The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM)

NYSE: SJM · USD

$125

-2.09 (-1.6%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-12

Our latest published analysis: SJM rated Sell

The J.M. Smucker Company's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$81.0 / share

Potential value

$167 / share

Upside to FV

-32.5%

from $125

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$12.8B
Revenue (ttm)	9.2B
Net income (ttm)	229.5M
EPS (ttm)	$2.15
Shares out	106.8M
P/E (trailing)	58.3x
P/E (forward)	12.0x
Dividend	$4.48 (3.58%)
Volume	612,758
Beta	0.27

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 9.2B
Net income (ttm): 229.5M
EPS (ttm): $2.15
P/E (trailing): 58.3x
P/E (forward): 12.0x
Market cap: $12.8B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2022-04-30	2023-04-30	2024-04-30	2025-04-30	2026-04-30	Trend
Revenue	$8.00B	$8.53B	$8.18B	$8.73B	$9.05B	+3.1%
Gross profit	$2.70B	$2.80B	$3.12B	$3.38B	$3.03B	+3.0%
Operating income	$1.02B	$157.5M	$1.31B	$-673.9M	$360.2M	-23.0%
Net income	$631.7M	$-91.3M	$744.0M	$-1.23B	$-138.7M	—
EPS (diluted)	$5.83	$-0.86	$7.13	$-11.57	$-1.30	—
EBITDA	$1.46B	$573.8M	$1.69B	$-155.6M	$875.8M	-12.1%
R&D	$48.8M	$47.3M	$49.1M	—	—	+0.3%
SG&A	$1.36B	$1.46B	$1.45B	$1.53B	$1.50B	+2.4%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
BA	The Boeing Company	132.2B	18.0x	1.4x	-0.8%	+8.6%	-25.2%	卖出
BMY	Bristol-Myers Squibb Company	123.6B	13.3x	2.5x	21.7%	+2.1%	+45.8%	卖出
CHTR	Charter Communications, Inc.	17.2B	2.7x	0.3x	8.5%	+1.7%	-57.3%	强力买入
ADM	Archer-Daniels-Midland Company	37.3B	21.2x	0.5x	5.0%	+1.8%	+28.5%	减持
BF.B	Brown-Forman Corporation Class B	12.7B	17.9x	3.3x	14.3%	+1.6%	+0.4%	买入
CAG	Conagra Brands, Inc.	6.6B	—	0.6x	9.2%	+0.2%	-18.9%	强力买入

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$81.01

-32.5% from spot

The base turnaround scenario models steady post-acquisition margin recovery, with consolidated operating margin normalizing toward 17.5% as integration costs subside. Coffee pricing power and Uncrustables volume gains offset moderate declines in pet food and sweet snacks, supporting adjusted EPS of $10.77 in FY2027 and $9.04 in FY2028. Free cash flow of $1.1B is dedicated to debt reduction, steadily lowering annual interest expense. Synthesized intrinsic fair value under this path is $81.01.

Consolidated operating margin normalizes from GAAP 3.98% in FY2026 ($360.2M operating income on $9,050.9M revenue,) to 17.5% by FY2030-FY2031.
Adjusted EPS reaches $10.77 in FY2027 and $9.04 in FY2028.
Annual free cash flow averages $1.1B, enabling sustained debt retirement against $6,940,199,936 in debt obligations.
Weighted average cost of capital remains stable and terminal valuation multiples converge toward historical averages.

Bull20%

Price target

$167.37

+39.5% from spot

In the operational upside scenario, Uncrustables accelerates in sales, green coffee costs moderate, and Hostess cross-selling into away-from-home channels drives organic growth with expanding operating margins, accelerating debt reduction and multiple re-rating. Free cash flow generation exceeds full-year guidance, enabling SJM to retire substantial debt annually and de-risk credit metrics.

Uncrustables scales rapidly in annual net sales across retail and away-from-home channels.
Green coffee commodity costs stabilize, allowing U.S. Retail Coffee segment profit margins to expand significantly.
Sweet Baked Snacks cross-selling into convenience channels drives sustained annual segment revenue growth.
Operating margin expands substantially, accelerating annual free cash flow generation.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($81.01). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.5%	1.8%	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%
5.9%	$89.0	$91.6	$94.5	$97.7	$101
6.4%	$82.8	$84.9	$87.1	$89.6	$92.4
6.9%	$77.5	$79.2	$81.0	$83.0	$85.2
7.4%	$73.0	$74.4	$75.9	$77.5	$79.3
7.9%	$69.1	$70.2	$71.5	$72.8	$74.3

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E12

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E56

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE3.9

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC7.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All SJM indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

279

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 279 of 279 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000091419
Company name	The J. M. Smucker Company
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	832696405
Earnings date	2026-11-24
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	9,000
Employees change	1,000
Employees growth	12.5%
Enterprise value	$20.3B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-07-31
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	April
Founded	1897
In index	SP500
Industry	Packaged Foods
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US8326964058
Last 10-K release date	2026-06-09
Last earnings date	2026-08-26
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	1991-10-01
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$13.4B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-24
Options	Yes
Price	$125.32
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Staples
SIC code	2033
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	SJM
U.S. state	Ohio
Website	https://www.jmsmucker.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	11.95x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	20.47x
Earnings yield	1.71%
EV/Earnings	88.2x
EV/EBIT	11.91x
EV/EBITDA	8.94x
EV/FCF	12.74x
EV/Sales	2.21x
FCF / EV yield	7.85%
FCF yield	11.9%
Forward EV/Sales	2.27x
Forward P/E	12.37x
Forward P/S	1.49x
Graham number	51.01331
Graham upside	-59.17%
Industry forward P/E	12.46x
Industry P/E	70.3x
Lynch fair value	$10.74
Lynch upside	-91.4%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	8.55x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	7.09x
P/B ratio	2.37x
P/E ratio	58.33x
P/FCF ratio	8.4x
P/OCF ratio	6.99x
P/S ratio	1.46x
PEG ratio	2.01x
Price/EBITDA ratio	5.89x
Sector forward P/E	21.3x
Sector P/E	28.26x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	18.56%
EBITDA margin	24.72%
Effective tax rate	45.62%
FCF margin	17.35%
Gross margin	37.95%
Operating margin	18.56%
Pretax margin	4.61%
Profit margin	2.51%
Profit per employee	$25,500
Profitable quarters	2
Revenue per employee	$1M
ROA	6.26%
ROA (5Y)	4.98%
ROCE	12.21%
ROE	3.93%
ROE (5Y)	-0.75%
ROIC	7.32%
ROIC (5Y)	9.31%
SBC / revenue	0.29%
Tax / revenue	2.1%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth (QoQ)	-16.6%
EPS growth 10Y	-9.88%
EPS growth 5Y	-21.34%
EPS growth quarters	2
EPS growth years	1
FCF growth	136.19%
FCF growth (QoQ)	-30.3%
FCF growth 3Y	20.32%
FCF growth 5Y	9.79%
Gross profit growth	12.78%
Gross profit growth (Q)	76.41%
Gross profit growth 3Y	6.1%
Gross profit growth 5Y	2.91%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-16.44%
Net income growth 5Y	-21.89%
Net income growth quarters	2
Net income growth years	1
OCF growth	85.99%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-26.5%
OCF growth 10Y	3.21%
OCF growth 3Y	9.59%
OCF growth 5Y	8.1%
Operating income growth	24.82%
Operating income growth (Q)	492.84%
Operating income growth 3Y	9.52%
Operating income growth 5Y	5.87%
Revenue growth	5.08%
Revenue growth (Q)	5.02%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-2.15%
Revenue growth 10Y	1.78%
Revenue growth 3Y	2.67%
Revenue growth 5Y	3.03%
Revenue growth quarters	4
Revenue growth years	2

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-321.5M
Depreciation and amortization	$564.7M
EBIT	$1.7B
EBITDA	$2.3B
EPS	$2.15
FCF per share	$14.87
Financing cash flow	$-1.8B
Free cash flow	$1.6B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.6B
Gross profit	$3.5B
Income taxes	$192.5M
Investing cash flow	$-146.7M
Net borrowing	$-1.3B
Net cash flow	$3.9M
Net income	$229.5M
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$1.9B
Operating income	$1.7B
Revenue	$9.2B
Stock-based compensation	$26.8M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	1.54
Book value per share	$53.83
Debt / EBITDA	2.92
Debt / equity	1.21
Debt / FCF	4.37
Goodwill	$5.2B
Interest coverage	4.68
Long-term assets	$14.2B
Long-term liabilities	$8.2B
Net cash (debt)	$-6.9B
Net cash / market cap	-51.68%
Net debt / EBITDA	3.05
Net debt / equity	1.2
Net debt / FCF	4.34
Piotroski F-Score	8
Property, plant and equipment	$3.2B
Shareholders' equity	$5.8B
Tangible book value	$-5.1B
Tangible book value per share	$-47.50
Total assets	$16.2B
Total cash	$43.2M
Total debt	$6.9B
Total liabilities	$10.5B
WACC	4.73%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.54
Current assets	$2B
Current liabilities	$2.3B
Current ratio	0.87
Inventory turnover	4.42
Net working capital	$39.7M
Quick ratio	0.29
Working capital	$-297.6M
Working capital turnover	-21.56

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-0.33%
Dividend growth	1.83%
Dividend growth (10Y)	4.57%
Dividend growth (3Y)	2.2%
Dividend growth (5Y)	3.27%
Dividend growth years	30
Dividend payment date	2026-12-01
Dividend payment years	56
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$4.48
Dividend yield	3.58%
Ex-dividend date	2026-11-13
FCF payout ratio	30.13%
Last dividend	$1.12
Payout ratio	208.52%
Shareholder yield	3.25%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	-3.4%
10Y return CAGR	2.87%
10Y total return	32.66%
150-day SMA	$112.42
15Y price change	62.43%
15Y return CAGR	6.31%
15Y total return	150.33%
1D price change	-1.64%
1M price change	3.22%
1M total return	3.22%
1W price change	-3.69%
1W total return	-3.69%
1Y price change	19.2%
1Y return CAGR	24.13%
1Y total return	24.11%
20-day SMA	$123.34
200-day SMA	$110.94
20Y price change	158.2%
20Y return CAGR	8.35%
20Y total return	397.54%
3M price change	3.17%
3M total return	4.14%
3Y price change	10.77%
3Y return CAGR	7.56%
3Y total return	24.45%
50-day SMA	$124.03
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$135.89
52-week high date	2026-08-27
52-week low	$88.25
52-week low date	2026-04-13
5Y price change	1.54%
5Y return CAGR	3.85%
5Y total return	20.78%
6M price change	31.01%
6M total return	33.7%
All-time high	$163.07
All-time high date	2023-01-06
All-time low	$0.52
All-time low date	1974-12-06
Average true range (ATR)	$2.98
Average volume	1M
Beta (1Y)	0.2
Beta (2Y)	0.25
Beta (5Y)	0.27
Change from 52-week high	-7.78%
Change from 52-week low	42.01%
Change from all-time high	-23.41%
Change from all-time low	23,761.29%
Change from open	-0.42%
Day's gap	-1.22%
Dollar volume	$76.8M
High price	$126.44
Low price	$124.75
Monthly RSI	55.6
Open price	$125.85
Position in 52-week range	33.73%
Premarket change	-1.11%
Premarket close	$127.41
Premarket price	$126.00
Previous close	$127.41
Price vs 150-day SMA	11.09%
Price vs 20-day SMA	1.26%
Price vs 200-day SMA	12.57%
Price vs 50-day SMA	0.69%
Relative volume	0.6
RSI	50.76
Sharpe ratio	0.75
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.27
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.13
Sortino ratio	1.47
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.6
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.4
Volume	612.8K
Weekly RSI	57.84
YTD price change	27.69%
YTD total return	31.62%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	104.5M
Float percentage	97.84%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.19%
Shares change (YoY)	0.33%
Shares held by insiders	2.04%
Shares held by institutions	89.63%
Shares outstanding	106.8M
Short % of float	4.07%
Short % of shares	3.99%
Short ratio	3.2 days

Deeper analysis on SJM

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this SJM report

What is the latest published SJM stock rating?

The J.M. Smucker Company is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-12. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full SJM analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-12, lives at /stocks/SJM/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for SJM?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-12 gives SJM a fair value of USD 81 and a potential value of USD 167. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the SJM page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-12). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellSJM · Fair value $81.0-32.5%

Read full analysis →

The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM)

Our latest published analysis: SJM rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · SJM

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All SJM indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on SJM

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	7.5
Balance Sheet	3.0
Profitability	3.5
Revenue Growth	4.5
Risk Assessment	5.5
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	3.0
Capital Efficiency	3.5