NVR, Inc. (NVR)

NYSE: NVR · USD

$5,795

-10.45 (-0.2%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-11

Our latest published analysis: NVR rated Hold

NVR, Inc.'s published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$6,249 / share

Potential value

$7,492 / share

Upside to FV

+5.9%

from $5,795

Moat

7/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$15.7B
Revenue (ttm)	9.4B
Net income (ttm)	1B
EPS (ttm)	$364
Shares out	2.6M
P/E (trailing)	15.9x
P/E (forward)	14.8x
Volume	31,103
Beta	0.90

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 9.4B
Net income (ttm): 1B
EPS (ttm): $364
P/E (trailing): 15.9x
P/E (forward): 14.8x
Market cap: $15.7B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$8.95B	$10.53B	$9.52B	$10.52B	$10.32B	+3.6%
Gross profit	$2.20B	$2.88B	$2.48B	$2.69B	$2.37B	+1.9%
Operating income	$1.64B	$2.29B	$1.96B	$2.14B	$1.79B	+2.2%
Net income	$1.24B	$1.73B	$1.59B	$1.68B	$1.34B	+2.0%
EPS (diluted)	$320.48	$491.82	$463.31	$506.69	$436.55	+8.0%
EBITDA	$1.66B	$2.31B	$1.97B	$2.16B	$1.82B	+2.2%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$563.4M	$625.3M	$680.0M	$699.1M	$699.1M	+5.5%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	持有
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	持有
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	卖出
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	卖出
AMZN	Amazon.com Inc.	2.7T	20.5x	3.5x	11.9%	+11.8%	+12.2%	卖出
APTV	Aptiv PLC	9.1B	42.8x	0.4x	7.8%	+5.5%	-49.2%	买入

Base and Bull scenarios

Base50%

Price target

$6,249.35

+5.9% from spot

The Base case projects that single-family housing demand stabilizes following near-term delivery volume moderation. NVR maintains its structural cost discipline through lot optioning, holding operating margins steady while modest top-line growth resumes across core East Coast submarkets. Systematic share repurchases continue to compound per-share earnings faster than revenue. Under these assumptions, the Base scenario targets $6,249.35, reflecting 5.9% return from $5,899.16 (as of 2026-10-09) with an assigned probability of 50.0%. This trajectory would be disconfirmed if mortgage financing buydowns severely compress operating margins or if order cancellation rates surge.

Mortgage borrowing rates fluctuate within a manageable range, allowing home buyer order absorption to stabilize after near-term contraction.
Operating margins remain resilient above historical peer medians, supported by variable lot option fees.
Diluted share count declines steadily each fiscal year through ongoing share repurchases funded by operating cash flow.
Top-line revenue returns to steady single-digit growth following cyclical stabilization.

Bull25%

Price target

$7,491.93

+27.0% from spot

The Bull case envisions an accelerated easing of mortgage rates that revitalizes buyer purchasing power and unlocks strong pent-up housing demand. Delivery volumes rebound sharply across mature metropolitan markets, allowing NVR to realize operating leverage and expand operating margins toward previous cycle peaks. Robust free cash flow generation enables aggressive share repurchases, propelling per-share earnings growth into double digits. Under this path, the Bull scenario targets $7,491.93, yielding 27.0% return from $5,899.16 (as of 2026-10-09) with an assigned probability of 25.0%. Disconfirmation would occur if finished lot supply bottlenecks emerge or if developer option costs escalate rapidly.

Mortgage interest rates ease faster than anticipated, driving strong contract order absorption and reducing the need for customer financing incentives.
Consolidated operating margins expand toward peak historical levels due to strong operating leverage and solid pricing power.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($6,249.35). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.0%	$6,446	$6,759	$7,139	$7,610	$8,214
8.5%	$6,088	$6,346	$6,654	$7,028	$7,491
9.0%	$5,778	$5,995	$6,249	$6,552	$6,919
9.5%	$5,507	$5,691	$5,904	$6,154	$6,452
10.0%	$5,268	$5,425	$5,606	$5,816	$6,062

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E14.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E15.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE28.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC31.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All NVR indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

270

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 270 of 270 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000906163
Company name	NVR, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	62944T105
Earnings date	2026-10-22
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	6,300
Employees change	-700
Employees growth	-10%
Enterprise value	$15.3B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1980
In index	SP500
Industry	Residential Construction
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US62944T1051
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-11
Last earnings date	2026-10-22
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$15.3B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-28
Options	No
Price	$5,795.34
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Discretionary
SIC code	1531
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	NVR
U.S. state	Virginia
Website	https://www.nvrinc.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	15.98x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	14.71x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	15.3x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	13.59x
Earnings yield	6.28%
EV/Earnings	14.67x
EV/EBIT	10.96x
EV/EBITDA	10.76x
EV/FCF	14.68x
EV/Sales	1.63x
FCF / EV yield	6.81%
FCF yield	6.8%
Forward EV/Sales	1.74x
Forward P/E	16.57x
Forward P/S	1.74x
Graham number	3260.87383
Graham upside	-43.95%
Industry forward P/E	14.46x
Industry P/E	13.79x
Lynch fair value	$1,819.02
Lynch upside	-68.73%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	15.68x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	15.37x
P/B ratio	4.47x
P/E ratio	15.93x
P/FCF ratio	14.7x
P/OCF ratio	14.42x
P/S ratio	1.63x
Price / tangible book value	4.48x
Price/EBITDA ratio	10.78x
Sector forward P/E	24.24x
Sector P/E	30.29x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	14.88%
EBITDA margin	15.16%
Effective tax rate	23.77%
FCF margin	10.86%
Gross margin	21.1%
Operating margin	14.88%
Pretax margin	14.59%
Profit margin	11.12%
Profit per employee	$166,228
Profitable quarters	70
Profitable years	32
Revenue per employee	$1.5M
ROA	15.09%
ROA (5Y)	20.29%
ROCE	29.26%
ROE	28.3%
ROE (5Y)	41.28%
ROIC	31.41%
ROIC (5Y)	68.16%
SBC / revenue	0.68%
Tax / revenue	3.47%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-20.31%
EPS growth (Q)	-20.37%
EPS growth (QoQ)	6.54%
EPS growth 10Y	14%
EPS growth 3Y	-8.53%
EPS growth 5Y	3.36%
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	-13.45%
FCF growth 3Y	-15.69%
FCF growth 5Y	-0.28%
Gross profit growth	-20.71%
Gross profit growth (Q)	-19.75%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-8.84%
Gross profit growth 5Y	-0.73%
Net income growth	-26.94%
Net income growth (Q)	-27.45%
Net income growth (QoQ)	5.14%
Net income growth 3Y	-13.82%
Net income growth 5Y	-2.8%
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	-13.86%
OCF growth 10Y	15.32%
OCF growth 3Y	-15.49%
OCF growth 5Y	-0.17%
Operating income growth	-26.01%
Operating income growth (Q)	-24.29%
Operating income growth 3Y	-11.86%
Operating income growth 5Y	-2.63%
Revenue growth	-11.04%
Revenue growth (Q)	-8.25%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	3.27%
Revenue growth 10Y	5.27%
Revenue growth 3Y	-1.8%
Revenue growth 5Y	0.71%
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-20.2M
Depreciation and amortization	$26.2M
EBIT	$1.4B
EBITDA	$1.4B
EPS	$363.80
FCF per share	$395.73
Financing cash flow	$-1.7B
Free cash flow	$1B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$981M
Gross profit	$2B
Income taxes	$326.5M
Investing cash flow	$-17M
Net borrowing	$-5.4M
Net cash flow	$-632.7M
Net income	$1B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$1B
Operating income	$1.4B
Revenue	$9.4B
Stock-based compensation	$65.5M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	12.85
Book value per share	$1,299.03
Debt / EBITDA	0.71
Debt / equity	0.31
Debt / FCF	1.02
Interest coverage	51.69
Long-term assets	$1.6B
Long-term liabilities	$1.4B
Net cash (debt)	$23.6M
Net cash / market cap	0.15%
Net cash growth	-97.25%
Net debt / EBITDA	-0.02
Net debt / equity	-0.01
Net debt / FCF	-0.02
Piotroski F-Score	5
Property, plant and equipment	$230.6M
Shareholders' equity	$3.4B
Tangible book value	$3.4B
Tangible book value per share	$1,299.03
Total assets	$5.6B
Total cash	$1.1B
Total debt	$1.1B
Total liabilities	$2.1B
WACC	8.74%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.62
Current assets	$3.9B
Current liabilities	$777.9M
Current ratio	5.07
Inventory turnover	3.26
Net working capital	$2.1B
Quick ratio	1.52
Working capital	$3.2B
Working capital turnover	2.67

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	8.32%
Dividend yield	0%
Shareholder yield	8.32%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	278.71%
10Y return CAGR	14.25%
10Y total return	278.71%
150-day SMA	$6,294.36
15Y price change	785.27%
15Y return CAGR	15.65%
15Y total return	785.27%
1D price change	-0.18%
1M price change	-8.61%
1M total return	-8.61%
1W price change	-3.71%
1W total return	-3.71%
1Y price change	-22.62%
1Y return CAGR	-22.64%
1Y total return	-22.62%
20-day SMA	$5,910.06
200-day SMA	$6,555.63
20Y price change	916.9%
20Y return CAGR	12.3%
20Y total return	916.9%
3M price change	-8.81%
3M total return	-8.81%
3Y price change	6.94%
3Y return CAGR	2.26%
3Y total return	6.94%
50-day SMA	$6,129.59
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$8,200.00
52-week high date	2026-02-12
52-week low	$5,501.01
52-week low date	2026-05-15
5Y price change	19.54%
5Y return CAGR	3.63%
5Y total return	19.54%
6M price change	-11.21%
6M total return	-11.21%
All-time high	$9,964.77
All-time high date	2024-10-18
All-time low	$0.19
All-time low date	1990-12-18
Average true range (ATR)	$194.70
Average volume	47.3K
Beta (1Y)	0.49
Beta (2Y)	0.34
Beta (5Y)	0.9
Change from 52-week high	-29.33%
Change from 52-week low	5.35%
Change from all-time high	-42.24%
Change from all-time low	3,069,585.33%
Change from open	-0.93%
Day's gap	0.76%
Dollar volume	$180.3M
High price	$5,849.99
Low price	$5,749.25
Monthly RSI	38.7
Open price	$5,849.99
Position in 52-week range	45.75%
Premarket change	-0.34%
Premarket close	$5,806.02
Premarket price	$5,786.00
Premarket volume	40
Previous close	$5,806.02
Price vs 150-day SMA	-8.56%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-2.61%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-12.2%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-6.1%
Relative volume	0.66
RSI	41.84
Sharpe ratio	-0.92
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.04
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.09
Sortino ratio	-1.08
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.28
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.34
Volume	31.1K
Weekly RSI	36.72
YTD price change	-21.08%
YTD total return	-21.08%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	2.6M
Float percentage	98.34%
Shares change (QoQ)	-1.32%
Shares change (YoY)	-8.32%
Shares held by insiders	1.15%
Shares held by institutions	91.55%
Shares outstanding	2.6M
Short % of float	5.51%
Short % of shares	5.42%
Short ratio	3.5 days

Deeper analysis on NVR

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this NVR report

What is the latest published NVR stock rating?

NVR, Inc. is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full NVR analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11, lives at /stocks/NVR/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for NVR?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-11 gives NVR a fair value of USD 6,249 and a potential value of USD 7,492. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the NVR page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-11). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldNVR · Fair value $6,249+5.9%

Read full analysis →

NVR, Inc. (NVR)

Our latest published analysis: NVR rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · NVR

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All NVR indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on NVR

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	6.0
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	7.5
Profitability	7.5
Revenue Growth	2.5
Risk Assessment	7.0
Competitive Moat	7.0
Earnings Quality	4.5
Capital Efficiency	8.5