Natera, Inc. (NTRA)

NASDAQ: NTRA · USD

$425

+13.97 (+3.4%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: NTRA rated Sell

Natera, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$75.9 / share

Potential value

$134 / share

Upside to FV

-81.5%

from $425

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$59.1B
Revenue (ttm)	2.7B
Net income (ttm)	-192.3M
EPS (ttm)	-$1.37
Shares out	144.1M
P/E (forward)	5000.0x
Volume	1,258,999
Beta	1.50

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 2.7B
Net income (ttm): -192.3M
EPS (ttm): -$1.37
P/E (forward): 5000.0x
Market cap: $59.1B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$625.5M	$820.2M	$1.08B	$1.70B	$2.31B	+38.6%
Gross profit	$307.1M	$364.0M	$492.7M	$1.02B	$1.50B	+48.6%
Operating income	$-468.2M	$-541.0M	$-446.2M	$-222.3M	$-309.9M	—
Net income	$-471.7M	$-547.8M	$-434.8M	$-190.4M	$-208.2M	—
EPS (diluted)	$-5.21	$-5.57	$-3.78	$-1.53	$-1.52	—
EBITDA	$-451.5M	$-507.0M	$-383.3M	$-148.1M	$-220.5M	—
R&D	$264.2M	$316.4M	$320.7M	$404.1M	$624.1M	+24.0%
SG&A	$511.0M	$588.6M	$618.3M	$841.3M	$1.18B	+23.2%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AI	C3.ai, Inc.	2B	—	8.4x	-35.6%	+3.6%	-33.6%	卖出
BAX	Baxter International Inc.	13.1B	—	1.2x	6.8%	-1.2%	+9.9%	买入
CNC	Centene Corporation	33.2B	22.7x	0.2x	6.9%	+9.6%	+101.2%	减持
ABBV	AbbVie Inc.	505.6B	80.8x	7.9x	17.7%	+3.7%	+29.1%	卖出
ABT	Abbott Laboratories	177.6B	38.2x	3.7x	7.2%	+2.7%	-17.2%	减持
ALGN	Align Technology Inc.	10.9B	26.6x	2.6x	17.2%	+3.6%	+11.6%	减持

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$75.94

-81.5% from spot

In the base case, revenue expands in line with consensus projections at 26.15% in FY2026 and 19.97% in FY2027, before decelerating toward 11.0% by FY2030 as domestic clinical adoption matures. Operating margins transition from -5.5% in FY2026 to positive 2.0% in FY2027 and normalize toward 16.0% by FY2030 as fixed laboratory overhead levers down. Capex scales down from FY2025 peak levels of $106.19M (3.2x D&A) toward maintenance intensity of 9.38% reinvestment rate in FY2030. Medicare reimbursement remains stable at ~13.6% of revenue. Under an equal-weighted synthesis of EV/revenue ($114.97) and FCFF DCF ($36.90) at a 10.40% WACC, Fair value is established at $75.94.

Revenue growth follows the approved schedule from 26.15% in FY2026 to 11.0% in FY2030
Operating margin inflects from -5.5% in FY2026 to +2.0% in FY2027, reaching 16.0% by FY2030
Reinvestment rate normalizes to 9.38% by FY2030 as transformation laboratory buildout concludes
Terminal EV/revenue multiple of 5.50x and WACC of 10.4005% applied to normalized cash flows

Bull20%

Price target

$134.46

-67.2% from spot

In the bull case, oncology test penetration and women's health volume accelerate beyond consensus expectations, sustaining strong double-digit annual revenue growth through FY2028. Fixed-cost absorption across high-throughput laboratory facilities drives gross margin expansion toward 70% and enables GAAP operating profitability ahead of expectations by FY2027. Rolling MolDX coverage decisions for pending submissions deliver an estimated $150 to $200 ASP expansion, while international launch in Japan broadens geographic diversification. Capex normalizes rapidly toward maintenance levels, generating substantial positive FCFF.

Revenue growth accelerates above 26.2% in FY2026 and exceeds 22% through FY2028 driven by rapid clinical adoption of Signatera in oncology
Rolling MolDX coverage decisions deliver $150 to $200 ASP expansion over the next 12 to 18 months
Sequencing automation efficiencies lift gross margins above 70% and operating margin reaches 18.0% by FY2030
Capex normalizes toward baseline capital expenditure intensity, generating substantial positive free cash flow

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($75.94). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	3.3%	3.5%
9.4%	$89.6	$90.4	$91.2	$92.1	$93.1
9.9%	$86.4	$87.1	$87.8	$88.5	$89.4
10.4%	$78.4	$79.0	$75.9	$80.2	$80.9
10.9%	$80.8	$81.3	$81.9	$82.4	$83.0
11.4%	$78.4	$78.8	$79.2	$79.7	$80.2

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E5,000

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E0

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE-12.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC-10.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All NTRA indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

226

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 226 of 226 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001604821
Company name	Natera, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	632307104
Earnings date	2026-11-09
Earnings time	amc
Employees	6,140
Employees change	1,706
Employees growth	38.48%
Enterprise value	$60.4B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	2003
Industry	Diagnostics & Research
IPO date	2015-07-02
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US6323071042
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-27
Last earnings date	2026-08-06
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$61.2B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-09
Options	Yes
Price	$424.80
Price currency	USD
Sector	Healthcare
SIC code	8071
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	NTRA
U.S. state	Texas
Website	https://www.natera.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Earnings yield	-0.32%
EV/FCF	723.01x
EV/Sales	22.49x
FCF / EV yield	0.14%
FCF yield	0.14%
Forward EV/Sales	19.41x
Forward P/S	19.68x
Industry forward P/E	30.87x
Industry P/E	50.24x
P/B ratio	32.39x
P/FCF ratio	733.14x
P/OCF ratio	270.45x
P/S ratio	22.8x
Price / tangible book value	46.76x
Sector forward P/E	23.56x
Sector P/E	50.08x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	-10.54%
EBITDA margin	-8.29%
FCF margin	3.11%
Gross margin	65.23%
Operating margin	-10.54%
Pretax margin	-9.33%
Profit margin	-7.11%
Profit per employee	$-31,327
Revenue per employee	$440,892
ROA	-8.08%
ROA (5Y)	-18.17%
ROCE	-13.55%
ROE	-12.54%
ROE (5Y)	-51.25%
ROIC	-10.18%
SBC / revenue	14.09%
Tax / revenue	-2.23%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth quarters	1
EPS growth years	3
FCF growth	-19.47%
Gross profit growth	43.01%
Gross profit growth (Q)	39.98%
Gross profit growth 3Y	64.6%
Gross profit growth 5Y	47.82%
Net income growth quarters	1
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	22.25%
OCF growth (Q)	45.83%
OCF growth (QoQ)	36.4%
Revenue growth	37.82%
Revenue growth (Q)	37.72%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	8.05%
Revenue growth 10Y	29.03%
Revenue growth 3Y	42.73%
Revenue growth 5Y	39.92%
Revenue growth quarters	37
Revenue growth years	8

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-144M
Depreciation and amortization	$60.8M
EBIT	$-285.2M
EBITDA	$-224.4M
EPS	$-1.37
FCF per share	$0.58
Financing cash flow	$50.3M
Free cash flow	$84.2M
Free cash flow minus SBC	$-297.2M
Gross profit	$1.8B
Income taxes	$-60.4M
Investing cash flow	$-187.1M
Net cash flow	$91.5M
Net income	$-192.3M
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$-153.2M
Operating income	$-285.2M
Revenue	$2.7B
Stock-based compensation	$381.4M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	19.48
Book value per share	$12.68
Debt / equity	0.13
Debt / FCF	2.83
Goodwill	$141.1M
Interest coverage	-74.72
Long-term assets	$998.5M
Long-term liabilities	$282.8M
Net cash (debt)	$853M
Net cash / market cap	1.38%
Net cash growth	4.04%
Net debt / equity	-0.47
Net debt / FCF	-10.13
Piotroski F-Score	4
Property, plant and equipment	$447.3M
Shareholders' equity	$1.8B
Tangible book value	$1.3B
Tangible book value per share	$9.19
Total assets	$2.7B
Total cash	$1.1B
Total debt	$238.5M
Total liabilities	$836M
WACC	12.45%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.23
Current assets	$1.7B
Current liabilities	$553.2M
Current ratio	3
Inventory turnover	13.98
Net working capital	$109.7M
Quick ratio	2.74
Working capital	$1.1B
Working capital turnover	2.52

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-6.45%
Dividend yield	0%
Shareholder yield	-6.45%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	4,667.11%
10Y return CAGR	47.18%
10Y total return	4,667.11%
150-day SMA	$281.18
1D price change	3.4%
1M price change	4%
1M total return	4%
1W price change	5.7%
1W total return	5.7%
1Y price change	123.2%
1Y return CAGR	123.33%
1Y total return	123.2%
20-day SMA	$404.37
200-day SMA	$264.30
3M price change	66.28%
3M total return	66.28%
3Y price change	1,021.38%
3Y return CAGR	123.79%
3Y total return	1,021.38%
50-day SMA	$373.15
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$437.41
52-week high date	2026-10-06
52-week low	$181.00
52-week low date	2026-03-27
5Y price change	276.42%
5Y return CAGR	30.36%
5Y total return	276.42%
6M price change	109.91%
6M total return	109.91%
All-time high	$437.41
All-time high date	2026-10-06
All-time low	$6.52
All-time low date	2016-02-08
Average true range (ATR)	$16.85
Average volume	1.6M
Beta (1Y)	1.04
Beta (2Y)	0.89
Beta (5Y)	1.5
Change from 52-week high	-2.88%
Change from 52-week low	134.7%
Change from all-time high	-1.91%
Change from all-time low	6,480.37%
Change from open	3.36%
Day's gap	0.04%
Dollar volume	$534.8M
High price	$432.22
Low price	$411.00
Monthly RSI	83.43
Open price	$411.00
Position in 52-week range	65.03%
Premarket change	-0.69%
Premarket close	$410.82
Premarket price	$408.00
Previous close	$410.82
Price vs 150-day SMA	52.58%
Price vs 20-day SMA	6.1%
Price vs 200-day SMA	62.33%
Price vs 50-day SMA	14.98%
Relative volume	0.81
RSI	67.46
Sharpe ratio	1.82
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.87
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.69
Sortino ratio	3.16
Sortino ratio (3Y)	3.3
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.13
Volume	1.3M
Weekly RSI	78.9
YTD price change	87.28%
YTD total return	87.28%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	140.1M
Float percentage	97.22%
Shares change (QoQ)	1.26%
Shares change (YoY)	6.45%
Shares held by insiders	2.74%
Shares held by institutions	96.89%
Shares outstanding	144.1M
Short % of float	4.18%
Short % of shares	4.06%
Short ratio	4.1 days

Deeper analysis on NTRA

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this NTRA report

What is the latest published NTRA stock rating?

Natera, Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full NTRA analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/NTRA/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for NTRA?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives NTRA a fair value of USD 76 and a potential value of USD 134. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the NTRA page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellNTRA · Fair value $75.9-81.5%

Read full analysis →

Natera, Inc. (NTRA)

Our latest published analysis: NTRA rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · NTRA

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All NTRA indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on NTRA

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	8.5
Profitability	1.5
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	7.0
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	3.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5