United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)

NYSE: UPS · USD

$105

-0.71 (-0.7%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: UPS rated Hold

United Parcel Service Inc.'s published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$91.9 / share

Potential value

$107 / share

Upside to FV

-1.2%

from $105

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$79.1B
Revenue (ttm)	91.4B
Net income (ttm)	4.4B
EPS (ttm)	$5.19
Shares out	850.8M
P/E (trailing)	20.3x
P/E (forward)	12.1x
Dividend	$6.56 (6.22%)
Volume	5,077,678
Beta	1.05

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 91.4B
Net income (ttm): 4.4B
EPS (ttm): $5.19
P/E (trailing): 20.3x
P/E (forward): 12.1x
Market cap: $79.1B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$97.29B	$100.34B	$90.96B	$91.07B	$88.66B	-2.3%
Gross profit	$17.43B	$20.08B	$17.71B	$17.06B	$16.03B	-2.1%
Operating income	$12.81B	$13.09B	$9.14B	$8.47B	$7.87B	-11.5%
Net income	$12.89B	$11.55B	$6.71B	$5.78B	$5.57B	-18.9%
EPS (diluted)	$14.68	$13.20	$7.80	$6.75	$6.56	-18.2%
EBITDA	$20.23B	$18.71B	$12.71B	$11.91B	$11.93B	-12.4%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$46.71B	$56.05B	$51.94B	$53.15B	$53.98B	+3.7%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ABBV	AbbVie Inc.	505.6B	80.8x	7.9x	17.7%	+3.7%	+29.1%	卖出
ABT	Abbott Laboratories	177.6B	38.2x	3.7x	7.2%	+2.7%	-17.2%	减持
ACN	Accenture plc	144.3B	18.0x	2.0x	27.9%	+8.0%	+0.4%	持有
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	持有
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	113B	25.3x	5.1x	62.8%	+7.7%	+4.5%	持有
ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	持有

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$91.92

-1.2% from spot

In the Base case, UPS executes on its core operational restructuring. Domestic hub automation increases to planned levels, holding per-piece cost growth below base pricing gains of 250 to 350 basis points. Amazon customer concentration continues to glide down from 10.6% as higher-yielding commercial SMB and healthcare shipments backfill capacity. Consolidated revenue expands at 3.10% in FY2026 to $91,409,491,000 and 3.79% in FY2027 to $94,873,910,709, while operating margin recovers from 8.87% sequentially through FY2026 and FY2027. Diluted EPS recovers from $6.56 to $7.20 in FY2026 and $8.07 in FY2027. Free cash flow expands to cover the annual dividend, supporting the synthesized fair value midpoint of $91.92 based on a 13.5x terminal P/E multiple.

Operating margin normalizes progressively from FY2026 to FY2027 and reaches targeted efficiency by FY2030.
Revenue grows 3.10% in FY2026 and 3.79% in FY2027 to reach $94.87B.
Net reinvestment rate scales down from FY2026 through FY2030 as capex normalizes.
Terminal P/E multiple is set at 13.50x.

Bull20%

Price target

$106.89

+14.9% from spot

In the Bull case, domestic hub sortation automation surpasses target penetration and generates unit cost reductions beyond initial targets, driving automated volume growth past the 337 million package increase recorded YoY. High-margin commercial SMB shipments rapidly backfill shed Amazon volume, lifting U.S. Domestic Package operating margin toward target levels. Concurrently, expanding Asian export lane volume and specialized biopharma cold chain throughput through Cologne lift international operating profit. Consolidated FY2027 diluted EPS reaches the consensus high of $8.66, free cash flow generation expands, and multiple expansion toward peer levels supports valuation upside reaching $106.89.

Domestic hub automation exceeds planned milestones, lifting domestic package operating margin toward peak efficiency.
Commercial SMB volume rapidly replaces shed Amazon volume with superior parcel yield.
Consolidated FY2027 diluted EPS reaches high consensus estimate of $8.66.
Terminal P/E multiple expands toward top-tier industrial peer levels as cash conversion improves.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($91.92). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
7.3%	$105	$108	$111	$114	$117
7.8%	$98.5	$101	$103	$106	$109
8.3%	$93.1	$94.9	$91.9	$99.1	$101
8.8%	$88.3	$89.9	$91.5	$93.3	$95.3
9.3%	$84.1	$85.5	$86.9	$88.4	$90.0

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E12.1

P25 13.2P50 18.7P75 25.2

Trailing P/E17.4

P25 16.3P50 24.9P75 35.2

ROE28.6

P25 -18.2P50 6.2P75 16.4

ROIC14.3

P25 -10.4P50 5.2P75 12.3

Benchmarks · 1M

All UPS indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

293

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 293 of 293 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001090727
Company name	United Parcel Service, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	911312106
Earnings date	2026-10-27
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	460,000
Employees change	-30,000
Employees growth	-6.12%
Enterprise value	$113.1B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1907
In index	SP500
Industry	Integrated Freight & Logistics
IPO date	1999-11-10
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US9113121068
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-17
Last earnings date	2026-10-27
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$89.7B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-26
Options	Yes
Price	$105.38
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	4210
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	UPS
U.S. state	Georgia
Website	https://www.ups.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	15.27x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	22.11x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	17.96x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	16.69x
Earnings yield	4.92%
EV/Earnings	25.47x
EV/EBIT	15.41x
EV/EBITDA	10.1x
EV/FCF	17.73x
EV/Sales	1.23x
FCF / EV yield	5.64%
FCF yield	7.12%
Forward EV/Sales	1.19x
Forward P/E	13.23x
Forward P/S	0.94x
Graham number	45.35838
Graham upside	-56.71%
Industry forward P/E	15.89x
Industry P/E	20.93x
Lynch fair value	$25.95
Lynch upside	-75.24%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	14.32x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	9.73x
P/B ratio	6.02x
P/E ratio	20.31x
P/FCF ratio	14.04x
P/OCF ratio	9.6x
P/S ratio	0.98x
PEG ratio	1.8x
Price / tangible book value	16.36x
Price/EBITDA ratio	7.99x
Sector forward P/E	26.03x
Sector P/E	40.37x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	8%
EBITDA margin	12.21%
Effective tax rate	24.12%
FCF margin	6.95%
Gross margin	21.38%
Operating margin	8%
Pretax margin	6.38%
Profit margin	4.84%
Profit per employee	$9,613
Profitable quarters	22
Profitable years	29
Revenue per employee	$198,626
ROA	6.34%
ROA (5Y)	9.59%
ROCE	12.79%
ROE	28.65%
ROE (5Y)	68.85%
ROIC	14.29%
ROIC (5Y)	25.61%
SBC / revenue	0.14%
Tax / revenue	1.54%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-19.83%
EPS growth (Q)	-11.6%
EPS growth (QoQ)	92.55%
EPS growth 10Y	-0.78%
EPS growth 3Y	-19.37%
EPS growth 5Y	-6.74%
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	44.47%
FCF growth (Q)	59.13%
FCF growth (QoQ)	1,349.4%
FCF growth 3Y	4.54%
FCF growth 5Y	-4.92%
Gross profit growth	0.65%
Gross profit growth (Q)	3.58%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-2.98%
Gross profit growth 5Y	-2.31%
Net income growth	-19.63%
Net income growth (Q)	-11.29%
Net income growth (QoQ)	92.55%
Net income growth 3Y	-19.75%
Net income growth 5Y	-7.27%
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	9.75%
OCF growth (Q)	16.96%
OCF growth (QoQ)	237.95%
OCF growth 10Y	3.83%
OCF growth 3Y	-5.93%
OCF growth 5Y	-6.41%
Operating income growth	-7.84%
Operating income growth (Q)	-16.89%
Operating income growth 3Y	-10.45%
Operating income growth 5Y	-9.2%
Revenue growth	2.11%
Revenue growth (Q)	6.72%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	0.08%
Revenue growth 10Y	4.29%
Revenue growth 3Y	-0.61%
Revenue growth 5Y	-0.65%
Revenue growth quarters	1
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-2.9B
Depreciation and amortization	$3.8B
EBIT	$7.3B
EBITDA	$11.2B
EPS	$5.19
FCF per share	$7.46
Financing cash flow	$-5.4B
Free cash flow	$6.4B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$6.2B
Gross profit	$19.5B
Income taxes	$1.4B
Investing cash flow	$-3.8B
Net borrowing	$-187M
Net cash flow	$73M
Net income	$4.4B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$9.2B
Operating income	$7.3B
Revenue	$91.4B
Stock-based compensation	$127M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	2.91
Book value per share	$17.62
Debt / EBITDA	2.2
Debt / equity	2.02
Debt / FCF	4.77
Goodwill	$5.6B
Interest coverage	6.69
Long-term assets	$53.4B
Long-term liabilities	$42.1B
Net cash (debt)	$-23.5B
Net cash / market cap	-26.31%
Net debt / EBITDA	2.1
Net debt / equity	1.56
Net debt / FCF	3.69
Piotroski F-Score	4
Property, plant and equipment	$42B
Shareholders' equity	$15B
Tangible book value	$5.5B
Tangible book value per share	$6.41
Total assets	$72.7B
Total cash	$6.8B
Total debt	$30.3B
Total liabilities	$57.7B
WACC	8.16%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.27
Current assets	$19.3B
Current liabilities	$15.6B
Current ratio	1.24
Net working capital	$-1.4B
Quick ratio	1.11
Working capital	$3.7B
Working capital turnover	22.39

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-0.12%
Dividend growth	0.15%
Dividend growth (10Y)	7.89%
Dividend growth (3Y)	0.93%
Dividend growth (5Y)	10.02%
Dividend growth years	16
Dividend payment date	2026-09-03
Dividend payment years	28
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$6.56
Dividend yield	6.23%
Ex-dividend date	2026-08-17
FCF payout ratio	87.88%
Last dividend	$1.64
Payout ratio	126.4%
Shareholder yield	6.14%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	-2.91%
10Y return CAGR	3.67%
10Y total return	43.33%
150-day SMA	$103.30
15Y price change	46.67%
15Y return CAGR	6.3%
15Y total return	149.93%
1D price change	-0.67%
1M price change	11.69%
1M total return	11.69%
1W price change	6.52%
1W total return	6.52%
1Y price change	17.62%
1Y return CAGR	25.36%
1Y total return	25.35%
20-day SMA	$97.24
200-day SMA	$104.57
20Y price change	40.16%
20Y return CAGR	5.2%
20Y total return	175.58%
3M price change	-7.09%
3M total return	-5.61%
3Y price change	-22.17%
3Y return CAGR	-2.6%
3Y total return	-7.6%
50-day SMA	$98.99
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$122.41
52-week high date	2026-02-12
52-week low	$90.84
52-week low date	2025-11-20
5Y price change	-50.55%
5Y return CAGR	-8.93%
5Y total return	-37.36%
6M price change	-3.05%
6M total return	0.16%
After-hours change	-0.07%
After-hours close	$105.38
After-hours price	$105.31
All-time high	$233.72
All-time high date	2022-02-01
All-time low	$37.99
All-time low date	2009-03-09
Average true range (ATR)	$2.43
Average volume	4.8M
Beta (1Y)	0.43
Beta (2Y)	0.78
Beta (5Y)	1.05
Change from 52-week high	-13.91%
Change from 52-week low	16.01%
Change from all-time high	-55.1%
Change from all-time low	176.23%
Change from open	-0.02%
Day's gap	-0.65%
Dollar volume	$535.1M
High price	$106.29
Low price	$104.00
Monthly RSI	46.43
Open price	$105.40
Position in 52-week range	60.26%
Premarket change	-0.13%
Premarket close	$106.09
Premarket price	$105.95
Premarket volume	7.2K
Previous close	$106.09
Price vs 150-day SMA	1.59%
Price vs 20-day SMA	7.92%
Price vs 200-day SMA	0.35%
Price vs 50-day SMA	6.01%
Relative volume	1.05
RSI	67.97
Sharpe ratio	0.77
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	-0.18
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	-0.26
Sortino ratio	1.25
Sortino ratio (3Y)	-0.05
Sortino ratio (5Y)	-0.16
Volume	5.1M
Weekly RSI	53.6
YTD price change	5.8%
YTD total return	10.82%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	748.5M
Float percentage	87.97%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.12%
Shares change (YoY)	0.12%
Shares held by insiders	0.06%
Shares held by institutions	63.83%
Shares outstanding	850.8M
Short % of float	3.79%
Short % of shares	3.33%
Short ratio	6 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	515

Deeper analysis on UPS

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this UPS report

What is the latest published UPS stock rating?

United Parcel Service Inc. is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full UPS analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/UPS/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for UPS?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives UPS a fair value of USD 92 and a potential value of USD 107. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the UPS page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldUPS · Fair value $91.9-1.2%

Read full analysis →

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)

Our latest published analysis: UPS rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · UPS

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All UPS indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on UPS

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	4.5
Management	7.5
Balance Sheet	3.5
Profitability	7.0
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	6.0
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	6.0
Capital Efficiency	6.5