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TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $938, high $1542, with mid-point at $1239.
Stock analysis

TDG fair value $938–$1,542

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-13下次更新: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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股价
$1191.19
▲ +47.59 (+4.00%)
公允价值
$1239
$938–$1542
评级
持有
confidence 86/100
上行空间
+4.0%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$1052.96
MoS level · 15%
市值
$66.6B
P/E fwd 25.5
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§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $1,239 with high case $1,542.
  • Implied upside of 4.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 86/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$1,239
Margin of safety
+3.8%
Confidence
86/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$1,191.19Price
Low $938.35
Mid $1,238.78
High $1,542.2

TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered
    Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered sole-source components.
  • Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream
    Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream.
  • Cycle upside
    High airline fleet utilization drives relentless aftermarket parts demand, cementing pricing power.

§2 看空情景

A severe aviation downcycle matching 2020 shocks combined with sustained high interest rates would expose TDG's extreme financial leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA.. A 20% drop in aftermarket revenues paired with ballooning interest costs on $30B+ of debt would severely impair free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. conversion, pulling equity valuation below the $938 downside floor.

该论点可能失败的方式

Regulatory Pricing Crackdown

15%· Low

DoD enforces pricing caps or retroactively audits sole-source pricing, structurally crushing gross margins and erasing the aftermarket premium.

FV impact
Severe multiple contraction dragging valuation down to the $938 downside scenario.
Trigger
1-3 Years

Aviation Downcycle Meets Debt

20%· Medium

Macroeconomic recession curtails air travel, slashing aftermarket demand while heavy debt servicing consumes all free cash flow.

FV impact
FCF squeeze pushes the Ke premium up, threatening a valuation drop below $938.
Trigger
1-2 Years

M&A Pipeline Exhaustion

15%· Low

Regulatory bodies block future acquisitions or targets disappear, breaking the inorganic growth engine that internal valuation cross-checks relies on.

FV impact
Long-term growth expectations fade, pulling the EV multiple down and reverting valuation toward trailing averages.
Trigger
3-5 Years
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Year-over-year operating margin compression exceeding 200 basis points.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Maintenance capex exceeding 3% of revenues structurally.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt servicing costs exceeding 40% of operating cash flow.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Inability to successfully close and integrate accretive bolt-on acquisitions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margins falling below 55% due to airline pushback or supply chain inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期间2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
营业收入$5.43B$6.59B$7.94B$8.83B+17.6%
毛利$3.10B$3.84B$4.67B$5.31B+19.7%
营业利润$2.22B$2.92B$3.58B$4.19B+23.7%
净利润$866.0M$1.30B$1.71B$2.07B+33.8%
每股收益（摊薄）$13.40$22.03$25.62$32.08+33.8%
EBITDA$2.46B$3.15B$3.81B$4.57B+23.0%
研发—————
销售管理费用$748.0M$780.0M$934.0M$921.0M+7.2%

质量评分

OCF / 净利润
0.98×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Fail
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
16.3%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

现金流

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

TDG — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, TDG trades close to fair value. The current price is $1191 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $1239 (range $938–$1542), which implies roughly 4.0% upside to the midpoint.

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