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Upside requires the dated FY2027-FY2028 analyst forecasts to be delivered, followed by measurable support growth and sustained margins.
FY2027 consolidated revenue below $32.45 billion.
Sell. The $307.65 report-date price exceeds Fair value of $160.48 and Potential value of $198.57.3
The main risk is an FY2027 revenue miss. Fewer system sales would spread fixed research and overhead across less revenue, reducing margins and cash generation.
The clearest upside is delivery of stronger analyst forecasts through FY2028. The $8.35 billion FY2026 support business can cushion systems volatility, but it does not prove later persistence.1
Management identified installed tools and established road maps as obstacles facing competitors on 2026-07-29.5
Management linked its global manufacturing and supply footprint to serving accelerated demand on 2026-07-29.5
Dated analyst forecasts support a sharp FY2027 rebound followed by further FY2028 growth. Continued systems demand would spread fixed research and overhead across more sales.1
Sell because the report-date price stands well above both Fair value and Potential value.
Warranty: Typically, the sale of semiconductor capital equipment includes providing parts and service warranties to customers as part of the overall price of the system. The Company provides standard warranties for its systems. The Company records a provision for estimated warranty expenses to cost of sales for each system when it recognizes revenue. The Company provides standard warranties on its systems. The liability amount is based on actual historical warranty spending activity by type of system, customer, and geographic region, modified for any known differences such as the impact of system reliability improvements.
As of June 28, 2026, warranty reserves totaling $19.7 million were reported in Other long-term liabilities, and the remainder were included in Accrued expenses and other current liabilities in the Company’s Consolidated Balance Sheets. The table below reconciles the Company's reportable segment to income before income taxes:
Customer deferrals, weaker China-attributed sales and a lower earnings multiple can reinforce one another, reducing systems volume, margins, cash generation and value per share.
Revenue, margins and cash generation weaken together. A lower forward earnings multiple would compound the operating decline.
FY2028 GAAP operating margin below 30.5% would show that digestion, pricing or lower utilization has reversed expected margin expansion.
Annual China-attributed revenue below $5.9 billion would remove a major sales block without demonstrated replacement elsewhere.
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
A miss would cut system volume, spread fixed research and overhead across fewer sales, and reduce margins, cash generation, and valuation.
当前：Analyst forecast mean of $34.80 billion for FY2027, dated 2026-09-08.
触发警报：Below $32.45 billion within 12 months.
Lam’s installed base and qualified road maps create switching friction, although the disclosed evidence does not quantify requalification costs.
The advantage remains conditional on winning future process positions. Management presents new systems as opportunities to demonstrate technical improvement, not proof of sustained share gains.
FY2026 operating income shows that Lam monetizes its position, but profitability is an outcome rather than a moat source.3
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($160.48). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $10.4B after modeled reinvestment of $590.5M, with terminal value at 40.8% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The rebound is delivered, but support growth and process wins do not justify extending peak growth indefinitely.
A beat strengthens near-term earnings but does not establish post-FY2028 duration or close the valuation gap.
Meeting near-term forecasts would preserve the rebound thesis without proving its duration.
A miss would weaken both the rebound and the earnings base supporting valuation.
FY2026 profit remained ahead of operating cash because working capital absorbed funds during the ramp.3
The main cash question is working-capital absorption, not debt survival. FY2026 cash exceeded debt, but inventory growth can still reduce cash available to owners.35
Diluted average shares declined through FY2024-FY2026, while FY2026 stock compensation was $386.4 million. This limits dilution but does not offset an overvalued entry price.
Reported profitability is strong, but operating margin alone is not treated as a substitute for return on invested capital.
No spread is inferred; the enterprise-value hurdle remains 11.153% as of 2026-09-08.
Management expected inventory to keep growing with revenue while seeking efficiency.
A revenue ramp can lift profit while inventory temporarily absorbs cash.
The industry benchmark placed capital spending at 4.1% of revenue.
Cash value depends on spending intensity easing as the expansion matures.
| 营业收入 | US$23,232,690,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$11,507,382,000 |
| 毛利 | US$11,725,308,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$3,525,513,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$8,199,795,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$934,399,000 |
| 净利润 | US$7,265,396,000 |
| 总资产 | US$23,529,743,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$5,579,171,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$15,610,705,000 |
| 总负债 | US$11,058,822,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$5,937,249,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$12,470,921,000 |
| 净利润 | US$7,265,396,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$8,093,310,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$441,533,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$386,381,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$5,857,657,000 |
| 经营现金流出 | US$2,235,653,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$12,265,313,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$6,407,656,000 |
| 投资现金流出 | US$922,152,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$5,717,787,000 |
| 汇率影响 | US$27,431,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$5,579,171,000 |
| 投资现金流 | -US$922,152,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$5,717,787,000 |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-08-07 · SEC EDGAR
| 按业务类别划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| System | US$148.9亿 | 64.1% | 29.5% |
| Customer Supportand Other | US$83.5亿 | 35.9% | 20.2% |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-08-07 · SEC EDGAR
| 按地区划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | US$78.6亿 | 33.8% | 26.7% |
| Taiwan | US$52.2亿 | 22.5% | 51.6% |
| South Korea | US$45.1亿 | 19.4% | 9.1% |
| Japan | US$21.7亿 | 9.3% | 15.4% |
| United States | US$15.3亿 | 6.6% | 11% |
| South East Asia | US$12.5亿 | 5.4% | 48.8% |
| Europe | US$7亿 | 3% | 24.2% |
2026-09-08分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-30 | US$80.1亿 | US$22.4亿 | US$17亿 | US$20.3亿 | US$18.7亿 | US$1.6亿 | US$3.1亿 | US$1.5亿 | — | US$2.4亿 | — | -US$20.6亿 | -US$26.3亿 | — | US$23.8亿 | US$60.4亿 | US$26.9亿 | 23.7% | — | — | — |
| 2018-06-30 | US$110.8亿 | US$35.8亿 | US$23.8亿 | US$26.6亿 | US$23.8亿 | US$2.7亿 | US$3.3亿 | US$1.7亿 | — | US$3.1亿 | — | US$27.5亿 | -US$32.7亿 | US$23.8亿 | US$45.1亿 | US$49.5亿 | US$24.2亿 | 29.0% | — | — | — |
| 2019-06-30 | US$96.5亿 | US$28.7亿 | US$21.9亿 | US$31.8亿 | US$28.7亿 | US$3亿 | US$3.1亿 | US$1.9亿 | — | US$6.8亿 | — | -US$16.4亿 | -US$23.9亿 | US$45.1亿 | US$36.6亿 | US$54.3亿 | US$44.9亿 | 25.5% | — | — | — |
| 2020-06-30 | US$100.4亿 | US$30.2亿 | US$22.5亿 | US$21.3亿 | US$19.2亿 | US$2亿 | US$2.7亿 | US$1.9亿 | — | US$6.6亿 | — | -US$2.4亿 | -US$6.2亿 | US$36.6亿 | US$49.2亿 | US$67.1亿 | US$58.1亿 | 26.6% | — | — | — |
| 2021-06-30 | US$146.3亿 | US$48.9亿 | US$39.1亿 | US$35.9亿 | US$32.4亿 | US$3.5亿 | US$3.1亿 | US$2.2亿 | — | US$7.3亿 | — | US$7327.1万 | -US$41.7亿 | US$49.2亿 | US$44.2亿 | US$57.3亿 | US$50亿 | 30.6% | — | 7.6% | — |
| 2022-06-30 | US$172.3亿 | US$57.1亿 | US$46.1亿 | US$31亿 | US$25.5亿 | US$5.5亿 | US$3.3亿 | US$2.6亿 | US$38.7亿 | US$8.2亿 | -US$1188.9万 | US$6.1亿 | -US$45.8亿 | US$46.7亿 | US$35.2亿 | US$36.6亿 | US$50.1亿 | 31.2% | — | 8.9% | — |
| 2023-06-30 | US$174.3亿 | US$56.4亿 | US$45.1亿 | US$51.8亿 | US$46.8亿 | US$5亿 | US$3.4亿 | US$2.9亿 | US$20.2亿 | US$9.1亿 | -US$2320.6万 | -US$5.3亿 | -US$28.3亿 | US$37.7亿 | US$53.4亿 | US$53.7亿 | US$50.1亿 | 29.7% | — | 10.5% | — |
| 2024-06-30 | US$149.1亿 | US$49.1亿 | US$38.3亿 | US$46.5亿 | US$42.6亿 | US$4亿 | US$3.6亿 | US$2.9亿 | US$28.4亿 | US$10.2亿 | -US$2.6亿 | -US$3.7亿 | -US$40亿 | US$55.9亿 | US$58.5亿 | US$58.5亿 | US$49.8亿 | 28.6% | — | 11.4% | — |
| 2025-06-30 | US$184.4亿 | US$63.4亿 | US$53.6亿 | US$61.7亿 | US$54.1亿 | US$7.6亿 | US$3.9亿 | US$3.4亿 | US$34.2亿 | US$11.5亿 | -US$5.1亿 | -US$7.1亿 | -US$49.4亿 | US$58.5亿 | US$63.9亿 | US$63.9亿 | US$47.6亿 | 32.0% | — | 11.3% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | US$232.3亿 | US$87亿 | US$72.7亿 | US$58.6亿 | US$48.9亿 | US$9.7亿 | US$4.4亿 | US$3.9亿 | US$38.5亿 | US$12.7亿 | -US$7.6亿 | -US$9.2亿 | -US$57.2亿 | US$64.1亿 | US$55.8亿 | US$55.8亿 | US$41.2亿 | 35.3% | — | — | — |
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) trades at 31.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 27.9x. Its EV/EBITDA of 44.4x compares with a peer median of 36.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Applied Materials Inc., KLA Corporation, Teradyne Inc. and ASML Holding N.V., as of 2026-09-02 to 2026-09-08.
Industry capital spending equalled 4.1% of revenue and twice depreciation in the 2026-09-01 benchmark, retrieved that day.
Dated analyst forecasts support a sharp FY2027 rebound followed by further FY2028 growth. Continued systems demand would spread fixed research and overhead across more sales.
Systems produced $14.89 billion in FY2026 revenue. A post-build pause would therefore spread fixed research and overhead across fewer system sales, reducing margins and cash generation.
Lam combines cyclical system sales with an $8.35 billion FY2026 support business that can cushion, but not eliminate, equipment-cycle volatility.6
No new allocation.. The report-date price exceeds Potential value, while dated operating visibility ends after FY2028.13
Keep exposure falling, not rising, while the report-date price exceeds Potential value and operational triggers remain unresolved.
The report-date price is above Potential value, so strong near-term forecasts do not provide an adequate entry.3
Reduce or exit rather than add; the rating is Sell and the price exceeds the accepted range.
The dividend does not offset the valuation gap or equipment-cycle risk.
Fair value is $160.48 and Potential value is $198.57, both below the $307.65 report-date price.3
Near-term analyst forecasts have strengthened, but valuation assumes more duration than the dated evidence establishes.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A forward P/E below 24.6391 times would make investors pay less for unchanged future earnings, directly reducing share value.
The breach would show that weaker factory use or pricing has overwhelmed expected operating leverage, lowering profit and cash from each sale.
当前：Approximately 35.3% for FY2026, based on reported operating income and revenue.
触发警报：Below 30.5% in FY2028.
A breach would remove substantial sales and weaken fixed-cost coverage; attribution changes need separate review before assigning a domestic-substitution cause.
当前：$7.86 billion in FY2026.
触发警报：Below $5.9 billion within 12 months.
Investors would be paying less for each dollar of future earnings, allowing the share price to fall even if forecasts remain unchanged.
当前：31.65 times on 2026-09-08.
触发警报：Below 24.6391 times within 12 months.
Inventory and capacity spending would be absorbing more cash from the earnings rebound, weakening cash-based value despite continued reported profit growth.
当前：$0.81 of operating cash for each $1.00 of FY2026 reported profit.
触发警报：Below $0.70 within 12 months.
Under the moderate discount rate, US$78.43 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$79.37 from the long-term value, totaling US$158.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
More installed tools would support later service demand, while higher system volume would spread fixed costs across more sales. The case fades if those validation measures weaken.
Growth would validate a larger installed-base cushion.6
Persistent intensity would leave less cash for owners.3
Inventory can absorb cash despite higher reported profit.5
| FY2036 |
|---|
| Revenue | $34.80B | $40.70B | $43.55B | $45.73B | $47.56B | $49.39B | $51.23B | $53.06B | $54.87B | $56.68B |
| Revenue growth | 49.8% | 17.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| Operating margin | 35.8% | 35.9% | 36.1% | 36.3% | 36.5% | 36.5% | 36.5% | 36.5% | 36.5% | 36.5% |
| Operating income | $12.44B | $14.63B | $15.73B | $16.61B | $17.36B | $18.03B | $18.70B | $19.37B | $20.03B | $20.69B |
| Tax rate | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| NOPAT | $11.02B | $12.95B | $13.93B | $14.70B | $15.37B | $15.96B | $16.55B | $17.15B | $17.73B | $18.32B |
| Reinvestment | $590.49M | $459.17M | $241.10M | $329.93M | $423.79M | $522.07M | $626.44M | $736.82M | $853.11M | $975.16M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% |
| Depreciation and amortization | $661.42M | $773.53M | $827.67M | $869.06M | $903.82M | $938.68M | $973.55M | $1.01B | $1.04B | $1.08B |
| Free cash flow to firm | $10.43B | $12.49B | $13.69B | $14.37B | $14.95B | $15.44B | $15.93B | $16.41B | $16.88B | $17.34B |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Diluted shares | 1.23B | 1.20B | 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.13B | 1.10B | 1.08B | 1.05B | 1.03B | 1.00B |
| EPS | $9.25 | $11.57 | $12.45 | $13.14 | $13.74 | $14.60 | $15.49 | $16.41 | $17.36 | $18.35 |
| Net margin | 32.8% | 34.3% | 33.7% | 33.1% | 32.5% | 32.5% | 32.5% | 32.5% | 32.5% | 32.5% |
| Implied net income | $11.40B | $13.94B | $14.66B | $15.13B | $15.46B | $16.05B | $16.65B | $17.24B | $17.83B | $18.42B |
| 利润率 |
|---|
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | $385.0B | 31.7x | 16.6x | 44.4x | 65.1% | — |
| AMAT | Applied Materials Inc. | 24.6x | 11.7x | 35.3x | 41.1% | 33.7% | |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 27.7x | 17.9x | 40.3x | 87.5% | 42.5% | |
| TER | Teradyne Inc. | 30.6x | 12.5x | 36.9x | 36.5% | 33.2% | |
| ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | 28.0x | 18.3x | 53.9% | 37.1% |
