بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
CAG — frequently asked questions
Is Conagra Brands, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-22, CAG looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 14.7 USD versus our fair value of 26.7 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 41.5 USD. That implies roughly 81.2% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-22, gives CAG a fair value of 26.7 USD and a potential value of 41.5 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Conagra Brands, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy CAG now?
Our latest published rating for CAG, analyzed 2026-10-22, is Strong Buy. Conagra Brands, Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 14.7 USD versus fair value of 26.7 USD; potential value is 41.5 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for CAG?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-22 documents Conagra Brands, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is CAG's rating?
Our latest published rating for CAG, analyzed 2026-10-22, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 5.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 26.7 USD, the potential value of 41.5 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (14.7 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةStrong Buy
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$14.71
Fair value
$26.66
Potential value
$41.52
As of
2026-10-22
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
Significant equity multiple expansion and earnings power recovery as supply chain productivity, pricing realization, and balance sheet deleveraging normalize Conagra's valuation from a depressed 10.62x forward P/E toward peer multiple parity.
ما الذي سيغيّر تقييمنا
Walmart aggressively demands everyday low pricing concessions and increases private label shelf allocation while agricultural and packaging cost inflation remains sticky.
Conagra Brands represents a compelling Strong Buy opportunity, trading at $14.71 against a Fair value of $26.66 (81.2% implied upside) as market sentiment conflates non-cash GAAP goodwill impairments with resilient underlying cash generation exceeding $1,402.1M annually.5
Conagra Brands' equity presents a substantial valuation disconnect. At $14.71, the stock trades at 10.62x forward earnings, reflecting market concerns regarding leverage and retail volume elasticity. However, the reported GAAP net loss of -$1,916.2M in fiscal 2026 was driven by non-cash goodwill and trademark impairments rather than structural operational cash deterioration. On an underlying cash basis, Conagra generated $1,402.1M in and $978.7M in .
The company's core franchises remain operationally sound. The Refrigerated & Frozen segment ($4,641.8M in FY2026 revenue) demonstrated shelf stability, holding organic volume nearly flat while expanding dollar share across frozen vegetables, breakfast, and desserts. Simultaneously, the Grocery & Snacks segment ($4,610.1M in FY2026 revenue) maintained strong margins, demonstrating pricing power in meat snacks and popcorn.6
Capital allocation is focused on balance sheet deleveraging. Management is prioritizing cash flow toward debt paydown, supporting balance sheet strength while continuing to fund regular dividend distributions to shareholders.
Our valuation synthesis yields Fair value of $26.66, offering 81.2% upside from $14.71, with Potential value extending to $41.52. This substantial discount establishes an exceptional margin of safety as operational execution and balance sheet deleveraging unfold.
Compelling Valuation Disconnect to Underlying Cash Flow
Conagra trades at 10.62x forward earnings, offering 81.2% upside to Fair value of $26.66, as markets overlook $978.7M in FY2026 free cash flow.3,4
Defensible Cold-Chain and Frozen Shelf Space Dominance
The Refrigerated & Frozen division ($4,641.8M FY2026 revenue) benefits from embedded freezer placement and cold-chain scale that insulate brand equity from private label disruption.6
Visible Balance Sheet Deleveraging and High Dividend Support
Management is allocating excess cash flow toward balance sheet deleveraging, reducing debt while maintaining an attractive regular dividend for shareholders.
توصية الدار
Strong Buy: Conagra's equity is significantly undervalued as resilient free cash flow and core frozen brand stability drive progressive balance sheet deleveraging toward Fair value.
نظرة عامة على الشركة
Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) is one of North America's leading branded packaged food companies, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. The company manufactures and markets products across four primary reporting segments: Refrigerated & Frozen, Grocery & Snacks, Foodservice, and International, generating $11,281.6M in net sales in fiscal 2026.
Conagra's brand portfolio includes iconic household names such as Birds Eye, Marie Callender's, Healthy Choice, Banquet, Slim Jim, Duke's, Angie's BOOMCHICKAPOP, Hunt's, Duncan Hines, and Reddi-wip. Its commercial distribution is closely tied to major retail grocers, mass merchandisers, and club stores, with Walmart, Inc. and its affiliates representing approximately 29% of consolidated net sales.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
Under a severe operational stress test, primary retail partners demand aggressive promotional funding while agricultural inputs experience secondary cost inflation. If consolidated operating margin compresses to 9.0% and annual operating cash flow contracts toward $850M, free cash flow would be predominantly absorbed by dividend payments ($167.5M paid in Q1 FY27, or $670M annualized) and required capital expenditures ($550M guidance). This would halt balance sheet deleveraging on Conagra's $7,760.1M in total debt, keeping net debt to EBITDA elevated near 4.5x and increasing refinancing vulnerability.
Exit multiple contracts further amid persistent leverage overhang
In the Bear scenario, intense pushback from retail partners led by Walmart forces Conagra to increase trade promotional allowances. Consumers substitute branded frozen meals and canned staples with private label alternatives, causing prolonged volume contraction. While operating cash flow remains positive, high debt servicing costs and dividend commitments constrain capital flexibility, keeping net leverage elevated.
كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة
Retailer Margin Squeeze and Trade Promotion Escalation
Walmart represents 29% of net sales and aggressively pursues everyday low pricing while commodity input inflation remains sticky. Operating margin falls below 9.0% (a 300 bps shock against the 12.0% normalized assumption), severely compressing cash flow and equity value.6
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
Conagra Brands commands a defensible narrow economic moat rooted in physical shelf-space entrenchment, specialized cold-chain distribution, and established national scale. In the retail food sector, freezer space represents scarce real estate; grocers allocate frozen end-caps and display doors based on historical brand velocity. Brands such as Birds Eye, Marie Callender's, Healthy Choice, and Banquet maintain deeply established consumer awareness and retail positioning, generating $4,641.8M in Refrigerated & Frozen revenue in fiscal 2026. In Q1 FY2027, the segment proved resilient, holding organic volume nearly flat at -0.1% while gaining market share across frozen vegetables, frozen breakfast, and frozen desserts.
The company's ambient Grocery & Snacks division complements the frozen franchise by contributing $4,610.1M in revenue and $885.0M in operating profit in fiscal 2026,. While center-store shelf-stable categories face price elasticity, impulse snacking offerings like Slim Jim provide strong pricing realization, supporting a segment operating margin of 19.5% in Q1 FY2027. Conagra's scale allows it to integrate directly into the inventory systems of the nation's largest retailers, notably Walmart, which accounts for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales.
Despite these structural advantages, the moat is bounded as Narrow rather than Wide due to the absence of meaningful customer switching costs and the bargaining leverage wielded by consolidated retail mass merchants. When food inflation accelerates, retailers can push back on pricing or allocate promotional support toward store brands. Nonetheless, the high capital requirements of nationwide cold-chain manufacturing and distribution ensure that Conagra's shelf-space advantages remain durable against new market entrants.
الربح الاقتصادي
Conagra's reported GAAP accounting metrics for fiscal 2026 were distorted by $2,929.6M in non-cash goodwill and trademark impairment writedowns, resulting in an operating loss of -$1,628.4M and net loss of -$1,916.2M. However, normalized operational cash generation delivered $1,402.1M in operating cash flow and $978.7M in free cash flow. Against a cost of equity of 6.05% and WACC of 11.65% (driven by a 52.5% debt weight and 19.69% pre-tax cost of debt on $7,760.1M in total debt), underlying economic profit remains positive once non-cash impairments are excluded.2,3,4,5
5.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Entrenched Cold-Chain Distribution and Freezer Shelf-Space Integration — The Refrigerated & Frozen segment generated $4,641.8M in net sales in FY2026 and maintained organic volume nearly flat at -0.1% in Q1 FY27. Entrenched freezer retail distribution and temperature-controlled logistics create physical barriers to entry for competitors.Moderate
02National Retail Scale and Direct Supply-Chain Integration with Primary Grocers — Walmart and its affiliates accounted for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales in FY2026 and FY2025. This deep supply-chain integration enables high retail inventory velocity and logistics efficiencies across national store footprints, supporting $1,402.1M in operating cash flow.Moderate
03
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
Retailer Trade Promotion Escalation and Private Label Expansion at Walmart
high
12 to 24 months
Differentiate core offerings through pack-size versatility, premium ingredients, and joint category growth planning with retail buyers.
Consumer Price Elasticity and Trade-Down in Shelf-Stable Grocery
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
القيمة العادلة
تغير المدة (سنوات)
-5
-2
0
+2
+5
القيمة العادلة
26.54 US$
26.60 US$
26.66 US$
26.71 US$
26.79 US$
مدة الميزة التنافسية: 5 سنوات في الحالة الأساسية المميزة. تبقى الافتراضات الأخرى ثابتة.
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($26.66). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
In the Bull scenario, category demand across Refrigerated & Frozen and Grocery & Snacks rebounds as consumer purchasing power recovers. Conagra gains market share in frozen vegetables, breakfast, and meat snacks. Pricing power remains intact while packaging and ingredient deflation expands gross margins. Elevated free cash flow enables management to rapidly retire senior debt, reducing interest expense and triggering a comprehensive equity multiple re-rating.
A beat confirms that pricing realization and productivity initiatives are successfully shielding margins against retail promotional demands.
متوافق
Maintain Strong Buy; Maintain planned portfolio weighting, audit seasonal working capital inventory unwind, and monitor promotional allowance stability at primary retail accounts.
المُحفِّز: Organic net sales performance tracking within guided ranges, adjusted operating margin stabilizing in line with management targets, and adjusted EPS meeting consensus forecasts
Performance in line with full-year guidance ($1.40-$1.50 adjusted EPS and 10.0%-10.5% margin) keeps balance sheet deleveraging on track.
دون التوقعات
Downgrade the rating; Re-assess center-store demand elasticity, pause incremental capital deployment, and audit customer shelf space retention across key refrigerated and grocery categories.
المُحفِّز: Organic net sales contracting more sharply than forecast, adjusted operating margin deteriorating below guidance thresholds, or net leverage expanding
Conagra's underlying earnings quality is characterized by strong cash conversion and transparent non-operating adjustments. In Q1 FY2027, the bridge between reported GAAP EPS of $0.36 and adjusted EPS of $0.41 reflected $29.5M in pre-tax comparability items: $9.7M in restructuring plans, $8.1M in legacy legal matters, $3.5M in executive transition expenses, $3.0M in environmental remediation, and $5.2M in corporate hedging losses. In fiscal 2026, reported GAAP net loss of -$1,916.2M was driven by $2,929.6M in non-cash goodwill and brand impairment writedowns, while operating cash flow remained robust at $1,402.1M.5
زخم التقديرات
Sell-side consensus estimate momentum has stabilized following the Q1 FY2027 earnings release. Consensus diluted EPS for FY2027 stands at $1.46 and FY2028 stands at $1.50. Across 16 contributing analysts, revisions have remained flat, aligning with management's reaffirmed FY2027 guidance range of $1.40 to $1.50 adjusted EPS.1
المقاييس التي يجب مراقبتها قبل الإعلان
01
المقياس:
Organic Net Sales Growth Trajectory
الحالي-1.1% in Q1 FY2027 (-2.1% volume, +1.0% price/mix)
لماذا يهم
Measures whether retail volume is stabilizing following post-inflationary price adjustments.
Conagra displays robust cash generation that contrasts sharply with reported accounting losses. In fiscal 2026, the company generated $1,402.1M in operating cash flow and $978.7M in free cash flow after $423.4M in capital expenditures. Although Q1 FY2027 reported seasonal operating cash flow of -$4.2M and free cash flow of -$127.9M due to working capital inventory build ($248.6M cash outflow) and litigation timing, management reaffirmed full-year FY2027 guidance targeting free cash flow conversion of greater than 90%. This structural cash conversion supports the $0.35 quarterly dividend ($1.40 annualized) and enables systematic debt reduction.4,5
تخصيص رأس المال
Conagra's capital allocation framework prioritizes balance sheet deleveraging and dividend continuity. In Q1 FY2027, the company paid $167.5M in cash dividends ($0.35 per share) while restricting common share repurchases to $44.0M. Full-year FY2027 outlines of approximately $550M and a target year-end net ratio of approximately 4.0x. Management has directed excess toward debt repayment, retiring $193.0M in year-over-year to reduce net obligations to $7,388.5M. Discretionary M&A and large-scale share buybacks remain paused until leverage approaches 3.5x.
Reported GAAP ROIC was severely negative in FY2026 following $2,929.6M in non-cash goodwill and trademark impairment writedowns, which drove reported operating income to -$1,628.4M. As non-cash impairment charges normalize and operating income recovers toward 11.0%-12.0% ($1,191.1M EBIT in FY2027 and $1,212.1M in FY2028), underlying return on invested capital will inflect back toward 7.5%-8.5%.
Conagra's normalized operational ROIC of ~7.5%-8.0% exceeds its moderate cost of equity of 6.05%, but currently trails its debt-heavy WACC of 11.65%. This WACC reflects a 52.5% debt weight and a pre-tax cost of debt of 19.69% on $7,760.1M in total debt. Sustained balance sheet debt retirement is the critical catalyst required to lower WACC below normalized operating returns.
أحدث إيرادات11.3 مليار US$معدل النمو السنوي المركب للإيرادات +4.0%
هامش التشغيل-14.4%10 فترات مالية
أحدث تدفق نقدي حر978.7 مليون US$FY2026
صافي الدين7 مليار US$FY2026
تفصيل قائمة الدخلكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.31 أغسطس 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
الإيرادات2.6 مليار US$تكلفة الإيرادات−2 مليار US$إجمالي الربح618.7 مليون US$المصروفات التشغيلية−350.3 مليون US$الدخل التشغيلي268.4 مليون US$البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب−94.1 مليون US$صافي الدخل174.3 مليون US$
بيانات التاريخ المالي
الإيرادات
2,595,900,000 US$
تكلفة الإيرادات
1,977,200,000 US$
إجمالي الربح
618,700,000 US$
المصروفات التشغيلية
350,300,000 US$
الدخل التشغيلي
268,400,000 US$
البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب
-94,100,000 US$
صافي الدخل
174,300,000 US$
لمحة عن الميزانية العموميةكيفية الاحتفاظ بالأصول المُبلغ عنها وتمويلها في الفترة المحددة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تكوين الأصولمصادر التمويل
إجمالي الأصول17.3 مليار US$النقد218 مليون US$الأصول المتداولة2.9 مليار US$إجمالي الالتزامات10.9 مليار US$الالتزامات المتداولة3.2 مليار US$حقوق المساهمين6.4 مليار US$
بيانات تفصيل الميزانية العمومية
إجمالي الأصول
17,274,400,000 US$
النقد
218,000,000 US$
الأصول المتداولة
2,882,100,000 US$
إجمالي الالتزامات
10,916,800,000 US$
الالتزامات المتداولة
3,188,000,000 US$
حقوق المساهمين
6,357,600,000 US$
جسر التدفق النقديكيف تحول التدفق النقدي التشغيلي إلى تدفق نقدي حر في FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تسوية التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
صافي الدخل1.2 مليار US$الإهلاك والإطفاء+390.2 مليون US$التعويض القائم على الأسهم+41.5 مليون US$تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى+107.8 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي1.7 مليار US$
تسوية النقد من بداية الفترة إلى نهايتها
النقد في بداية الفترة77.7 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي+1.7 مليار US$التدفق النقدي الاستثماري−542.2 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التمويلي−1.2 مليار US$تأثير سعر الصرف−2.4 مليون US$النقد في نهاية الفترة68 مليون US$
1.7 مليار US$ − 389.3 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الحر 1.3 مليار US$
بيانات جسر التدفق النقدي
صافي الدخل
1,152,400,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل
1,691,900,000 US$
الإهلاك والإطفاء
390,200,000 US$
التعويض القائم على الأسهم
41,500,000 US$
تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى
107,800,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
1,691,900,000 US$
النقد المتاح
1,769,600,000 US$
النقد في بداية الفترة
77,700,000 US$
التدفق الاستثماري الخارج
542,200,000 US$
النفقات الرأسمالية
389,300,000 US$
أنشطة استثمارية أخرى
152,900,000 US$
التدفق التمويلي الخارج
1,158,300,000 US$
إعادة شراء الأسهم
64,000,000 US$
أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة
669,200,000 US$
صافي سداد الدين
406,900,000 US$
أنشطة تمويلية أخرى
18,200,000 US$
تأثير سعر الصرف
2,400,000 US$
النقد في نهاية الفترة
68,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي الاستثماري
-542,200,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التمويلي
-1,158,300,000 US$
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2026-05-31.
11.3 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة
Refrigerated And Frozen4.6 مليار US$41.1%−0.4% على أساس سنوي
Grocery And Snacks4.6 مليار US$40.9%−5.9% على أساس سنوي
Foodservice1.1 مليار US$9.9%+1.9% على أساس سنوي
International913.9 مليون US$8.1%−4.5% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-07-15 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
Refrigerated And Frozen
4.6 مليار US$
41.1%
-0.4%
Grocery And Snacks
4.6 مليار US$
40.9%
-5.9%
Foodservice
1.1 مليار US$
9.9%
1.9%
International
913.9 مليون US$
8.1%
-4.5%
الإيرادات والأرباحكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
النقد والدينالسيولة المتاحة مقارنة بإجمالي الاقتراض.
توليد النقدالتدفق النقدي التشغيلي مقارنة بالتدفق النقدي الحر.
Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) trades at 10.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 11.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 8.5x compares with a peer median of 8.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The Kraft Heinz Company, The Campbell's Company, General Mills Inc. and Hormel Foods Corporation, as of 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Contraction
The packaged food sector is operating in a capital contraction phase, evidenced by an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 2.3% and a capex-to-depreciation benchmark of 1.34. Packaged food peers have curtailed capacity expansions to focus on supply chain consolidation and debt paydown.
دورة صعودية
In an industry upcycle, consumer purchasing power stabilizes, retail trade promotional intensity subsides, and agricultural input cost deflation expands gross margins toward 27.0%, allowing packaged food producers to grow organic sales and expand operating margins above 12.0%.
دورة هبوطية
In an industry downcycle, prolonged consumer real wage stagnation accelerates trade-down to private label store brands, forcing branded manufacturers into escalating trade promotional discounts that compress operating margins toward 9.0% and impair levered balance sheets.
الاتجاهات طويلة الأمد
الاتجاه
التأثير
ملاحظة
Convenient Dining and Frozen Meal Penetration
positive
Sustained consumer demand for convenient, high-protein dining supports recurring household penetration for single-serve frozen meals, where Conagra holds leading market share through Healthy Choice and Marie Callender's.
Retail Grocer Channel Consolidation
negative
Mass merchandisers, led by Walmart at 29% of Conagra's net sales, exert formidable retail bargaining power, requiring promotional trade spending to defend shelf allocation.
Growth in Impulse Snacking Occasions
positive
التموضع
Conagra maintains an advantaged operational position in frozen foods ($4,641.8M FY2026 revenue) where cold-chain capital barriers limit private label competition, but faces higher cyclical vulnerability in center-store grocery where consumers exhibit price sensitivity.6
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
3-4%
A 3-4% portfolio weighting balances substantial valuation upside (81.2% to fair value midpoint of $26.66) and a high dividend yield against elevated balance sheet debt ($7,760.1M total debt) and customer concentration risk (29% at Walmart).3,6
المخاطر
Risk is mitigated by non-cyclical demand for grocery staples, resilient underlying cash generation, and disciplined dividend support. Portfolio exposure is strictly capped at targeted position limits to manage balance sheet refinancing sensitivity and retail customer concentration.
Net leverage expanding above targeted deleveraging milestones
Pause incremental capital additions and reassess free cash flow allocation toward debt paydown.
§12 وجهات نظر المستثمرينEN
Deep Value and Fundamental Investor
Buy
Trades at 81.2% upside to Fair value of $26.66 relative to $14.71 and 10.62x forward earnings, offering exceptional risk-adjusted return potential as non-cash impairments roll off.3
Income and Cash Flow Investor
Buy
Supported by $978.7M in FY2026 free cash flow and strong underlying cash generation, fully protecting dividend distributions.4
Risk-Conscious / Defensive Turnaround Investor
Hold
Conservative investors may prefer to observe sustained volume stabilization in Grocery & Snacks and debt reduction progress before aggressive position sizing.
§14 التوصية النهائيةEN
إجراء
شراء قوي
Conagra Brands presents an exceptional value investment opportunity with 81.2% upside to our Fair value of $26.66. At $14.71, the equity conflates non-cash GAAP goodwill impairments with operational health, ignoring over $1,402.1M in annual operating cash flow and durable frozen and snack brand scale.5
While elevated balance sheet leverage ($7,760.1M total debt) and customer concentration at Walmart (29% of net sales) warrant disciplined position sizing, steady deleveraging and operating margin normalization provide a clear path to substantial capital appreciation.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
ملاحظات خاصة
مرئية لك وحدك. محفوظة على هذا الجهاز.
لا أحرف
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-22 · Published 2026-10-22 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 2 figuresCited in شجرة قرارات الأرباح
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Refinancing Shock and Debt Rating Downgrade
With total debt of $7,760.1M and elevated balance sheet leverage, debt refinancing in a higher-for-longer rate environment elevates borrowing costs. Incorporating normalized sector equity beta (0.6075) rather than suppressed regression beta pushes the equity discount rate up by 200 bps from Ke moderate of 6.05% to above 8.05%.2,3
FV impact
-28.6%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 18 months
Structural De-Rating Due to Private Label Share Loss and Leverage Overhang
Persistent volume contraction in core grocery (-5.4% Grocery & Snacks volume in Q1 FY2027) and high leverage (3.99x net debt to EBITDA) cause the market to permanently de-rate Conagra to a steep discount against peer medians (CPB 11.23x, KHC 11.90x). A 20% multiple contraction from 11.0x down to 8.8x reduces equity terminal values across earnings models.
Excessive customer concentration exacerbating pricing concessions and unilateral contract renegotiations.
الحالي:29% of net sales in FY2026
تنبيه إذا> 35% of net sales
05
Refrigerated & Frozen Organic Net Sales Growth
Breakdown of freezer category pricing power and volume loss indicating structural shelf share erosion to store-brand frozen meals.
الحالي:-1.6% organic net sales (-0.1% volume, -1.5% price/mix) in Q1 FY2027
تنبيه إذا< -5.0% organic net sales decline
Brand Portfolio Equity and Ambient Snacking Scale
— Conagra's Grocery & Snacks segment generated $4,610.1M in net sales and $885.0M in segment operating profit in FY2026,. Category leaders such as Slim Jim, Duke's, and Angie's BOOMCHICKAPOP occupy high-velocity checkout and impulse retail placement that store brands struggle to replicate.
Moderate
6 to 18 months
Deploy targeted promotional trade spend, price-point architecture, and supply chain productivity programs to protect operating margins.
Peer Promotional Competition Across Center-Store Aisles
medium
12 to 36 months
Concentrate capital allocation and marketing investment in high-margin frozen meals and meat snacks while maintaining promotional ROI discipline.
In the Base scenario, Conagra executes on its operational turnaround by balancing selective trade promotion with continuous productivity savings. Frozen food volumes stabilize near flat, while meat snacks and popcorn offset center-store grocery softness. Operating cash flow remains strong, fully funding regular dividend distributions and disciplined debt paydown to reduce net leverage steadily.
Validates whether supply chain cost savings and mix shift are defending profitability against sticky cost inflation.
Cash Flow Durability Decoupled from GAAP Accounting Impairment Charges
Conagra generated $1,402.1M in operating cash flow and $978.7M in free cash flow in FY2026 despite reporting a GAAP net loss of -$1,916.2M.
Reported losses reflect non-cash accounting adjustments rather than operational cash drain, indicating that the current equity price of $14.71 steeply discounts real cash generation power.
Disciplined Balance Sheet Deleveraging is Active and Visible
Net debt was reduced by $193.0M year-over-year to $7,388.5M at the end of Q1 FY2027, maintaining a 3.99x net leverage ratio.
Grocery & Snacks Generates High Margins Despite Center-Store Volume Softness
Grocery & Snacks delivered $204.9M in adjusted operating profit in Q1 FY2027 with a segment operating margin of 19.5%.
Pricing power in premium meat snacks and popcorn provides a durable profit foundation that buffers consolidated earnings against center-store volume elasticity.
General Mills Inc.GIS
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة36.95 US$Report-date price32.29 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةNarrow
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار41 / 100
Hormel Foods CorporationHRL
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة23.82 US$Report-date price20.83 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةNarrow
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار56 / 100
الهامش
CAG
Conagra Brands, Inc.
$7.0B
10.6x
0.6x
8.5x
-24.9%
—
KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company
$29.3B
11.9x
1.2x
8.1x
-8.8%
15.5%
CPB
The Campbell's Company
$6.2B
11.2x
0.6x
8.2x
10.1%
10.2%
GIS
General Mills Inc.
$17.9B
10.6x
1.0x
9.1x
-10.5%
15.2%
HRL
Hormel Foods Corporation
$11.7B
13.5x
1.0x
10.5x
4.3%
8.6%
Consumer snacking habits continue to outpace traditional meals, benefiting Conagra's high-margin meat snacks (Slim Jim, Duke's) and ready-to-eat popcorn within the Grocery & Snacks portfolio.
Store-Brand Encroachment in Center-Store Groceries
negative
Cumulative inflation has expanded private label market share in commoditized grocery categories such as canned vegetables and pasta sauces, restricting branded pricing power.
