PulteGroup Inc. (PHM)

NYSE: PHM · USD

$120

-2.06 (-1.7%)· Recorded snapshot

英文原文ZH

翻译期间显示英文原文

此报告尚未翻译。翻译队列赶上后请在几分钟内刷新。

StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-08

Our latest published analysis: PHM rated Buy

PulteGroup Inc.'s published Buy conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$132 / share

Potential value

$185 / share

Upside to FV

+16.1%

from $120

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$21.6B
Revenue (ttm)	16B
Net income (ttm)	1.8B
EPS (ttm)	$9.36
Shares out	184.1M
P/E (trailing)	12.8x
P/E (forward)	11.2x
Dividend	$1.04 (0.87%)
Volume	1,736,772
Beta	1.16

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 16B
Net income (ttm): 1.8B
EPS (ttm): $9.36
P/E (trailing): 12.8x
P/E (forward): 11.2x
Market cap: $21.6B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$13.74B	$16.00B	$16.06B	$17.95B	$17.31B	+6.0%
Gross profit	$3.78B	$4.83B	$29.3K	$5.22B	$4.57B	+4.9%
Operating income	$2.64B	$3.45B	$-1.31B	$4.01B	$2.91B	+2.5%
Net income	$1.95B	$2.62B	$2.60B	$3.08B	$2.22B	+3.3%
EPS (diluted)	$7.43	$11.01	$11.72	$14.69	$11.12	+10.6%
EBITDA	$2.71B	$3.52B	$-1.23B	$4.10B	$3.02B	+2.8%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.21B	$1.38B	$1.31B	$1.32B	$1.57B	+6.8%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	持有
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	持有
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	卖出
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	卖出
AMZN	Amazon.com Inc.	2.7T	20.5x	3.5x	11.9%	+11.8%	+12.2%	卖出
APTV	Aptiv PLC	9.1B	42.8x	0.4x	7.8%	+5.5%	-49.2%	买入

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$131.66

+16.1% from spot

The base scenario reflects PulteGroup's modal operational trajectory amidst normalized cyclical conditions. Housing demand remains stable as entry-level and move-up buyers adapt to prevailing financing environments, while active adult demand provides high-margin ballast. Management maintains rigorous discipline by matching housing starts to sales velocity, containing overhead expenses, and deploying free cash flow toward steady share buybacks and dividends. These operating fundamentals support a base target of $131.66, carrying a probability of 55.0% and an implied return of 16.1% compared to $113.42 (as of 2026-10-08).

Closing gross margins remain durable within management's guided range
Community count expands at a planned low-single-digit annual pace with steady absorption rates
Housing starts continue to match sales velocity, preserving disciplined working capital conversion
Free cash flow conversion remains robust, supporting ongoing share repurchases and balance sheet liquidity

Bull20%

Price target

$185.38

+63.4% from spot

In the bull scenario, moderating interest rates trigger a broad residential housing recovery, unlocking substantial pent-up household formation demand. PulteGroup leverages its local market density and premier Del Webb brand to drive absorption paces above historical averages while expanding community count. Pricing power strengthens, reducing sales incentives and lifting closing gross margins, while operational overhead achieves substantial operating leverage. Free cash flow generation accelerates, fueling aggressive share count reduction and compound earnings growth, supporting a bull target of $185.38 with an estimated likelihood of 20.0% and an implied return of 63.4% relative to $113.42 (as of 2026-10-08).

Mortgage rate moderation stimulates broad-based housing absorption across entry-level and move-up cohorts
Closing gross margins expand above guided boundaries as incentive loads and financing buydowns diminish
Community count expansion exceeds target rates alongside robust build-to-order delivery execution
Share repurchase execution remains aggressive, driving enhanced per-share cash flow and earnings growth

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($131.66). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.1%	$141	$144	$147	$151	$155
8.6%	$134	$136	$139	$142	$145
9.1%	$127	$129	$132	$134	$137
9.6%	$122	$124	$126	$128	$130
10.1%	$117	$119	$120	$122	$124

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E11.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E11.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE13.9

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC13.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All PHM indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

287

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 287 of 287 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000822416
Company name	PulteGroup, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	745867101
Earnings date	2026-10-22
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	6,506
Employees change	-287
Employees growth	-4.22%
Enterprise value	$23.1B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1950
In index	SP500
Industry	Residential Construction
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US7458671010
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-04
Last earnings date	2026-10-22
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2005-09-02
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$22B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-28
Options	Yes
Price	$119.57
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Discretionary
SIC code	1531
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	PHM
U.S. state	Georgia
Website	https://pultegroupinc.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	12.35x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	9.13x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	9.63x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	7.84x
Earnings yield	7.83%
EV/Earnings	12.74x
EV/EBIT	9.17x
EV/EBITDA	8.77x
EV/FCF	17.62x
EV/Sales	1.43x
FCF / EV yield	5.67%
FCF yield	5.95%
Forward EV/Sales	1.45x
Forward P/E	12.74x
Forward P/S	1.39x
Graham number	122.14219
Graham upside	2.95%
Industry forward P/E	14.44x
Industry P/E	13.78x
Lynch fair value	$46.80
Lynch upside	-60.55%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	17.58x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	16.16x
P/B ratio	1.72x
P/E ratio	12.77x
P/FCF ratio	16.82x
P/OCF ratio	15.51x
P/S ratio	1.37x
PEG ratio	2.04x
Price / tangible book value	1.68x
Price/EBITDA ratio	8.37x
Sector forward P/E	24.39x
Sector P/E	30.5x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	15.61%
EBITDA margin	16.33%
Effective tax rate	23.63%
FCF margin	8.13%
Gross margin	25.32%
Operating margin	15.61%
Pretax margin	14.72%
Profit margin	11.24%
Profit per employee	$276,105
Profitable quarters	58
Profitable years	14
Revenue per employee	$2.5M
ROA	8.58%
ROA (5Y)	13.44%
ROCE	15.59%
ROE	13.86%
ROE (5Y)	26.33%
ROIC	13.46%
ROIC (5Y)	23.75%
SBC / revenue	0.35%
Tax / revenue	3.48%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-28.04%
EPS growth (Q)	-14.53%
EPS growth (QoQ)	2.02%
EPS growth 10Y	19.4%
EPS growth 3Y	-8.74%
EPS growth 5Y	7.68%
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	-16.32%
FCF growth (Q)	-32.85%
FCF growth 3Y	-22.49%
FCF growth 5Y	5.31%
Gross profit growth	-16.51%
Gross profit growth (Q)	-12.68%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-6.61%
Gross profit growth 5Y	3.53%
Net income growth	-31.71%
Net income growth (Q)	-18.8%
Net income growth (QoQ)	0.79%
Net income growth 3Y	-13.35%
Net income growth 5Y	1.03%
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	-15.57%
OCF growth (Q)	-32.17%
OCF growth (QoQ)	2,598.75%
OCF growth 3Y	-21.23%
OCF growth 5Y	5.73%
Operating income growth	-28%
Operating income growth (Q)	-18.75%
Operating income growth 3Y	-11.07%
Operating income growth 5Y	2.14%
Revenue growth	-9.35%
Revenue growth (Q)	-9.78%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-0.23%
Revenue growth 10Y	8.24%
Revenue growth 3Y	-1.75%
Revenue growth 5Y	4.6%
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-109.5M
Depreciation and amortization	$113.6M
EBIT	$2.5B
EBITDA	$2.6B
EPS	$9.36
FCF per share	$7.05
Financing cash flow	$-1.5B
Free cash flow	$1.3B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.2B
Gross profit	$4B
Income taxes	$555.9M
Investing cash flow	$-25.2M
Net borrowing	$145.8M
Net cash flow	$-71.5M
Net income	$1.8B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$1.4B
Operating income	$2.5B
Revenue	$16B
Stock-based compensation	$56.3M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	5.66
Book value per share	$70.83
Debt / EBITDA	0.91
Debt / equity	0.18
Debt / FCF	1.86
Goodwill	$40.4M
Interest coverage	4,323.36
Long-term assets	$1.1B
Long-term liabilities	$2.9B
Net cash (debt)	$-1B
Net cash / market cap	-4.78%
Net debt / EBITDA	0.4
Net debt / equity	0.08
Net debt / FCF	0.8
Piotroski F-Score	4
Property, plant and equipment	$107.8M
Shareholders' equity	$13.1B
Tangible book value	$13B
Tangible book value per share	$70.50
Total assets	$18.5B
Total cash	$1.4B
Total debt	$2.4B
Total liabilities	$5.4B
WACC	9.6%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.88
Current assets	$17.3B
Current liabilities	$2.5B
Current ratio	6.99
Inventory turnover	0.85
Net working capital	$13.6B
Quick ratio	0.59
Working capital	$14.9B
Working capital turnover	1.11

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	5.08%
Dividend growth	18.18%
Dividend growth (10Y)	11.19%
Dividend growth (3Y)	17.57%
Dividend growth (5Y)	13.18%
Dividend growth years	8
Dividend payment date	2026-10-02
Dividend payment years	14
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$1.04
Dividend yield	0.87%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-15
FCF payout ratio	14.74%
Last dividend	$0.26
Payout ratio	11.11%
Shareholder yield	5.95%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	557.34%
10Y return CAGR	22.11%
10Y total return	636.57%
150-day SMA	$122.25
15Y price change	2,110.17%
15Y return CAGR	24.28%
15Y total return	2,506.81%
1D price change	-1.69%
1M price change	-0.23%
1M total return	-0.23%
1W price change	5.92%
1W total return	5.92%
1Y price change	-0.61%
1Y return CAGR	0.24%
1Y total return	0.24%
20-day SMA	$115.01
200-day SMA	$124.10
20Y price change	278.15%
20Y return CAGR	7.89%
20Y total return	356.45%
3M price change	-8.44%
3M total return	-8.24%
3Y price change	66.25%
3Y return CAGR	19.38%
3Y total return	70.15%
50-day SMA	$119.46
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$144.50
52-week high date	2026-02-17
52-week low	$107.16
52-week low date	2026-10-14
5Y price change	145.27%
5Y return CAGR	20.79%
5Y total return	157.06%
6M price change	-6.79%
6M total return	-6.39%
All-time high	$149.47
All-time high date	2024-10-21
All-time low	$0.01
All-time low date	1974-12-23
Average true range (ATR)	$3.69
Average volume	2.2M
Beta (1Y)	0.58
Beta (2Y)	0.65
Beta (5Y)	1.16
Change from 52-week high	-17.25%
Change from 52-week low	11.59%
Change from all-time high	-20%
Change from all-time low	1,839,438.46%
Change from open	-1.79%
Day's gap	0.1%
Dollar volume	$207.7M
High price	$123.03
Low price	$118.58
Monthly RSI	51.28
Open price	$121.75
Position in 52-week range	22.25%
Premarket change	-0.01%
Premarket close	$121.63
Premarket price	$121.62
Premarket volume	281
Previous close	$121.63
Price vs 150-day SMA	-2.19%
Price vs 20-day SMA	3.96%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-3.65%
Price vs 50-day SMA	0.1%
Relative volume	0.81
RSI	54.83
Sharpe ratio	0.05
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.6
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.58
Sortino ratio	0.27
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.12
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.05
Volume	1.7M
Weekly RSI	47.82
YTD price change	1.97%
YTD total return	2.63%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	182.6M
Float percentage	99.21%
Shares change (QoQ)	-1.44%
Shares change (YoY)	-5.08%
Shares held by insiders	0.64%
Shares held by institutions	99.45%
Shares outstanding	184.1M
Short % of float	4.5%
Short % of shares	4.46%
Short ratio	5 days

Deeper analysis on PHM

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this PHM report

What is the latest published PHM stock rating?

PulteGroup Inc. is shown with Buy in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-08. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full PHM analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-08, lives at /stocks/PHM/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for PHM?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-08 gives PHM a fair value of USD 132 and a potential value of USD 185. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the PHM page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-08). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

BuyPHM · Fair value $132+16.1%

Read full analysis →

PulteGroup Inc. (PHM)

Our latest published analysis: PHM rated Buy

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · PHM

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All PHM indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on PHM

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	7.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	8.5
Profitability	5.5
Revenue Growth	2.5
Risk Assessment	8.0
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	4.5
Capital Efficiency	7.5