Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)
NASDAQ: META · Real-Time Price · USD
$610
-7.15 (-1.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: META rated Strong Buy
META is rated Strong Buy at $616.81 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $796.57, implying +29.14% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$797 / share
$586 – $1006
Upside to FV
+29.1%
from $610
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
The $796 composite successfully isolates the core ad moat from the near-term capex distortion.
Biggest risk
AI Capex Failure
AI Capex Failure: Massive AI infrastructure capex fails to generate commensurate revenue returns, permanently depressing ROIC.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
META is rated Strong Buy at $616.81 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $796.57, implying +29.14% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $1.57T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 215B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 70.6B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $27.5 | |
| Shares out | 2.5B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 22.2x | |
| P/E (forward) | 17.0x | |
| Dividend | $2.10 (0.34%) | |
| Volume | 13,856,968 | |
| Beta | 1.24 | |
| Price target | $836 | +37.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Meta Platforms, Inc.META
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 215B
- Net income (ttm)
- 70.6B
- EPS (ttm)
- $27.5
- P/E (trailing)
- 22.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.0x
- Market cap
- $1.57T
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $116.61B | $134.90B | $164.50B | $200.97B | +14.6% |
| Gross profit | — | $91.36B | $108.94B | $134.34B | $164.79B | +15.9% |
| Operating income | — | $28.94B | $46.75B | $69.38B | $83.28B | +30.2% |
| Net income | — | $23.20B | $39.10B | $62.36B | $60.46B | +27.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $13.77 | $8.59 | $14.87 | $23.86 | — | +14.7% |
| EBITDA | — | $37.69B | $59.05B | $86.88B | $105.71B | +29.4% |
| R&D | — | $35.34B | $38.48B | $43.87B | $57.37B | +12.9% |
| SG&A | — | $27.08B | $23.71B | $21.09B | $24.14B | -2.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $586
- Fair value (mid)
- $797
- Fair value (high)
- $1006
- Current price
- $610
- Upside to mid
- +29.1%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $872 | 40% |
| Forward earnings | $991 | 35% |
| FCFF DCF | $525 | 12% |
| Discounted earnings | $353 | 8% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $197 | 5% |
| Owner earnings | $858 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$836
+37.2%
In the news
Latest news · META
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.57T
- P/E (trailing)
- 22.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.0x
- P/S
- 7.2x
- P/B
- 6.3x
- PEG
- 0.89
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 81.9%
- Operating margin
- 41.2%
- ROE
- 32.9%
- ROA
- 16.4%
- ROIC
- 29.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.36
- Current ratio
- 2.35
- Quick ratio
- 2.11
Trading
- Beta
- 1.24
- Volume
- 13,856,968
- Dividend yield
- 0.3%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +29.1% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$1,006.45
+63.2% from spot
Open-source models position Meta as the foundational layer of the next computing era, driving aggressive multiple expansion and terminal growth.
- AI ad targeting creates massive ROAS improvements.
- WhatsApp monetization scales significantly.
Base55%
Price target
$796.57
+29.1% from spot
Meta maintains dominant ad market share, seamlessly funding its AI transformation while supporting consistent capital returns and 3% terminal growth.
- Ad revenue grows near 20%.
- Capex normalizes long-term to 15% of revenue.
- Terminal P/E multiple settles at 22x.
Bear20%
Price target
$585.59
-5.1% from spot
Core engagement erodes to competitors, failing to support the immense capex burden and forcing a dramatic multiple compression.
- AI infrastructure yields poor returns.
- Reality Labs remains a permanent capital sink.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $797.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 40% | $872 | +43.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 35% | $991 | +62.5% | |
| FCFF DCF | 12% | $525 | -13.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 8% | $353 | -42.2% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $197 | -67.7% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $858 | +40.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $797 | +29.1% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.1% | $980 | $1044 | $1118 | $1203 | $1302 |
| 11.1% | $872 | $923 | $980 | $1044 | $1118 |
| 12.1% | $785 | $826 | $872 | $923 | $980 |
| 13.1% | $714 | $748 | $785 | $826 | $872 |
| 14.1% | $655 | $684 | $714 | $748 | $785 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation3.0
Management7.7
Balance Sheet7.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency8.5
Weighted composite
7.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.7 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 8.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core structural allocation for large-cap growth.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$610
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim above $950 or exit if capex-to-revenue exceeds 40% without stabilizing yield.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E17
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE32.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC29.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All META indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
277
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 277 of 277 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on META
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this META report
What is the current META stock rating?
Meta Platforms, Inc. is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full META analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/META/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for META?
The latest report frames META around $586 to $1006. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the META page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyMETA · Fair value $797+29.1% · Confidence 88/100