value.3
| $111.37B |
| $118.05B |
| $122.77B |
| Revenue growth | 35.3% | 15.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% |
| Operating margin | 41.2% | 41.9% | 42.6% | 43.3% | 44.0% |
| Operating income | $36.30B | $42.62B | $47.43B | $51.11B | $54.02B |
| Tax rate | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| NOPAT | $29.45B | $34.57B | $38.47B | $41.45B | $43.81B |
| Reinvestment | $6.15B | $5.00B | $3.09B | $668.74M | $3.77B |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 20.9% | 14.5% | 8.0% | 1.6% | 8.6% |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.70B | $3.12B | $3.41B | $3.62B | $3.76B |
| Free cash flow to firm | $23.29B | $29.57B | $35.37B | $40.78B | $40.05B |
| Terminal growth | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Diluted shares | 897.31M | 895.33M | 893.36M | 891.38M | 889.42M |
| EPS | $35.98 | $47.26 | $47.43 | $45.72 | $42.79 |
| Net margin | 36.6% | 41.6% | 38.0% | 34.5% | 31.0% |
| Implied net income | $32.29B | $42.31B | $42.37B | $40.75B | $38.06B |
| 利润率 |
|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | $1.02T | 24.6x | 12.9x | 25.7x | 102.3% | — |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | 22.4x | 6.8x | 19.8x | 25.7% | 29.2% | |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | 15.8x | 7.0x | 16.8x | 62.2% | 40.0% | |
| MRK | Merck & Co. Inc. | 15.7x | 5.6x | 14.5x | 7.0% | -0.2% | |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | 17.9x | 6.2x | 16.2x | 91.5% | 35.5% |
| CapEx-to-D&A | Above 4x through FY2030. | Exit because recurring investment would keep absorbing operating gains. |
