Phillips 66 (PSX)

NYSE: PSX · USD

$274

+5.02 (+1.9%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: PSX rated Reduce

Phillips 66's published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$219 / share

Potential value

$411 / share

Upside to FV

-17.3%

from $274

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$105.6B
Revenue (ttm)	170.7B
Net income (ttm)	12.6B
EPS (ttm)	$31.2
Shares out	399M
P/E (trailing)	8.8x
P/E (forward)	9.7x
Dividend	$5.08 (1.85%)
Volume	2,594,702
Beta	0.70

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 170.7B
Net income (ttm): 12.6B
EPS (ttm): $31.2
P/E (trailing): 8.8x
P/E (forward): 9.7x
Market cap: $105.6B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$111.48B	$169.99B	$147.40B	$143.15B	$132.38B	+4.4%
Gross profit	$3.38B	$12.77B	$11.29B	$4.86B	$6.49B	+17.7%
Operating income	$2.32B	$15.26B	$10.37B	$3.58B	$6.46B	+29.2%
Net income	$1.32B	$11.02B	$7.02B	$2.12B	$4.40B	+35.2%
EPS (diluted)	$2.97	$23.27	$15.48	$4.99	$10.79	+38.1%
EBITDA	$3.95B	$16.91B	$12.37B	$5.99B	$9.76B	+25.4%
R&D	$47.0M	$42.0M	$27.0M	$15.0M	$6.0M	-40.2%
SG&A	$1.74B	$2.17B	$2.53B	$2.81B	$2.44B	+8.7%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	持有
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	持有
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	卖出
BKR	Baker Hughes Company	54.3B	18.8x	1.9x	11.7%	+7.0%	+20.1%	卖出
COP	ConocoPhillips	179B	19.8x	2.8x	11.6%	+16.8%	+73.8%	持有
CVX	Chevron Corporation	448.9B	22.0x	2.2x	8.2%	+12.6%	+54.1%	减持

Base and Bull scenarios

Base50%

Price target

$218.75

-17.3% from spot

Under the base scenario, shares reprice toward Fair value $218.75, representing -17.3% return with 50.0% probability relative to $264.58 (as of 2026-10-02). Refining margins normalize from cyclical peaks toward mid-cycle averages as global refinery supply balances replenish. The midstream segment executes organic optimization projects to deliver steady fee-based EBITDA growth, providing cash flow stability that supports maintenance capital expenditures and dividend commitments. Disconfirmation would occur if refining crack spreads collapse to cyclical trough levels or if upstream drilling slowdowns stall midstream throughput.

Refining crack spreads experience an orderly descent from cyclical peaks toward sustainable mid-cycle margins
Midstream logistics assets achieve affirmed multi-year EBITDA targets through organic project execution
Marketing & Specialties maintains wholesale distribution placement and steady commercial cash conversion
Operating cash flow comfortably covers sustaining capital reinvestment and foundational dividend obligations

Bull20%

Price target

$411.42

+55.5% from spot

Under the bull scenario, shares converge toward Potential value $411.42, representing 55.5% return with 20.0% probability. Global refining supply constraints and persistent product inventory deficits sustain refining crack spreads well above historical mid-cycle averages. Meanwhile, upstream producer volumes accelerate midstream logistics throughput beyond management targets, and disciplined capital allocation enables aggressive share repurchases that enhance per-share cash flow. Disconfirmation would occur if international refining additions trigger product surpluses or if domestic fuel demand contracts sharply.

Refining crack spreads sustain well above historical mid-cycle averages due to structural global refining closures and low inventory levels
Midstream pipeline and terminal throughput exceeds baseline targets as producer volumes fill system capacity
Marketing & Specialties captures premium retail and commercial margins across domestic and international networks
Accelerated discretionary share repurchases drive rapid diluted share count retirement

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($218.75). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.5%	1.8%	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%
7.4%	$233	$237	$242	$248	$254
7.9%	$221	$225	$229	$234	$238
8.4%	$211	$215	$219	$222	$226
8.9%	$203	$205	$208	$211	$215
9.4%	$195	$197	$200	$202	$205

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E9.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E14.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE23.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC24.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All PSX indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

267

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 267 of 267 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001534701
Company name	Phillips 66
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	718546104
Earnings date	2026-10-28
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	12,600
Employees change	-600
Employees growth	-4.55%
Enterprise value	$125.6B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1875
In index	SP500
Industry	Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
IPO date	2012-05-01
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US7185461040
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-20
Last earnings date	2026-10-28
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$109.2B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-02-03
Options	Yes
Price	$273.55
Price currency	USD
Sector	Energy
SIC code	2911
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	PSX
U.S. state	Texas
Website	https://www.phillips66.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	10.34x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	15.6x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	17.55x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	14.07x
Earnings yield	11.39%
EV/Earnings	10x
EV/EBIT	8.49x
EV/EBITDA	7.35x
EV/FCF	10.18x
EV/Sales	0.74x
FCF / EV yield	9.83%
FCF yield	11.31%
Forward EV/Sales	0.77x
Forward P/E	7.63x
Forward P/S	0.67x
Graham number	235.29145
Graham upside	-14.1%
Industry forward P/E	6.12x
Industry P/E	12.2x
Lynch fair value	$564.76
Lynch upside	106.17%
P/B ratio	3.4x
P/E ratio	8.78x
P/FCF ratio	8.84x
P/OCF ratio	7.27x
P/S ratio	0.64x
PEG ratio	0.19x
Price / tangible book value	3.75x
Price/EBITDA ratio	6.38x
Sector forward P/E	10.06x
Sector P/E	15.08x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	8.68%
EBITDA margin	10.03%
Effective tax rate	19.81%
FCF margin	7.24%
Gross margin	16.31%
Operating margin	8.68%
Pretax margin	9.25%
Profit margin	7.37%
Profit per employee	$997,937
Profitable quarters	21
Profitable years	5
Revenue per employee	$13.5M
ROA	6.04%
ROA (5Y)	4.43%
ROCE	12%
ROE	23.45%
ROE (5Y)	18.59%
ROIC	24.15%
ROIC (5Y)	8.89%
Tax / revenue	1.83%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	752.3%
EPS growth (Q)	4,300%
EPS growth (QoQ)	47.36%
EPS growth 10Y	23.36%
EPS growth 3Y	23.48%
EPS growth quarters	1
EPS growth years	1
FCF growth	814.73%
FCF growth (Q)	936.26%
FCF growth (QoQ)	1.04%
FCF growth 3Y	18.88%
FCF growth 5Y	31.97%
Gross profit growth	95.39%
Gross profit growth (Q)	148.88%
Gross profit growth 3Y	11.6%
Gross profit growth 5Y	30.76%
Net income growth	735.62%
Net income growth (Q)	4,122.56%
Net income growth (QoQ)	46.1%
Net income growth 3Y	18.12%
Net income growth quarters	1
Net income growth years	1
OCF growth	340.96%
OCF growth (Q)	518.08%
OCF growth (QoQ)	0.3%
OCF growth 10Y	14.76%
OCF growth 3Y	16.16%
OCF growth 5Y	25.35%
Operating income growth	398.37%
Operating income growth (Q)	387.41%
Operating income growth 3Y	20.33%
Revenue growth	29.33%
Revenue growth (Q)	49.23%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	0.98%
Revenue growth 10Y	9.46%
Revenue growth 3Y	4.53%
Revenue growth 5Y	12.37%
Revenue growth quarters	3
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-2.7B
Depreciation and amortization	$2.3B
EBIT	$14.8B
EBITDA	$17.1B
EPS	$31.16
FCF per share	$30.97
Financing cash flow	$-8.6B
Free cash flow	$12.4B
Gross profit	$27.8B
Income taxes	$3.1B
Investing cash flow	$-2.5B
Net borrowing	$-3.4B
Net cash flow	$3.9B
Net income	$12.6B
Operating income	$14.8B
Revenue	$170.7B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$78.96
Debt / EBITDA	1.15
Debt / equity	0.63
Debt / FCF	1.66
Interest coverage	50.19
Net cash (debt)	$-16.5B
Net cash / market cap	-15.06%
Net debt / EBITDA	0.96
Net debt / equity	0.5
Net debt / FCF	1.33
Piotroski F-Score	7
Shareholders' equity	$32.7B
Tangible book value	$29.1B
Tangible book value per share	$72.97
Total cash	$4.1B
Total debt	$20.6B
WACC	7.01%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.93
Current ratio	1.32
Inventory turnover	22.99
Quick ratio	0.86
Working capital	$5.9B

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	1.2%
Dividend growth	8.21%
Dividend growth (10Y)	7.69%
Dividend growth (3Y)	6.96%
Dividend growth (5Y)	7.26%
Dividend growth years	13
Dividend payment date	2026-12-01
Dividend payment years	15
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$5.08
Dividend yield	1.85%
Ex-dividend date	2026-11-17
FCF payout ratio	32.08%
Last dividend	$1.33
Payout ratio	29.35%
Shareholder yield	3.06%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	243.52%
10Y return CAGR	17.44%
10Y total return	399.04%
150-day SMA	$211.05
1D price change	1.87%
1M price change	7.44%
1M total return	7.44%
1W price change	-5.58%
1W total return	-5.58%
1Y price change	102.91%
1Y return CAGR	109.02%
1Y total return	108.92%
20-day SMA	$281.26
200-day SMA	$197.53
3M price change	32.22%
3M total return	32.92%
3Y price change	147.71%
3Y return CAGR	39.83%
3Y total return	173.46%
50-day SMA	$264.79
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$299.39
52-week high date	2026-10-19
52-week low	$127.16
52-week low date	2025-12-29
5Y price change	255.24%
5Y return CAGR	33.63%
5Y total return	325.95%
6M price change	67.45%
6M total return	69.56%
All-time high	$299.39
All-time high date	2026-10-19
All-time low	$28.75
All-time low date	2012-05-08
Average true range (ATR)	$9.84
Average volume	2.3M
Beta (1Y)	-1.05
Beta (2Y)	0.55
Beta (5Y)	0.7
Change from 52-week high	-8.63%
Change from 52-week low	115.12%
Change from all-time high	-8.22%
Change from all-time low	855.76%
Change from open	0.76%
Day's gap	1.11%
Dollar volume	$709.8M
High price	$275.00
Low price	$267.41
Monthly RSI	81.93
Open price	$271.50
Position in 52-week range	80.9%
Premarket change	0.18%
Premarket close	$268.53
Premarket price	$269.00
Premarket volume	7.7K
Previous close	$268.53
Price vs 150-day SMA	30.2%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-2.3%
Price vs 200-day SMA	39.11%
Price vs 50-day SMA	3.77%
Relative volume	1.14
RSI	49.39
Sharpe ratio	2.32
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.08
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.88
Sortino ratio	3.9
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.76
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.44
Volume	2.6M
Weekly RSI	67.88
YTD price change	112.94%
YTD total return	117.4%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	398.1M
Float percentage	99.77%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.91%
Shares change (YoY)	-1.2%
Shares held by insiders	0.13%
Shares held by institutions	80.28%
Shares outstanding	399M
Short % of float	1.38%
Short % of shares	1.38%
Short ratio	1.6 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	458

Deeper analysis on PSX

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this PSX report

What is the latest published PSX stock rating?

Phillips 66 is shown with Reduce in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full PSX analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/PSX/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for PSX?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives PSX a fair value of USD 219 and a potential value of USD 411. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the PSX page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

ReducePSX · Fair value $219-17.3%

Read full analysis →

Phillips 66 (PSX)

Our latest published analysis: PSX rated Reduce

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · PSX

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All PSX indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on PSX

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	3.0
Management	7.5
Balance Sheet	6.0
Profitability	6.0
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	7.5
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	7.5
Capital Efficiency	3.5