Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD)

NASDAQ: STLD · USD

$250

+3.11 (+1.3%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-04

Our latest published analysis: STLD rated Sell

Steel Dynamics Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$148 / share

Potential value

$230 / share

Upside to FV

-36.4%

from $250

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$33.3B
Revenue (ttm)	22.2B
Net income (ttm)	2B
EPS (ttm)	$13.5
Shares out	142.2M
P/E (trailing)	18.5x
P/E (forward)	10.0x
Dividend	$2.12 (0.85%)
Volume	968,645
Beta	1.49

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 22.2B
Net income (ttm): 2B
EPS (ttm): $13.5
P/E (trailing): 18.5x
P/E (forward): 10.0x
Market cap: $33.3B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$18.41B	$22.26B	$18.80B	$17.54B	$18.18B	-0.3%
Gross profit	$5.36B	$6.12B	$4.05B	$2.80B	$2.39B	-18.3%
Operating income	$4.30B	$5.09B	$3.15B	$1.94B	$1.48B	-23.5%
Net income	$3.21B	$3.86B	$2.45B	$1.54B	$1.19B	-22.1%
EPS (diluted)	$15.56	$20.92	$14.64	$9.84	$7.99	-15.3%
EBITDA	$4.61B	$5.50B	$3.15B	$2.52B	$2.11B	-17.7%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$644.0M	$545.6M	$588.6M	$664.1M	$765.3M	+4.4%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	持有
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	持有
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	卖出
APD	Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.	68.3B	—	5.4x	8.9%	+5.2%	+23.1%	持有
AVY	Avery Dennison Corporation	13.7B	19.8x	1.5x	15.1%	+3.3%	+1.6%	持有
BALL	Ball Corporation	16.7B	18.0x	1.2x	8.7%	+2.3%	+28.3%	买入

Base and Bull scenarios

Base50%

Price target

$147.56

-36.4% from spot

Under the Base scenario, assigned a 50.0% probability, Fair value sits at $147.56, implying an expected return of -36.4% relative to $231.99 (as of 2026-10-02). This case reflects orderly commercial production across the new aluminum flat-rolled platform, capital investments conforming to guided normalized ceilings, and downstream fabrication backlogs that sustain through-cycle operating profitability above broader industry averages. Disconfirmation would occur if non-residential construction activity deteriorates or if trade enforcement fails to curb disruptive foreign steel shipments.

Capital expenditures moderate within management guided ranges
Fabrication order backlogs preserve healthy through-cycle shipment volume
Electric arc furnace cost advantages sustain operating margins above sector averages
Share repurchases continue to reduce diluted share count

Bull25%

Price target

$230.11

-0.8% from spot

The Bull scenario carries a 25.0% probability with Potential value reaching $230.11, representing an implied return of -0.8% from $231.99. In this outcome, commercial throughput at the Columbus facility accelerates ahead of schedule to achieve full through-cycle earnings power, non-residential construction demand drives sustained fabrication pricing gains, and disciplined domestic scrap pricing widens metal spreads. Substantial annual free cash flow expansion funds aggressive share repurchases. Disconfirmation would stem from unexpected startup delays or persistent contractor cost inflation.

Accelerated commercial utilization and full nameplate earnings achieved at Columbus
Non-residential construction demand drives sustained downstream pricing strength
Substantial free cash flow conversion funds accelerated share repurchases
Trade policy enforcement curtails foreign steel import penetration

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($147.56). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
9.6%	$156	$158	$161	$163	$166
10.1%	$150	$152	$154	$156	$158
10.6%	$144	$146	$148	$149	$151
11.1%	$139	$141	$142	$144	$145
11.6%	$135	$136	$137	$139	$140

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E10

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E21.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE20.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC15.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All STLD indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

292

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 292 of 292 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001022671
Company name	Steel Dynamics, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	858119100
Earnings date	2026-10-19
Earnings time	amc
Employees	14,400
Employees change	1,400
Employees growth	10.77%
Enterprise value	$39B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1993
In index	SP500
Industry	Steel
IPO date	1996-11-21
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US8581191009
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-27
Last earnings date	2026-10-19
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2008-03-31
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$35.5B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-25
Options	Yes
Price	$249.90
Price currency	USD
Sector	Materials
SIC code	3312
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	STLD
U.S. state	Indiana
Website	https://www.steeldynamics.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	18.44x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	10.97x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	14.93x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	10.79x
Earnings yield	5.41%
EV/Earnings	19.11x
EV/EBIT	14.66x
EV/EBITDA	11.67x
EV/FCF	34.2x
EV/Sales	1.69x
FCF / EV yield	2.92%
FCF yield	3.22%
Forward EV/Sales	1.47x
Forward P/E	11.03x
Forward P/S	1.34x
Graham number	144.96327
Graham upside	-39.3%
Industry forward P/E	11.77x
Industry P/E	24.15x
Lynch fair value	$67.59
Lynch upside	-71.7%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	33.13x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	20.9x
P/B ratio	3.57x
P/E ratio	18.49x
P/FCF ratio	31.02x
P/OCF ratio	20.04x
P/S ratio	1.53x
PEG ratio	0.53x
Price / tangible book value	3.75x
Price/EBITDA ratio	10.58x
Sector forward P/E	15.02x
Sector P/E	22.73x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	11.5%
EBITDA margin	14.44%
Effective tax rate	21.51%
FCF margin	4.93%
Gross margin	15.9%
Operating margin	11.5%
Pretax margin	11.19%
Profit margin	8.82%
Profit per employee	$136,080
Profitable quarters	43
Profitable years	10
Revenue per employee	$1.5M
ROA	9.45%
ROA (5Y)	15.22%
ROCE	16.71%
ROE	20.81%
ROE (5Y)	34.91%
ROIC	15.16%
ROIC (5Y)	28.16%
SBC / revenue	0.31%
Tax / revenue	2.41%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	80.1%
EPS growth (Q)	91.97%
EPS growth (QoQ)	42.55%
EPS growth 10Y	40.71%
EPS growth 3Y	-4.62%
EPS growth 5Y	4.2%
EPS growth quarters	5
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	252.05%
FCF growth (Q)	25.01%
FCF growth (QoQ)	128.94%
FCF growth 3Y	-22.05%
FCF growth 5Y	18.26%
Gross profit growth	53.33%
Gross profit growth (Q)	69.19%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-6.35%
Gross profit growth 5Y	-2.66%
Net income growth	73.9%
Net income growth (Q)	87.28%
Net income growth (QoQ)	41.55%
Net income growth 3Y	-9.7%
Net income growth 5Y	-3.25%
Net income growth quarters	5
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	11.23%
OCF growth (Q)	17.05%
OCF growth (QoQ)	97.64%
OCF growth 10Y	5.52%
OCF growth 3Y	-23.59%
OCF growth 5Y	0.93%
Operating income growth	82.08%
Operating income growth (Q)	98.2%
Operating income growth 3Y	-9.01%
Operating income growth 5Y	-4.1%
Revenue growth	26%
Revenue growth (Q)	34.82%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	6.86%
Revenue growth 10Y	11.54%
Revenue growth 3Y	4.65%
Revenue growth 5Y	7.19%
Revenue growth quarters	5
Revenue growth years	1

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-599.9M
Depreciation and amortization	$654.3M
EBIT	$2.6B
EBITDA	$3.2B
EPS	$13.52
FCF per share	$7.70
Financing cash flow	$-757.9M
Free cash flow	$1.1B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1B
Gross profit	$3.5B
Income taxes	$534.8M
Investing cash flow	$-778.7M
Net borrowing	$416.1M
Net cash flow	$158.1M
Net income	$2B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$1.6B
Operating income	$2.6B
Revenue	$22.2B
Stock-based compensation	$69.7M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	5.63
Book value per share	$69.09
Debt / EBITDA	1.37
Debt / equity	0.45
Debt / FCF	4.03
Goodwill	$477.5M
Interest coverage	18.43
Long-term assets	$9.8B
Long-term liabilities	$5.5B
Net cash (debt)	$-3.5B
Net cash / market cap	-10.26%
Net debt / EBITDA	1.09
Net debt / equity	0.36
Net debt / FCF	3.18
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$8.5B
Shareholders' equity	$9.8B
Tangible book value	$9.1B
Tangible book value per share	$63.61
Total assets	$17.8B
Total cash	$928.6M
Total debt	$4.4B
Total liabilities	$8.1B
WACC	11.28%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.31
Current assets	$8B
Current liabilities	$2.5B
Current ratio	3.14
Inventory turnover	5.02
Net working capital	$4.6B
Quick ratio	1.32
Working capital	$5.5B
Working capital turnover	4.63

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	3.4%
Dividend growth	6.63%
Dividend growth (10Y)	14.13%
Dividend growth (3Y)	8.97%
Dividend growth (5Y)	15.2%
Dividend growth years	13
Dividend payment date	2026-10-09
Dividend payment years	23
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$2.12
Dividend yield	0.85%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-30
FCF payout ratio	27.54%
Last dividend	$0.53
Payout ratio	15.68%
Shareholder yield	4.29%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	830.19%
10Y return CAGR	27.45%
10Y total return	1,030.45%
150-day SMA	$236.00
15Y price change	1,782.82%
15Y return CAGR	24.34%
15Y total return	2,524.14%
1D price change	1.26%
1M price change	6.93%
1M total return	7.19%
1W price change	2.24%
1W total return	2.24%
1Y price change	58.11%
1Y return CAGR	59.86%
1Y total return	59.81%
20-day SMA	$240.06
200-day SMA	$223.05
20Y price change	1,533.54%
20Y return CAGR	17.5%
20Y total return	2,415.42%
3M price change	-0.17%
3M total return	0.07%
3Y price change	139.99%
3Y return CAGR	35.68%
3Y total return	149.84%
50-day SMA	$236.81
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$288.74
52-week high date	2026-06-15
52-week low	$150.03
52-week low date	2025-11-05
5Y price change	287%
5Y return CAGR	33.03%
5Y total return	316.5%
6M price change	11.03%
6M total return	11.54%
All-time high	$288.74
All-time high date	2026-06-15
All-time low	$2.06
All-time low date	2000-05-22
Average true range (ATR)	$8.86
Average volume	967.3K
Beta (1Y)	0.89
Beta (2Y)	1.27
Beta (5Y)	1.49
Change from 52-week high	-13.45%
Change from 52-week low	66.56%
Change from all-time high	-13.47%
Change from all-time low	12,011%
Change from open	2.13%
Day's gap	-0.85%
Dollar volume	$242.1M
High price	$249.90
Low price	$238.58
Monthly RSI	66.54
Open price	$244.69
Position in 52-week range	100%
Premarket change	0.08%
Premarket close	$246.80
Premarket price	$247.00
Previous close	$246.80
Price vs 150-day SMA	5.87%
Price vs 20-day SMA	4.08%
Price vs 200-day SMA	12.02%
Price vs 50-day SMA	5.51%
Relative volume	1
RSI	59.7
Sharpe ratio	1.38
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.99
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.83
Sortino ratio	2.24
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.73
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.41
Volume	968.6K
Weekly RSI	58.87
YTD price change	47.45%
YTD total return	48.59%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	132.4M
Float percentage	93.12%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.67%
Shares change (YoY)	-3.4%
Shares held by insiders	6.77%
Shares held by institutions	85.37%
Shares outstanding	142.2M
Short % of float	2.93%
Short % of shares	2.73%
Short ratio	4 days

Deeper analysis on STLD

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this STLD report

What is the latest published STLD stock rating?

Steel Dynamics Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full STLD analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04, lives at /stocks/STLD/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for STLD?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-04 gives STLD a fair value of USD 148 and a potential value of USD 230. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the STLD page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-04). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellSTLD · Fair value $148-36.4%

Read full analysis →

Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD)

Our latest published analysis: STLD rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · STLD

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All STLD indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on STLD

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	7.5
Profitability	6.0
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	6.0
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	5.5