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WDAY trades against a final fair-value range of $65.95-$124.70, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $66.0, high $125, with mid-point at $95.3.
Stock analysis

WDAY fair value $66–$125

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-10下次更新: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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股价
$127.83
▼ -32.56 (-25.47%)
公允价值
$95
$66–$125
评级
卖出
confidence 87/100
上行空间
-25.5%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$80.98
MoS level · 15%
市值
$31.9B
P/E fwd 10.3
英文原文ZH
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§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $95 with high case $125.
  • Implied downside of 25.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$95
Margin of safety
-34.2%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$127.83Price
Low $65.95
Mid $95.27
High $124.7

WDAY trades against a final fair-value range of $65.95-$124.70, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Extremely high switching costs for
    Extremely high switching costs for enterprise ERP and HCM systems.
  • Deeply embedded core workflow integrations
    Deeply embedded core workflow integrations across corporate HR.
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-checks ($179) is recklessly anchored to an unsustainable 19% implied growth rate.

§2 看空情景

Under severe macroeconomic contraction, enterprise IT budgets freeze. While Workday's subscription model cushions the immediate revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. blow, new logo acquisition stalls entirely. Margin expansion collapses as sales efficiency drops, keeping GAAP profitability heavily depressed by sticky SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. costs.

该论点可能失败的方式

HCM Market Saturation

· High

Core HCM market saturates fully, permanently capping organic top-line growth at low single digits.

FV impact
-35% ($82/share)
Trigger
12-24 months

Financials Cross-sell Stagnation

· Medium

Failure to displace deeply entrenched Oracle and SAP cloud financials deployments stunts TAM expansion.

FV impact
-25% ($95/share)
Trigger
24-36 months

SBC Valuation Reckoning

· Medium

The market ceases to forgive non-cash SBC, forcing GAAP-based valuation multiples to violently compress.

FV impact
-48% ($65/share)
Trigger
12-18 months
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Subscription billings growth decelerating below 10%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation expense rising above 18% of total revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention rate dipping below 100%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contracting structurally below 70%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Pace of share repurchases failing to offset SBC dilution.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期间2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
营业收入$5.14B$6.22B$7.26B$8.45B$9.55B+16.8%
毛利$3.71B$4.51B$5.49B$6.38B$7.23B+18.1%
营业利润$-116.0M$-182.0M$183.0M$499.0M$1.02B—
净利润$29.0M$-367.0M$1.38B$526.0M$693.0M+121.1%
每股收益（摊薄）$0.12$-1.44$5.21$1.95$2.59+115.5%
EBITDA$377.0M$206.0M$752.0M$1.08B$1.47B+40.5%
研发$1.88B$2.25B$2.46B$2.63B$2.68B+9.3%
销售管理费用$1.95B$2.44B$2.84B$3.25B$3.53B+16.0%

质量评分

Piotroski F 评分
8 / 9
0–9 质量综合
Altman Z 评分
2.69
破产风险 (>3 安全)
Beneish M 评分
-2.78
盈利操纵风险
OCF / 净利润
4.24×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Pass
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
7.6%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

现金流

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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CASH FLOW FAQ

WDAY cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for WDAY (WDAY) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

WDAY — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, WDAY looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $128 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $95.3 (range $66.0–$125), which implies roughly 25.5% downside to the midpoint.

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