Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $938, high $1542, with mid-point at $1239.
Stock analysis

TDG fair value $938–$1,542

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-13下次更新: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
股价
$1191.19
▲ +47.59 (+4.00%)
公允价值
$1239
$938–$1542
评级
持有
confidence 86/100
上行空间
+4.0%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$1052.96
MoS level · 15%
市值
$66.6B
P/E fwd 25.5
英文原文ZH
翻译期间显示英文原文
此报告尚未翻译。翻译队列赶上后请在几分钟内刷新。

§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $1,239 with high case $1,542.
  • Implied upside of 4.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 86/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$1,239
Margin of safety
+3.8%
Confidence
86/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$1,191.19Price
Low $938.35
Mid $1,238.78
High $1,542.2

TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered
    Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered sole-source components.
  • Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream
    Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream.
  • Cycle upside
    High airline fleet utilization drives relentless aftermarket parts demand, cementing pricing power.

§2 看空情景

A severe aviation downcycle matching 2020 shocks combined with sustained high interest rates would expose TDG's extreme financial leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA.. A 20% drop in aftermarket revenues paired with ballooning interest costs on $30B+ of debt would severely impair free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. conversion, pulling equity valuation below the $938 downside floor.

该论点可能失败的方式

Regulatory Pricing Crackdown

15%· Low

DoD enforces pricing caps or retroactively audits sole-source pricing, structurally crushing gross margins and erasing the aftermarket premium.

FV impact
Severe multiple contraction dragging valuation down to the $938 downside scenario.
Trigger
1-3 Years

Aviation Downcycle Meets Debt

20%· Medium

Macroeconomic recession curtails air travel, slashing aftermarket demand while heavy debt servicing consumes all free cash flow.

FV impact
FCF squeeze pushes the Ke premium up, threatening a valuation drop below $938.
Trigger
1-2 Years

M&A Pipeline Exhaustion

15%· Low

Regulatory bodies block future acquisitions or targets disappear, breaking the inorganic growth engine that internal valuation cross-checks relies on.

FV impact
Long-term growth expectations fade, pulling the EV multiple down and reverting valuation toward trailing averages.
Trigger
3-5 Years
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Year-over-year operating margin compression exceeding 200 basis points.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Maintenance capex exceeding 3% of revenues structurally.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt servicing costs exceeding 40% of operating cash flow.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Inability to successfully close and integrate accretive bolt-on acquisitions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margins falling below 55% due to airline pushback or supply chain inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期间2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
营业收入$5.43B$6.59B$7.94B$8.83B+17.6%
毛利$3.10B$3.84B$4.67B$5.31B+19.7%
营业利润$2.22B$2.92B$3.58B$4.19B+23.7%
净利润$866.0M$1.30B$1.71B$2.07B+33.8%
每股收益（摊薄）$13.40$22.03$25.62$32.08+33.8%
EBITDA$2.46B$3.15B$3.81B$4.57B+23.0%
研发—————
销售管理费用$748.0M$780.0M$934.0M$921.0M+7.2%

质量评分

OCF / 净利润
0.98×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Fail
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
16.3%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

现金流

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

涵盖每个股票的完整报告
24 个月的评级存档
关注列表简报 + 评级变更提醒
以任意语言导出 PDF + DOCX
开始免费试用
可随时取消。
BALANCE SHEET FAQ

TDG balance sheet questions

  1. TDG (TDG)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.

FAQ

TDG — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, TDG trades close to fair value. The current price is $1191 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $1239 (range $938–$1542), which implies roughly 4.0% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of TDG also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder