可选产品分析
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Bull: The off-price value proposition captures massive market share from department stores, accelerating top-line growth and expanding margins above historical averages.
Severe Margin Compression: Freight and supply chain costs compress operating margins structurally below historical averages, breaking the stable 12.26% margin thesis.
Ross Stores is a highly profitable off-price retailer with a long runway for store expansion, strong ROIC, and excellent cash conversion. However, current valuation multiples demand flawless execution and leave limited margin of safety. The business is fundamentally exceptional but priced beyond perfection.
Ross Stores is a highly profitable off-price retailer with a long runway for store expansion, strong ROIC, and excellent cash conversion. However, current demand flawless execution and leave limited . The business is fundamentally exceptional but priced beyond perfection.
Scale economies in inventory sourcing driving high ROIC (19.9%)
Off-price value proposition capturing trade-down retail traffic
Consumers trading down to off-price retail during economic softening drives structural market share gains.
Sell. Current valuation implies ~27% downside to our $158.93 mid-point due to required multiple normalization.
Ross Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS brands in the United States. The company offers designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home-fashioned products for the entire family. It sells its products to middle income households and households with lower to more moderate incomes. Ross Stores, Inc. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Dublin, California.
Macroeconomic pressure severely impacts the discretionary spending power of the core lower-to-middle income demographic. Compounded by supply chain and freight cost inflation, operating margins compress structurally below 12.26%, destroying the current high-multiple premium.
Persistent inflation limits consumer spend. Rising freight and supply chain costs compress margins, causing an aggressive market repricing.
Freight and supply chain costs compress operating margins structurally below historical averages, breaking the stable 12.26% margin thesis.
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
Persistent contraction in top-line growth indicates weakening consumer demand among core demographic shoppers and reduced store foot traffic, undermining the retailer's off-price store expansion strategy and eroding fixed-cost operating leverage across its retail distribution network.
当前：7.7% for the period ended 2026-01-31
触发警报：Falls below 0.0% for two consecutive quarters
Scale economies in inventory sourcing driving high ROIC (19.9%)
Off-price value proposition capturing trade-down retail traffic
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted , discount each year's earnings at , then add a Gordon-growth .
Unavailable
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($151.63). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $1.9B after capex $815.0M, with terminal value at 61.6% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.
The off-price value proposition captures massive market share from department stores, accelerating top-line growth and expanding margins above historical averages.
If near-term revenue growth misses the 7.8% target, expect immediate multiple contraction. If margins slip below 12.26%, the $158.93 mid-point will require downward revision.
If near-term revenue growth misses the 7.8% target, expect immediate multiple contraction. If margins slip below 12.26%, the $158.93 mid-point will require downward revision.
If near-term revenue growth misses the 7.8% target, expect immediate multiple contraction. If margins slip below 12.26%, the $158.93 mid-point will require downward revision.
If near-term revenue growth misses the 7.8% target, expect immediate multiple contraction. If margins slip below 12.26%, the $158.93 mid-point will require downward revision.
Warning level: Falls below 0.0% for two consecutive quarters. Persistent contraction in top-line growth indicates weakening consumer demand among core demographic shoppers and reduced store foot traffic, undermining the retailer's off-price store expansion strategy and eroding fixed-cost operating leverage across its retail distribution network.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| 营业收入 | 22,750,559,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | 16,447,256,000 |
| 毛利 | 6,303,303,000 |
| 营业费用 | 3,595,946,000 |
| 营业利润 | 2,707,357,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -562,313,000 |
| 净利润 | 2,145,044,000 |
| 总资产 | 15,548,737,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | 4,594,392,000 |
| 流动资产 | 7,640,097,000 |
| 总负债 | 9,361,294,000 |
| 流动负债 | 4,827,180,000 |
| 股东权益 | 6,187,443,000 |
2026-05-20分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-31 | 189.2亿 | 26.9亿 | 17.2亿 | 17.4亿 | 11.8亿 | 5.6亿 | 3.6亿 | 1.3亿 | 7.1亿 | 4.1亿 | -6500万 | — | — | — | — | 49.2亿 | 56.2亿 | 12.3% | — | 6.3% | — |
| 2023-01-31 | 187亿 | 24.6亿 | 15.1亿 | 16.9亿 | 10.4亿 | 6.5亿 | 3.9亿 | 1.2亿 | 10亿 | 4.3亿 | 0 | — | — | — | — | 45.5亿 | 57.1亿 | 10.6% | — | 8.0% | — |
| 2024-01-31 | 203.8亿 | 29.7亿 | 18.7亿 | 25.1亿 | 17.5亿 | 7.6亿 | 4.2亿 | 1.5亿 | 10亿 | 4.5亿 | 0 | — | — | — | — | 48.7亿 | 57.5亿 | 11.3% | — | 8.7% | — |
| 2025-01-31 | 211.3亿 | 32.7亿 | 20.9亿 | 23.6亿 | 16.4亿 | 7.2亿 | 4.5亿 | 1.6亿 | 11.4亿 | 4.9亿 | -2.5亿 | — | — | — | — | 47.3亿 | 56.8亿 | 12.2% | — | 9.4% | — |
| 2026-01-31 | 227.5亿 | 33.9亿 | 21.5亿 | 30.3亿 | 22.1亿 | 8.2亿 | 5.1亿 | 1.8亿 | 11.3亿 | 5.3亿 | -7亿 | — | — | — | — | 45.9亿 | 52.1亿 | 11.9% | — | — | — |
ROST trades at 26.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 26.4x; EV/EBITDA of 21.5x against a peer median of 18.5x; 6 peers.
Investment phase active. Reinvestment rate at 28.3% and Capex at 1.6x D&A confirm ongoing physical footprint and supply chain capacity expansion.
Consumers trading down to off-price retail during economic softening drives structural market share gains.
Severe inflation destroying discretionary spend for lower-income tiers offsets trade-down benefits.
Investment phase active. Reinvestment rate at 28.3% and Capex at 1.6x D&A confirm ongoing physical footprint and supply chain capacity expansion.
Avoid allocation.
Liquidate existing holdings. The 34% premium to our intrinsic value and the clustering of primary models around $151-$152 heavily skew the risk-reward downward.
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
The intrinsic valuation models cluster tightly around $151-$152, suggesting the market's $217 price tag is driven by unsustainable multiple expansion.
Sell. Our $158.93 mid-point represents a 27% downside. The gap relative to aggressive internal valuation anchors (~$241) is driven entirely by our normalization of the terminal multiple to 20x and proper accounting for the 1.6x Capex/D&A reinvestment drag.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Market rerates the stock abruptly from current peak multiples (26.5x forward) to our normalized 20x terminal target, realizing immediate downside.
Capex to D&A drops below 1.1x as market saturation limits new store expansion, breaking the 5-year growth path.
A sharp reduction in capital efficiency signals inventory buildup, aggressive promotional markdowns, or cost deleverage across selling and administrative expenses, which impairs economic value creation and threatens premium return multiples over the cost of capital.
当前：20.0% as of the report's 2026-05-20 analysis date
触发警报：Drops below 15.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
A drop in cash flow conversion relative to accounting profits highlights working capital absorption or aggressive revenue recognition, reducing available free cash to fund store expansion programs, share buybacks, and dividend distributions.
当前：1.411 as of the report's 2026-05-20 analysis date
触发警报：Declines below 1.00x over any trailing twelve-month period
Severe supply chain inflation, freight increases, or wage pressures that compress margins reduce operating profitability, undermining the structural cost advantages of the off-price retail model and eroding the premium multiple assigned to earnings.
当前：11.9% for the period ended 2026-01-31
触发警报：Falls below 11.0% across two consecutive fiscal quarters
Higher merchandise procurement costs or elevated product markdowns squeeze gross profits, constraining merchandising flexibility and exposing the company to severe margin erosion when competing against traditional department stores and digital retail channels.
当前：27.7% for the period ended 2026-01-31
触发警报：Declines below 26.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Growth fades smoothly from 7.86% to 4.5% terminal, margins hold stable at 12.26%, and the current elevated multiple normalizes to 20x.
Warning level: Drops below 15.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. A sharp reduction in capital efficiency signals inventory buildup, aggressive promotional markdowns, or cost deleverage across selling and administrative expenses, which impairs economic value creation and threatens premium return multiples over the cost of capital.
Warning level: Declines below 1.00x over any trailing twelve-month period. A drop in cash flow conversion relative to accounting profits highlights working capital absorption or aggressive revenue recognition, reducing available free cash to fund store expansion programs, share buybacks, and dividend distributions.
Warning level: Falls below 11.0% across two consecutive fiscal quarters. Severe supply chain inflation, freight increases, or wage pressures that compress margins reduce operating profitability, undermining the structural cost advantages of the off-price retail model and eroding the premium multiple assigned to earnings.
Warning level: Declines below 26.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Higher merchandise procurement costs or elevated product markdowns squeeze gross profits, constraining merchandising flexibility and exposing the company to severe margin erosion when competing against traditional department stores and digital retail channels.
| 利润率 |
|---|
| ROST | Ross Stores Inc. | $70.4B | 26.5x | 3.1x | 21.5x | — | — |
| TJX | The TJX Companies Inc. | 26.5x | 2.8x | 20.7x | 59.1% | 13.3% | |
| LULU | Lululemon Athletica Inc. | 9.0x | 1.3x | 5.1x | 34.0% | 22.3% | |
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | 26.4x | 3.8x | 18.5x | 24.3% | 13.1% | |
| TSLA | Tesla Inc. | 161.0x | 15.5x | 134.3x | 4.9% | 4.2% | |
| HD | The Home Depot Inc. | 18.7x | 1.8x | 14.6x | 145.5% | 10.1% |
