تحليلات المنتج الاختيارية
بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Long-term ARR acceleration from accelerated customer migration to Windchill+ SaaS, accompanied by increased attach rates of Onshape cloud CAD and AI-powered supply intelligence modules across Arena and ServiceMax.
European annual revenue growth contracting below -5% YoY or GAAP operating margin declining below 32.80%.
PTC Inc. combines exceptional business quality, high customer switching costs, and 94.94% recurring revenue with scalable operating margins, yet the stock trades at an unsustainable 29.02% premium to intrinsic Fair value, compelling a Sell recommendation.
PTC is a premier software franchise that has successfully engineered a multi-year transition toward an asset-light, subscription-dominated business model. In FY2025, recurring revenue reached $2,600.51M, representing 94.94% of total revenue ($2,739.23M). The deep architectural embedding of Windchill in product lifecycle management and Creo in computer-aided design generates formidable customer switching barriers, evidenced by better-than-anticipated retention rates supporting management's 9.0% to 9.5% ARR guidance. expanded to $982.39M in FY2025, establishing an of 35.86% and outpacing design software peer Autodesk's 29.23% operating margin.
The company's financial model converts revenue into unencumbered cash generation with minimal tangible capital needs. With FY2025 capital expenditures of only $11.01M (0.40% of revenue), operating cash flow of $867.70M yielded $856.69M in free cash flow. Management has directed this cash generation toward aggressive capital returns, targeting $1.63B in FY2026 share buybacks, which repurchased $525M in Q3 2026 alone and will decrease diluted shares to ~116 million from 120.78M in FY2025. This capital allocation policy comfortably offsets annual stock-based compensation expense ($216.21M in FY2025) and bolsters per-share compounding.567
Despite these exceptional business attributes, current equity valuation has outpaced fundamental reality. At $194.45 as of October 9, 2026, the stock trades at a 29.02% premium to fundamental Fair value of $150.71. Our Fair value also sits 17.7% below the present-value equivalent of the analyst consensus 12-month target of $183.17 (discounted from $201.00 at Ke 9.74%). Current market pricing implies 13.55% annual growth over 10 years, compared to sustainable fundamental growth of 7.82%. With Europe accounting for 36.33% of revenue ($995.09M) and facing industrial capex headwinds, alongside Autodesk's faster 13.0% forward expansion, risk is heavily skewed toward multiple de-rating. We issue a Sell rating.1348
Core CAD configurations in Creo and complex multi-level product data structures in Windchill are embedded across manufacturing assembly lines and supply chains, resulting in 94.94% recurring revenue ($2,600.51M in FY2025) and high renewal rates. Replacing these platforms entails prohibitive re-tooling costs, data translation risks, and workforce retraining.58
PTC connects product lifecycle management (Windchill, Arena) directly with CAD (Creo, Onshape) and field service (ServiceMax), enabling enterprise customers to consolidate fragmented software stacks onto PTC's architecture. Proprietary geometry kernels, compliance tracking frameworks, and data schemas create formidable intellectual property barriers against new entrants.5
An installed base distributed across the Americas ($1,327.23M in FY2025), Europe ($995.09M), and Asia Pacific ($416.90M) creates powerful network barriers as global supply chain partners standardize on PTC formats. This widespread adoption facilitates cross-selling of Arena supply chain intelligence and ServiceMax field service software.58
Sell. PTC is an exceptional software compounder with a Wide moat and 94.94% recurring revenue, but at $194.45 as of October 9, 2026, market pricing embeds growth expectations that disconnect from fundamental reality. Intrinsic Fair value of $150.71 implies -22.49% downside return, offering an unfavorable risk-reward profile and warranting capital reallocation.38
PTC Inc. is a global enterprise software company providing computer-aided design (CAD), product lifecycle management (PLM), service lifecycle management (SLM), and industrial software solutions. The company's core software offerings include Windchill and Arena for PLM, Creo and Onshape for CAD, and ServiceMax for service lifecycle execution.
In FY2025, PTC generated $2,739.23M in total revenue, comprising $1,741.31M (63.57%) in PLM software and $997.92M (36.43%) in CAD software. Recurring services revenue constituted $2,600.51M, or 94.94% of total revenue, reflecting a fully transitioned subscription and SaaS model.
PTC serves discrete manufacturing leaders across aerospace, defense, automotive, industrial machinery, and medical devices. Geographically, revenue is distributed across the Americas ($1,327.23M, 48.45%), Europe ($995.09M, 36.33%), and Asia Pacific ($416.90M, 15.22%).
A severe stress event combining persistent European industrial manufacturing contraction (-5.0% annual revenue growth), aggressive competitive price discounting from Autodesk and Dassault that reduces GAAP operating margins to 32.80%, and a 200 bps macroeconomic yield expansion taking WACC to 11.37% would impair cash flows across all operating segments. Under these concurrent shocks, intrinsic equity value drops to the stress floor of $121.62 per share. From the share price of $194.45 as of October 9, 2026, this downside stress case implies a 37.45% capital loss. Even with 94.94% recurring revenue, equity valuation remains exposed to multiple compression and discount rate volatility when priced at a 29.02% premium to fundamental Fair value.
Europe generated $995.09M (36.33%) of FY2025 revenue. A sustained contraction in European automotive and industrial manufacturing would freeze software expansion and push consolidated revenue growth down by 500 bps over 5 years, driving an estimated 24.5% fair value reduction.8
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
Indicates severe European industrial and automotive manufacturing stagnation freezing new CAD/PLM seat expansions and impairing global ARR momentum.
الحالي:36.33% of FY2025 revenue ($995.09M)
تنبيه إذاAnnual revenue contraction below -5.0% YoY
PTC possesses a Wide economic moat anchored by deep customer switching costs and proprietary software architecture across Computer Aided Design (CAD) and Product Lifecycle Management (PLM). In FY2025, recurring services revenue accounted for $2,600.51M, or 94.94% of total revenue ($2,739.23M). PLM software represented $1,741.31M (63.57%) and CAD represented $997.92M (36.43%), establishing dominant positioning across discrete manufacturing industries.
The durability of PTC's moat arises from the immense operational friction of replacing core product engineering platforms. Customers utilize Windchill to govern product development histories, engineering change orders, regulatory compliance, and multi-tier bills of materials, while Creo serves as the primary authoring environment for complex 3D geometry. Migrating away from this integrated environment exposes industrial enterprises to engineering downtime, data loss, and supply chain disruptions. As noted by management, customers increasingly consolidate CAD and PLM onto PTC because of integrated capabilities and an advanced AI roadmap, sustaining retention rates that outperform initial guidance.
This platform stickiness generates exceptional profitability and capital efficiency. In FY2025, PTC delivered GAAP operating income of $982.39M, achieving an operating margin of 35.86% and gross profit of $2,294.24M (83.76% gross margin). This profitability exceeds peer Autodesk's 29.23% operating margin. Furthermore, because capital expenditures were only $11.01M (0.40% of revenue), operating cash flow of $867.70M converted into $856.69M of free cash flow. While the moat is wide and durable, investors must distinguish business quality from equity valuation: a wide moat does not insulate the stock from multiple compression when priced at a 29.02% premium to fundamental Fair value.
PTC generates an estimated ROIC of 15.37%, which provides a positive economic spread of +6.00 percentage points over the computed WACC of 9.37% and +5.63 percentage points over the cost of equity of 9.74%. This spread demonstrates sustained economic profit generation supported by high switching costs and asset-light operations.1
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($150.71). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $751.6M after modeled reinvestment of $31.3M, with terminal value at 78.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Under the base case, PTC achieves steady mid-single-digit revenue growth and operating margin expansion across its recurring software portfolio, supporting a target price of $150.71 with an assigned probability of 60.0%, representing an implied return of -22.5% from $194.45. Windchill and Creo deployments deliver high contract renewal rates, while Arena and Onshape drive gradual cloud expansion. Consistent cash flow generation funds continued share repurchases that enhance per-share earnings growth. Even with sound operational execution, however, the target price aligns with Fair value of $150.71, indicating that the market price reflects an unsustainable premium.
If reported results exceed guidance boundaries driven by accelerating ARR additions, faster Windchill+ migrations, and operating margin expansion, fundamental earnings power would track toward Potential value of $179.38. However, because $194.45 stands at a substantial premium above Fair value of $150.71, any rating adjustment would be measured.
Meeting performance targets within guided ranges confirms steady business execution but leaves the share price at an unwarranted premium to Fair value of $150.71. Intrinsic value remains anchored below $194.45.
A failure to meet guided targets caused by European capex slowdown or competitive discounting would validate core downside risks and accelerate multiple compression toward Fair value of $150.71.
PTC exhibits sound earnings quality characterized by strong cash conversion from operating income to free cash flow, minimal capital expenditure requirements, and a high proportion of recurring subscription revenue. Working capital requirements remain stable without significant inventory or receivables buildup, and deferred revenue balances provide forward visibility. The principal earnings quality consideration remains the scale of stock-based compensation, which is actively offset through cash share repurchases funded by operating cash generation.
Consensus analyst estimate revisions following recent quarterly disclosures have remained flat across both revenue and diluted earnings per share expectations for the forward fiscal year. Revisions reflect management guidance updates that balance sustained demand capture and share repurchases against deliberate customer pilot cycles for newer software modules.
PTC demonstrates extraordinary cash generation supported by low capital requirements and high subscription renewal rates. In FY2025, operating cash flow of $867.70M converted into $856.69M of free cash flow, representing a 98.73% conversion rate, as capital expenditures were limited to $11.01M (0.40% of revenue). This performance continued into FY2026, with Q3 YTD operating cash flow of $851.29M and YTD free cash flow of $835.0M on YTD capex of $16.29M. Stock-based compensation of $216.21M in FY2025 (7.89% of revenue) is more than offset by cash repurchases ($1.63B guided in FY2026). Recurring software collections protect working capital, driving sustainable equity cash flows.5
PTC's ROIC of 15.37% reflects high software scalability, minimal capex ($11.01M in FY2025), and operating margins that expanded from 3.59% in FY2017 to 35.86% in FY2025. High contract retention in CAD and PLM sustains robust economic returns on invested capital.
ROIC of 15.37% generates an economic spread of +6.00 percentage points above computed WACC of 9.37% and +5.63 percentage points above cost of equity of 9.74%.
In FY2025, operating cash flow of $867.70M converted into $856.69M of free cash flow, as were limited to $11.01M (0.40% of ).
| الإيرادات | 2,739,226,000 US$ |
|---|---|
| تكلفة الإيرادات | 444,983,000 US$ |
| إجمالي الربح | 2,294,243,000 US$ |
| المصروفات التشغيلية | 1,311,858,000 US$ |
| الدخل التشغيلي | 982,385,000 US$ |
| البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب | -248,388,000 US$ |
| صافي الدخل | 733,997,000 US$ |
| إجمالي الأصول | 6,617,172,000 US$ |
|---|---|
| النقد | 184,415,000 US$ |
| الأصول المتداولة | 1,383,367,000 US$ |
| إجمالي الالتزامات | 2,790,943,000 US$ |
| الالتزامات المتداولة | 1,237,404,000 US$ |
| حقوق المساهمين | 3,826,229,000 US$ |
| صافي الدخل | 733,997,000 US$ |
|---|---|
| التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل | 1,052,706,000 US$ |
| الإهلاك والإطفاء | 102,504,000 US$ |
| التعويض القائم على الأسهم | 216,205,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي التشغيلي | 867,696,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الخارج | 185,010,000 US$ |
| النقد المتاح | 1,134,162,000 US$ |
| النقد في بداية الفترة | 266,466,000 US$ |
| التدفق الاستثماري الخارج | 38,293,000 US$ |
| النفقات الرأسمالية | 11,008,000 US$ |
| أنشطة استثمارية أخرى | 27,285,000 US$ |
| التدفق التمويلي الخارج | 908,509,000 US$ |
| إعادة شراء الأسهم | 299,998,000 US$ |
| صافي سداد الدين | 552,958,000 US$ |
| أنشطة تمويلية أخرى | 55,553,000 US$ |
| تأثير سعر الصرف | 2,372,000 US$ |
| النقد في نهاية الفترة | 184,988,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي الاستثماري | -38,293,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي التمويلي | -908,509,000 US$ |
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2025-11-21 · SEC EDGAR
| الإيرادات حسب المنطقة | الإيرادات | الحصة | على أساس سنوي |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | 1.3 مليار US$ | 48.5% | 22% |
| Europe | 995.1 مليون US$ | 36.3% | 15.8% |
| Asia Pacific | 416.9 مليون US$ | 15.2% | 18.7% |
البيانات المالية في نقطة زمنية المستخدمة في تحليل 2026-10-10.
| الفترة | الإيرادات | EBITDA | صافي الدخل | التدفق النقدي التشغيلي | التدفق النقدي الحر | النفقات الرأسمالية | الإهلاك والإطفاء | التعويض القائم على الأسهم | إعادة شراء الأسهم | أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة | صافي إصدار الدين | التدفق النقدي الاستثماري | التدفق النقدي التمويلي | النقد في بداية الفترة | النقد في نهاية الفترة | النقد والاستثمارات | إجمالي الديون | الهامش التشغيلي | ROIC | WACC | فارق ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-09-30 | 1.2 مليار US$ | 127.7 مليون US$ | 6.2 مليون US$ | 135.2 مليون US$ | 109.8 مليون US$ | 25.4 مليون US$ | 86.7 مليون US$ | 76.7 مليون US$ | 51 مليون US$ | 0 US$ | — | -16.1 مليون US$ | -118.1 مليون US$ | 279.2 مليون US$ | 281.2 مليون US$ | 330.3 مليون US$ | 712.4 مليون US$ | 3.6% | — | 7.5% | — |
| 2018-09-30 | 1.2 مليار US$ | 157.7 مليون US$ | 52 مليون US$ | 247.8 مليون US$ | 211.7 مليون US$ | 36 مليون US$ | 87.4 مليون US$ | 82.9 مليون US$ | 1.1 مليار US$ | 250 مليون US$ | — | -49.2 مليون US$ | -210.8 مليون US$ | 281.2 مليون US$ | 261.1 مليون US$ | 285.8 مليون US$ | 643.3 مليون US$ | 5.8% | — | 7.6% | — |
| 2019-09-30 | 1.3 مليار US$ | 141.2 مليون US$ | -27.5 مليون US$ | 285.1 مليون US$ | 220.7 مليون US$ | 64.4 مليون US$ | 77.8 مليون US$ | 86.4 مليون US$ | 115 مليون US$ | 205 مليون US$ | — | -150 مليون US$ | -123 مليون US$ | 261.1 مليون US$ | 270.7 مليون US$ | 297.5 مليون US$ | 669.1 مليون US$ | 5.0% | — | 6.5% | — |
| 2020-09-30 | 1.5 مليار US$ | 330.6 مليون US$ | 130.7 مليون US$ | 233.8 مليون US$ | 213.6 مليون US$ | 20.2 مليون US$ | 80.8 مليون US$ | 115.1 مليون US$ | 0 US$ | 33.7 مليون US$ | — | -526 مليون US$ | 297.4 مليون US$ | 270.7 مليون US$ | 276 مليون US$ | 303.6 مليون US$ | 1 مليار US$ | 14.5% | — | 5.6% | — |
| 2021-09-30 | 1.8 مليار US$ | 564.8 مليون US$ | 476.9 مليون US$ | 368.8 مليون US$ | 344.1 مليون US$ | 24.7 مليون US$ | 85.2 مليون US$ | 177.3 مليون US$ | 30 مليون US$ | 600.4 مليون US$ | — | -687.9 مليون US$ | 370.3 مليون US$ | 276 مليون US$ | 327 مليون US$ | 326.5 مليون US$ | 1.4 مليار US$ | 21.1% | — | 6.5% | — |
| 2022-09-30 | 1.9 مليار US$ | 573.4 مليون US$ | 313.1 مليون US$ | 435.3 مليون US$ | 415.8 مليون US$ | 19.5 مليون US$ | 87.7 مليون US$ | 174.9 مليون US$ | 125 مليون US$ | — | -91.3 مليون US$ | -201.2 مليون US$ | -264.1 مليون US$ | 327 مليون US$ | 272.9 مليون US$ | 272.2 مليون US$ | 1.4 مليار US$ | 23.1% | — | 8.6% | — |
| 2023-09-30 | 2.1 مليار US$ | 599.1 مليون US$ | 245.5 مليون US$ | 610.9 مليون US$ | 587 مليون US$ | 23.8 مليون US$ | 104.8 مليون US$ | 206.5 مليون US$ | 0 US$ | 82.4 مليون US$ | 343 مليون US$ | -866.1 مليون US$ | 268.3 مليون US$ | 272.9 مليون US$ | 288.8 مليون US$ | 288.1 مليون US$ | 1.7 مليار US$ | 21.9% | — | 9.4% | — |
| 2024-09-30 | 2.3 مليار US$ | 730 مليون US$ | 376.3 مليون US$ | 750 مليون US$ | 735.6 مليون US$ | 14.4 مليون US$ | 108.1 مليون US$ | 223.5 مليون US$ | 0 US$ | — | 45.9 مليون US$ | -124.8 مليون US$ | -650.7 مليون US$ | 288.8 مليون US$ | 266.5 مليون US$ | 436.7 مليون US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 25.6% | — | 8.8% | — |
| 2025-09-30 | 2.7 مليار US$ | 1.1 مليار US$ | 734 مليون US$ | 867.7 مليون US$ | 856.7 مليون US$ | 11 مليون US$ | 102.5 مليون US$ | 216.2 مليون US$ | 300 مليون US$ | — | -553 مليون US$ | -38.3 مليون US$ | -908.5 مليون US$ | 266.5 مليون US$ | 185 مليون US$ | 184.4 مليون US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 35.9% | — | 9.0% | — |
PTC Inc. (PTC) trades at 16.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 17.5x compares with a peer median of 17.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Roper Technologies Inc., Paychex Inc., Workday Inc. and Autodesk Inc., as of 2026-10-07 to 2026-10-10.
Software industry benchmarks reflect an average capex-to-revenue ratio of 17.8% and capex-to-depreciation of 2.45x, indicating significant infrastructure and hosting reinvestment across technology peers. In contrast, PTC's pure-software model operates with an extremely modest capex requirement of just $11.01M on $2,739.23M revenue in FY2025 (0.40% capex-to-revenue). Because specific sector lead-time, physical capacity, and customer concentration figures are unavailable, the industry cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.7
In an industrial expansion, manufacturing enterprises accelerate digital thread initiatives, connecting CAD design geometry with PLM, ERP, and shop-floor IoT systems to shorten development cycles and integrate supplier networks. This environment drives multi-product consolidations onto Windchill and Arena, raising recurring contract values.
In an industrial downcycle, manufacturing enterprises freeze IT software expansion, postpone on-premise to cloud SaaS migrations, and consolidate seat counts. Because Europe represents 36.33% of PTC's revenue ($995.09M in FY2025), severe weakness in European automotive and machinery production elongates enterprise sales cycles and slows net ARR expansion.
PTC maintains a top-tier competitive position in discrete manufacturing CAD and PLM, commanding 94.94% recurring revenue and a 35.86% operating margin ($982.39M operating income), which exceeds peer Autodesk's 29.23% operating margin. However, Autodesk exhibits faster forward top-line growth of 13.0%, positioning PTC as a mature, highly profitable cash generator rather than a rapid volume grower.2478
Under a Sell rating, zero portfolio weighting is warranted. The market price of $194.45 as of October 9, 2026 stands 29.02% above fundamental Fair value ($150.71) and 8.40% above Potential value ($179.38). Capital should be preserved and reallocated toward mispriced assets offering favorable margins of safety.3
Capital preservation is paramount. PTC is an exceptional franchise, but overpaying for high-quality software compounders creates severe duration and multiple contraction risk. With equity trading 29.02% above Fair value ($150.71) and 8.40% above Potential value ($179.38), existing investors should eliminate equity exposure. Portfolio managers should reallocate capital toward mispriced assets with positive margin-of-safety characteristics.
From a fundamental valuation standpoint, PTC's share price of $194.45 as of October 9, 2026 exceeds Fair value ($150.71) by 29.02% and sits 6.16% above the present-value equivalent of sell-side consensus ($183.17). Multiples of 16.26x forward earnings are extended relative to peers like Roper (14.93x) and Workday (13.92x), leaving valuation vulnerable to multiple compression.23
Even investors focused on PTC's Wide moat and 94.94% recurring revenue must recognize that the stock trades above the Potential value ceiling of $179.38. Paying a 29.02% premium over fair value eliminates prospective equity compounding over the next 3 to 5 years, making new capital deployment unrewarding.8
Capital preservation demands avoiding PTC due to downside vulnerability if European manufacturing weakness (-5.0% YoY) and CAD pricing competition with Autodesk reduce operating margins to 32.80%. Existing positions should be liquidated to protect capital.27
We initiate coverage on PTC Inc. with a Sell rating based on a fundamental Fair value midpoint of $150.71 per share. At $194.45 as of October 9, 2026, the shares trade at an implied return of -22.49% and a 29.02% premium to Fair value.3
While PTC is an exceptional franchise with a Wide economic moat, 94.94% recurring revenue, and disciplined capital return, the equity trades above even our most optimistic Potential value estimate of $179.38, offering negative risk-adjusted expected returns.
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
In the bear case, macroeconomic headwinds in European industrial manufacturing and elongated enterprise sales cycles dampen software seat additions and slow ARR expansion. Increased pricing pressure from computer-aided design competitors forces discounting during enterprise renewals, compressing operating margins and delaying cloud migration timelines. With top-line growth decelerating and cost of capital expanding, valuation multiples de-rate toward mature peer levels. While the specific downside target and probability are addressed in the dedicated bear-case analysis, this path highlights the vulnerability of the equity when trading at a premium to Fair value.
Autodesk commands a 29.23% operating margin with 13% forward growth. If Autodesk or Dassault cut cloud pricing to displace legacy seats, PTC's operating margin would contract by 300 bps below FY2025's 35.86% level toward 32.80%, driving an estimated 18.2% fair value impairment.247
Computed WACC is currently 9.37% based on a risk-free rate of 5.22%. If macroeconomic yields or beta increase by 200 bps to 11.37% (approaching sector levered beta of 1.28), enterprise valuation experiences severe discounting, driving an estimated 21.8% fair value reduction.1
PTC's forward P/E is 16.26x, while software peers Roper and Workday trade at 14.93x and 13.92x forward P/E. Growth deceleration would compress terminal multiple by 20% to ~13.2x, causing an estimated 20.0% fair value de-rating.23
Signals price war concessions or aggressive discounting against Autodesk and Dassault in enterprise cloud renewals, eroding core software margins.
الحالي:35.86% in FY2025 ($982.39M operating income on $2,739.23M revenue)
تنبيه إذاSustained operating margin decline below 32.80%
Reflects customer renewal attrition, enterprise seat contractions, or elevated friction in SaaS migrations, damaging moat durability.
الحالي:94.94% of FY2025 revenue ($2,600.51M recurring services)
تنبيه إذاDecline below 90.00% of consolidated revenue
Macro yield surge or equity de-rating substantially increases the discount rate applied to long-dated software cash flows, triggering severe valuation compression.
الحالي:9.37% as of October 10, 2026
تنبيه إذاIncrease above 11.37% (200 bps expansion)
Growth deceleration de-rates terminal multiples toward mature peer levels such as Workday at 13.92x, compounding equity drawdown.
الحالي:16.26x as of October 10, 2026
تنبيه إذاMultiple compression below 13.20x
| Deliberate customer pilot cycles delaying monetization of new AI and supply chain intelligence modules | low | 6-18 months | Providing structured ROI frameworks and modular add-ons that embed within existing Windchill and Arena contracts to drive adoption without requiring massive upfront commitments.5 |
| Industrial manufacturing weakness in Europe suppressing new seat additions and digital transformation budgets | medium | 12-18 months | Broad geographical diversification across Americas (48.45%) and Asia Pacific (15.22%) helps buffer European cyclical exposure.8 |
Under the moderate discount rate, 40.32 US$ comes from forecast-period earnings and 122 US$ from the long-term value, totaling 163 US$.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (29.96 US$) plus discounted terminal value (107 US$) minus signed per current share (9.10 US$) equals the 127 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
In the bull case, accelerated SaaS migrations to Windchill+ and rapid adoption of AI modules across Onshape and ServiceMax drive high-single-digit revenue growth and operating margin expansion, supporting a target price of $179.38 with an assigned probability of 20.0%, representing an implied return of -7.8% from $194.45. Large multi-product enterprise consolidations accelerate displacements of competitor legacy architectures, while aggressive share buybacks further boost diluted earnings per share. This upside path leads to Potential value of $179.38, though achieving it requires execution significantly above historical baseline rates.
Reflects operating leverage and pricing discipline against peers; margin compression would reveal competitive discounting or cost inefficiencies.
Serves as an early warning for macroeconomic industrial capex contraction; a regional downturn directly threatens international ARR expansion.
Confirms whether cash allocation sufficiently absorbs stock-based compensation issuance to drive net per-share earnings compounding.
Validates long-term product modernization and displacement capability against legacy architectures, expanding customer lifetime value.
| $3.15B |
| $3.37B |
| $3.59B |
| Revenue growth | 0.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% |
| Operating margin | 36.0% | 36.5% | 37.0% | 37.5% | 38.0% |
| Operating income | $991.05M | $1.07B | $1.17B | $1.26B | $1.36B |
| Tax rate | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% |
| NOPAT | $782.93M | $845.40M | $921.26M | $999.07M | $1.08B |
| Reinvestment | $31.32M | $33.82M | $36.85M | $39.96M | $43.13M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $751.61M | $811.59M | $884.41M | $959.10M | $1.04B |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
PTC's capital allocation is disciplined and focused almost exclusively on returning capital through share buybacks. In FY2026, management established a full-year share repurchase target of $1.63B, repurchasing $525M of common stock in Q3 2026 alone and guiding diluted shares down to ~116 million compared to 120.78M in FY2025. Total debt stands at $1,607.69M against a market capitalization of $21.12B, resulting in a low debt weight of 7.07%. M&A is restricted to small technology tuck-ins, such as a recent acquisition of a Windchill extension framework to facilitate on-premise to Windchill+ migrations, with no dividend distributions.
Management targeted $1.63B in FY2026 share buybacks, repurchasing $525M in Q3 2026 and guiding diluted shares to ~116 million from 120.78M in FY2025, absorbing FY2025 SBC of $216.21M.
Net share retirement compounds diluted earnings per share at a faster rate than top-line revenue growth.
Recurring services revenue of $2,600.51M accounted for 94.94% of total revenue in FY2025, supporting GAAP operating income of $982.39M (35.86% operating margin) and gross profit of $2,294.24M (83.76% gross margin).
Subscription revenue stability insulates the cost structure from quarterly order timing volatility, securing baseline operating profitability.
| الهامش |
|---|
| PTC | PTC Inc. | $21.1B | 16.3x | 7.2x | 17.5x | 35.1% | — |
| ROP | Roper Technologies Inc. | $36.0B | 14.9x | 4.3x | 14.5x | 13.1% | 27.7% |
| PAYX | Paychex Inc. | $37.0B | 16.3x | 5.6x | 13.3x | 47.1% | 38.5% |
| WDAY | Workday Inc. | $44.4B | 13.9x | 4.4x | 28.2x | 16.0% | 11.8% |
| ADSK | Autodesk Inc. | $49.1B | 16.6x | 6.3x | 20.9x | 53.9% | 29.2% |
| European Industrial Capex Deceleration | negative | Softening automotive and industrial production across Western Europe creates budget friction, slowing new seat expansion and lengthening enterprise procurement approvals across 36.33% of PTC's revenue base. |
| Recurring Revenue Share of Total Revenue | Decline below 90.00% of consolidated revenue | Investigate customer churn and deferred ARR conversion friction in Windchill and Creo accounts; reassess moat durability. |
| Net Diluted Share Count | Diluted share count exceeding 116 million shares | Signals share buybacks failed to reach $1.63B guidance, diluting per-share earnings growth. |
