Molina Healthcare Inc. (MOH)

Our Base scenario projects a target value of $153.64, representing an implied return of -26.6% from $209.19 with an assigned probability of 55.0%. This scenario underwrites a measured post-trough recovery where state Medicaid rate adjustments gradually align with medical cost trends, allowing operating margins to normalize from FY2026 trough levels toward historical averages by FY2030. Discontinued product drags roll off into FY2027 as planned, and Medicare duals expansion offsets underlying Medicaid enrollment attrition. The scenario would be disconfirmed if Medicaid medical care ratios fail to improve in upcoming fiscal quarters or if individual exchange losses persist, which would become visible through state rate filings and quarterly statutory disclosures.

• Operating margins normalize progressively from FY2026 trough toward historical sector levels by FY2030
• Discontinued Medicare Advantage product losses terminate completely following FY2026
• Individual exchange membership retrenches into core states, eliminating segment underwriting losses
• State Medicaid capitation rate increases gradually catch up with medical cost inflation