Base55%
Price target
$8.52
-40.5% from spot
In the base scenario, Rivian executes its planned manufacturing transition in Normal, Illinois, scaling from a single shift to two shifts by late Q3 to achieve full-year FY2026 vehicle deliveries of 65,000 to 70,000 units. Second-half delivery concentration of 42,400 to 47,400 units allows plant-level fixed cost leverage to absorb the transitory $100M quarterly launch drag, enabling automotive gross profit to reach breakeven at 2026 exit rate. Revenue scales 57.95% in FY2027 toward $11,732,161,100 consensus estimates. Transformation capex of $1.7B-$1.8B in FY2026 moderates steadily as tooling completes, allowing operating margins to inflect positive by FY2029 and reach steady-state profitability in FY2030. Contractual RVRS liabilities with Chase Bank remain immaterial, and terminal value is established at 1.10x EV/revenue.
- FY2026 vehicle deliveries achieve management guidance of 65,000 to 70,000 units supported by 42,400 to 47,400 units delivered in the second half.
- Consolidated revenue reaches $7,434,378,000 in FY2026 and expands by 57.95% to $11,742,882,066 in FY2027, aligned with consensus of $11,732,161,100.
- Operating margin progresses from negative levels in FY2026 and FY2027 to positive territory by FY2029 and steady-state profitability in FY2030 as R2 overhead is absorbed.
- Capex peaks at $1.7B-$1.8B in FY2026 matching FY2025 levels of $1,710,000,000, before fading to maintenance reinvestment of 35% of NOPAT by FY2030.
- Terminal EV/Revenue multiple of 1.10x and terminal P/E multiple of 10.0x applied under a 12.4172% WACC discount rate.
Bull20%
Price target
$12.44
-13.2% from spot
In the bull scenario, consumer demand and reservation-to-order conversion on the R2 Launch Edition substantially outperform expectations, driving FY2026 deliveries above the 70,000-unit guidance ceiling. Rapid fixed cost absorption in Normal eliminates launch-related freight and tooling premiums ahead of schedule, pushing automotive gross margin well into positive territory by year-end. Delivery volume expansion propels FY2027 revenue toward the high-end analyst estimate of $17,743,400,000. Software and services revenue expands from its $1,557,000,000 FY2025 base via paid autonomy features following hands-off Level 3 deployment in 2027. Operating margins inflect rapidly toward mid-single digits, curbing cash burn and eliminating the need for dilutive equity financing.
- R2 platform ramp executes ahead of schedule, with FY2026 deliveries exceeding the 70,000-unit guidance ceiling.
- FY2027 revenue accelerates toward the optimistic analyst estimate of $17,743,400,000.
- Automotive gross profit inflects positive ahead of Q4 2026 exit rate, eliminating the transitory $100M quarterly launch drag.
- High-margin software and services revenue expands substantially beyond FY2025 levels of $1,557,000,000 with Level 3 autonomy deployment in 2027.
- Terminal EV/Revenue multiple expands to premium pure-play EV levels reflecting superior software attachment and long-term fleet growth.
