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The biggest opportunity lies in the successful execution of the Pace transformation program, which targets $2.5B in cumulative gross savings through FY2031, coupled with the Sport Offense re-establishing product leadership in running and basketball,.
Greater China revenue contracting more than 20% YoY on a sustained basis over the next 12 months,.
NIKE, Inc. is navigating a cyclical earnings trough in FY2027 driven by wholesale channel clearing and a Greater China reset, balanced against durable global brand equity and multi-year supply chain efficiencies from the Pace transformation.
Nike's investment narrative presents a classic tension between cyclical trough operational realities and enduring franchise value. Following several years of aggressive direct-to-consumer expansion that alienated wholesale partners and coincided with product fatigue in lifestyle franchises, Nike is undergoing an operational reset under CEO Elliott Hill,. In Q1 FY2027, consolidated revenues fell 4% reported (-5% currency neutral) to $11.21B, with management guiding full-year FY2027 revenues to decline high-single digits and EBIT to decline faster than revenue,. In Greater China, revenues contracted 22% reported (-26% currency neutral) in Q1 FY2027 to $1.18B, and CFO Dave Denton noted that China revenue is expected to weaken further over the balance of the fiscal year.3
At a share price of $34.71 as of October 9, 2026, the stock trades at an 8.7% premium to the house mid fair value of $31.93 (representing an implied return of -8.0%). Trading at 21.01x NTM forward earnings, valuation is fully priced relative to near-term earnings risk and dividend coverage tension, with guided FY2027 adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.35 falling below annual dividend payments of $1.64 per share,. We maintain a Hold rating, advising investors to maintain existing allocations while awaiting clear proof of wholesale stabilization and China inflection before committing fresh capital.23
The core athletic performance portfolio grew to $16B in FY2026 and delivered broad-based growth across all key sports in Q1 FY2027, validating CEO Elliott Hill's renewed focus on athletic product innovation,.3
The multi-year Pace initiative delivers $2.5B in cumulative gross savings through FY2031 by reorganizing regional operations, establishing an India capability center, and streamlining sourcing, with initial gross margin expansion already surfacing in Q1 FY2027,.3
Nike possesses the athletic apparel industry's most recognizable trademark portfolio and premier global athlete roster, generating $45.22B in Nike Brand revenue in FY2026. Long-term partnerships and elite sports marketing create high consumer mindshare and pricing resilience across basketball, football, and running,.36
Maintain Hold. Nike's premier global brand and supply chain restructuring provide substantial long-term value, but the shares fully reflect current fundamentals given near-term trough earnings, dividend coverage pressure, and persistent demand contraction in Greater China,. Investors should maintain current positions and look for operational proof of inventory stabilization before increasing allocation.
NIKE, Inc., based near Beaverton, Oregon, is the world's leading designer, marketer, and distributor of authentic athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for sports and fitness activities. In FY2026, the company generated $46.40B in consolidated revenue, consisting of $45.22B from the core Nike Brand and $1.17B from Converse,,. Under CEO Elliott Hill, Nike is executing an operational turnaround centered on its 'Sport Offense' to drive performance athletics and wholesale re-engagement.
A compound stress scenario evaluates the confluence of prolonged top-line contraction in Greater China exceeding -20% YoY, fixed overhead deleverage that compresses operating margin to 6.0%, and refinancing $2.0B in maturing debt at elevated rates that expands WACC above 9.77%. Under these conditions, annual free cash flow would contract below $1.5B, leaving Nike unable to cover its $1.64 per share dividend commitment ($2.43B annually across 1.481B diluted shares), without drawing down balance sheet cash or raising incremental leverage. This would trigger significant downward valuation revisions.
In the bear case, consumer demand in Greater China remains severely impaired and wholesale cancellations accelerate as retailers reallocate shelf space to specialty brands,. Promotional discounting persists across lifestyle footwear, suppressing gross margins. Concurrently, Pace implementation faces organizational friction, delaying cost savings while debt refinancing expands borrowing costs, severely compressing free cash flow coverage.
In Q1 FY2027, Greater China revenue fell 22% reported (-26% currency neutral) to $1,180M, with wholesale down 28% (-31% currency neutral) and segment EBIT dropping 34% to $248M. Management confirmed that FY2027 guidance assumes China revenue gets worse for the balance of the year,. A structural contraction exceeding -20% YoY would permanently impair Nike's highest-margin territory, resulting in an estimated -24.5% fair value impact.3
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
Structural market share loss and brand impairment in Nike's most profitable geography permanently depressing consolidated operating margins,.
当前：-22% reported (-26% currency-neutral) in Q1 FY2027
触发警报：Sustained contraction exceeding -20% YoY over 12 months
Nike's competitive moat is founded on iconic brand intangibles, global cultural relevance, and unparalleled scale distribution that generated $46.40B in consolidated FY2026 revenue. The core Nike Brand contributed $45.22B in revenue, while Converse generated $1.17B. These scale advantages enable Nike to outspend rivals on demand creation ($1.25B in Q1 FY2027) and secure unmatched athlete endorsements and sports federation partnerships.
Despite these enduring assets, Nike's competitive moat has narrowed over recent fiscal years. Previous over-rotation into direct-to-consumer digital channels strained key wholesale relationships, while innovation lulls in performance running permitted specialized disruptors to capture share in specialty running shops. Furthermore, lifestyle franchises including Sportswear and Jordan experienced marketplace fatigue, requiring elevated promotional clearing that compressed consolidated operating margin to 8.18% in FY2026. In response, CEO Elliott Hill has pivoted strategy to the 'Sport Offense', re-prioritizing performance athletics and rebuilding wholesale distribution,.
Moat durability over the medium term depends on successfully executing the multi-year Pace restructuring program. Announced on October 1, 2026, Pace aims to deliver $2.5B in cumulative gross savings through FY2031 against $1.0B in pre-tax charges ($300M in FY2027) by streamlining corporate geography from four to three regions, founding a global capability center in India, and optimizing supply chain logistics,. If executed effectively, Pace will provide the structural cost leverage necessary to expand operating margins toward 11.5% by FY2031, defending Nike's wide economic moat against aggressive global peers.
While Nike achieved FY2026 ROE of 21.56% against a computed cost of capital (WACC) of 8.7719% and cost of equity (Ke) of 9.6328%, economic profit spreads have compressed significantly. FY2026 operating margin fell to 8.18% from 13.55% in FY2024 and 15.58% in FY2021, and Q1 FY2027 EBIT margin stabilized only modestly at 8.1%, leaving less buffer against capital costs during the current restructuring phase.1
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($31.93). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
The base case models FY2027 as a deliberate operational reset year characterized by high single-digit revenue contraction and trough operating margins of 6.8%,. As excess lifestyle inventories clear and wholesale re-orders normalize, top-line growth recovers to +2.5% in FY2028 and +4.5% in FY2029. Supply chain efficiencies from Pace steadily ramp, driving operating margin recovery by FY2031 and restoring sustainable economic value creation.3
Results exceeding the upper end of guided ranges would indicate that the Sport Offense turnaround is accelerating and inventory clearance in wholesale channels is progressing faster than modeled.
Financial performance tracking within guided ranges confirms that FY2027 represents a planned trough year where inventory clearance and Pace restructuring expenses precede anticipated FY2028 operating leverage.
A material shortfall below guided trough ranges would signal persistent market share losses in core performance categories, failure of wholesale re-orders, and heightened balance sheet stress from debt refinancing.
Nike's earnings quality reflects an operating reset characterized by significant non-cash items and restructuring charges. In FY2026, GAAP diluted EPS of $2.10 was supported by $2.87B in operating cash flow and $2.18B in free cash flow. However, stock-based compensation of $715M represented ~23% of net income ($3.11B). For FY2027, management's guided adjusted diluted EPS of $1.15–$1.35 excludes approximately $0.15 per share ($300M pre-tax) in Pace restructuring costs,. Because the majority of Pace charges will result in future cash expenditures through FY2031, GAAP cash generation will be visibly lower than headline adjusted figures during this restructuring cycle.345
Consensus earnings estimates have undergone sharp negative revisions following Q1 FY2027 results and management guidance. FY2027 EPS consensus was revised down 18.4% over 7 days to $1.31, and down 24.6% over 30 days from $1.71 to $1.29. FY2028 EPS consensus declined 17.5% over 7 days to $1.74 and down 25.4% over 30 days from $2.22 to $1.65. Full-year FY2028 revenue estimates fell 5.4% over 7 days to $44.29B. Near-term quarters show similar weakness, with Q2 FY2027 EPS consensus cut 12.1% over 7 days to $0.39.
Cash flow performance highlights solid operating generation offset by near-term liquidity commitments. In FY2026, Nike generated $2.87B in operating cash flow and incurred $684M in capital expenditures, yielding free cash flow of $2.18B. Stock-based compensation was $715M. As of August 31, 2026, total cash, equivalents, and short-term investments stood at $8.37B ($6.90B in cash and equivalents and $1.47B in short-term investments). Inventories were managed down 3% YoY to $7.85B. However, operating cash flow in FY2027 will be burdened by $300M in pre-tax restructuring cash charges under Pace and working capital adjustments as wholesale channels normalize.45
Nike's return on invested capital has compressed steadily as operating profit margins decreased from 15.58% in FY2021 to 8.18% in FY2026. Modeled operating margin drops further to 6.8% in FY2027 as revenue declines high-single digits and restructuring charges take effect,. However, ROIC is projected to inflect upward beginning in FY2028 (modeled margin 8.5%) and normalize toward 11.5% by FY2031 as Pace savings compound,.
Nike's baseline return on equity is modeled at 21.56%, compared to a computed cost of capital (WACC) of 8.7719% and cost of equity (Ke) of 9.6328%. While returns continue to comfortably exceed the cost of capital, economic value added has diminished compared to peak historical cycles.
| 营业收入 | US$46,398,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$26,487,000,000 |
| 毛利 | US$19,911,000,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$16,111,000,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$3,800,000,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$692,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$3,108,000,000 |
| 总资产 | US$38,410,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$7,563,000,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$24,603,000,000 |
| 总负债 | US$23,545,000,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$12,547,000,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$14,865,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$3,108,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$4,570,000,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$747,000,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$715,000,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$2,868,000,000 |
| 经营现金流出 | US$1,702,000,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$10,343,000,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$7,464,000,000 |
| 汇率影响 | US$11,000,000 |
| 投资现金流出 | US$488,000,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$2,292,000,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$7,563,000,000 |
| 投资现金流 | -US$488,000,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$2,292,000,000 |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-07-15 · SEC EDGAR
| 按经营分部划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKEBrand | US$452.2亿 | 97.5% | 1.1% |
| Converse | US$11.7亿 | 2.5% | -30.6% |
2026-10-11分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-31 | US$343.5亿 | US$54.7亿 | US$42.4亿 | US$38.5亿 | US$27.4亿 | US$11.1亿 | US$7.2亿 | US$2.2亿 | US$32.2亿 | US$11.3亿 | — | -US$10.1亿 | -US$21.5亿 | — | US$38.1亿 | US$61.8亿 | US$34.8亿 | 13.8% | — | 5.4% | — |
| 2018-05-31 | US$364亿 | US$52.2亿 | US$19.3亿 | US$49.6亿 | US$39.3亿 | US$10.3亿 | US$7.7亿 | US$2.2亿 | US$42.5亿 | US$12.4亿 | — | US$2.8亿 | -US$48.4亿 | US$38.1亿 | US$42.5亿 | US$52.5亿 | US$34.7亿 | 12.2% | — | 6.3% | — |
| 2019-05-31 | US$391.2亿 | US$54.9亿 | US$40.3亿 | US$59亿 | US$47.8亿 | US$11.2亿 | US$7.2亿 | US$3.3亿 | US$42.9亿 | US$13.3亿 | — | -US$2.6亿 | -US$52.9亿 | US$42.5亿 | US$44.7亿 | US$46.6亿 | US$34.7亿 | 12.2% | — | 5.4% | — |
| 2020-05-31 | US$374亿 | US$42.3亿 | US$25.4亿 | US$24.9亿 | US$14亿 | US$10.9亿 | US$11.2亿 | US$4.3亿 | US$30.7亿 | US$14.5亿 | — | -US$10.3亿 | US$24.9亿 | US$44.7亿 | US$83.5亿 | US$87.9亿 | US$94.1亿 | 8.3% | — | 3.9% | — |
| 2021-05-31 | US$445.4亿 | US$77.3亿 | US$57.3亿 | US$66.6亿 | US$59.6亿 | US$7亿 | US$8亿 | US$6.1亿 | US$6.1亿 | US$16.4亿 | — | -US$38亿 | -US$14.6亿 | US$83.5亿 | US$98.9亿 | US$134.8亿 | US$94.1亿 | 15.6% | — | 4.9% | — |
| 2022-05-31 | US$467.1亿 | US$77.8亿 | US$60.5亿 | US$51.9亿 | US$44.3亿 | US$7.6亿 | US$8.4亿 | US$6.4亿 | US$40.1亿 | US$18.4亿 | US$1500万 | -US$15.2亿 | -US$48.4亿 | US$98.9亿 | US$85.7亿 | US$130亿 | US$94.2亿 | 14.3% | — | 6.4% | — |
| 2023-05-31 | US$512.2亿 | US$73.4亿 | US$50.7亿 | US$58.4亿 | US$48.7亿 | US$9.7亿 | US$7亿 | US$7.6亿 | US$54.8亿 | US$20.1亿 | -US$5亿 | US$5.6亿 | -US$74.5亿 | US$85.7亿 | US$74.4亿 | US$106.8亿 | US$89.3亿 | 11.5% | — | 7.4% | — |
| 2024-05-31 | US$513.6亿 | US$78.1亿 | US$57亿 | US$74.3亿 | US$66.2亿 | US$8.1亿 | US$8亿 | US$8亿 | US$42.5亿 | US$21.7亿 | US$0 | US$8.9亿 | -US$58.9亿 | US$74.4亿 | US$98.6亿 | US$115.8亿 | US$89亿 | 12.3% | — | 8.2% | — |
| 2025-05-31 | US$463.1亿 | US$49.8亿 | US$32.2亿 | US$37亿 | US$32.7亿 | US$4.3亿 | US$7.8亿 | US$7.1亿 | US$29.9亿 | US$23亿 | -US$10亿 | -US$2.8亿 | -US$58.2亿 | US$98.6亿 | US$74.6亿 | US$91.5亿 | US$79.6亿 | 8.0% | — | 8.6% | — |
| 2026-05-31 | US$464亿 | US$45.4亿 | US$31.1亿 | US$28.7亿 | US$21.8亿 | US$6.8亿 | US$7.5亿 | US$7.2亿 | US$1.5亿 | US$24.1亿 | US$0 | -US$4.9亿 | -US$22.9亿 | US$74.6亿 | US$75.6亿 | US$90.3亿 | US$79.4亿 | 8.2% | — | 8.8% | — |
NIKE Inc. (NKE) trades at 21.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.2x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.1x compares with a peer median of 11.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Starbucks Corporation, Lowe's Companies Inc., Packaging Corporation of America and Avery Dennison Corporation, as of 2026-10-10.
Industry capital expenditure to revenue stands at a lean 0.004 (0.4%) and industry capex to depreciation is 0.85. Nike's FY2026 capex of $684M on $46.40B revenue represented 1.47% of sales,. Industry capex to depreciation below 1.0 indicates capital discipline and capacity rationalization. Because detailed supply lead-time and manufacturing capacity utilization data are unavailable, the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.5
The bull cycle is characterized by major international athletic tournament catalysts, accelerating global health and wellness adoption, premium pricing power supported by breakthrough product engineering, and synchronized restocking cycles across wholesale partners that amplify operating leverage.
The bear cycle in athletic apparel is defined by persistent consumer discretionary spending fatigue, aggressive promotional markdowns to clear lifestyle footwear inventory, and escalating geopolitical and local competitive headwinds in Greater China,. Fixed cost deleverage compounds margin degradation during volume contractions.
Nike maintains an unmatched scale position as the global revenue leader in athletic footwear and apparel ($46.40B in FY2026 revenue). While smaller competitors exploit niche running categories, Nike's expansive marketing budget and global wholesale relationships position it to capture broad-based cyclical recovery once the current operational turnaround matures,.35
A moderate conviction level and conservative allocation reflect Nike's wide economic moat and formidable global brand assets balanced against near-term cyclical earnings deterioration, negative consensus estimate revisions, and dividend payout stress during the FY2027 transition,.3
Risk management protocols dictate active monitoring of wholesale order books across key sporting goods retailers, tracking specialty running market share changes, and evaluating currency fluctuations given that 54% of revenues originate outside North America. Exposure should be re-evaluated if $2.0B maturing debt is refinanced at credit spreads wider than 150 bps over benchmark Treasuries.
Trading at $34.71, the stock sits at an 8.7% premium to house mid fair value ($31.93),. An NTM forward P/E of 21.01x exceeds retail and packaging peers (LOW at 14.31x, AVY at 15.00x) and offers insufficient buffer against FY2027 operational risks.2
Top-line growth remains negative, with management guiding high-single digit revenue declines in FY2027. While FY2028 revenue is modeled to recover to +2.5%, evidence of wholesale order stabilization and performance share recapture is required before establishing a growth stance.3
Nike's $1.64 annual dividend offers an attractive 4.72% yield at $34.71,. However, the dividend payout ratio exceeds 100% of guided FY2027 EPS ($1.15–$1.35),. While management committed to sustaining the payout, debt refinancing creates capital allocation tension.23
We maintain a Hold rating on NIKE, Inc.. The company balances near-term trough earnings in FY2027—marked by wholesale inventory clearance and China restructuring—against powerful long-term brand equity, an ongoing athletic performance resurgence, and substantial supply chain efficiencies from the Pace program that support a sustained operating recovery.
With near-term consensus estimate revisions continuing downward and dividend coverage stretched above 100% of guided earnings, current prices offer an inadequate margin of safety for new capital,. Existing investors should hold positions while tracking operational milestones.
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The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Consolidated operating margin was 8.18% in FY2026. Management guidance projects EBIT will decline faster than revenue in FY2027 due to fixed cost deleverage, gross margin pressure, and marketing investments. Additionally, the Pace restructuring program will absorb $1.0B in pre-tax charges through FY2031 ($300M in FY2027) while savings ramp slowly. If operating margin drops below 6.0%, cash flow generation collapses, driving an estimated -28.0% fair value impact.23
The base valuation assumes an 18.0x terminal P/E. Specialty running brands have disrupted Nike's core performance running moat, while peers trade at forward P/Es of 14.31x (LOW) and 15.00x (AVY). If market consensus permanently de-rates Nike's multiple by 20% to 14.4x, terminal value drops sharply, producing an estimated -20.0% fair value impact.2
Computed WACC is currently 8.7719% and Ke is 9.6328%. Nike has $11.13B of total debt, with $2.0B of long-term debt maturing into current liabilities as of Q1 FY2027. With FY2027 guided EPS of $1.15-$1.35 falling below annual dividend payments of $1.64 per share (payout ratio >100%), refinancing at higher yields and credit spread widening would lift WACC above 9.77%, causing an estimated -15.2% fair value impact.123
Severe fixed cost deleverage from promotional inventory clearing and Pace restructuring execution costs collapsing cash flow generation,.
当前：8.18% in FY2026; 8.1% in Q1 FY2027
Balance sheet liquidity strain forcing incremental borrowing at higher yields or threatening capital return durability,.
当前：Guided FY2027 EPS of $1.15–$1.35 vs. $1.64 dividend per share (>100% payout)
触发警报：Free cash flow dividend coverage below 1.0x while $2.0B debt matures in current liabilities
Market consensus permanently de-rates Nike's brand multiple due to ongoing market share loss to running specialty challengers,.
当前：18.0x base terminal P/E vs. peer packaging/retail multiples of 14.3x–15.0x
触发警报：Terminal valuation multiple de-rating by 20% to 14.4x
Credit spread widening and refinancing of $2.0B maturing long-term debt at elevated interest rates expanding capital costs and reducing equity intrinsic value,.
当前：8.7719% computed WACC
触发警报：WACC expanding above 9.77% (+100 bps)
| high |
| 12 to 18 months |
| Executing a comprehensive marketplace reset, repositioning as a premium cultural brand, and resetting retail wholesale inventories,.3 |
| Wholesale Re-engagement Friction and Direct Digital Channel Margin Drag | medium | 6 to 12 months | Strengthening wholesale partnerships (wholesale grew 9% in North America in Q1 FY2027) while rationalizing digital cost structures through the Pace initiative. |
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Project revenue, apply a terminal EV/revenue multiple, discount enterprise value, subtract net debt, and divide by diluted shares.
In the bull case, the Sport Offense achieves rapid consumer adoption across running, basketball, and football, reclaiming market share from specialty entrants,. Wholesale partners aggressively restock core Nike franchises. Pace supply chain initiatives achieve early savings, driving consolidated operating margin back above prior peak levels and generating robust free cash flow that easily covers capital returns and debt obligations.3
Measures whether promotional clearance activities subside and operational overhead reductions offset fixed cost deleverage.3
Verifies execution of the $2.5B cumulative savings target through FY2031, which underpins the modeled margin recovery to 11.5%,.
Confirms whether new performance product innovation is reclaiming market share in core running and training categories from niche competitors.3
With guided FY2027 EPS of $1.15–$1.35 below the $1.64 annual dividend, free cash flow generation must cover dividend payouts and maturing obligations,.3
| $46.29B |
| $48.60B |
| $50.54B |
| Operating income | $2.94B | $3.76B | $4.54B | $5.35B | $5.81B |
| NOPAT | $2.45B | $3.13B | $3.77B | $4.44B | $4.83B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $2.16B | $2.76B | $3.33B | $3.92B | $4.27B |
| Revenue growth | -6.7% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| Operating margin | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 11.5% |
| Tax rate | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| Reinvestment rate | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Nike's capital allocation is undergoing a disciplined realignment. In Q1 FY2027, the company returned $610M to shareholders via dividends, an increase of 3% YoY. Annual dividend payments of $1.64 per share require ~$2.43B annually across 1.481B diluted shares. While CFO Dave Denton reiterated management's commitment to maintaining and growing the dividend under all scenarios, the payout ratio exceeds 100% of guided FY2027 adjusted EPS ($1.15–$1.35),. Share repurchases have been halted, and capital expenditures remain restrained ($684M in FY2026) to preserve liquidity ahead of $2.0B in debt maturities.
Consolidated operating margin was 8.18% in FY2026 ($3.80B EBIT on $46.40B revenue),. Management guided FY2027 revenues to decline high-single digits with EBIT declining faster than revenue,. Modeled operating margin drops to 6.8% in FY2027 before recovering to 8.5% in FY2028 and 11.5% by FY2031.
Fixed overhead deleverage during the revenue reset will suppress FY2027 operating earnings before Pace efficiency initiatives begin restoring margin expansion in FY2028.
The Pace transformation program targets $2.5B in cumulative gross savings through FY2031 while absorbing $1.0B in pre-tax restructuring charges ($300M in FY2027). Q1 FY2027 gross margin expanded 60 bps to 42.8% aided by early supply chain savings,.
The restructuring provides substantial structural cost leverage, but net benefits are heavily back-half loaded toward FY2029–FY2031.
As of August 31, 2026, $2.0B of long-term debt transitioned into current liabilities. Total debt stands at $11.13B. Guided FY2027 EPS of $1.15–$1.35 falls below the $1.64 annual dividend commitment,.
Refinancing maturing debt at current market rates alongside a dividend payout ratio exceeding 100% will constrain balance sheet flexibility until earnings rebound.
| 利润率 |
|---|
| NKE | NIKE Inc. | $51.6B | 21.0x | 1.1x | 11.1x | 21.6% | — |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corporation | $103.5B | 29.0x | 2.7x | 22.2x | — | 12.9% |
| LOW | Lowe's Companies Inc. | $104.4B | 14.3x | 1.2x | 11.4x | — | 13.4% |
| PKG | Packaging Corporation of America | $20.5B | 17.4x | 2.2x | 12.1x | 14.9% | 13.1% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | $12.8B | 15.0x | 1.4x | 10.8x | 31.2% | 13.6% |
| neutral |
| Brands are abandoning pure direct-to-consumer digital strategies in favor of a balanced wholesale-retail hybrid model to optimize customer acquisition costs and inventory clearance. |
| Quarterly EBIT margin falling below 6.0% of revenue |
| Lower medium-term earnings recovery trajectory and reduce position sizing,.2 |
| Free Cash Flow Dividend Coverage | Quarterly operating cash flow failing to cover quarterly dividend ($610M) and capex ($170M) | Evaluate balance sheet liquidity and stress-test debt refinancing costs,.3 |
