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Upside persists if FY2028 revenue reaches about USD 467.33 billion, diluted earnings reach USD 23.57 per share, and free cash flow improves.
Annual free cash flow remains below USD 67 billion for two consecutive years.
Our fair-value estimate for MSFT is $457.39 per share, with Potential value of $570.41 per share.
MSFT is rated Reduce at the report-date price of $513.53 versus our fair value of $457.39, implying -10.93% potential return.3
Our fair value combines these valuation methods: Multi Stage Moat Fade 30% at $459.09; Discounted Earnings 25% at $448.13; Owner Earnings 12% at $528.12; Forward Earnings 13% at $473.05; Peg Adjusted Peer 0% at $485.02; 20% at $414.81.
Structural mechanism: Microsoft's enterprise offering is integrated into communication, governance, security, IT, finance, and operating workflows. Replacement can therefore require coordinated migration, control redesign, retraining, and administrative reconfiguration across multiple functions.. Current durability indicator: indicator rather than structural proof: FY2026 operating income remained substantial relative to revenue, and the available history shows sustained profitability.46
Avoid new capital at USD 513.53; Fair value of USD 457.39 is 10.93% below that price.3
Upside scenario assumption: the favorable cycle requires cloud and AI capacity to be absorbed quickly. FY2028 revenue of USD 467.33 billion and diluted earnings of USD 23.57 per share are the dated persistence tests; both references were retrieved 2026-08-30.1
MSFT is rated Reduce at the report-date price of $513.53 versus our fair value of $457.39, implying -10.93% potential return.3
FY2026 free cash flow was USD 66.99 billion despite USD 182.94 billion of operating cash flow. Capital spending of USD 115.95 billion is the central pressure point.
The bear case moves toward the lower forecast range described in this dedicated section.
Free cash flow stays below USD 67 billion for two years.
Annual revenue growth falls below 10%.
Forward net margin falls below 32.5%.
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
Continued weak free cash flow would show infrastructure spending consuming cash faster than new capacity generates it, lowering distributable cash.
当前：FY2026: USD 66.99 billion; period ended 2026-06-30, retrieved 2026-08-30.
触发警报：Below USD 67 billion for two consecutive years.
Structural mechanism: Microsoft's enterprise offering is integrated into communication, governance, security, IT, finance, and operating workflows. Replacement can therefore require coordinated migration, control redesign, retraining, and administrative reconfiguration across multiple functions.. Current durability indicator: indicator rather than structural proof: FY2026 operating income remained substantial relative to revenue, and the available history shows sustained profitability.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted , discount each year's earnings at , then add a Gordon-growth .
Unavailable
The highlighted base cell exactly reruns each positively weighted calculated model at its published base assumptions and sums the weighted contributions ($457.39).
The cash-flow model remains positive in the first forecast year. The result is most sensitive to investment needs, margins, discount rates, and the value after the forecast period.
The bull case moves toward the upper forecast range and tests the report's Potential value.
A beat matters only if it raises normalized outer-year cash generation, not just near-term multiple enthusiasm. Keep position sizing tied to valuation after the guidance reset.
An in-line print confirms the base case but does not by itself justify raising exposure. The right move is to keep the thesis on watch and demand either better margin of safety or clearer acceleration.
A miss is thesis-relevant when it weakens the moat, margin, or cash-flow assumptions behind the fair-value range. Treat that as a model-reset event rather than a routine volatility event.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Shows whether infrastructure is producing cash.
Tests whether demand absorbs added capacity.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| 营业收入 | US$331,839,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$106,374,000,000 |
| 毛利 | US$225,465,000,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$70,228,000,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$155,237,000,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$21,488,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$133,749,000,000 |
| 总资产 | US$758,376,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$20,935,000,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$207,710,000,000 |
| 总负债 | US$315,989,000,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$168,825,000,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$442,387,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$133,749,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$184,688,000,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$38,534,000,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$12,405,000,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$182,935,000,000 |
| 经营现金流出 | US$1,753,000,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$213,177,000,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$30,242,000,000 |
| 投资现金流出 | US$139,500,000,000 |
| 资本支出 | US$115,948,000,000 |
| 其他投资活动 | US$23,552,000,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$52,546,000,000 |
| 股份回购 | US$22,271,000,000 |
| 已付股息 | US$26,445,000,000 |
| 净债务偿还 | US$3,000,000,000 |
| 其他融资活动 | US$830,000,000 |
| 汇率影响 | US$196,000,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$20,935,000,000 |
| 投资现金流 | -US$139,500,000,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$52,546,000,000 |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-07-29 · SEC EDGAR
| 按经营分部划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity And Business Processes | US$1400亿 | 42.2% | 15.9% |
| Intelligent Cloud | US$1377.9亿 | 41.5% | 29.7% |
| More Personal Computing | US$540.5亿 | 16.3% | -1.1% |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-07-29 · SEC EDGAR
| 按地区划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US$1707.9亿 | 51.5% | 18.2% |
| Non Us | US$1610.5亿 | 48.5% | 17.4% |
2026-08-30分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-30 | US$965.7亿 | US$409亿 | US$254.9亿 | US$395.1亿 | US$313.8亿 | US$81.3亿 | US$87.8亿 | US$32.7亿 | US$117.9亿 | US$118.5亿 | — | -US$467.8亿 | US$84.1亿 | — | US$76.6亿 | US$1329.8亿 | US$771亿 | 30.1% | — | 5.7% | — |
| 2018-06-30 | US$1103.6亿 | US$494.7亿 | US$165.7亿 | US$438.8亿 | US$322.5亿 | US$116.3亿 | US$102.6亿 | US$39.4亿 | US$107.2亿 | US$127亿 | — | -US$60.6亿 | -US$335.9亿 | US$76.6亿 | US$119.5亿 | US$1337.7亿 | US$762亿 | 31.8% | — | 6.2% | — |
| 2019-06-30 | US$1258.4亿 | US$580.6亿 | US$392.4亿 | US$521.9亿 | US$382.6亿 | US$139.3亿 | US$116.8亿 | US$46.5亿 | US$195.4亿 | US$138.1亿 | — | -US$157.7亿 | -US$368.9亿 | US$119.5亿 | US$113.6亿 | US$1338.2亿 | US$721.8亿 | 34.1% | — | 6.4% | — |
| 2020-06-30 | US$1430.2亿 | US$684.2亿 | US$442.8亿 | US$606.8亿 | US$452.3亿 | US$154.4亿 | US$128亿 | US$52.9亿 | US$229.7亿 | US$151.4亿 | — | -US$122.2亿 | -US$460.3亿 | US$113.6亿 | US$135.8亿 | US$1365.3亿 | US$633.3亿 | 37.0% | — | 4.4% | — |
| 2021-06-30 | US$1680.9亿 | US$851.3亿 | US$612.7亿 | US$767.4亿 | US$561.2亿 | US$206.2亿 | US$116.9亿 | US$61.2亿 | US$273.9亿 | US$165.2亿 | — | -US$275.8亿 | -US$484.9亿 | US$135.8亿 | US$142.2亿 | US$1303.3亿 | US$581.5亿 | 41.6% | — | 5.0% | — |
| 2022-06-30 | US$1982.7亿 | US$1002.4亿 | US$727.4亿 | US$890.4亿 | US$651.5亿 | US$238.9亿 | US$144.6亿 | US$75亿 | US$327亿 | US$181.4亿 | -US$90.2亿 | -US$303.1亿 | -US$588.8亿 | US$142.2亿 | US$139.3亿 | US$1047.6亿 | US$497.8亿 | 42.1% | — | 6.9% | — |
| 2023-06-30 | US$2119.2亿 | US$1051.4亿 | US$723.6亿 | US$875.8亿 | US$594.8亿 | US$281.1亿 | US$138.6亿 | US$96.1亿 | US$222.5亿 | US$198亿 | -US$27.5亿 | -US$226.8亿 | -US$439.4亿 | US$139.3亿 | US$347亿 | US$1112.6亿 | US$472.4亿 | 41.8% | — | 8.0% | — |
| 2024-06-30 | US$2451.2亿 | US$1330.1亿 | US$881.4亿 | US$1185.5亿 | US$740.7亿 | US$444.8亿 | US$222.9亿 | US$107.3亿 | US$172.5亿 | US$217.7亿 | US$5.8亿 | -US$969.7亿 | -US$377.6亿 | US$347亿 | US$183.2亿 | US$755.4亿 | US$449.4亿 | 44.6% | — | 8.5% | — |
| 2025-06-30 | US$2817.2亿 | US$1601.7亿 | US$1018.3亿 | US$1361.6亿 | US$716.1亿 | US$645.5亿 | US$341.5亿 | US$119.7亿 | US$184.2亿 | US$240.8亿 | -US$89.6亿 | -US$726亿 | -US$517亿 | US$183.2亿 | US$302.4亿 | US$945.7亿 | US$431.5亿 | 45.6% | — | 9.3% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | US$3318.4亿 | US$2075.2亿 | US$1337.5亿 | US$1829.4亿 | US$669.9亿 | US$1159.5亿 | US$385.3亿 | US$124.1亿 | US$222.7亿 | US$264.5亿 | -US$30亿 | -US$1395亿 | -US$525.5亿 | US$302.4亿 | US$209.4亿 | US$768.4亿 | US$402.9亿 | 46.8% | — | 9.6% | — |
MSFT trades at 25.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 29.4x; EV/EBITDA of 19.9x against a peer median of 27.9x; 4 peers as of 2026-08-30.
An industry reference places capital spending above depreciation and records it as a material share of revenue. Its as-of and retrieval dates are not stated, so it is directional evidence. Capacity investment can support growth, but excess capacity would raise depreciation and operating costs before enough revenue arrives.
Upside scenario assumption: the favorable cycle requires cloud and AI capacity to be absorbed quickly. FY2028 revenue of USD 467.33 billion and diluted earnings of USD 23.57 per share are the dated persistence tests; both references were retrieved 2026-08-30.
The adverse cycle begins if annual revenue growth falls below 10% before new capacity is absorbed. Lower use would pressure margins and free cash flow while investors pay less for each earnings dollar.
Microsoft has strong operating cash generation, but its position now depends on converting infrastructure investment into higher free cash flow.56
Reduced exposure only; no new capital while the rating remains Reduce. Reduce exposure in stages; do not add while the rating remains Reduce.
Reassess or exit if the core thesis breaks.
The final Reduce view is anchored to the reconciled $457.39 fair-value midpoint and -10.9% upside/downside, with the debate centered on whether the moat and growth runway continue to justify the accepted model weights.
Avoid full exposure; reduce while annual free cash flow remains near the USD 67 billion risk threshold.
Cash backing and balance-sheet indicators do not offset the valuation gap or weak cash left after investment.
MSFT is rated Reduce at the report-date price of $513.53 versus our fair value of $457.39, implying -10.93% potential return.3
At $513.53, the stock is measured against the final $457.39 midpoint and -10.93% upside/downside, so new capital should respect the 25% report margin-of-safety discipline.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
The forward earnings multiple falls below 17 times.
A deeper revenue slowdown would show demand is not absorbing new capacity, reducing sales leverage and weakening future earnings expectations.
当前：First-year base path: 17.85%; valuation dated 2026-08-30.
触发警报：Below 10% within 12 months.
Lower earnings expectations would mean revenue is turning into less profit, reducing the earnings base investors capitalize into value per share.
当前：USD 23.57 per share; forward estimate reference as of and retrieved 2026-08-30.
触发警报：Below USD 20.93 per share for FY2028.
Costs would absorb too much revenue, so expected earnings growth would weaken even if sales remain strong over time.
当前：Expected endpoint: 37.5%; valuation dated 2026-08-30.
触发警报：Below 32.5% within 24 months.
A lower forward multiple means investors pay less for each dollar of future earnings, directly reducing value per share quickly.
当前：25.51 times; market data as of and retrieved 2026-08-30.
触发警报：Below 17 times within 6 months.
| Evidence that this structural moat driver no longer protects pricing power, customer retention, or excess returns. |
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Base case ties to the fair-value midpoint and assumes the base assumptions continue to hold.
Tests profit conversion.1
Shows whether deployment costs absorb revenue.
Shows what investors pay per future earnings dollar.
| 利润率 |
|---|
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | $3.81T | 25.5x | 11.5x | 19.9x | 34.0% | — |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | 13.8x | 6.5x | 18.9x | 53.4% | 36.2% | |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 33.5x | 10.0x | 27.9x | 148.8% | 32.6% | |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks Inc. | 90.4x | 28.6x | 4.8% | -2.5% | ||
| SNPS | Synopsys Inc. | 25.3x | 9.0x | 44.4x | 3.7% | 14.5% |
