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Energy growth above 10% through FY2029, accompanied by better consolidated margin and free cash flow, would make the mix benefit more durable.
Automotive revenue growth falls below 2% for two consecutive fiscal years through FY2029.
Sell. At $354.08 on 2026-09-04, the shares stand far above $24.84 Fair value and $33.44 Potential value.3
The main risk is automotive stagnation. Growth below 2% for two consecutive fiscal years would weaken sales, operating leverage, earnings, and free cash flow.
The clearest upside is sustained energy growth with better consolidated margin and cash generation. FY2025 energy revenue was already $12.77 billion, while remained positive.
The constructive cycle requires FY2027 revenue to reach the $120.77 billion analyst estimate from the FY2025 level of $94.83 billion.15
Sell because the report-date valuation leaves little room for an operating miss, even if the cyclical recovery occurs.
Sell because the report-date valuation leaves little room for an operating miss, even if the cyclical recovery occurs.
Tesla, Inc. provides service for its electric vehicles at its company-owned service locations and through Tesla Mobile Service technicians who perform work remotely at customers’ homes or other locations. Servicing the vehicles ourselves allows us to identify problems and implement solutions and improvements faster than traditional automobile manufacturers and their dealer networks. The connectivity of its vehicles also allows us to diagnose and remedy many problems remotely and proactively. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits. Additionally, the automotive segment also includes services and other, which includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collision, paid Supercharging sessions, automotive insurance business revenue, part sales and retail merchandise sales.
The energy generation and storage segment includes sales, leasing, and financing of energy generation and storage products, services related to such products and sales of energy generation incentives.
The harsh path combines automotive stagnation, weak margins, fading energy growth, negative free cash flow, and a lower normalized valuation. Each pressure reduces value per share through a separate channel.
This path would reduce sales, operating leverage, earnings, and self-funded investment. It would be disproved by sustained automotive growth, better margin, and positive free cash flow.
Automotive growth below 2% for two consecutive fiscal years would reduce consolidated sales, margin, earnings, and free cash flow.
Operating margin below 4% for two fiscal years would show that revenue growth is not restoring earnings power.
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
Because automotive was the dominant FY2025 revenue source, a breach would remove support from the largest segment. If pricing also weakens, consolidated sales, operating profit, and free cash flow could fall.
当前：FY2025 automotive revenue: $82.06 billion.
触发警报：Below 2% in each of two consecutive fiscal years through FY2029.
The moat rating is None. FY2025 automotive and energy revenue establish business scale, but these observations do not by themselves establish customer switching costs, protected pricing, or another durable structural advantage.
FY2025 operating income was $4.36 billion on $94.83 billion of revenue, while capital spending was $8.53 billion. These levels do not establish protected economic profit.5
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($24.84). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $5.0B after modeled capex of $4.6B, with terminal value at 45.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base path requires revenue recovery, operating margin at or above 4%, and positive annual free cash flow. It fails by FY2029 if automotive or energy breaches its two-year growth trigger.
A beat matters only if margin, energy mix, and free cash flow also improve.
Meeting forecasts would not close the valuation gap without stronger per-share economics.
A miss would weaken the recovery case and increase pressure on margins and cash.
FY2025 cash generation was strong relative to reported profit, but stock compensation remained a material owner cost.5
It drives consolidated sales and margin.6
FY2025 operating cash flow covered capital spending and left positive free cash flow. Two negative years would overturn the evidence for self-funded reinvestment.45
Capital spending and stock compensation must be judged together because both reduce per-share owner economics. FY2025 amounts were $8.53 billion and $2.83 billion, respectively.
FY2025 operating income and capital spending show the earnings and investment burden, but those observations do not establish a multi-period return-on-capital trajectory.
A comparable return spread is not established. The dated enterprise financing hurdle was 10.8953% on 2026-09-09.
FY2025 operating cash flow was $14.75 billion, capital spending was $8.53 billion, and free cash flow was $6.22 billion.
Positive free cash flow reduces near-term dependence on outside financing, provided investment needs do not rise faster than operating cash.
FY2025 stock-based compensation was $2.83 billion, while diluted average shares were 3.528 billion.
Continued share issuance can dilute earnings and cash attributable to each existing share.
| 营业收入 | US$94,827,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$77,733,000,000 |
| 毛利 | US$17,094,000,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$12,739,000,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$4,355,000,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$561,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$3,794,000,000 |
| 总资产 | US$137,806,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$16,513,000,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$68,642,000,000 |
| 总负债 | US$54,941,000,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$31,714,000,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$82,807,000,000 |
| 净利润 | US$5,519,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$11,497,000,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$2,911,000,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$2,121,000,000 |
| 其他经营调整项 | US$946,000,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$11,497,000,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$30,881,000,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$19,384,000,000 |
| 投资现金流出 | US$7,868,000,000 |
| 资本支出 | US$6,482,000,000 |
| 其他投资活动 | US$1,386,000,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$5,203,000,000 |
| 其他融资活动 | US$5,203,000,000 |
| 汇率影响 | US$183,000,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$17,576,000,000 |
| 投资现金流 | -US$7,868,000,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$5,203,000,000 |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-01-29 · SEC EDGAR
| 按经营分部划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive | US$820.6亿 | 86.5% | -6.3% |
| Energy Generation And Storage | US$127.7亿 | 13.5% | 26.6% |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2026-01-29 · SEC EDGAR
| 按地区划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US$476.3亿 | 50.2% | -0.2% |
| Other | US$262.4亿 | 27.7% | -9.6% |
| China | US$209.6亿 | 22.1% | 0.1% |
2026-09-09分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | US$70亿 | US$4亿 | -US$6.7亿 | -US$1.2亿 | -US$14亿 | US$12.8亿 | US$4.8亿 | US$3.3亿 | — | — | — | -US$10.8亿 | US$37.4亿 | — | US$33.9亿 | US$35亿 | US$58.9亿 | -9.5% | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-31 | US$117.6亿 | -US$1亿 | -US$19.6亿 | -US$6100万 | -US$34.8亿 | US$34.2亿 | US$7.7亿 | US$4.7亿 | — | — | — | -US$42亿 | US$44.2亿 | US$33.9亿 | US$33.7亿 | US$35.2亿 | US$88.3亿 | -13.9% | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-31 | US$214.6亿 | US$15.6亿 | -US$9.8亿 | US$21亿 | -US$300万 | US$21亿 | US$19亿 | US$7.5亿 | — | — | — | -US$23.4亿 | US$5.7亿 | US$33.7亿 | US$36.9亿 | US$44.9亿 | US$84.1亿 | -1.8% | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-31 | US$245.8亿 | US$21.7亿 | -US$8.6亿 | US$24.1亿 | US$10.8亿 | US$13.3亿 | US$21.5亿 | US$9亿 | — | — | — | -US$14.4亿 | US$15.3亿 | US$36.9亿 | US$62.7亿 | US$69.4亿 | US$104亿 | -0.3% | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-31 | US$315.4亿 | US$42.2亿 | US$7.2亿 | US$59.4亿 | US$27.9亿 | US$31.6亿 | US$23.2亿 | US$17.3亿 | — | — | — | -US$31.3亿 | US$99.7亿 | US$62.7亿 | US$193.8亿 | US$193.8亿 | US$84.6亿 | 6.3% | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | US$538.2亿 | US$96亿 | US$55.2亿 | US$115亿 | US$50.2亿 | US$64.8亿 | US$29.1亿 | US$21.2亿 | — | — | — | -US$78.7亿 | -US$52亿 | US$193.8亿 | US$175.8亿 | US$177.1亿 | US$42.5亿 | 12.1% | — | 7.7% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | US$814.6亿 | US$178.3亿 | US$125.6亿 | US$147.2亿 | US$75.5亿 | US$71.6亿 | US$35.4亿 | US$15.6亿 | — | — | -US$38.7亿 | -US$119.7亿 | -US$35.3亿 | US$181.4亿 | US$162.5亿 | US$221.9亿 | US$10.3亿 | 16.8% | — | 10.1% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | US$967.7亿 | US$148亿 | US$150亿 | US$132.6亿 | US$43.6亿 | US$89亿 | US$46.7亿 | US$18.1亿 | — | — | US$21.2亿 | -US$155.8亿 | US$25.9亿 | US$169.2亿 | US$164亿 | US$290.9亿 | US$26.8亿 | 9.2% | — | 13.1% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | US$976.9亿 | US$147.1亿 | US$70.9亿 | US$149.2亿 | US$35.8亿 | US$113.4亿 | US$53.7亿 | US$20亿 | — | — | US$28.6亿 | -US$187.9亿 | US$38.5亿 | US$171.9亿 | US$161.4亿 | US$365.6亿 | US$55.4亿 | 7.2% | — | 12.5% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | US$948.3亿 | US$117.6亿 | US$37.9亿 | US$147.5亿 | US$62.2亿 | US$85.3亿 | US$61.5亿 | US$28.3亿 | — | — | -US$6400万 | -US$154.8亿 | US$11.4亿 | US$170.4亿 | US$165.1亿 | US$440.6亿 | US$65.8亿 | 4.6% | — | 11.8% | — |
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) trades at 156.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 7.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 127.5x compares with a peer median of 19.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: General Motors Company, O'Reilly Automotive Inc., Ford Motor Company and Lucid Group, Inc., as of 2026-07-26 to 2026-09-08.
Industry capital spending was 2.1% of revenue and 1.49 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01. Tesla spent $8.53 billion in FY2025.5
The constructive cycle requires FY2027 revenue to reach the $120.77 billion analyst estimate from the FY2025 level of $94.83 billion.
The cycle weakens if automotive growth falls below 2% for two consecutive fiscal years, preventing scale from restoring consolidated margin.
Tesla is led by automotive, while Energy Generation and Storage provides a smaller but material second business.6
No long allocation is recommended while the rating is Sell; improvement in one concentration measure would not by itself change that instruction.. The report-date price exceeds both Fair value and Potential value.3
Reduce or exit while Sell remains in force. Use the operating triggers to confirm or reassess the thesis, not to delay the present positioning action.
The $354.08 report-date price is far above $24.84 Fair value and $33.44 Potential value.3
FY2027 revenue and earnings forecasts support recovery, but their levels do not bridge the valuation gap.1
Automotive concentration, margin pressure, and capital needs can prevent sales growth from becoming per-share earnings and cash.
Sell because the report-date price is far above our Fair value.3
Operational recovery and energy growth remain possible, but neither offsets the gap between the share price and the accepted value range.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Energy growth below 10% for two consecutive fiscal years would remove the expected mix benefit.
Two consecutive negative years would weaken self-funded investment and raise financing or dilution risk.
A normalized earnings multiple below 12x would mean investors pay less for each dollar of future profit.
A breach would show that sales are not reaching operating profit. That would leave less earnings and cash for each share and disprove the expected margin recovery.
当前：FY2025 operating income was $4.36 billion on $94.83 billion of revenue.
触发警报：Below 4% of annual revenue for two fiscal years.
A breach would delay diversification because energy remained much smaller than automotive in FY2025. It would also remove the expected support for consolidated growth and margin.
当前：FY2025 Energy Generation and Storage revenue: $12.77 billion.
触发警报：Below 10% in each of two consecutive fiscal years through FY2029.
Likelihood is lower than the operating risks because FY2025 free cash flow remained positive after capital spending, but severity is high. Repeated negative cash flow would make investment less self-funded and could raise borrowing or share issuance.
当前：FY2025 free cash flow: $6.22 billion after $8.53 billion of capital spending.
触发警报：Below $0 for two consecutive fiscal years.
A lower normalized valuation would reduce what investors pay for each dollar of future earnings, even if the operating recovery broadly occurs.
当前：Approved normalized assumption: 15x as of 2026-09-09.
触发警报：Below 12x normalized earnings within 60 months.
| Energy may diversify revenue, but its FY2025 revenue alone does not prove superior margins or lasting customer lock-in. | medium | Through FY2029 | Require sustained energy growth with improving consolidated margin and free cash flow before recognizing a durable advantage. |
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Upside persists only if energy becomes a larger profitable contributor. Slower energy growth or weak consolidated margin would disconfirm that path by FY2029.
Faster growth can diversify sales and support margin.6
It shows whether sales growth reaches operating profit.5
Positive cash supports investment without greater financing dependence.4
More shares reduce earnings attributable to each existing share.5
| FY2035 |
|---|
| Revenue | $106.04B | $120.77B | $130.44B | $138.26B | $145.18B | $150.98B | $156.27B | $160.96B | $164.98B | $168.28B |
| Operating income | $6.26B | $7.13B | $7.70B | $8.16B | $8.57B | $8.91B | $9.22B | $9.50B | $9.73B | $9.93B |
| NOPAT | $4.81B | $5.48B | $5.92B | $6.28B | $6.59B | $6.85B | $7.09B | $7.31B | $7.49B | $7.64B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $4.81B | $5.48B | $5.92B | $6.28B | $6.59B | $6.85B | $7.09B | $7.31B | $7.49B | $7.64B |
| Revenue growth | 11.8% | 13.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Tax rate | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 利润率 |
|---|
| TSLA | Tesla Inc. | $1.40T | 156.3x | 13.5x | 127.5x | 4.7% | — |
| GM | General Motors Company | 5.9x | 0.4x | 11.1x | 3.2% | 3.2% | |
| ORLY | O'Reilly Automotive Inc. | 24.1x | 3.8x | 19.3x | — | 20.2% | |
| F | Ford Motor Company | 7.6x | 0.3x | 26.1x | -18.3% | 1.9% | |
| LCID | Lucid Group, Inc. | 1.8x | -97.6% | -336.9% |
