Is The Trade Desk, Inc. overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, TTD looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 21.2 versus our fair value of USD 26.9; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 38.3. That implies roughly 27.0% upside to fair value at that date.

What is TTD's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives TTD a fair value of USD 26.9 and a potential value of USD 38.3. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for The Trade Desk, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy TTD now?

Our latest published rating for TTD, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy. The Trade Desk, Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 21.2 versus fair value of USD 26.9; potential value is USD 38.3. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for TTD?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents The Trade Desk, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is TTD's rating?

Our latest published rating for TTD, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 26.9, the potential value of USD 38.3, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 21.2).

What archetype is TTD?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-05-20, The Trade Desk, Inc. is classified as a growth infrastructure stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TTD.

TTD stock analysis

TTD stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

§3 竞争护城河EN

Wide

Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.

First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.

High switching costs for agency trading desks.

Network effects from data scale and UID2.0 identity standard.

经济利润

Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.

9/ 10

Wide

Sources of advantage

Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.Leading independent DSP scale and liquidity.Wide
First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.First-mover advantage in Connected TV (CTV) ecosystem.Wide
High switching costs for agency trading desks.High switching costs for agency trading desks.Wide
Network effects from data scale and UID2.0 identity standard.Network effects from data scale and UID2.0 identity standard.Wide

对护城河的已知威胁
威胁	严重程度	时间线	缓解措施
Walled garden policy shifts and data privacy tightening.	medium	Monitor	Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Emergence of competing independent SSP/DSP combinations.	medium	Monitor

§5 敏感性

折现率

终值增长

	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
9.7%	$30.36	$32.46	$34.88	$37.68	$40.98
10.7%	$26.88	$28.52	$30.36	$32.46	$34.88
11.7%	$24.11	$25.42	$26.88	$28.52	$30.36
12.7%	$21.87	$22.93	$24.11	$25.42	$26.88
13.7%	$20.00	$20.89	$21.87	$22.93	$24.11

行：折现率（盈利模型用 Ke，现金流模型用 WACC）。列：终值增长。

持续期变化（年）

Unavailable

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($26.88). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.

FCF 悬崖

FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $367.5M after capex $144.8M, with terminal value at 49.7% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.

§8 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
Period	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$1.58B	$1.95B	$2.44B	$2.90B	+22.4%
Gross profit	$1.30B	$1.58B	$1.97B	$2.28B	+20.6%
Operating income	$113.7M	$200.5M	$427.2M	$589.3M	+73.1%
Net income	$53.4M	$178.9M	$393.1M	$443.3M	+102.5%
EPS (diluted)	$0.11	$0.36	$0.78	$0.90	+101.5%
EBITDA	$168.1M	$280.9M	$514.7M	$705.1M	+61.3%
R&D	$319.9M	$411.8M	$463.3M	$525.1M	+18.0%
SG&A	$863.1M	$968.2M	$1.08B	$1.16B	+10.4%

现金流

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

最新营收29亿营收复合年增长率 +22.4%

营业利润率20.3%5个财务期间

最新自由现金流7.8亿FY2025

净现金2.2亿FY2025

利润表明细业务规模如何转化为报告利润。

StockMarketAgent.AI

财务历史数据
营业收入	2,896,284,000
营业成本	619,067,000
毛利	2,277,217,000
营业费用	1,687,896,000
营业利润	589,321,000
营业外项目及税项	-146,017,000
净利润	443,304,000

资产负债表概览所选期间已报告资产的持有结构与融资来源。

StockMarketAgent.AI

资产负债表明细数据
总资产	6,153,220,000
现金	658,175,000
流动资产	5,261,004,000
总负债	3,668,829,000
流动负债	3,265,997,000
股东权益	2,484,391,000

营收与利润业务规模如何转化为报告利润。

现金与债务可用流动性与总借款的对比。

现金创造能力经营现金流与自由现金流的对比。

盈利能力毛利率、营业利润率和净利率的变化。

2026-05-20分析所采用的时点财务数据。

财务历史数据
期间	营业收入	EBITDA	净利润	经营现金流	自由现金流	资本支出	折旧与摊销	股份支付	股份回购	已付股息	净债务发行	投资现金流	融资现金流	期初现金	期末现金	现金与投资	总债务	营业利润率	ROIC	WACC	ROIC−WACC利差
2021-12-31	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022-12-31	15.8亿	1.7亿	5338.5万	5.5亿	4.6亿	9188.5万	5442.5万	5亿	0	—	0	—	—	—	—	10.3亿	2.6亿	7.2%	—	—	—
2023-12-31	19.5亿	2.8亿	1.8亿	6亿	5.4亿	5502万	8041.8万	4.9亿	6.5亿	—	—	—	—	—	—	9亿	2.4亿	10.3%	—	—	—
2024-12-31	24.4亿	5.1亿	3.9亿	7.4亿	6.3亿	1.1亿	8749万	4.9亿	2.3亿	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.7亿	3.1亿	17.5%	—	—	—
2025-12-31	29亿	7.1亿	4.4亿	9.9亿	7.8亿	2.1亿	1.2亿	4.9亿	13.8亿	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.6亿	4.4亿	20.3%	—	—	—

§9 同业估值比较

The Trade Desk, Inc.TTD

股价 / 公允价值

公允价值US$26.88Report-date priceUS$21.16

评估日期2026年5月20日

经济护城河Wide

投资评分卡70 / 100

AppLovin CorporationAPP

股价 / 公允价值

公允价值US$270.62Report-date priceUS$266.13

评估日期2026年10月18日

经济护城河Narrow

投资评分卡77 / 100

NVIDIA CorporationNVDA

股价 / 公允价值

公允价值US$374.88Report-date priceUS$222.27

评估日期2026年9月19日

经济护城河Wide

投资评分卡84 / 100

The Trade Desk, Inc.TTD

股价 / 公允价值

公允价值US$26.88Report-date priceUS$21.16

评估日期2026年5月20日

经济护城河Wide

投资评分卡70 / 100

同业倍数和盈利能力
代码	名称	市值	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

TTD trades at 9.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.5x; EV/EBITDA of 12.6x against a peer median of 28.9x; 6 peers.

§11 仓位管理EN

仓位规模

High conviction but high beta (1.85) warrants moderate initial sizing. Algorithmic certainty sits at 75%.

风险

Trim exposure if forward growth stalls, CTV share gains flatline, or if price pushes into the upper $38+ bull range.

建仓批次
水平	操作	原因
Current / pullbacks	Accumulate aggressively on macro-driven cyclical pullbacks.	Accumulate aggressively on macro-driven cyclical pullbacks.

减仓批次
水平	操作
Thesis break	Trim exposure if forward growth stalls, CTV share gains flatline, or if price pushes into the upper $38+ bull range.

TTD	The Trade Desk Inc.	$9.9B	9.8x	3.4x	12.6x	—	—
APP	AppLovin Corporation		22.5x	26.8x	34.2x	266.4%	78.2%
OMC	Omnicom Group Inc.		5.9x	1.1x	9.2x	2.0%	11.9%
NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation		19.5x	24.9x	40.2x	101.5%	65.0%
GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.		26.8x	11.1x	28.9x	38.9%	36.1%
GOOG	Alphabet Inc. Class C		26.6x	11.0x	28.7x	38.9%	36.1%

Is The Trade Desk, Inc. overvalued?

What is TTD's fair value?

Should I buy TTD now?

What are the biggest risks for TTD?

What is TTD's rating?

What archetype is TTD?

The Trade Desk, Inc.

Names readers of TTD also follow

公司概览

Operating Profit Margin

Wide

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Multi-stage Moat Fade

Operating Profit Margin

Annual Revenue Growth

Gross Profit Margin

Return on Invested Capital

Operating Cash Flow Conversion Ratio

Forward Earnings

Cash flow DCF

Owner Earnings

PEG-adjusted Peer

Annual Revenue Growth

Gross Profit Margin

Return on Invested Capital

Operating Cash Flow Conversion Ratio