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Broader formats could attract more engagement, while audience reach may raise the value of partner content.
The key trigger is FY2027 diluted EPS growth below 0% while revenue remains positive.
Reduce. The valuation leaves limited room for weaker earnings conversion or an earlier revenue slowdown.
The report was prepared at $78.25 on 2026-09-04. That price is above $63.88 Fair value and just below $79 Potential value.3
FY2027 diluted EPS could contract even if sales rise. That result would fail the earnings-conversion test because growth would not be reaching profit per share.1
Management described links between core series, exclusive creator content, and additional engagement formats on 2026-07-16.4
Management said a larger audience can improve partner-content relevance and monetization, which may attract additional supply.4
Healthy acquisition, retention, pricing, and advertising demand could support continued revenue growth, although that outlook comes from management commentary rather than a capacity indicator.4
Reduce because the report-date price stands above Fair value while earnings conversion and post-FY2027 growth duration remain contested.1
NETFLIX INC primarily derives revenues from monthly membership fees for services related to streaming content to its members. NETFLIX INC offers a variety of streaming membership plans, the price of which varies by country and the features of the plan.
The market for entertainment video is intensely competitive and subject to rapid change. NETFLIX INC also competes against entertainment video providers and content producers in obtaining content for its service, both for licensed content and for original content projects.
The harshest operating path combines an EPS decline, sub-27% margins, and an early revenue slowdown. Profit and cash would weaken together, leaving less room for debt reduction or repurchases.
Content and competitive spending absorb added revenue, while weaker cash limits repurchases. This path is confirmed by the earnings, growth, and margin gates in the dedicated downside review.
If FY2027 diluted EPS growth falls below 0% while revenue still grows, content and monetization costs would absorb incremental sales.1
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
If revenue still grows while diluted EPS falls, incremental sales are not reaching per-share profit. That would weaken the operating-leverage case and leave less earnings support for cash generation.
当前：The FY2027 estimate is $3.82 per diluted share, within a $3.48-$4.09 range, as of and retrieved on 2026-09-08.
触发警报：Below 0% annual growth in FY2027.
Netflix has a narrow moat built on content breadth and audience reach. Exclusive extensions can create more viewing occasions, while scale can make partner content more valuable.
The advantage remains conditional. The 8% two-year test is a thesis monitoring threshold, not an observed industry cutoff. A breach would shorten the assumed advantage and post-estimate growth path.
FY2025 free cash flow of $9.46 billion supports strong economics, but cash generation is an outcome rather than a moat source.5
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($63.88). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $11.5B after modeled capex of $447.3M, with terminal value at 54.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base path holds while revenue fades gradually and margins remain resilient. An early move to mature growth or a sustained margin breach would disconfirm it.1
That result would indicate added sales are reaching per-share earnings rather than being absorbed by content and monetization costs.
Tracking the dated estimates would not resolve whether growth persists after FY2027 or whether margins can remain resilient.
That pattern would match the thesis test for costs absorbing added sales or competition weakening both demand and operating leverage.
Reported operating cash flow and free cash flow were positive in FY2025, but content reinvestment still determines how much cash is distributable.56
FY2025 free cash flow was $9.46 billion, published and retrieved on 2026-08-30. The projection should not assume this requires no content or working-capital reinvestment.45
Repurchases can support per-share growth, but FY2025 debt exceeded cash. Debt reduction and content needs may therefore limit future share-count declines.
Operating income and free cash flow improved, but those outcomes are not treated as substitutes for a consistent multi-year return-on-capital measure.
No comparison is asserted. The 9.8126% WACC is used only as the enterprise valuation rate as of 2026-09-08.
FY2025 operating cash flow was $10.15 billion, available from the filing on 2026-01-23.
Positive cash offers flexibility, but content spending, debt reduction, and repurchases compete for the same funds. FY2025 debt above cash means all three cannot be assumed to receive funding together.
Diluted-average shares declined from 4.495 billion in FY2023 to 4.344 billion in FY2025.
Continued reductions could lift earnings per share, but they remain discretionary.
| 营业收入 | US$12,559,938,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$6,036,965,000,000 |
| 毛利 | US$6,522,973,000,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$2,330,363,000,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$4,192,610,000,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$791,196,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$3,401,414,000,000 |
| 总资产 | US$55,596,993,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$9,033,681,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$13,020,191,000 |
| 总负债 | US$28,981,505,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$10,980,930,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$26,615,488,000 |
| 净利润 | US$10,981,201,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$11,683,039,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$333,389,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$368,449,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$10,149,273,000 |
| 经营现金流出 | US$1,533,766,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$19,384,817,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$7,807,337,000 |
| 投资现金流入 | US$1,041,688,000 |
| 汇率影响 | US$386,519,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$10,345,623,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$9,039,194,000 |
| 投资现金流 | US$1,041,688,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$10,345,623,000 |
2026-09-08分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | US$88.3亿 | US$53.4亿 | US$1.9亿 | -US$14.7亿 | -US$15.8亿 | US$1.1亿 | US$5752.8万 | US$1.7亿 | — | US$0 | — | US$4976.5万 | US$10.9亿 | — | US$14.7亿 | US$17.3亿 | US$35.6亿 | 4.3% | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-31 | US$116.9亿 | US$71.1亿 | US$5.6亿 | -US$17.9亿 | -US$19.6亿 | US$1.7亿 | US$7191.1万 | US$1.8亿 | — | US$0 | — | US$3432.9万 | US$30.8亿 | US$14.7亿 | US$28.2亿 | US$28.2亿 | US$90.5亿 | 7.2% | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-31 | US$157.9亿 | US$92.6亿 | US$12.1亿 | -US$26.8亿 | -US$28.5亿 | US$1.7亿 | US$8315.7万 | US$3.2亿 | — | — | — | -US$3.4亿 | US$40.5亿 | US$28.2亿 | US$38.1亿 | US$37.9亿 | US$148.7亿 | 10.2% | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-31 | US$201.6亿 | US$120.1亿 | US$18.7亿 | -US$28.9亿 | -US$31.4亿 | US$2.5亿 | US$1亿 | US$4.1亿 | US$0 | — | — | -US$3.9亿 | US$45.1亿 | US$38.1亿 | US$50.4亿 | US$50.2亿 | US$207.2亿 | 12.9% | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-31 | US$250亿 | US$155.1亿 | US$27.6亿 | US$24.3亿 | US$19.3亿 | US$5亿 | US$1.2亿 | US$4.2亿 | US$0 | — | — | -US$5.1亿 | US$12.4亿 | US$50.4亿 | US$82.4亿 | US$82.1亿 | US$218.6亿 | 18.3% | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | US$297亿 | US$190.4亿 | US$51.2亿 | US$3.9亿 | -US$1.3亿 | US$5.2亿 | US$2.1亿 | US$4亿 | US$6亿 | — | — | -US$13.4亿 | -US$11.5亿 | US$82.4亿 | US$60.6亿 | US$60.3亿 | US$153.9亿 | 20.9% | — | 6.6% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | US$316.2亿 | US$203.3亿 | US$44.9亿 | US$20.3亿 | US$16.2亿 | US$4.1亿 | US$3.4亿 | US$5.8亿 | US$0 | — | -US$7亿 | -US$20.8亿 | -US$6.6亿 | US$60.6亿 | US$51.7亿 | US$60.6亿 | US$143.5亿 | 17.8% | — | 8.7% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | US$337.2亿 | US$215.1亿 | US$54.1亿 | US$72.7亿 | US$69.3亿 | US$3.5亿 | US$3.6亿 | US$3.4亿 | US$60.5亿 | — | US$0 | US$5.4亿 | -US$59.5亿 | US$51.7亿 | US$71.2亿 | US$71.4亿 | US$169.7亿 | 20.6% | — | 11.4% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | US$390亿 | US$248.8亿 | US$87.1亿 | US$73.6亿 | US$69.2亿 | US$4.4亿 | US$3.3亿 | US$2.7亿 | US$62.6亿 | — | US$13.9亿 | -US$21.8亿 | -US$40.7亿 | US$71.2亿 | US$78.1亿 | US$95.8亿 | US$155.8亿 | 26.7% | — | 12.3% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | US$451.8亿 | US$302.5亿 | US$109.8亿 | US$101.5亿 | US$94.6亿 | US$6.9亿 | US$3.3亿 | US$3.7亿 | US$91.3亿 | — | -US$18.3亿 | US$10.4亿 | -US$103.5亿 | US$78.1亿 | US$90.4亿 | US$90.6亿 | US$144.6亿 | 29.5% | — | 10.8% | — |
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) trades at 21.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 22.6x compares with a peer median of 21.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The Walt Disney Company, AppLovin Corporation, Electronic Arts Inc. and Alphabet Inc. Class C, as of 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-08.
Entertainment-industry capital spending was negative 1.3% of revenue, while capital spending was 0.63 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01, retrieved that day.
Healthy acquisition, retention, pricing, and advertising demand could support continued revenue growth, although that outlook comes from management commentary rather than a capacity indicator.
A weaker demand cycle would expose whether added formats create profitable engagement or merely require more content spending. Production savings may also be reinvested rather than retained.
Netflix enters this demand cycle with audience scale and positive cash generation, but must preserve both growth and operating margin to demonstrate resilience.45
Below a normal portfolio weight. The $78.25 report-date price exceeds $63.88 Fair value and is close to $79 Potential value.3
Treat repurchases as discretionary while debt exceeds cash, and do not rely on cash-compounding upside without continued positive free cash flow.
The report-date price is above Fair value, while the growth and margin gates remain unresolved.3
Avoid adding and reduce exposure near Potential value. Preserve only a smaller holding if the operating gates remain intact.
Debt above cash and uncertain post-FY2027 duration make the valuation sensitive to weaker earnings conversion.36
Reduce exposure because the $78.25 report-date price exceeds $63.88 Fair value and sits near $79 Potential value.3
The business can keep compounding, but the shares provide limited room for an earnings slowdown, earlier revenue fade, or sustained margin pressure.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Revenue growth at or below 5% before FY2030 would invalidate the gradual fade and reduce the duration of above-mature earnings growth.
A cost of equity more than one percentage point above 10.0778% would reduce the present value of distant earnings.2
A sustained breach would indicate content or competitive costs are taking more of each revenue dollar. Lower operating profit would reduce internally generated cash and weaken the case for continued per-share compounding.
当前：FY2025 operating income was $13.33 billion on $45.18 billion of revenue, reported for the year ended 2025-12-31.
触发警报：Below 27% of revenue for two consecutive fiscal years.
An early growth fade would reduce the future sales base and shorten the period when audience scale can support above-mature growth. That would lower the earnings and cash path used in the thesis.
当前：The FY2027 revenue estimate is $57.01 billion as of and retrieved on 2026-09-08.
触发警报：At or below 5% in any fiscal year before FY2030.
A higher required return means investors demand more compensation for risk. Future earnings would be worth less in present terms even if the near-term operating outlook were unchanged.
当前：The moderate cost of equity was 10.0778% on 2026-09-08, computed and retrieved at 23:08:40 UTC.
触发警报：More than 1 percentage point above 10.0778% within 12 months.
Negative free cash flow while debt exceeds cash would force tighter choices among content spending, debt reduction, and repurchases. Slower repurchases would weaken the historical share-count support for per-share growth.
当前：FY2025 debt was $14.46 billion versus $9.03 billion of cash. The observations were available on 2026-09-08 and 2026-01-23, respectively.
触发警报：Debt remains above cash while annual free cash flow turns negative.
Under the moderate discount rate, US$27.12 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$32.61 from the long-term value, totaling US$59.73.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
The bull path requires audience scale to improve partner economics and added formats to produce profitable engagement. Stable margins and positive cash would confirm persistence.45
An early fade would reduce future sales and earnings duration.
Margin shows whether content and competition absorb monetization gains.
Cash funds content, debt reduction, and per-share compounding.
A wider gap would reduce flexibility for repurchases during weakness.
| $62.13B |
| $66.48B |
| $69.81B |
| Operating income | $15.62B | $17.39B | $18.95B | $20.28B | $21.29B |
| NOPAT | $13.57B | $15.10B | $16.46B | $17.61B | $18.50B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $13.57B | $15.10B | $16.46B | $17.61B | $18.50B |
| Revenue growth | 13.4% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| Operating margin | 30.5% | 30.5% | 30.5% | 30.5% | 30.5% |
| Tax rate | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 利润率 |
|---|
| NFLX | Netflix Inc. | $325.8B | 21.6x | 6.7x | 22.6x | 49.5% | — |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 14.1x | 1.8x | 10.9x | 8.0% | 19.3% | |
| APP | AppLovin Corporation | 15.3x | 15.8x | 19.9x | 203.7% | 77.7% | |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 21.8x | 6.7x | 30.4x | 16.5% | 25.9% | |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. Class C | 22.6x | 9.2x | 23.1x | 48.7% | 34.0% |
| Reduce remaining exposure because the assumed growth duration has failed. |
| GAAP operating margin | Below 27% for two fiscal years | Reduce remaining exposure because competitive or content costs have become structurally erosive. |
