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Gradual reinvestment of maturing securities and deployment of $46.03B in cash into prevailing fixed-income yields with 10-year Treasuries at 4.96%, expanding net interest margin toward 3.30% and widening operating margins toward 49.18%.
Full-year net interest margin falls below 2.80% over two consecutive quarters or client sweep cash declines sequentially.
We assign a Reduce rating to The Charles Schwab Corporation. At $99.50 as of September 23, 2026, shares trade 16.4% above Fair value of $85.50. High funding costs on $30.95B in total debt and ongoing deposit cash sorting threaten profitability before franchise scale can lift returns.4
The Reduce rating advises investors to trim holdings and avoid committing new capital. Current pricing offers insufficient compensation for deposit volatility.
Shares trade at $99.50 as of September 23, 2026, exceeding Fair value of $85.50 and sitting below Potential value of $122.67. The market already prices in an aggressive recovery.
The primary risk is persistent cash sorting from bank sweeps into money market funds. Sustained wholesale borrowing across $30.95B in debt liabilities would compress net interest margin below the guided 3.00% to 3.10% range, impairing earnings.457
The constructive case requires reinvesting maturing securities into prevailing yields as cash sorting subsides. Expanded spread revenue and operating leverage would move margins toward 49.18%, but Potential value of $122.67 remains contingent on this outcome.47
Schwab commands massive scale with $19.00B in Investor Services revenue and $4.92B in Advisor Services revenue in FY2025, yielding low marginal clearing costs.8
Reinvesting maturing assets and $46.03B in cash reserves into higher interest rates expands net interest margin toward guided 4Q26 exit levels of 3.25% to 3.30%.57
Advisor Services contributed $4.92B in revenue in FY2025, demonstrating entrenched relationships with independent advisors who face substantial operational hurdles when transferring client accounts.8
We assign a Reduce rating because shares trade at a 16.4% premium over Fair value while deposit sorting and debt carrying expenses pressure net interest margins.
Schwab provides financial services to individuals and institutional clients through two segments – Investor Services and Advisor Services. The Advisor Services segment provides custodial, trading, banking and trust, and support services to independent registered investment advisors (RIAs), independent retirement advisors, and recordkeepers. Charles Schwab initially founded the Company nearly 55 years ago to provide individual investors with access to the financial markets at a highly competitive cost. The Company has expanded offerings over time in response to client needs, aiming to provide a compelling and often disruptive solution in the marketplace.
For additional discussion of contract balances, see Note 10. For a summary of revenue provided by its reportable segments, see Note 24.
Under a severe cash sorting scenario where transactional sweep cash continues departing for money funds, Schwab must replace zero-cost deposits with expensive wholesale borrowing across its $30.95B debt structure. As shown in FY2023 when operating margin dropped to 33.86%, higher interest expense on $406.54B of liabilities erodes net interest income. If trading velocity concurrently normalizes, operating income would fall well below the $11.46B reached in FY2025.
A downside case exists where prolonged cash sorting forces continued reliance on expensive supplemental wholesale funding, compressing net interest margin. Under this path, heightened price competition from fintechs and full-service peers constrains custodial fee revenue, while broader trading activity slows. Disconfirmation of the downside case would occur if low-cost bank sweep balances expand sequentially for consecutive quarters.
Operating income of $11.46B on $23.92B revenue in FY25 (47.90% margin) is exposed to persistent cash sorting and elevated funding costs on $30.95B total debt; during prior monetary tightening in FY23, margin dropped to 33.86%.47
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
Persistent client sweep cash migration into higher-yielding money funds increases interest expense across debt liabilities, compressing profitability and preventing operating leverage from offsetting clearing overhead as fixed servicing expenses persist.
当前：47.90% in FY2025
触发警报：Falls below 45.0% over any 12-month period
Schwab maintains a Wide economic moat anchored by high switching costs in Advisor Services ($4.92B FY2025 revenue) and unmatched scale in Investor Services ($19.00B FY2025 revenue). These core advantages insulate the franchise from aggressive fintech pricing while generating durable economic profit.
Return on equity of 17.9% comfortably exceeds the cost of equity of 8.78%, supporting positive economic spread across a ten-year horizon.2
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($85.50). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
The base scenario projects that cash sorting pressures continue to abate, allowing transactional bank sweep balances to stabilize while maturing portfolio assets reprice into prevailing fixed-income yields. This scenario requires sustained net asset inflows across retail and registered investment advisor channels. Disconfirmation would occur if client cash sorting accelerates into higher-yielding money funds, compressing net interest spreads over the coming year. At $99.50, the base outcome delivers $85.50, reflecting -14.1% return.
A positive surprise would signal that cash sorting headwinds have reversed, accelerating revenue and spread widening.
Performance aligns with expectations, with the market price remaining elevated relative to Fair value $85.50.
An earnings miss would demonstrate that elevated funding costs are eroding operating leverage.
Operating income translates effectively into operating cash flow, supported by low capital expenditure requirements for digital clearing operations. Reported profits exhibit minimal distortion from accruals or non-operational adjustments.
Measures asset yield expansion against deposit costs, directly driving operating margin and earnings growth.
Indicates whether client cash migration into third-party money funds is stabilizing or requiring high-cost debt.
In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $9.31B against capex of $548M, yielding free cash flow of $8.76B. Digital infrastructure requires low maintenance capex, converting over 94% of operating cash flow into free cash.67
Capital allocation prioritizes balance sheet de-risking and shareholder return. During FY2025, Schwab completed $7.35B in share repurchases, paid $2.33B in common dividends, and retired $14.25B of debt, supported by $46.03B in cash reserves.
Operating margin recovered to 47.90% in FY2025 from 33.86% in FY2023 as cash sorting pressures eased and asset gathering continued.
Return on equity of 17.9% comfortably exceeds the moderate cost of equity of 8.78%, generating strong economic value.
Revenue reached $23.92B in FY2025 with operating income rising to $11.46B.
Incremental asset inflows flow through to operating profit at elevated margins because core clearing systems are already established.
Total debt dropped to $30.95B in FY2025 aided by $14.25B in net debt repayments.
| 营业收入 | US$23,921,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$0 |
| 毛利 | US$23,921,000,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$12,462,000,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$11,459,000,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$2,607,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$8,852,000,000 |
| 总资产 | US$490,995,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$46,030,000,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$215,653,000,000 |
| 总负债 | US$441,570,000,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$406,540,000,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$49,425,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$8,852,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$10,531,000,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$1,362,000,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$317,000,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$9,311,000,000 |
| 经营现金流出 | US$1,220,000,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$99,363,000,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$65,514,000,000 |
| 投资现金流入 | US$24,538,000,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$29,702,000,000 |
| 股份回购 | US$7,346,000,000 |
| 已付股息 | US$2,329,000,000 |
| 净债务偿还 | US$14,250,000,000 |
| 其他融资活动 | US$5,777,000,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$69,661,000,000 |
| 投资现金流 | US$24,538,000,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$29,702,000,000 |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
| 按经营分部划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investor Services | US$190亿 | 79.4% | 22.1% |
| Advisor Services | US$49.2亿 | 20.6% | 21.6% |
2026-09-24分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | US$74.8亿 | US$32.3亿 | US$18.9亿 | US$36亿 | US$32.6亿 | US$3.5亿 | US$2.3亿 | US$1.4亿 | US$0 | US$4.9亿 | — | -US$387.8亿 | US$349.6亿 | — | US$178.7亿 | US$881.9亿 | US$31.3亿 | 40.0% | — | 7.8% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | US$86.2亿 | US$39.2亿 | US$23.5亿 | -US$8.4亿 | -US$12.4亿 | US$4亿 | US$2.7亿 | US$1.5亿 | US$0 | US$5.9亿 | — | -US$204.7亿 | US$226亿 | US$178.7亿 | US$191.6亿 | US$642.1亿 | US$197.5亿 | 42.4% | — | 6.6% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | US$101.3亿 | US$48.7亿 | US$35.1亿 | US$124.6亿 | US$118.9亿 | US$5.7亿 | US$2.8亿 | US$2亿 | US$10亿 | US$7.9亿 | — | -US$405.6亿 | US$471.7亿 | US$191.6亿 | US$382.3亿 | US$945.2亿 | US$68.9亿 | 45.0% | — | 7.4% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | US$107.2亿 | US$52亿 | US$37亿 | US$93.3亿 | US$86.2亿 | US$7.1亿 | US$3.2亿 | US$1.8亿 | US$22.2亿 | US$10.6亿 | — | US$119.6亿 | -US$139.4亿 | US$382.3亿 | US$455.8亿 | US$907.7亿 | US$74.3亿 | 45.2% | — | 6.7% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | US$116.9亿 | US$49亿 | US$33亿 | US$68.5亿 | US$62.2亿 | US$6.3亿 | US$4.1亿 | US$2亿 | US$0 | US$12.8亿 | — | -US$1258.5亿 | US$1439.8亿 | US$455.8亿 | US$705.6亿 | US$3777.5亿 | US$136.3亿 | 36.8% | — | 4.7% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | US$185.2亿 | US$88.8亿 | US$58.6亿 | US$21.2亿 | US$12亿 | US$9.2亿 | US$5.5亿 | US$2.5亿 | US$0 | US$18.2亿 | — | -US$756.6亿 | US$963.2亿 | US$705.6亿 | US$933.4亿 | US$4530.3亿 | US$189.1亿 | 41.6% | — | 5.1% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | US$207.6亿 | US$106.4亿 | US$71.8亿 | US$20.6亿 | US$10.9亿 | US$9.7亿 | US$6.5亿 | US$3.7亿 | US$34亿 | US$21.1亿 | US$141.3亿 | US$320.5亿 | -US$687.2亿 | US$933.4亿 | US$587.2亿 | US$1880.3亿 | US$378.8亿 | 45.2% | — | 7.0% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | US$188.4亿 | US$77.2亿 | US$50.7亿 | US$195.9亿 | US$188.9亿 | US$7亿 | US$8亿 | US$3.2亿 | US$28.4亿 | US$22.8亿 | US$211.6亿 | US$574.1亿 | -US$612.5亿 | US$587.2亿 | US$744.7亿 | US$1492.5亿 | US$590.8亿 | 33.9% | — | 8.7% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | US$196.1亿 | US$91.3亿 | US$59.4亿 | US$26.7亿 | US$20.5亿 | US$6.2亿 | US$14.4亿 | US$3.4亿 | US$0 | US$22.8亿 | -US$139.4亿 | US$354.3亿 | -US$470.6亿 | US$744.7亿 | US$655.1亿 | US$1247亿 | US$451.3亿 | 39.2% | — | 9.1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | US$239.2亿 | US$128.2亿 | US$88.5亿 | US$93.1亿 | US$87.6亿 | US$5.5亿 | US$13.6亿 | US$3.2亿 | US$73.5亿 | US$23.3亿 | -US$142.5亿 | US$245.4亿 | -US$297亿 | US$655.1亿 | US$696.6亿 | US$1081.1亿 | US$309.5亿 | 47.9% | — | 7.8% | — |
The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) trades at 13.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 14.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Robinhood Markets, Inc., The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and American Express Company, as of 2026-09-24.
The capital markets industry exhibits capex-to-depreciation of 1.70 and capex-to-revenue of 1.6%, reflecting ongoing investments in clearing infrastructure and wealth technology.
Broad market equity appreciation, expanding trading volume, and stabilizing sweep deposits that accelerate net interest margin widening.
Sustained high policy rates driving client cash sorting into money funds, accompanied by reduced retail turnover and asset contraction.
With capacity and supply metrics limited, the industry cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited. Schwab occupies a dominant scale position across retail investing and RIA custody, but profitability remains sensitive to interest rate movements.
Given that the report-date price of $99.50 trades at a 16.4% premium over Fair value of $85.50, investors should keep allocations minimal and trim exposure.
Strictly limit portfolio exposure given the business sensitivity to central bank rate policy and deposit cash sorting dynamics. Rebalance capital toward ideas offering wider margins of safety.
At $99.50 as of September 23, 2026, shares trade at a 16.4% premium over Fair value of $85.50, providing no margin of safety against deposit volatility.4
A modest dividend payout supported by $1.28 annual dividends provides limited cash return relative to balance-sheet debt risks.4
Durable asset gathering across Investor Services ($19.00B FY2025 revenue) supports the franchise, but decelerating top-line growth limits multiple expansion.8
We recommend reducing position weight in The Charles Schwab Corporation. At $99.50 as of September 23, 2026, the stock trades at a 16.4% premium over Fair value of $85.50, offering negative expected risk-adjusted return.4
Investors should trim holdings and monitor quarterly net interest margin against the 3.00% to 3.10% guided range, waiting for deposit sorting headwinds to abate before re-entering.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Schwab trades at 12.99x forward P/E with an assumed terminal multiple of 13.0x, but regulated financial peer GS trades at 12.65x; bank regulatory capital rules and deposit liabilities of $406.54B warrant a lower multiple.34
Consensus projects revenue reaching $31.57B in FY27, but the house forecast decelerates revenue growth to 7% in FY28, 5% in FY29, and 3.5% in FY30, while EPS growth drops to -2.20%.1
Failure of fixed-income portfolio yields to outpace supplemental borrowing costs halts spread widening, restricting net interest income expansion and leaving the firm vulnerable to elevated funding expenses on outstanding debt.
当前：3.00% to 3.10% guided for FY2026
触发警报：Drops below 2.80% over two consecutive quarters
Fee competition from retail trading brokers and subdued client engagement erode core retail monetization, impairing transaction volume growth and constraining the primary profit driver that accounts for most corporate revenue.
当前：$19.00B in FY2025
触发警报：Annual revenue growth drops below 5.0% YoY over 18 months
Registered investment advisors moving client assets to competing institutional wealth platforms reduces sticky fee revenue, signaling that switching costs are weakening under aggressive pricing and custodial technology enhancements by competing firms.
当前：$4.92B in FY2025
触发警报：Sequential decline in custodial revenue for two consecutive quarters
Escalating supplemental borrowing to replace sorted transactional deposits inflates fixed interest costs, curtailing capital return flexibility and eroding net income conversion even as overall client platform assets expand.
当前：$30.95B as of FY2025
触发警报：Increases above $35.0B over the next 12 months
| Reinvesting maturing securities into prevailing yields and expanding direct wealth advisory solutions. |
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
The bull scenario envisions a rapid return of sorted cash to transactional sweep accounts, expanding net interest spreads while robust equity markets lift custodial asset management fees. This path requires client trading engagement to remain elevated and advisory net new asset gathering to accelerate. Disconfirmation would occur if retail market participation wanes or fintech fee competition erodes trading margins before the next fiscal review. At $99.50, this outcome reaches $122.67, representing 23.3% return.
Drives long-term administration fee generation and validates core franchise market share expansion.
High switching costs protect institutional servicing fees from competitive encroachment by rival platforms.
Elevated debt levels create interest expense that directly reduces net earnings and capital return capacity.
| $33.77B |
| $35.46B |
| $36.70B |
| Operating income | $13.90B | $15.52B | $16.61B | $17.44B | $18.05B |
| NOPAT | $10.82B | $12.08B | $12.92B | $13.57B | $14.04B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $9.19B | $10.27B | $10.98B | $11.53B | $11.94B |
| Revenue growth | 18.2% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Operating margin | 49.2% | 49.2% | 49.2% | 49.2% | 49.2% |
| Tax rate | 22.2% | 22.2% | 22.2% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Reinvestment rate | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 利润率 |
|---|
| SCHW | The Charles Schwab Corporation | $172.1B | 13.0x | 6.6x | 20.3% | — | |
| HOOD | Robinhood Markets, Inc. | $110.3B | 36.3x | 22.4x | 23.6% | 43.9% | |
| GS | The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. | $272.6B | 12.6x | 4.0x | 16.9% | 42.2% | |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | $311.6B | 14.5x | 4.0x | 18.0% | 41.6% | |
| AXP | American Express Company | $203.9B | 15.0x | 2.9x | 34.4% | 20.3% |
