Is Snowflake Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-10, SNOW trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is USD 152 versus our fair value of USD 155; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 217. That implies roughly 1.4% upside to fair value at that date.

What is SNOW's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-10, gives SNOW a fair value of USD 155 and a potential value of USD 217. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Snowflake Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy SNOW now?

Our latest published rating for SNOW, analyzed 2026-05-10, is Hold. Snowflake Inc. trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of USD 152 versus fair value of USD 155; potential value is USD 217. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for SNOW?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-10 documents Snowflake Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is SNOW's rating?

Our latest published rating for SNOW, analyzed 2026-05-10, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 155, the potential value of USD 217, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 152).

What archetype is SNOW?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-10, Snowflake Inc. is classified as a pre-profit stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for SNOW.

SNOW stock analysis

SNOW stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

§3 竞争护城河EN

Narrow

High data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousing

Switching costs associated with foundational data architecture

Network effects from data sharing ecosystem

经济利润

Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.

6.5/ 10

Narrow

Sources of advantage

High data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousingHigh data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousingModerate
Switching costs associated with foundational data architectureSwitching costs associated with foundational data architectureModerate
Network effects from data sharing ecosystemNetwork effects from data sharing ecosystemModerate

对护城河的已知威胁
威胁	严重程度	时间线	缓解措施
Native offerings from AWS, Azure, and GCP	medium	Monitor	Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Open-source data lakehouse architectures (e.g., Databricks)	medium	Monitor

§5 敏感性

折现率

终值增长

	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
8.9%	$183.87	$198.31	$215.20	$235.24	$259.39
9.9%	$160.51	$171.40	$183.87	$198.31	$215.20
10.9%	$142.41	$150.92	$160.51	$171.40	$183.87
11.9%	$127.99	$134.81	$142.41	$150.92	$160.51
12.9%	$116.21	$121.81	$127.99	$134.81	$142.41

行：折现率（盈利模型用 Ke，现金流模型用 WACC）。列：终值增长。

持续期变化（年）

Unavailable

FCF 悬崖

FCF cliff sensitivity is not model-supported in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.

§8 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
Period	2023-01-31	2024-01-31	2025-01-31	2026-01-31	Trend
Revenue	$2.07B	$2.81B	$3.63B	$4.68B	+31.4%
Gross profit	$1.35B	$1.91B	$2.41B	$3.15B	+32.6%
Operating income	$-816.0M	$-849.2M	$-1.28B	$-1.30B	—
Net income	$-796.7M	$-836.1M	$-1.29B	$-1.33B	—
EPS (diluted)	$-2.50	$-2.55	$-3.86	$-3.95	—
EBITDA	$-752.5M	$-729.3M	$-1.10B	$-1.08B	—
R&D	$788.1M	$1.29B	$1.78B	$1.97B	+35.7%
SG&A	$1.40B	$1.71B	$2.08B	$2.61B	+23.0%

现金流

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

最新营收46.8亿营收复合年增长率 +31.4%

营业利润率-30.6%4个财务期间

最新自由现金流11.2亿FY2026

净现金8704.9万FY2026

利润表明细业务规模如何转化为报告利润。

财务历史数据
营业收入	4,683,946,000
营业成本	1,537,805,000
毛利	3,146,141,000
营业费用	4,581,306,000
营业利润	-1,435,165,000
营业外项目及税项	103,549,000
净利润	-1,331,616,000

资产负债表概览所选期间已报告资产的持有结构与融资来源。

StockMarketAgent.AI

资产负债表明细数据
总资产	9,132,495,000
现金	2,828,163,000
流动资产	5,742,612,000
总负债	7,208,393,000
流动负债	4,421,691,000
股东权益	1,924,102,000

营收与利润业务规模如何转化为报告利润。

现金与债务可用流动性与总借款的对比。

现金创造能力经营现金流与自由现金流的对比。

盈利能力毛利率、营业利润率和净利率的变化。

2026-05-10分析所采用的时点财务数据。

财务历史数据
期间	营业收入	EBITDA	净利润	经营现金流	自由现金流	资本支出	折旧与摊销	股份支付	股份回购	已付股息	净债务发行	投资现金流	融资现金流	期初现金	期末现金	现金与投资	总债务	营业利润率	ROIC	WACC	ROIC−WACC利差
2023-01-31	20.7亿	-7.5亿	-8亿	5.5亿	5亿	4984万	6353.5万	8.6亿	0	—	0	—	—	—	—	9.4亿	2.5亿	-40.8%	—	10.5%	—
2024-01-31	28.1亿	-7.3亿	-8.4亿	8.5亿	7.5亿	9796.3万	1.2亿	11.7亿	5.9亿	—	0	—	—	—	—	17.6亿	2.9亿	-39.0%	—	11.3%	—
2025-01-31	36.3亿	-11亿	-12.9亿	9.6亿	8.8亿	7571.2万	1.8亿	14.8亿	19.3亿	—	23亿	—	—	—	—	26.3亿	26.9亿	-40.2%	—	11.3%	—
2026-01-31	46.8亿	-10.8亿	-13.3亿	12.2亿	11.2亿	1亿	2.2亿	16亿	8.7亿	—	0	—	—	—	—	28.3亿	27.4亿	-30.6%	—	10.8%	—

§9 同业估值比较

Snowflake Inc.SNOW

股价 / 公允价值

公允价值US$154.6Report-date priceUS$152.45

评估日期2026年5月10日

经济护城河Narrow

投资评分卡51 / 100

Uber Technologies Inc.UBER

股价 / 公允价值

公允价值US$78.99Report-date priceUS$69.22

评估日期2026年9月25日

经济护城河Narrow

投资评分卡68 / 100

Salesforce, Inc.CRM

股价 / 公允价值

公允价值US$220.82Report-date priceUS$237.5

评估日期2026年9月21日

经济护城河Wide

投资评分卡63 / 100

Snowflake Inc.SNOW

股价 / 公允价值

公允价值US$154.6Report-date priceUS$152.45

评估日期2026年5月10日

经济护城河Narrow

投资评分卡51 / 100

同业倍数和盈利能力
代码	名称	市值	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

SNOW trades at 62.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.0x; EV/EBITDA of -39.9x against a peer median of 18.6x; 6 peers.

§11 仓位管理EN

仓位规模

Limit to maximum 2% of portfolio given binary valuation risks and lack of current GAAP profitability.

风险

Trim exposure if price breaches $180 or if NRR deteriorates below 110%.

建仓批次
水平	操作	原因
Current / pullbacks	Initiate only below $120 to build a margin of safety against SBC dilution risks.	Initiate only below $120 to build a margin of safety against SBC dilution risks.

减仓批次
水平	操作
Thesis break	Trim exposure if price breaches $180 or if NRR deteriorates below 110%.

SNOW	Snowflake Inc.	$52.7B	62.7x	11.3x	-39.9x	—	—
UBER	Uber Technologies Inc.		17.4x	2.9x	22.9x	35.3%	14.6%
CRM	Salesforce Inc.		12.2x	3.6x	14.0x	12.4%	19.2%
SHOP	Shopify Inc.		47.5x	11.6x	64.1x	11.3%	15.7%
INTU	Intuit Inc.		15.0x	5.5x	18.6x	23.5%	18.4%
ADBE	Adobe Inc.		9.6x	4.2x	10.7x	58.8%	38.8%

Is Snowflake Inc. overvalued?

What is SNOW's fair value?

Should I buy SNOW now?

What are the biggest risks for SNOW?

What is SNOW's rating?

What archetype is SNOW?

Snowflake Inc.

Names readers of SNOW also follow

公司概览

Annual Revenue Growth Deceleration

Diluted Earnings Per Share

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

PEG-adjusted Peer

Annual Revenue Growth Deceleration

Diluted Earnings Per Share

Gross Profit Margin Contraction

Operating Margin Target Convergence

Net Profit Margin Erosion

EV / Revenue

Checks and reference points

Reverse DCF

Gross Profit Margin Contraction

Operating Margin Target Convergence

Net Profit Margin Erosion