Republic Services, Inc. (RSG)

Under the bull scenario, joint-venture renewable natural gas (RNG) and polymer recovery facilities ramp ahead of schedule, producing throughput exceeding nameplate capacity. Core pricing yield sustains above 5.5% while collection volumes recover into positive territory, driving revenue growth toward 6.0%-7.0% and expanding operating margins past 21.5%. Diluted EPS accelerates toward $8.48 by FY2027, unlocking a potential valuation of $227.41.

• RNG and polymer projects operate above nameplate capacity with premium environmental attribute pricing
• Core pricing yields exceed 5.5% annually, maintaining positive spread over driver wages and fleet inflation
• Operating EBIT margins expand annually, driven by core pricing yield and operational leverage
• Diluted EPS reaches high-end estimate of $8.48 in FY2027
• Terminal exit multiple sustains at an elevated premium over peer averages reflecting cash flow durability