بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
GNRC — frequently asked questions
Is Generac Holdings Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-20, GNRC screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 207 USD versus our fair value of 193 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 220 USD. That implies roughly 7.0% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20, gives GNRC a fair value of 193 USD and a potential value of 220 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Generac Holdings Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy GNRC now?
Our latest published rating for GNRC, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Hold. Generac Holdings Inc. screens modestly overvalued at the analysis-date price of 207 USD versus fair value of 193 USD; potential value is 220 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for GNRC?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-20 documents Generac Holdings Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is GNRC's rating?
Our latest published rating for GNRC, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 193 USD, the potential value of 220 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (207 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةHold
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$207.44
Fair value
$192.98
Potential value
$219.88
As of
2026-09-18
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
Accelerating electrical grid unreliability, recurring severe weather outages, and expanding commercial microgrid demand drive residential standby penetration beyond 6% and commercial power product revenue beyond $1,800.00M, generating fixed factory overhead absorption that expands operating margins toward 14.5% and lifts intrinsic value toward our Potential value of $219.88.
ما الذي سيغيّر تقييمنا
Prolonged mild weather seasons and high consumer borrowing rates reducing power outage urgency and delaying big-ticket home standby generator installations.
We assign a Hold rating to Generac Holdings Inc., as shares trade at $207.44 as of September 18, 2026, which sits 7.5% above our Fair value estimate of $192.98, balancing post-destocking operating leverage against near-term valuation and cyclical weather exposure.4
Our rating is Hold. For an ordinary investor, this means existing shareholders should maintain their positions rather than committing fresh capital, while prospective buyers should wait for a wider margin of safety or a clearer acceleration in shipment volumes.
The report was prepared at a price of $207.44 on September 18, 2026. This price stands 7.5% above our of $192.98, representing an upside of -7.0% to the central valuation, while offering 6.0% upside to our of $219.88.
The main risk to this outlook is that extended mild weather and elevated consumer borrowing costs suppress home generator awareness and delay big-ticket purchases. In that event, residential equipment shipments would fall, plant capacity would remain underutilized, and operating margins would stay compressed near the trough 6.87% recorded in FY2025. A reader would observe this risk taking hold if residential power product revenue drops below a $2,000.00M annual run-rate or quarterly operating margins fall below 6.00%.6,7
The primary driver that can unlock value is post-destocking volume recovery in residential standby systems combined with double-digit expansion in commercial microgrids and edge backup power. As factory shipments rebound, fixed manufacturing overhead is absorbed across higher sales, driving gross margins toward 40% and lifting operating margins toward 14.5%. This operating leverage would expand cash generation and allow per-share value to approach our Potential value of $219.88, though realizing that outcome remains secondary to our central Fair value.6,7
Category Leadership in Residential Standby Power
Generac commands dominant market share in North American residential home standby generation, supported by high consumer brand awareness and an exclusive network of over 8,500 certified installation dealers.7
Gross margins sustained at 38.29% during the FY2025 inventory destocking trough; volume recovery toward consensus revenue of $6,019.27M in FY2027 creates powerful fixed overhead absorption to lift operating margins toward 14.5%.1,6
Commercial and Industrial Grid Resilience Demand
Grid vulnerability and edge power needs drive demand for commercial generators and decentralized microgrids, where Generac generated $1,457.39M in FY2025, diversifying revenue away from residential storm cycles.7
توصية الدار
Hold: Generac's market leadership and post-destocking earnings recovery are balanced by valuation, with the stock trading above our Fair value of $192.98 amid cyclical weather exposure.
نظرة عامة على الشركة
Founded in 1959, Generac is a leading global designer, manufacturer, and provider of a wide range of energy technology solutions. Generac provides power generation equipment, energy storage systems, energy management devices & solutions, and other power products and services serving the residential, commercial, data center, telecom, rental, and industrial markets. The Company’s broad portfolio of energy technology offerings for homes and businesses enables its mission to Power a Smarter World and lead the evolution to more resilient, efficient, and innovative energy solutions. The Company has two reportable segments for financial reporting purposes – domestic and international. The domestic segment includes the legacy Generac business and all historical acquisitions based in the U.S. and Canada, all of which have revenues substantially derived from the U.S. and Canada.
The international segment includes all historical acquisitions not based in the U.S and Canada, all of which have revenues substantially derived from outside the U.S and Canada.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
A joint stress scenario combining weak outage activity, higher borrowing costs, and industrial competition tests the company's financial flexibility. In FY2025, operating profit dropped to $289.19M as channel destocking reduced overhead absorption. While annual interest expense of $70.70M remains covered by $437.98M in operating cash flow, persistent revenue growth below 7.35% would prolong margin compression and constrain free cash flow.
High consumer borrowing rates curb big-ticket purchases
Heavy industrial competitors constrain commercial standby pricing
A downside scenario exists where extended mild weather suppresses power outage urgency, high borrowing costs deter home improvement spending, and heavy engine competitors take commercial market share. Under these conditions, shipment growth remains weak and operating margins stay compressed in single digits. This path would be confirmed by residential equipment revenue falling below seasonal thresholds.
Operating margin fell to 6.87% in FY2025 on $289.19M operating income. An operating margin below 6.0% confirms failure of fixed overhead absorption, resulting in an estimated fair-value impact of -1.6%.6
FV impact
-1.6%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
01
operating_margin
Operating margin falling below 6.00% confirms failure of fixed factory overhead absorption and persistent channel inventory drag.
Generac's competitive moat is rated Narrow based on its established category leadership in North American residential home standby power. The core advantage stems from its specialized network of over 8,500 certified dealers who provide direct customer acquisition, installation, permitting, and recurring maintenance.
This proprietary distribution channel provides meaningful pricing power, enabling Generac to sustain a 38.29% gross margin in FY2025 during an industry downturn, comfortably exceeding diversified machinery peer Cummins at 25.77%. However, the moat is bounded by exposure to cyclical weather patterns and increasing competition in large commercial standby systems.
الربح الاقتصادي
Reported FY2025 operating income compressed to $289.19M on $4,209.15M of revenue, producing an operating margin of 6.87%. Economic profits are projected to recover as sales rebound toward $6,019.27M in FY2027 and fixed plant overhead is absorbed.1,6
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Direct Dealer Distribution Network — Generac's exclusive network of over 8,500 certified residential dealers drives $2,266.91M in residential power product sales, creating high local barriers to entry.Wide
02Brand Equity and Pricing Power — Generac sustained a 38.29% gross margin in FY2025, substantially above primary engine competitor Cummins at 25.77%.Moderate
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
Commercial Standby Encroachment by Heavy Industrial Manufacturers
medium
12-24 months
Targeting decentralized commercial microgrids and telecom backup where customized natural gas gensets have an advantage over large diesel units.
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
القيمة العادلة
تغير المدة (سنوات)
-5
-2
0
+2
+5
القيمة العادلة
193.48 US$
193.22 US$
192.98 US$
192.76 US$
192.47 US$
مدة الميزة التنافسية: 5 سنوات في الحالة الأساسية المميزة. تبقى الافتراضات الأخرى ثابتة.
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($192.98). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $320.9M after modeled reinvestment of $0, with terminal value at 39.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Commercial and industrial power products sustain double-digit growth
The Base scenario projects steady post-destocking normalization as dealer inventories align with retail demand. Operating margins expand toward historical averages as higher volume absorbs fixed overhead, supporting intrinsic value reaching $192.98 with an estimated probability of 60.0% and an expected return of -7.0% relative to $207.44. This path would be confirmed by quarterly shipments meeting consensus expectations and disconfirmed by renewed dealer order pauses.
Maintain Hold; Maintain existing position sizing and review quarterly progress in commercial power lines.
المُحفِّز: Shipments and operating margins track consensus expectations, confirming steady progress along the post-destocking normalization path.
Results in line with expectations support the projected recovery path toward $192.98, keeping risk and reward balanced relative to $207.44.
دون التوقعات
Downgrade to Reduce; Re-examine dealer order backlogs, evaluate consumer financing headwinds, and consider trimming position exposure.
المُحفِّز: Shipments miss consensus targets and operating margins contract due to severe weather lulls or extended dealer ordering pauses.
A material shortfall reveals operating deleverage and softer consumer demand, expanding downside risk relative to $207.44.
جودة الأرباح
Earnings quality is solid, characterized by operating cash flow substantially exceeding reported net income as excess channel inventory was converted into cash. Positive free cash flow generation throughout the downcycle indicates that revenue reflects genuine customer collections rather than extended payment terms or deferred costs.
المقاييس التي يجب مراقبتها قبل الإعلان
01
المقياس:
Residential Standby Generator Shipments
الحاليNormalizing after dealer inventory digestion, with second-half shipments tracking seasonal weather activity.
لماذا يهم
Residential units generate the bulk of company sales and profit; expanding shipments verify consumer demand recovery, while slower orders cause factory underutilization.
Generac generated $437.98M in operating cash flow in FY2025, which after $169.85M in capital expenditures yielded $268.13M of free cash flow. Operating cash flow covered net income of $159.55M by 2.75x, demonstrating strong cash generation through channel inventory liquidation.5,6
تخصيص رأس المال
Capital allocation emphasizes share repurchases and debt management. In FY2025, Generac deployed $147.92M toward buybacks, reducing diluted shares from 62.06M in FY2023 to 59.28M in FY2025. Total debt stood at $1,333.07M with cash of $341.41M, keeping debt manageable while supporting steady per-share compounding.
Current ROIC of 6.14% is below WACC of 10.32%, reflecting trough cyclical conditions. Economic value creation will resume as operating margins surpass 10.0%.
أحدث إيرادات4.2 مليار US$معدل النمو السنوي المركب للإيرادات +12.6%
هامش التشغيل6.9%10 فترات مالية
أحدث تدفق نقدي حر268.1 مليون US$FY2025
صافي الدين991.7 مليون US$FY2025
تفصيل قائمة الدخلكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.30 يونيو 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
الإيرادات1.2 مليار US$تكلفة الإيرادات−651.7 مليون US$إجمالي الربح521.8 مليون US$المصروفات التشغيلية−311.4 مليون US$الدخل التشغيلي210.4 مليون US$البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب−67.2 مليون US$صافي الدخل143.2 مليون US$
بيانات التاريخ المالي
الإيرادات
1,173,510,000 US$
تكلفة الإيرادات
651,699,000 US$
إجمالي الربح
521,811,000 US$
المصروفات التشغيلية
311,378,000 US$
الدخل التشغيلي
210,433,000 US$
البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب
-67,189,000 US$
صافي الدخل
143,244,000 US$
لمحة عن الميزانية العموميةكيفية الاحتفاظ بالأصول المُبلغ عنها وتمويلها في الفترة المحددة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تكوين الأصولمصادر التمويل
إجمالي الأصول5.6 مليار US$النقد341.4 مليون US$الأصول المتداولة2.5 مليار US$إجمالي الالتزامات2.9 مليار US$الالتزامات المتداولة1.2 مليار US$حقوق المساهمين2.6 مليار US$
بيانات تفصيل الميزانية العمومية
إجمالي الأصول
5,573,679,000 US$
النقد
341,413,000 US$
الأصول المتداولة
2,462,478,000 US$
إجمالي الالتزامات
2,934,633,000 US$
الالتزامات المتداولة
1,215,346,000 US$
حقوق المساهمين
2,638,304,000 US$
جسر التدفق النقديكيف تحول التدفق النقدي التشغيلي إلى تدفق نقدي حر في FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تسوية التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
صافي الدخل159.6 مليون US$الإهلاك والإطفاء+194.8 مليون US$التعويض القائم على الأسهم+49.9 مليون US$تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى+33.6 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي438 مليون US$
تسوية النقد من بداية الفترة إلى نهايتها
النقد في بداية الفترة281.3 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي+438 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الاستثماري−172.9 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التمويلي−212.7 مليون US$تأثير سعر الصرف+7.8 مليون US$النقد في نهاية الفترة341.4 مليون US$
438 مليون US$ − 169.9 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الحر 268.1 مليون US$
بيانات جسر التدفق النقدي
صافي الدخل
159,554,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل
437,978,000 US$
الإهلاك والإطفاء
194,835,000 US$
التعويض القائم على الأسهم
49,947,000 US$
تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى
33,642,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
437,978,000 US$
النقد المتاح
727,036,000 US$
النقد في بداية الفترة
281,277,000 US$
تأثير سعر الصرف
7,781,000 US$
التدفق الاستثماري الخارج
172,904,000 US$
النفقات الرأسمالية
169,850,000 US$
أنشطة استثمارية أخرى
3,054,000 US$
التدفق التمويلي الخارج
212,719,000 US$
إعادة شراء الأسهم
147,917,000 US$
أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة
293,000 US$
صافي سداد الدين
47,486,000 US$
أنشطة تمويلية أخرى
17,023,000 US$
النقد في نهاية الفترة
341,413,000 US$
التدفق النقدي الاستثماري
-172,904,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التمويلي
-212,719,000 US$
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمالالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2025-12-31.
4.2 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمالالحصة
Residential Power Products2.3 مليار US$53.9%−6.8% على أساس سنوي
Commercial And Industrial Power Products1.5 مليار US$34.6%+4.9% على أساس سنوي
Other Products And Services484.9 مليون US$11.5%+2.5% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-02-18 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمال
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمال
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
Residential Power Products
2.3 مليار US$
53.9%
-6.8%
Commercial And Industrial Power Products
1.5 مليار US$
34.6%
4.9%
Other Products And Services
484.9 مليون US$
11.5%
2.5%
الإيرادات والأرباحكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
النقد والدينالسيولة المتاحة مقارنة بإجمالي الاقتراض.
توليد النقدالتدفق النقدي التشغيلي مقارنة بالتدفق النقدي الحر.
Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) trades at 17.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 21.0x compares with a peer median of 15.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: GE Vernova Inc., Cummins Inc., Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. and Emerson Electric Co., as of 2026-09-20.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Contraction
Machinery industry capex to revenue is 4.10% and capex to depreciation is 0.68, while Generac capex was $169.85M in FY2025 on $4,209.15M revenue.6
دورة صعودية
Accelerating power grid unreliability, recurring major storm outages, and rising edge computing power needs drive residential standby penetration and commercial microgrid adoption.
دورة هبوطية
Multi-year periods of mild weather, high consumer interest rates for home improvement loans, and aggressive commercial bidding by diversified engine manufacturers restrict equipment shipments.
الاتجاهات طويلة الأمد
الاتجاه
التأثير
ملاحظة
Grid Vulnerability and Severe Storms
positive
Aging electrical infrastructure and frequent extreme weather events increase household awareness and demand for on-site backup power.
Decentralized Commercial Microgrids
positive
Electrification and edge facility requirements drive commercial adoption of modular backup generation.
High Financing Rates on Big-Ticket Purchases
negative
Elevated consumer interest rates increase financing costs for home standby generator installations.
التموضع
Generac is the clear leader in residential standby power with over 70% share, while operating as an agile challenger in commercial and industrial standby against Cummins.3
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
2-3%
With the house rating set at Hold and shares trading close to our $192.98 Fair value, we recommend an existing allocation of 2-3% of portfolio equity, avoiding fresh capital additions until a wider margin of safety emerges.
المخاطر
Position risk management emphasizes dealer inventory weeks-on-hand and weather outage patterns. Exposure should remain moderate until quarterly operating margins demonstrate consistent expansion above 10.0%.
شرائح الدخول
المستوى
إجراء
لماذا
Below $170.00
Initial Addition
Offers an entry point at a meaningful discount to our $192.98 Fair value, providing a favorable margin of safety.
Downgrade recommendation to Reduce and lower normalized operating margin assumption below 10.0%.
operating_margin
Below 6.00% in any reported quarter
§12 وجهات نظر المستثمرينEN
Base Case
Hold
With Generac trading at $207.44 as of September 18, 2026, shares stand 7.5% above our Fair value of $192.98. Post-destocking volume recovery is progressing, but balanced valuation and cyclical storm dependency warrant a Hold.4
Bull Perspective
Buy
Investors anticipating severe storm seasons and accelerated commercial microgrid adoption could see operating margins rebound toward peak levels of 17%+, driving valuation toward our Potential value of $219.88.
Bear Perspective
Avoid
The bear perspective identifies prolonged mild weather and high consumer interest rates as the key trigger, which would prolong channel inventory destocking, suppress factory overhead absorption below 6.00% operating margin, and trigger an estimated 45.7% fair-value reduction.6
§14 التوصية النهائيةEN
إجراء
احتفاظ
We recommend holding Generac Holdings Inc. at $207.44 as of September 18, 2026. Shares trade 7.5% above our Fair value estimate of $192.98, balancing multi-year post-destocking volume recovery against cyclical storm vulnerability.4
Investors should maintain current portfolio weightings between 2% and 3% and refrain from adding fresh capital until a wider margin of safety emerges below $170.00, or until quarterly shipments confirm sustained operating margin expansion above 10.0%.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
ملاحظات خاصة
مرئية لك وحدك. محفوظة على هذا الجهاز.
لا أحرف
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Macroeconomic weakness and consumer financing drag cause severe top-line revenue shortfall
House forecast expects 17.35% revenue growth in FY2026 and 21.86% in FY2027 toward $6,019.19M. Missing FY2026 growth by 10 percentage points (falling below 7.35%) results in an estimated fair-value impact of -9.7%.1
FV impact
-9.7%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Multiple derating as market re-evaluates Generac as a cyclical capital goods manufacturer
Forward earnings models assume a 21.16x terminal multiple, whereas peer Cummins trades at 15.43x forward P/E. A 20% multiple derating to 16.93x results in an estimated fair-value impact of -5.0%.3
FV impact
-5%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Elevated cost of capital driven by high beta and higher-for-longer refinancing costs
Generac carries a raw beta of 1.8393 and total debt of $1,333.07M. An increase in WACC from 10.32% to 12.32% results in an estimated fair-value impact of -13.5%.2,4
The Bull scenario reflects widespread electrical grid disruptions, severe weather events, and strong demand for edge data center backup that accelerate residential generator penetration. Operating margins approach prior cycle highs, lifting intrinsic value toward $219.88 with an estimated probability of 20.0% and an expected return of 6.0% relative to $207.44. This path would be confirmed by sustained double-digit shipment growth across consecutive quarters.
Factory overhead is mostly fixed; rising shipment volume expands margins, while manufacturing curtailments cause sharp margin compression.
الحاليHolding stable at healthy premium levels above broad machinery peers.
لماذا يهم
Maintaining a gross margin premium over industrial equipment peers demonstrates brand equity and dealer loyalty; discounting would indicate moat erosion.
04
المقياس:
Commercial and Industrial Power Sales
الحاليAdvancing steadily supported by orders across telecom, edge computing, and decentralized power projects.
لماذا يهم
Growth in telecom backup, commercial facilities, and microgrids diversifies revenue away from volatile residential storm cycles.
05
المقياس:
Share Repurchase Pace
الحاليContinuing to decline as free cash flow is deployed into ongoing share buybacks.
