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LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $133, high $237, with mid-point at $183.
Stock analysis

LRCX Lam Research Corporation fair value $183–$237

LRCX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تم التحليل: 2026-05-08التحديث التالي: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNASDAQ · Information Technology
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السعر
$295.15
▼ -111.67 (-37.84%)
القيمة العادلة
$183
$183–$237
التصنيف
بيع
confidence 87/100
إمكانية الصعود
-37.8%
upside to fair value
هامش الأمان
$155.96
buy below · 15%
القيمة السوقية
$369.1B
P/E fwd 37.3
المصدر الإنجليزيAR
يتم عرض المصدر الإنجليزي أثناء الترجمة
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.

§1 الملخص التنفيذي

  • Composite fair value $183 with high case $237.
  • Implied downside of 37.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$183
Margin of safety
-60.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$295.16Price
FV $183.48
High $237.3

LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Bull thesis
    Consensus target of $310.47 relies on ungrounded perpetual multiple expansion.

§2 السيناريو الهبوطي

A severe stress test incorporating a 30% reduction to next-year consensus revenue and structurally lower terminal margins drops fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. toward the $130 level. This highlights the extreme fragility of the current high multiples assigned by the market, which completely ignore inherent downcycle risks.

كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة

Prolonged Memory Downturn

· Medium

Extended reduction in NAND and DRAM capex significantly depresses equipment sales and margins beyond modeled downcycle parameters.

FV impact
Downside to $132.71
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Export Controls

Low-Medium· Low

Complete ban on trailing-edge and advanced equipment sales to China abruptly eliminates a major high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
Downside below $100.00
Trigger
6-12 months

Advanced Packaging Share Loss

· Low

Competitors dominate next-generation advanced packaging and gate-all-around deposition transitions, permanently eroding Lam's market share.

FV impact
Downside to $150.00
Trigger
36-48 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياسالحاليحد التشغيل
Deceleration in deferred revenue growth or service attach rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major memory customers aggressively cutting near-term capex guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Ramp-up in export restriction rhetoric from the US government.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Margin compression signaling price competition in trailing-edge tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising inventory days signaling a severe industry downcycle.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 التاريخ المالي

بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات
البندT−0T−1T−2T−3معدل النمو السنوي المركب
الفترة2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
الإيرادات$17.23B$17.43B$14.91B$18.44B+2.3%
إجمالي الربح$7.87B$7.78B$7.05B$8.98B+4.5%
الدخل التشغيلي$5.38B$5.22B$4.28B$5.90B+3.1%
صافي الدخل$4.61B$4.51B$3.83B$5.36B+5.2%
EPS (مخفف)$3.28$3.32$2.90$4.15+8.2%
EBITDA$5.71B$5.64B$4.91B$6.52B+4.5%
البحث والتطوير$1.60B$1.73B$1.90B$2.10B+9.3%
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية$885.7M$832.8M$868.2M$981.7M+3.5%

درجات الجودة

درجة Piotroski F
8 / 9
مركب جودة 0–9
درجة Altman Z
23.45
مخاطر الإفلاس (>3 آمن)
درجة Beneish M
-2.36
مخاطر التلاعب بالأرباح
OCF / صافي الدخل
1.15×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Pass
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
33.8%
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
القسم 3

Numbers analysis

تخصيص رأس المال

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

المشتركون الأفراد — من §4 فصاعداً11 قسماً إضافياً

اقرأ التحليل الكامل — 11 قسماً إضافياً.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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أرشيف تصنيفات 24 شهراً
إيجازات قائمة المراقبة + تنبيهات تغيير التصنيف
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FAQ

LRCX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LRCX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $295 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $183 (range $133–$237), which implies roughly 37.8% downside to the midpoint.

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