NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NASDAQ: NVDA · Real-Time Price · USD
$215
+3.70 (+1.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: NVDA rated Strong Buy
NVDA is rated Strong Buy at $219.51 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $377.33, implying +71.90% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Fair value (mid)
$377 / share
$223 – $528
Upside to FV
+71.9%
from $215
Confidence
80/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull perspective: AI supercycle durability + CUDA lock-in + Blackwell/Rubin cadence sustain 73%+ gross margin and support $450–528 fair value over 24 months
Biggest risk
AI capex cycle peak and digestion
The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
NVDA is rated Strong Buy at $219.51 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $377.33, implying +71.90% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $5.32T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 215.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 120.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $4.90 | |
| Shares out | 24.3B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 43.9x | |
| P/E (forward) | 17.4x | |
| Dividend | $0.04 (0.02%) | |
| Volume | 136,516,166 | |
| Beta | 2.24 | |
| Price target | $271 | +25.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
NVIDIA CorporationNVDA
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 215.9B
- Net income (ttm)
- 120.1B
- EPS (ttm)
- $4.90
- P/E (trailing)
- 43.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.4x
- Market cap
- $5.32T
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | P7 | P8 | P9 | P10 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2023-01-29 | 2023-01-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-01-28 | 2024-01-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-01-31 | 2025-12-31 | 2026-01-31 | 2026-05-22 | Trend |
| Revenue | $26.97B | $26.97B | $26.97B | $60.92B | $60.92B | $60.92B | $130.50B | $130.50B | $215.94B | $215.94B | +26.0% |
| Gross profit | $15.36B | $15.36B | — | $44.30B | $44.30B | — | $97.86B | — | $153.46B | — | +29.1% |
| Operating income | $4.22B | $5.58B | — | $32.97B | $32.97B | — | $81.45B | — | $130.39B | — | +46.4% |
| Net income | $4.37B | $4.37B | $4.37B | $29.76B | $29.76B | $29.76B | $72.88B | $72.88B | $120.07B | $120.07B | +44.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.17 | $0.17 | — | $1.19 | $1.19 | — | $2.94 | — | $4.90 | — | +45.3% |
| EBITDA | $5.77B | $5.99B | — | $34.48B | $35.58B | — | $86.14B | — | $144.55B | — | +43.0% |
| R&D | $7.34B | $7.34B | — | $8.68B | $8.68B | — | $12.91B | — | $18.50B | — | +10.8% |
| SG&A | $2.44B | $2.44B | — | $2.65B | $2.65B | — | $3.49B | — | $4.58B | — | +7.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $223
- Fair value (mid)
- $377
- Fair value (high)
- $528
- Current price
- $215
- Upside to mid
- +71.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $496 | 45% |
| Discounted earnings | $221 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $328 | 20% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $314 | 15% |
| Owner earnings | $161 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.63 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $671 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$271
+25.8%
In the news
Latest news · NVDA
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $5.32T
- P/E (trailing)
- 43.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.4x
- P/S
- 24.2x
- P/B
- 33.3x
- PEG
- 0.66
- EV / EBITDA
- 38.9x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 71.1%
- Operating margin
- 60.4%
- ROE
- 101.5%
- ROA
- 51.2%
- ROIC
- 126.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.07
- Current ratio
- 3.91
- Quick ratio
- 3.14
Trading
- Beta
- 2.24
- Volume
- 136,516,166
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +71.4% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$527.51
+140.3% from spot
Bull case ties to the high end of the final fair-value range and requires better-than-modeled fundamentals or a durable improvement in the market multiple.
- AI supercycle extends beyond 2030; sovereign AI + inference scaling add demand vectors
- NVDA maintains >70% AI training share; gross margins sustain above 73%
- Revenue exceeds $500B FY2028; EPS power reaches $14–15 FY2028; terminal at 32x
Base50%
Price target
$377.33
+71.9% from spot
Base case ties to the final fair-value midpoint and assumes the accepted model-weight synthesis remains intact.
- Revenue $380B FY2027 (internal valuation cross-check), decelerating at 6pp/year to 15% by FY2031
- Gross margins normalize to 73%; operating margin 60%; EPS $12.65 FY2027
- Terminal at 30x on FY2031 EPS; 17.5% margin of safety applied
Bear25%
Price target
$223.19
+1.7% from spot
Bear case ties to the low end of the final fair-value range and assumes the key risk drivers in the bear-case section persist.
- AI capex digestion: hyperscaler spend falls 20–25% in FY2028; revenue misses internal valuation cross-check by 20%+
- Custom ASIC captures 20% of training workloads; gross margin compresses toward 68%
- Multiple compresses to 22x on $8–9 FY2027 EPS; fair value approaches $200
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $377.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 45% | $496 | +130.6% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $221 | +2.8% | |
| FCFF DCF | 20% | $328 | +52.6% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 15% | $314 | +46.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $161 | -25.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.63 | -99.7% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $671 | +211.8% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $377 | +71.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($365.73). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.6% | $418 | $449 | $487 | $530 | $583 |
| 10.6% | $366 | $390 | $418 | $449 | $487 |
| 11.6% | $325 | $344 | $366 | $390 | $418 |
| 12.6% | $293 | $308 | $325 | $344 | $366 |
| 13.6% | $266 | $279 | $293 | $308 | $325 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation9.0
Management8.5
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency8.5
Weighted composite
8.4/10
High quality| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 8.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 80/100
Target weight
Confidence 58/100 implies 60–70% of full-conviction sizing. Recommend 2.5–4% portfolio allocation at current levels ($219.51) vs 4–6% at maximum conviction (confidence ≥75). Size up toward full allocation only if Q2 FY2027 results resolve the inventory and margin uncertainty favorably.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$215
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim 25–33% at $350+ or if forward P/E expands above 35x without corresponding estimate upgrade. Full exit triggers: two consecutive quarters of data center revenue growth below 15% YoY, or gross margin below 68%, or Q3 FY2027 guidance below $95B.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E17.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE101.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC126.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All NVDA indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
288
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 288 of 288 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on NVDA
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this NVDA report
What is the current NVDA stock rating?
NVIDIA Corporation is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full NVDA analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/NVDA/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for NVDA?
The latest report frames NVDA around $223 to $528. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the NVDA page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyNVDA · Fair value $377+71.9% · Confidence 80/100