Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG)

NYSE: SPG · USD

$211

-1.25 (-0.6%)· Recorded snapshot

英文原文ZH

翻译期间显示英文原文

此报告尚未翻译。翻译队列赶上后请在几分钟内刷新。

StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-27

Our latest published analysis: SPG rated Sell

Simon Property Group, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$122 / share

Potential value

$169 / share

Upside to FV

-40.6%

from $211

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$77.8B
Revenue (ttm)	6.9B
Net income (ttm)	4.6B
EPS (ttm)	$14.2
Shares out	379.4M
P/E (trailing)	14.9x
P/E (forward)	30.7x
Dividend	$9.00 (4.26%)
Volume	660,830
Beta	1.33

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 6.9B
Net income (ttm): 4.6B
EPS (ttm): $14.2
P/E (trailing): 14.9x
P/E (forward): 30.7x
Market cap: $77.8B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$5.12B	$5.29B	$5.66B	$5.96B	$6.36B	+5.6%
Gross profit	$4.15B	$4.29B	$4.73B	$4.92B	$5.46B	+7.1%
Operating income	$2.41B	$2.58B	$2.81B	$3.09B	$3.18B	+7.1%
Net income	$2.25B	$2.14B	$2.62B	$2.37B	$4.61B	+19.7%
EPS (diluted)	$6.84	$6.52	$6.98	$7.26	$14.17	+20.0%
EBITDA	$4.46B	$4.46B	$4.07B	$5.02B	$7.86B	+15.2%
R&D	$0	$0	$0	—	—	+9.8%
SG&A	$30.3M	$35.0M	$38.5M	$44.7M	$125.7M	+42.7%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AMT	American Tower Corporation	85.1B	25.8x	7.5x	7.8%	+4.0%	+0.7%	减持
ARE	Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.	6.9B	—	2.4x	0.9%	+6.6%	-45.8%	持有
CCI	Crown Castle Inc.	37.4B	46.3x	9.1x	5.1%	-7.9%	-6.2%	卖出
CPT	Camden Property Trust	10.3B	32.3x	6.6x	3.2%	+7.7%	-0.6%	买入
DLR	Digital Realty Trust, Inc.	68B	86.6x	10.0x	2.4%	+9.3%	+3.7%	卖出
DOC	Healthpeak Properties, Inc.	13B	53.8x	4.4x	2.5%	+10.5%	+3.0%	强力买入

Base and Bull scenarios

Base50%

Price target

$121.70

-40.6% from spot

The base case represents the modal operating trajectory, where contractual minimum base rent escalations and steady tenant re-leasing support modest top-line revenue expansion. The signed-not-open leasing pipeline converts into revenue recognition over the forecast horizon, while redevelopment construction starts maintain disciplined capital intensity. Operating margins remain stable near historical norms, reflecting durable pricing power balanced by routine tenant improvements. However, market pricing at $204.82 significantly exceeds intrinsic operating fundamentals, resulting in a target of $121.70 and an expected return of -40.6% at a 50.0% probability weighting, converging toward Fair value $121.70.

Contractual lease escalations sustain modest top-line revenue growth across the portfolio
Operating margins remain stable near historical averages despite routine tenant concessions
Capital expenditures and redevelopment outlays track guided operational plans

Bull25%

Price target

$169.25

-17.4% from spot

Under the bull scenario, tenant retail sales accelerate across premier regional malls and premium outlets, driving strong percentage rent overages and robust leasing spreads on renewals. Recaptured department store anchor boxes are rapidly converted into high-yielding dining, entertainment, and mixed-use spaces, delivering returns on invested capital well above the cost of capital. Operating margins expand as tenant concessions remain minimal, supporting accelerated dividend distribution growth. Under these operating conditions, the shares re-rate toward Potential value $169.25, delivering an expected return of -17.4% at a 25.0% probability weighting.

Tenant retail sales growth drives positive leasing spreads and accelerated percentage rent collections
Redevelopment project completions generate yields substantially exceeding the cost of capital
Operating margins expand toward peak levels as tenant occupancy costs remain healthy

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($121.70). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.7%	$131	$134	$136	$139	$143
9.2%	$124	$126	$129	$131	$134
9.7%	$118	$120	$122	$124	$126
10.2%	$112	$114	$116	$117	$119
10.7%	$108	$109	$110	$112	$114

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E30.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E14.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE120.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC9.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All SPG indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

261

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 261 of 261 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001063761
Company name	Simon Property Group, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	828806109
Earnings date	2026-11-05
Earnings time	amc
Employees	3,600
Employees change	600
Employees growth	20%
Enterprise value	$108.5B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1960
In index	SP500
Industry	REIT - Retail
IPO date	1993-12-13
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US8288061091
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-25
Last earnings date	2026-08-10
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$80.1B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-05
Options	Yes
Price	$211.03
Price currency	USD
Sector	Real Estate
SIC code	6798
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	SPG
U.S. state	Indiana
Website	https://www.simon.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	37.76x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	21.75x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	20.18x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	19.42x
Earnings yield	6.72%
EV/Earnings	23.5x
EV/EBIT	32.98x
EV/EBITDA	21.17x
EV/FCF	33.72x
EV/Sales	15.63x
FCF / EV yield	2.97%
FCF yield	4.02%
Forward EV/Sales	16.01x
Forward P/E	31.68x
Forward P/S	11.82x
Graham number	65.8464
Graham upside	-68.8%
Industry forward P/E	34.91x
Industry P/E	24.42x
Lynch fair value	$354.73
Lynch upside	68.08%
P/B ratio	15.63x
P/E ratio	14.87x
P/FCF ratio	24.89x
P/FFO ratio	16.82x
P/OCF ratio	19.42x
P/S ratio	11.54x
Price / tangible book value	18.22x
Price/EBITDA ratio	15.62x
Sector forward P/E	29.99x
Sector P/E	40.99x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	47.4%
EBITDA margin	73.84%
FCF margin	46.36%
Gross margin	81.43%
Operating margin	47.4%
Pretax margin	77.58%
Profit margin	66.57%
Profit per employee	$1.3M
Profitable quarters	68
Profitable years	32
Revenue per employee	$1.9M
ROA	5.63%
ROA (5Y)	5.14%
ROCE	10.18%
ROE	120.51%
ROE (5Y)	74.41%
ROIC	9.32%
ROIC (5Y)	9.05%
Tax / revenue	-0.01%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	119.22%
EPS growth (Q)	-12.46%
EPS growth (QoQ)	1.04%
EPS growth 10Y	9.71%
EPS growth 3Y	29.22%
EPS growth 5Y	25.12%
EPS growth years	3
Net income growth	118.41%
Net income growth (Q)	-13.11%
Net income growth (QoQ)	0.74%
Net income growth 3Y	29%
Net income growth 5Y	25.54%
Net income growth years	3
OCF growth	2.54%
OCF growth (Q)	-1.63%
OCF growth (QoQ)	43.46%
OCF growth 10Y	2.45%
OCF growth 3Y	2.47%
OCF growth 5Y	3.99%
Revenue growth	15.02%
Revenue growth (Q)	19.5%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	1.91%
Revenue growth 10Y	2.64%
Revenue growth 3Y	8.49%
Revenue growth 5Y	8.18%
Revenue growth quarters	21
Revenue growth years	5

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-905.4M
Depreciation and amortization	$1.7B
EBIT	$3.3B
EBITDA	$5.1B
EPS	$14.19
FCF per share	$8.48
Financing cash flow	$-3.6B
Free cash flow	$3.2B
Funds from operations (FFO)	$4.8B
Gross profit	$5.7B
Income taxes	$-807,000
Investing cash flow	$-746.1M
Net cash flow	$-212.3M
Net income	$4.6B
Operating income	$3.3B
Revenue	$6.9B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$13.58
Debt / EBITDA	5.67
Debt / equity	5.04
Debt / FCF	9.15
Interest coverage	3.07
Net cash (debt)	$-28.4B
Net cash / market cap	-35.49%
Net debt / EBITDA	5.54
Net debt / equity	4.86
Net debt / FCF	8.83
Piotroski F-Score	4
Property, plant and equipment	$30.4B
Shareholders' equity	$5.8B
Tangible book value	$4.4B
Tangible book value per share	$13.58
Total assets	$39.7B
Total cash	$1B
Total debt	$29.4B
Total liabilities	$33.9B
WACC	9.24%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.19
Current ratio	0.27
Net working capital	$-2.7B
Quick ratio	0.26
Working capital	$-5.4B

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.28%
Dividend growth	5.33%
Dividend growth (10Y)	3.27%
Dividend growth (3Y)	6.59%
Dividend growth (5Y)	10.1%
Dividend growth years	4
Dividend payment date	2026-09-30
Dividend payment years	33
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$9.00
Dividend yield	4.26%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-09
FCF payout ratio	104.94%
Last dividend	$2.25
Payout ratio	62.72%
Shareholder yield	4.54%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	15.27%
10Y return CAGR	6.83%
10Y total return	93.64%
150-day SMA	$210.04
15Y price change	63.6%
15Y return CAGR	8.51%
15Y total return	240.23%
1D price change	-0.59%
1M price change	3.12%
1M total return	3.12%
1W price change	2.04%
1W total return	2.04%
1Y price change	17.48%
1Y return CAGR	22.94%
1Y total return	22.93%
20-day SMA	$204.30
200-day SMA	$205.58
20Y price change	118.17%
20Y return CAGR	8.86%
20Y total return	445.95%
3M price change	-8.83%
3M total return	-7.85%
3Y price change	102.04%
3Y return CAGR	32.76%
3Y total return	134.04%
50-day SMA	$207.42
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$238.50
52-week high date	2026-07-29
52-week low	$172.19
52-week low date	2025-10-31
5Y price change	46.75%
5Y return CAGR	13.87%
5Y total return	91.41%
6M price change	4.93%
6M total return	7.22%
All-time high	$238.50
All-time high date	2026-07-29
All-time low	$20.44
All-time low date	1999-12-15
Average true range (ATR)	$3.34
Average volume	1.2M
Beta (1Y)	0.19
Beta (2Y)	0.75
Beta (5Y)	1.33
Change from 52-week high	-11.52%
Change from 52-week low	22.56%
Change from all-time high	-11.44%
Change from all-time low	933.42%
Change from open	0.1%
Day's gap	-0.69%
Dollar volume	$139.5M
High price	$212.42
Low price	$210.76
Monthly RSI	59.43
Open price	$210.81
Position in 52-week range	16.27%
Premarket change	-0.04%
Premarket close	$212.28
Premarket price	$212.20
Previous close	$212.28
Price vs 150-day SMA	0.56%
Price vs 20-day SMA	3.38%
Price vs 200-day SMA	2.74%
Price vs 50-day SMA	1.83%
Relative volume	0.54
RSI	59.6
Sharpe ratio	0.96
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.18
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.47
Sortino ratio	1.81
Sortino ratio (3Y)	2.02
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.89
Volume	660.8K
Weekly RSI	53.58
YTD price change	14.1%
YTD total return	17.94%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	319.8M
Float percentage	84.31%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.29%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.28%
Shares held by insiders	0.32%
Shares held by institutions	95.68%
Shares outstanding	379.4M
Short % of float	3.12%
Short % of shares	2.63%
Short ratio	7.7 days

Deeper analysis on SPG

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this SPG report

What is the latest published SPG stock rating?

Simon Property Group, Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full SPG analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27, lives at /stocks/SPG/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for SPG?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-27 gives SPG a fair value of USD 122 and a potential value of USD 169. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the SPG page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-27). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellSPG · Fair value $122-40.6%

Read full analysis →

Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG)

Our latest published analysis: SPG rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · SPG

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All SPG indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on SPG

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	1.5
Profitability	8.5
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	2.5
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	4.5
Capital Efficiency	5.5